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2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (1.1)…#13-30

Date:
February 8, 2018 9:00 PM
April 5, 2017 12:07 PM

OK, we’re out of March and into April/NFL Draft month. Once we’re past the basketball tournament, the NFL Draft really starts to gain momentum every day until actual D-Day. The pre-NFL Draft dynasty rookie draft ADPs in early drafts and analyst’s rankings are going to start changing dramatically over the next few weeks, and we’re going to track it right up to the NFL Draft and for weeks after the NFL Draft.

Here’s a look at what we see with the dynasty rookie draft ADPs and rankings in drafts taking place that we’ve been tracking over the past 10 days…

*These are NOT are draft suggestions…no way…our dynasty rookie draft rankings look WAAAYYY different than this. It’s shaping up to be another 2015 — a dynasty rookie draft chocked full of value between picks #10-20 overall. See our NFL Draft and dynasty rookie draft valuations/rankings at College Football Metrics.com

 

OK, we’re out of March and into April/NFL Draft month. Once we’re past the basketball tournament, the NFL Draft really starts to gain momentum every day until actual D-Day. The pre-NFL Draft dynasty rookie draft ADPs in early drafts and analyst’s rankings are going to start changing dramatically over the next few weeks, and we’re going to track it right up to the NFL Draft and for weeks after the NFL Draft.

Here’s a look at what we see with the dynasty rookie draft ADPs and rankings in drafts taking place that we’ve been tracking over the past 10 days…

*These are NOT are draft suggestions…no way…our dynasty rookie draft rankings look WAAAYYY different than this. It’s shaping up to be another 2015 — a dynasty rookie draft chocked full of value between picks #10-20 overall. See our NFL Draft and dynasty rookie draft valuations/rankings at College Football Metrics.com

 

1) RB Dalvin Cook, Florida State

*#1 in 47% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

I am constantly blown away seeing the strong Dalvin Cook momentum is in dynasty rookie drafts. It’s a joke. When he goes in the second round of the draft he’ll start to slide in post-NFL Draft rookie drafts.

 

2) RB Leonard Fournette, LSU

*#1 in 31% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

I thought he’d be the slam dunk #1 guy, but he does not have the edge over Cook coming out of March 2017. Analysts are much higher on Cook than actual drafters, but many drafters are still following the analyst’s advice right now.

 

3) WR Corey Davis, Virginia Tech

*#1 in 15% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

Davis has become the clear #1 WR choice for analysts and dynasty GMs in pre-NFL Draft dynasty rookie drafts. Occasionally Mike Williams or John Ross jump ahead of him but it’s clearly Davis at the top right now.

 

4) WR Mike Williams, Clemson

*#1 in 6% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

There are a few hangers-on to Williams as the top receiver…likely, those who are working with analysts rankings from Jan-Feb.

 

5) RB Joe Mixon, Oklahoma

*#1 in 1% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked in the past 10 days

I think because Mixon’s backstory lends itself to story after story of “When would you draft him?” and constant headlines over what teams he’s visiting with…the mental line of evaluating his talent is getting blurred with media saturation of his name. No one cares what teams visited with Samaje Perine…but anytime Mixon sneezes it is headline news.

 

6) RB Christian McCaffrey, Stanford

McCaffrey is keeping his momentum from his strong NFL Combine.

 

7) WR John Ross, Washington

Every so often you’ll see Ross as the #1 receiver off the dynasty rookie draft board, but more often he is #3. More and more, I am seeing Ross pushed ahead of Mike Williams. It probably won’t be long before Ross and Williams flip places in the overall rookie ADP.

 

8) RB Alvin Kamara, Tennessee

I understand how this is happening. I don’t understand why it is happening.

 

9) RB Samaje Perine, Oklahoma

Perine is moving up from second rounder in the dynasty rookie draft to sudden first rounder. It won’t be long before he is passed by another ‘big back’ in this draft – D’Onta Foreman.

 

10) TE O.J. Howard, Alabama

I thought Howard would track higher than this but between the bias against tight ends in a rookie draft and the low production at Alabama – the excitement is just not there.

 

11) RB D’Onta Foreman, Texas

Those drafting early are ahead of the analysts on this. The analysts are behind on Foreman’s Pro Day work…or are not sure what to do with it. Dynasty GMs are starting to take him top 7-8 more and more while fantasy analysts are ranking him in the second round.

 

12) WR Chris Godwin, Penn State

Godwin is holding his momentum coming out of the NFL Combine. He has a lot of variation…sometimes the #3 WR off the board, sometimes the 8-10th.

 

13) WR Curtis Samuel, Ohio State

The support levels on Samuel are slowly eroding. Some of this is him fading a bit in the draft as well as others starting to move up.

 

14) WR Carlos Henderson, La Tech

He is a draftnik ‘sleeper’ favorite at WR right now…among the non-Corey Davis/Mike Williams/John Ross cluster of WRs. I’m shocked his ADP is running this highly.

 

15) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC

There’s a lot of pent up love for JSS out there. If he lands in a perceived ‘good place’ post-NFL Draft…he’ll zoom into the top 12.

 

16) TE Evan Engram, Ole Miss

I’m surprised Engram is tracking ahead of David Njoku. The analysts like Njoku more, but dynasty GMs are more ‘iffy’ on him. I think Engram could move into the top 12 if he lands in a ‘perceived’ good place. The Jordan Reed comp is a siren call. Read our scouting report at College Football Metrics before you jump!

 

17) TE David Njoku, Miami, Fla

Njoku is probably stuck as the third TE off the dynasty rookie board unless he lands right in the NFL Draft and O.J. Howard and Evan Engram land wrong.

 

18) WR Zay Jones, East Carolina

Jones is still seen as “That guy who caught all those passes in that offense.” Or…”Justin Hardy 2.0″

 

19) WR Malachi Dupre, LSU

I guess the case here is ‘LSU’? I’m shocked he is in the top 24.

 

20) WR Taywan Taylor, W. Kentucky

Carlos Henderson is getting the love over Taylor, among the highly productive Conference USA WR prospects

 

21) QB Deshaun Watson, Clemson

The top quarterback on the ADP listings. The only one in the top 24. Mitchell Trubisky is tracking mid-third round. I don’t know if it’s the Browns’ landing spot possibility or the media negativity…but Trubisky isn’t close to Watson right now.

 

22) WR Cooper Kupp, E. Washington

Glad to see Kupp getting some respect. I don’t think he’ll go much higher than #18-24 range no matter where he lands in the NFL Draft.

 

23) WR Dede Westbrook, Oklahoma

A 4.4 runner with poor agility at 5’11/178 does not get me excited…but apparently, it does for others…

 

24) RB Jeremy McNichols, Boise State

He’s more taken early third-round in rookie drafts but the ADP consolidation puts him #24. The players on the ADP list after him start to get into guys who are sometimes late second, sometimes not even taken among the first 40 players.

 

Rounding out the top 30…

25) TE Bucky Hodges, Virginia Tech

26) RB Marlon Mack, So. Florida

27) WR Ardarius Stewart, Alabama

28) QB Mitch Trubisky, UNC

29) WR Chad Hansen, Cal

30) WR K.D. Cannon, Baylor

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>