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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (11.0)

September 2, 2017 6:37 PM
June 30, 2017 8:55 PM

1) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

*#1 in 64% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Fournette has been holding/improving his percentage taken at 1.01 in rookie drafts for several weeks now. He is the one player people are settling in on at the top — and then there is some consternation about whom to take 1.02. Fournette is the clear #1, on average, for now.


2) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

*#1 in 21% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

McCaffrey is trying to make a push towards the 1.01 spot, but people are still worried about the ‘Cam effect‘ and whether CMC will see enough touches to truly matter. McCaffrey has ALL the media momentum with him. One more big media push when camps open…something about him taking snaps as a WR, etc. and he’s going to close the gap even more on Fournette. I don’t think he’ll overtake Fournette (on average) but the spread of percentage of being taken #1.01 will close a bunch.


3) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati (+1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 6% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Mixon just slid past Corey Davis into the #3 spot, on average. The good vibes on Mixon are cranking up and the Eric Deckersigning may have put a speed bump into Davis’s valuation.

The Mixon charge to becoming the most-taken guy at #1.01 is just waiting to happen. It will get lit by some silly camp news…and the three-way dance for the 1.01 between Fournette-McCaffrey-Mixon will begin soon.


4) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee (-1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 4% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Davis was losing some momentum before this and now with the Eric Decker signing…he’s dropping some more. Next stop might be to fall past Dalvin Cook.


5) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

*#1 in 3% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Mike Zimmer is going to talk Cook into staying in the top 5…I can’t believe it. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by anything in the NFL anymore. The presence of Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon are meaningless to the Cook-oholics.


6) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay (+1 spot since last week)

Wow. Not sure if this is a blip, but OJH just slid past Mike Williams in our tracking. This is more an issue with Williams than renewed love for Howard.


7) WR Mike Williams, San Diego (-1 spot since last week)

Williams is getting ice cold – his injury and projected time he’ll miss are taking a toll.

A lot of people still believe…they live in a world where Tyrell Williams does not exist. They do not know that there was a 6’3″+/220+ WR who has Julio Jones-like athleticism and posted 1,000+ yards in not-a-full-year of play in 2016. The Chargers new ‘brain trust’ is just as blind.


8) RB Samaje Perine, Washington

It won’t be long before Perine is trying to crack the top 5. He’s closing in on Williams and Howard right now. One piece of good news and he’s going to the top 6 in the next 1-3 weeks.


9) WR John Ross, Cincinnati

Talk about a guy with no rookie draft momentum. He’s been stuck at the #1.08-1.09 spot for a while now. I thought he’d push Corey Davis some as the top WR taken, but he’s not even close.


10) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans (+1 spot since last week)

The news of Kamara working as a WR in practices some has jumped him past Kareem Hunt again…they seem to trade spots every week.



11) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City (-1 spot since last week)

We live in a world where Spencer Ware does not exist, and people somehow think Hunt is getting the job turned over to him. Good luck with that.


12) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

Taken 20+ spots (on average) ahead of the other ‘next Jordan Reed‘ in recent rookie drafts. On a team that has never used the TE like that…


13) TE David Njoku, Cleveland

I guess people want in on the legendary Kessler-to-Njoku connection.

Seth DeValve heat churning up could cost Njoku’s valuation in the next week or two.


14) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh (+1 spot since last week)

The positive Martavis Bryant news is going to start sinking JSS some. This crazed Eli Rogers talk won’t hurt either.


15) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo (+1 spot since last week)

The Bills essentially made Jones a first-round pick (early second) and declined the option on Sammy Watkins…and the market still reacts with a yawn on Zay.


16) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (-2 spots since last week)

Not a lot of confidence in Tom Savage, I guess? Savage throws left-handed handed better/harder than Watson does right-handed…

I think the mainstream is starting to settle on Watson as the QB they will back as ‘best in class’. He’s going to be the first QB taken in most every rookie draft.


17) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston

The ‘overweight’ news at rookie camp reversed a climb into the top 13-14 he was building for the past few weeks. The weight issue is really holding him down in drafts, I think.


18) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina  

You cannot serve two masters in Carolina…McCaffrey and Samuel. People chose to worship the golden calf Christian McCaffrey.


19) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay (+1 spot since last week)

You know the Packers drafted three RBs this year, right?


20) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis (-1 spot since last week)

Step Right Up!!! The next contender on the ‘this is the year Frank Gore dies off‘ fantasy contest. Remember, when rookie Josh Ferguson was playing right away last season? He’s still there.


21) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

The mainstream hates Alex Smith, and thus the sheep do as well. There is a belief that somehow Mahomes will bump Smith opening day. That is never going to happen.


22) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco

The Peter King special is starting to fade from memory. The more we move from the King hype, the more Williams’ momentum starts to drop. No one cared before the Peter King story hit many weeks ago, and that’s starting to fade.

Williams falling-behind-Matt Breida rumors are starting to impact here.


23) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay

Not sure how his draft stock is ahead of Cooper Kupp, given the team situations they landed with.


24) QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago

He can’t get close to Deshaun Watson in most drafts.


25) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (+1 spot since last week)

Honestly, you have to be sick in the head to take Carlos Henderson over Cooper Kupp, but I see it wayyy too many times.


26) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay (+3 spots since last week)

All the positive Doug Martin talk is pushing down McNichols’ sleeper story.


27) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver (-2 spots since last week)

I really do not understand what people are chasing here. I really don’t. Has anyone heard of Jordan Taylor?


28) RB James Conner. Pittsburgh (-1 spot since last week)

Conner keeps sticking right in this #27-29 zone.


29) QB DeShone Kizer, Cleveland (-1 spot since last week)

Kizer was heating up but the recent news on his O-C saying that he ‘wasn’t ready’ halted the ride.


30) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee

People are starting to wake up on Taywan but ‘Tennessee’ does not light many people’s fires…and the Eric Decker signing hurt any momentum building.


31) Wayne Gallman, NY Giants

When is the last time you sustainably prospered from a NY Giants RB for fantasy?


32) WR Ardarius Stewart, NY Jets

The Robby Anderson arrest helps his case for playing time in 2017. His various, recent surgeries are starting to erode support.


33) TE Gerald Everett. LA Rams

You know new Rams HC Sean McVay created the ‘Jordan Reed‘ role in Washington, right? A lot of positive chatter on Everett coming out of rookie camp as well.


34) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia  (+1 spot since last week)

The camp reports are gushing on Pumphrey. The media had this guy as a top 3 RB prospect in January-February — so they are going to help push this bubble.


35) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago (-1 spot since last week)

A desperate ‘maybe this TE will matter‘ pick as the talent remaining thins out in dynasty rookie drafts.



36) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay

37) TE Jake Butt, Kansas City

38) WR Chad Williams, Arizona (+2 spots since last week)

39) WR Josh Reynolds, LA Rams

40) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville (-2 spots since last week)



Falling out of the top 40none




1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland

2) Reuben Foster, San Francisco (+1 spot since last week)

3) Jarrad Davis, Detroit  (-1 spot since last week)

4) Jamal Adams, NY Jets

5) Haason Reddick, Arizona

6) Jabril Peppers, Cleveland

7) Solomon Thomas, San Francisco

8) Zach Cunningham, Houston

9) Derek Barnett, Philadelphia

10) Malik Hooker, Indianapolis



Good luck in your drafts this weekend!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>