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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (13.0)

September 2, 2017 6:17 PM
July 15, 2017 12:08 PM

1) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

*#1 in 68% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Fournette has really been holding/improving his percentage taken at 1.01 in rookie drafts for several weeks now. He is the one player people are settling in on at the top — and then there is some consternation about whom to take 1.02. Fournette is the clear #1, on average, for now.

I was listening to the Fantasy channel on XM to take my dog to the park this very morning, and the show host called him ‘Lenny Fournette‘ and I almost decided to retire from this business right then and there. ‘Lenny’ is the clear #1.01 right now.


2) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

*#1 in 16% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

I love the war happening for people here – first off, everyone in the mainstream loves McCaffrey more than any player in this draft including ‘Lenny’. The moment CMC does anything remotely interesting this preseason he’s going to get into a 50-50 tug o’ war with Fournette at the top. The mainstream has talked themselves into McCaffrey as the best rookie to ever live…when he might not be the best rookie fantasy option on his own team.

Some people just have a blind love of McCaffrey without knowing why…something about an RB who can play like a WR. Sounds interesting. Someone should check out Curtis Samuel’s 2016 at Ohio State, but ‘what evs’. Some are fearing the high-brow trending analysis, because they are super smart…and they repeat the ‘Cam doesn’t throw much to RBs’ mantra. OK, great…but Cam and David Shula have never had McCaffery to work with…we don’t know the trend of tomorrow has anything to do with that after yesteryear. The scenario is different.

We also haven’t had this – Shula has all the pressure in the world on him to get McCaffrey the ball. That’s all The Walking Deadmainstream wants – they want mucho McCaffrey, and when do they want it? Now! I wouldn’t be surprised if McCaffrey got 27 targets a game because of all the media and fan heat that’s being whipped up.

I would not be shocked if McCaffrey ends up the new #1.01, on average ADP in rookie drafts, within a month. At least for a moment or two.

Right now, McCaffrey goes #1 on occasion, but a lot of #3-4s because of the sharks who fear the McCaffrey hype is too much…or play in non-PPR leagues.


3) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee

*#1 in 7% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Davis is winding up #2 overall a lot, right along with McCaffrey, but Davis doesn’t see as many #1 moments. Those in need/desire of a WR reach for Davis because there is no top WR alternative among the top 5.


4) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

*#1 in 5% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

The other ‘Lenny’ challenger waiting to launch…Mixon could challenge to become the most-taken guy at #1.01 – it’s just waiting to happen. It will get lit by some silly camp news…and the three-way dance for the 1.01 between Fournette-McCaffrey-Mixon will begin soon. Mixon could take down Fournette as the 1.01 if he has a great moment his first preseason game and Fournette does little or sits out.


5) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

*#1 in 4% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Mike Zimmer is going to talk Cook into staying in the top 3-5…I can’t believe it. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by anything in the NFL anymore. The presence of Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon are meaningless to the Cook-oholics.


6) WR Mike Williams, San Diego

Williams is getting colder in rookie drafts – his injury and projected time he’ll miss are taking a toll.

A lot of people still believe…they live in a world where Tyrell Williams does not exist. They do not know that there was a 6’3″+/220+ WR who has Julio Jones-like athleticism and posted 1,000+ yards in not-a-full-year of play in 2016. The Chargers new ‘brain trust’ is just as unaware.


7) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay

The one week blip up to 1.06 a few weeks ago was just a temporary phenomenon. This move to 1.06 is more an issue with Williams distrust than renewed love for Howard. I don’t think Howard will go much higher than 1.05-1.10 range because people generally do not get excited about TEs in rookie drafts.


8) WR John Ross, Cincinnati (+1 spot since last report)

Talk about a guy with no rookie draft momentum. He’s been stuck at the #1.08-1.09 spot for a while now. I thought he’d push Corey Davis some as the top WR taken, but he’s not even close.


9) RB Samaje Perine, Washington (-1 spot since last report)

Perine’s momentum has stalled. He’s going between #7-12 in most drafts. The guy who called Fournette ‘Lenny’ doesn’t think ‘Sam’ Perine is anything to get that excited about. THANK YOU, MAINSTREAM!!


10) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City

We live in a world where Spencer Ware does not exist, and people somehow think Hunt is getting the job turned over to him. Good luck with that. How Hunt trades ahead of Perine in some drafts is mind-boggling.


11) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

Kamara and Hunt are very close in ADP. I’m shocked Hunt keeps popping back ahead. I’m shocked Hunt’s even in the top 12 considering his situation.


12) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

Taken 20+ spots (on average) ahead of the other ‘next Jordan Reed‘ in recent rookie drafts. On a team that has never used the TE like that…


13) TE David Njoku, Cleveland

I think I’ve heard Seth DeValve’s name/getting accolades on 3-4 different occasions in the mainstream this preseason. I’ve not heard a peep about Njoku.


14) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh

The positive Martavis Bryant news/projections should keep sinking JSS some. This crazed Eli Rogers talk won’t hurt either. I expect JSS to fall out of the top 15-20 in August.


15) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston

Not a lot of confidence in Tom Savage, I guess? Savage throws left-handed handed better/harder than Watson does right-handed…

I think the mainstream is firmly settled on Watson as the QB they will back as ‘best in class’. He’s going to be the first QB taken in most every rookie draft.


16) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo (+1 spot since last report)

The Bills essentially made Jones a first-round pick (early second), trading up for him, and then later declined the option on Sammy Watkins…and yet the market still reacts with a yawn on Zay. There’s a negative vibe on Zay in general as the product of a gimmick offense in college.


17) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston (-1 spot since last report)

The ‘overweight’ news at rookie camp reversed a climb into the top 13-14 he was building. The weight issue is really holding him down in drafts, I think.

He’s got potential to go into the top 12 with a bit of good news/tape once the preseason kicks in. Foreman may not fly high in preseason ADP, but he could really do damage to Lamar Miller’s redraft ADP and dynasty value…as he should. Why does anyone think Foreman was drafted by Houston? Because they loved the mess Lamar Miller created last year…at sky high payroll prices?


18) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina  

You cannot serve two masters in Carolina…McCaffrey and Samuel. People choose to worship the golden calf Christian McCaffrey. I could see Samuel getting shutout, early on, as a rookie because of too much media hype to get McCaffrey the ball.


19) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay (+1 spot since last report)

You know the Packers drafted three RBs this year, right? How is he this far ahead of Aaron Jones? I have no idea why Williams is a top 20 rookie draft prospect given GB’s RB situation.


20) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis (-1 spot since last report)

Step Right Up!!! The next contender on the ‘this is the year Frank Gore dies off‘ fantasy contest. Remember, when rookie Josh Ferguson was playing right away last season? He’s still there.


21) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

The mainstream hates Alex Smith, and thus the sheep do as well. There is a belief that somehow Mahomes will bump Smith opening day. That is never going to happen. Maybe 2018, but not to start 2017.


22) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay

Not sure how his draft stock is ahead of Cooper Kupp, given the team situations they landed with. I like Godwin a lot, but don’t love his NFL landing spot for fantasy consistency.


23) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco

The Peter King special is starting to fade from memory…his momentum is dying off fast.

The more we move from the King hype, the more Williams’ momentum starts to drop. No one cared before the Peter King story hit many weeks ago, and that’s starting to fade.

Williams falling-behind-Matt Breida-on-the-depth-chart rumors are starting to impact here.


24) QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago

He can’t get close to Deshaun Watson in most rookie drafts, just maybe in Superflex drafts.


25) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver

I really do not understand what people are chasing here. I really don’t. Has anyone heard of Jordan Taylor?


26) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams

Honestly, you have to be sick in the head to take Carlos Henderson over Cooper Kupp, but I see it wayyy too many times.


27) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay

All the positive Doug Martin talk is pushing down McNichols’ sleeper story.


28) RB James Conner. Pittsburgh

Conner keeps sticking right in this #27-29 zone. My full scouting report on him coming soon at CFM might add some perspective on how to play him for rookie drafts. Will post in the next week or so.


29) QB DeShone Kizer, Cleveland

Kizer was heating up but the recent news on his O-C saying that he ‘wasn’t ready’ halted the ride.


30) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee

People are starting to wake up on Taywan but ‘Tennessee’ does not light many people’s fires…and the Eric Decker signing hurt any momentum building.


31) Wayne Gallman, NY Giants (+1 spot since last report)

When is the last time you sustainably prospered from a NY Giants RB for fantasy?


32) WR Ardarius Stewart, NY Jets (-1 spot since last report)

The Robby Anderson arrest helps his case for playing time in 2017. His various, recent surgeries are starting to erode support. I thought the Marquess Wilson signing would have some effect but not yet.


33) TE Gerald Everett. LA Rams

You know new Rams HC Sean McVay created the ‘Jordan Reed‘ role in Washington, right? A lot of positive chatter on Everett coming out of rookie camp as well. You had to love Episode #8 of the Amazon series in the Rams’ draft/war room if you’re an Everett fan.


34) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago

A desperate ‘maybe this TE will matter‘ pick as the talent remaining thins out in dynasty rookie drafts.


35) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay

He’s a pretty intriguing RB, but the Packers’ RB depth chart is loaded. The gap between Jones and Williams in rookie drafts, on average, is surprising.


36) TE Jake Butt, Kansas City (+2 spots since last week)

37) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville (+2 spots since last week)

38) WR Josh Reynolds, LA Rams (-1 spot since last week)

39) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit (-1 spot since last week)

40) RB Donnel Pumphrey, Philadelphia (-5 spots since last week)



Falling out of the top 40none from last week



IDP Top 10 ADP

1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland

2) Jarrad Davis, Detroit (+1 spot since last week)

3) Reuben Foster, San Francisco (-1 spot since last week)

4) Jamal Adams, NY Jets

5) Haason Reddick, Arizona

6) Jabril Peppers, Cleveland

7) Solomon Thomas, San Francisco

8) Zach Cunningham, Houston

9) Derek Barnett, Philadelphia

10) Malik Hooker, Indianapolis



Good luck in your drafts this weekend!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>