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2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (10.0)

Date:
September 2, 2017 6:39 PM
June 23, 2017 11:33 PM

1) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

*#1 in 65% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Fournette has been holding/improving his percentage taken at 1.01 in rookie drafts for several weeks now. He is the one player people are settling in on at the top — and then there is some consternation about whom to take 1.02. Fournette is the clear #1, on average, for now.

 

2) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

*#1 in 22% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

McCaffrey is continuing to make a push towards the 1.01 spot. He has ALL the media momentum with him. One more big media push when camps open…something about him taking snaps as a WR…he’s going to close the gap even more on Fournette. I don’t think he’ll overtake Fournette (on average) but the spread of percentage of being taken #1.01 will close a bunch.

 

3) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee

*#1 in 5% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Davis was losing momentum before this and now with the Eric Decker signing…he’s dropping some more. Joe Mixon is waiting to take this spot.

 

4) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

*#1 in 5% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

The Mixon charge to becoming the most-taken guy at #1.01 is just waiting to happen. It will get lit by some silly camp news…and the three-way dance between Fournette-McCaffrey-Mixon will begin.

 

5) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

*#1 in 3% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Mike Zimmer is going to talk Cook into staying in the top 5…I can’t believe it. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by anything in the NFL anymore.

 

6) WR Mike Williams, San Diego

We live in a world where Tyrell Williams does not exist. You thought there was a 6’3″+/220+ WR who has Julio Jones-like athleticism and posted 1,000+ yards in not-a-full-year of play in 2016, but you were wrong…you just imagined that. So did the Chargers new ‘brain trust’.

The recent news on the Williams injury has his momentum halted and sliding. I don’t think he’ll fall past OJH on average until July but I could see Samaje Perine jumping ahead of he and Howard soon.

 

7) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay

I guess Cameron Brate doesn’t exist either.

I thought Howard into the top 5 was pending, but his average ADP in rookie drafts has barely moved.

 

8) RB Samaje Perine, Washington

Perine’s rise to the top 5-6 is stalled awaiting more football news…so, somewhere in mid/late July. The moment Perine has media buy in over Kelley – Perine will push top 5 overall.

 

9) WR John Ross, Cincinnati

Talk about a guy with no rookie draft momentum. He’s been stuck at the #1.08-1.09 spot for a while now. I thought he’d push Corey Davis some as the top WR taken, but he’s not even close. Well, Davis might fall back closer to him if Eric Decker is seen working fine in training camp.

 

10) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City

We live in a world where Spencer Ware does not exist…

Every other day in the football media it seems there is a ‘Hunt could start‘, then one saying, ‘Ware will start‘. Hunt and Kamara are taking turns at this #10 spot on average.

 

11) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

All the Adrian Peterson momentum has Kamara falling. Remember, when Mark Ingram was a thing? The Saints apparently don’t.

 

12) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

Taken 20+ spots (on average) ahead of the other ‘next Jordan Reed‘ in recent rookie drafts. On a team that has never used the TE like that…

 

13) TE David Njoku, Cleveland

I guess people want in on the legendary Kessler-to-Njoku connection.

Seth DeValve heat churning up today may flop Njoku back a spot next week.

 

14) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston

Not a lot of confidence in Tom Savage, I guess? Savage throws left-handed handed better/harder than Watson does right-handed…

I think the mainstream is starting to settle on Watson as the QB they will back as ‘best in class’. He’s going to be the first QB taken in most every rookie draft.

 

15) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh

The positive Martavis Bryant news is going to start sinking JSS some. This crazed Eli Rogers talk won’t hurt either.

 

16) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo (+1 spot since last week)

This week’s move up is more about D’Onta Foreman’s lost momentum.

The Bills essentially made Jones a first-round pick (early second) and declined the option on Sammy Watkins…and the market still reacts with a yawn on Zay.

The dance with Jeremy Maclin had Zay falling fast, and now recovering this week.

 

17) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston (-1 spot since last week)

The ‘overweight’ news at rookie camp reversed a climb into the top 13-14 he was building for the past few weeks. Foreman is just now starting to recover and gain some momentum back.

 

18) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina  

You cannot serve two masters in Carolina…McCaffrey and Samuel. People chose to worship the golden calf Christian McCaffrey.

 

19) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis

Step Right Up!!! The next contender on the ‘this is the year Frank Gore dies off‘ fantasy contest. Remember, when rookie Josh Ferguson was playing right away last season? He’s still there.

 

20) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay

You know the Packers drafted three RBs this year, right? Aaron Jones is warming up…

 

21) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

The mainstream hates Alex Smith, and thus the sheep do as well. There is a belief that somehow Mahomes will bump Smith opening day. That is never going to happen.

 

22) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco (+1 spot since last week)

The Peter King special is starting to fade from memory. The more we move from the King hype, the more Williams’ momentum starts to drop. No one cared before the Peter King story hit many weeks ago, and that’s starting to fade.

Williams falling behind Matt Breida rumors are starting to impact here.

 

23) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay (-1 spot since last week)

Not sure how his draft stock is ahead of Cooper Kupp, given the team situations they landed with.

 

24) QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago

When does he play…2017 or 2018?

 

25) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver (+1 spot since last week)

I really do not understand what people are chasing here. I really don’t. Has anyone heard of Jordan Taylor?

 

26) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (-1 spot since last week)

Honestly, you have to be sick in the head to take Carlos Henderson over Cooper Kupp.

 

27) RB James Conner. Pittsburgh (+2 spots since last week)

The falling DeShone Kizer stock is helping this move this week.

 

28) QB DeShone Kizer, Cleveland (-1 spot since last week)

Kizer was heating up but the recent news on his O-C saying that he ‘wasn’t ready’ halted the ride.

 

29) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay (-1 spot since last week)

All the positive Doug Martin talk is pushing McNichols out from sleeper to fading deep sleeper.

 

30) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee (-1 spot since last week)

People are starting to wake up on Taywan but ‘Tennessee’ does not light many people’s fires…and the Eric Decker signing could really sting his momentum.

 

31) Wayne Gallman, NY Giants (-1 spot since last week)

When is the last time you sustainably prospered from a NY Giants RB for fantasy?

 

32) WR Ardarius Stewart, NY Jets (-1 spot since last week)

The Robby Anderson arrest helps his case for playing time in 2017. His various, recent surgeries are starting to erode support.

 

33) TE Gerald Everett. LA Rams

You know new Rams HC Sean McVay created the ‘Jordan Reed‘ role in Washington, right? A lot of positive chatter on Everett coming out of rookie camp as well.

 

34) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago

A desperate ‘maybe this TE will matter‘ pick as the talent remaining thins in dynasty rookie drafts.

 

35) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia

The camp reports are gushing on Pumphrey. The media had this guy as a top 3 RB prospect in January-February — so they are going to help push this bubble.

 

36) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay

37) TE Jake Butt, Kansas City (+1 spot since last week)

38) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville (-1 spot since last week)

39) WR Josh Reynolds, LA Rams

40) WR Chad Williams, Arizona

Falling out of the top 40none

 

The preeminent NFL Draft and Dynasty Rookie Draft scouting service – College Football Metrics.com has launched its sixth year of scouting analytics and detailed reports, rankings and coverage of all things NFL Draft…including the college all-star bowls, the NFL Combine, and the draft itself. Our analysis is like none other, designed to defy and confound the mainstream coverage – who else had David Johnson on par with Todd Gurley in 2015? Or Tyrell Williams as a top WR prospect in 2015? Or Jatavis Brown and Sean Davis as top defensive prospects in 2016? Who else railed against Laquon Treadwell and Jameis Winston from the jump in their draft years? What will we discover with our computer scouting models in 2017?

For a completely different scouting service, visit collegefootballmetrics.com. Originally designed for NFL personnel departments, it has become home to the high stakes dynasty and fantasy profiteers – come see why that one person in your league always finds all those players ahead of everyone else…or become that person.

 

 

IDP Top 5 ADP

1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland

2) Jarrad Davis, Detroit

3) Reuben Foster, San Francisco

4) Jamal Adams, NY Jets

5) Haason Reddick, Arizona

6) Jabril Peppers, Cleveland

7) Solomon Thomas, San Francisco

8) Zach Cunningham, Houston (+1 spot since last week)

9) Derek Barnett, Philadelphia (-1 spot since last week)

10) Malik Hooker, Indianapolis

 

Good luck in your drafts this weekend!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>