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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (12.0)

September 2, 2017 6:27 PM
July 7, 2017 5:50 PM

1) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

*#1 in 66% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Fournette has been holding/improving his percentage taken at 1.01 in rookie drafts for several weeks now. He is the one player people are settling in on at the top — and then there is some consternation about whom to take 1.02. Fournette is the clear #1, on average, for now.


2) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

*#1 in 20% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

McCaffrey is trying to make a push towards the 1.01 spot, but people are still worried about the ‘Cam effect‘ and whether CMC will see enough touches to truly matter. McCaffrey has ALL the media momentum with him. One more big media push when camps open…something about him taking snaps as a WR, etc. and he’s going to close the gap even more on Fournette. I don’t think he’ll overtake Fournette (on average) but the spread of percentage of being taken #1.01 will close a bunch.


3) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee (+1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 5% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Davis is neck and neck with Joe Mixon for the #3 spot…with Dalvin Cook fast approaching on the outside. Davis has support because no other big name WR from this draft has people all that excited…so Davis is being tapped as the best WR from this draft by default and thus a top 5 pick. I could see him falling from the top 5 once the preseason hits. I like the player, but I sense his support is very soft because the Tennessee situation does not excite many.


4) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati (-1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 5% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

The Mixon challenge to become the most-taken guy at #1.01 is just waiting to happen. It will get lit by some silly camp news…and the three-way dance for the 1.01 between Fournette-McCaffrey-Mixon will begin soon. Mixon could take down Fournette as the 1.01 if he has a great moment his first preseason game and Fournette does little or sits out.


5) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

*#1 in 4% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Mike Zimmer is going to talk Cook into staying in the top 3-5…I can’t believe it. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by anything in the NFL anymore. The presence of Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon are meaningless to the Cook-oholics. Cook’s heat is a full flame the past week.


6) WR Mike Williams, San Diego (+1 spot since last week)

Williams is getting ice cold – his injury and projected time he’ll miss are taking a toll.

A lot of people still believe…they live in a world where Tyrell Williams does not exist. They do not know that there was a 6’3″+/220+ WR who has Julio Jones-like athleticism and posted 1,000+ yards in not-a-full-year of play in 2016. The Chargers new ‘brain trust’ is just as blind.


7) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay (-1 spot since last week)

The one week blip up to 1.06 last week was just a temporary phenomenon. This is more an issue with Williams distrust than renewed love for Howard.


8) RB Samaje Perine, Washington

Perine’s momentum is stalled. He’s going between #7-10 in most drafts. Rare top 5 grab, but not as rare – him falling into #12+ range.


9) WR John Ross, Cincinnati

Talk about a guy with no rookie draft momentum. He’s been stuck at the #1.08-1.09 spot for a while now. I thought he’d push Corey Davis some as the top WR taken, but he’s not even close.


10) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City (+1 spot since last week)

We live in a world where Spencer Ware does not exist, and people somehow think Hunt is getting the job turned over to him. Good luck with that.


11) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans (-1 spot since last week)

Kamara and Hunt are very close in ADP. I’m shocked Hunt keeps popping back ahead. I’m shocked Hunt’s even in the top 12.


12) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

Taken 20+ spots (on average) ahead of the other ‘next Jordan Reed‘ in recent rookie drafts. On a team that has never used the TE like that…


13) TE David Njoku, Cleveland

I guess people want in on the legendary Kessler-to-Njoku connection.

Seth DeValve heat churning has not hurt Njoku’s value too much.


14) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh

The positive Martavis Bryant news is going to start sinking JSS some. This crazed Eli Rogers talk won’t hurt either.


15) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (+1 spot since last week)

Not a lot of confidence in Tom Savage, I guess? Savage throws left-handed handed better/harder than Watson does right-handed…

I think the mainstream is firmly settled on Watson as the QB they will back as ‘best in class’. He’s going to be the first QB taken in most every rookie draft.


16) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston (+1 spot since last week)

The ‘overweight’ news at rookie camp reversed a climb into the top 13-14 he was building. The weight issue is really holding him down in drafts, I think.

He’s got potential to go into the top 12 with a bit of good news/tape once the preseason kicks in.


17) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo (-2 spots since last week)

The Bills essentially made Jones a first-round pick (early second) and declined the option on Sammy Watkins…and the market still reacts with a yawn on Zay. Jones’s fantasy value could not be any more ice cold. No one cares about him.


18) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina  

You cannot serve two masters in Carolina…McCaffrey and Samuel. People chose to worship the golden calf Christian McCaffrey.


19) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis (+1 spot since last week)

Step Right Up!!! The next contender on the ‘this is the year Frank Gore dies off‘ fantasy contest. Remember, when rookie Josh Ferguson was playing right away last season? He’s still there.


20) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay (-1 spot since last week)

You know the Packers drafted three RBs this year, right? How is he this far ahead of Aaron Jones?


21) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

The mainstream hates Alex Smith, and thus the sheep do as well. There is a belief that somehow Mahomes will bump Smith opening day. That is never going to happen.


22) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay (+1 spot since last week)

Not sure how his draft stock is ahead of Cooper Kupp, given the team situations they landed with.


23) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco (-1 spot since last week)

The Peter King special is starting to fade from memory…his momentum is dying off fast.

The more we move from the King hype, the more Williams’ momentum starts to drop. No one cared before the Peter King story hit many weeks ago, and that’s starting to fade.

Williams falling-behind-Matt Breida-on-the-depth-chart rumors are starting to impact here.


24) QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago

He can’t get close to Deshaun Watson in most rookie drafts, just maybe in Superflex drafts.


25) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver (+2 spots since last week)

I really do not understand what people are chasing here. I really don’t. Has anyone heard of Jordan Taylor?


26) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (-1 spot since last week)

Honestly, you have to be sick in the head to take Carlos Henderson over Cooper Kupp, but I see it wayyy too many times.


27) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay (-1 spot since last week)

All the positive Doug Martin talk is pushing down McNichols’ sleeper story.


28) RB James Conner. Pittsburgh

Conner keeps sticking right in this #27-29 zone. My full scouting report on him coming soon at CFM might add some perspective on how to play him for rookie drafts.


29) QB DeShone Kizer, Cleveland

Kizer was heating up but the recent news on his O-C saying that he ‘wasn’t ready’ halted the ride.


30) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee

People are starting to wake up on Taywan but ‘Tennessee’ does not light many people’s fires…and the Eric Decker signing hurt any momentum building.


31) WR Ardarius Stewart, NY Jets (+1 spot since last week)

The Robby Anderson arrest helps his case for playing time in 2017. His various, recent surgeries are starting to erode support. I thought the Marquess Wilson signing would have some effect but not yet.


32) Wayne Gallman, NY Giants (-1 spot since last week)

When is the last time you sustainably prospered from a NY Giants RB for fantasy?


33) TE Gerald Everett. LA Rams

You know new Rams HC Sean McVay created the ‘Jordan Reed‘ role in Washington, right? A lot of positive chatter on Everett coming out of rookie camp as well.


34) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago (+1 spot since last week)

A desperate ‘maybe this TE will matter‘ pick as the talent remaining thins out in dynasty rookie drafts.


35) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia (-1 spot since last week)

The camp reports are gushing on Pumphrey. The media had this guy as a top 3 RB prospect in January-February — so they are going to help push this bubble.


36) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay

37) WR Josh Reynolds, LA Rams (+2 spots since last week)

38) TE Jake Butt, Kansas City (1- spot since last week)

39) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville (-2 spots since last week)

40) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit (back in the top 40 this week)


Falling out of the top 40Chad Williams, Arizona




1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland

2) Reuben Foster, San Francisco

3) Jarrad Davis, Detroit

4) Jamal Adams, NY Jets

5) Haason Reddick, Arizona

6) Jabril Peppers, Cleveland

7) Solomon Thomas, San Francisco

8) Zach Cunningham, Houston

9) Derek Barnett, Philadelphia

10) Malik Hooker, Indianapolis



Good luck in your drafts this weekend!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>