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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (14.0)

September 2, 2017 6:15 PM
July 21, 2017 5:10 PM

1) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

*#1 in 65% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Fournette has really been holding/improving his percentage taken at 1.01 in rookie drafts for several weeks now. He is the one player people are settling in on at the top — and then there is some consternation about whom to take 1.02. Fournette is the clear #1, on average, for now.

I was listening to the Fantasy channel on XM to take my dog to the park last week, and the show host called him ‘Lenny Fournette‘ and I almost decided to retire from this business right then and there. ‘Lenny’ is the clear #1.01 right now.


2) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

*#1 in 17% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

I love the war happening for people here – first off, everyone in the mainstream loves McCaffrey more than any player in this draft including ‘Lenny’. The moment CMC does anything remotely interesting this preseason he’s going to get into a 50-50 tug o’ war with Fournette at the top. The mainstream has talked themselves into McCaffrey as the best rookie to ever live…when he might not be the best rookie fantasy option on his own team.

Some people just have a blind love of McCaffrey without knowing why…something about an RB who can play like a WR. Sounds interesting. Someone should check out Curtis Samuel’s 2016 at Ohio State, but ‘what evs’. Some are fearing the high-brow trending analysis, because they are super smart…and they repeat the ‘Cam doesn’t throw much to RBs‘ mantra. OK, great, I agree…but Cam and David Shula have never had an RB like McCaffery (or Samuel) to work with…we don’t know the trend of tomorrow has anything to do with the reality of the past. The 2017 scenario is totally different.

We also haven’t had this – Shula has all the pressure in the world on him to get McCaffrey the ball. That’s all The Walking Deadmainstream wants – they want mucho McCaffrey, and when do they want it? Now! I wouldn’t be surprised if McCaffrey got 27 targets a game because of all the media and fan heat that’s being whipped up.

I would not be shocked if McCaffrey ends up the new #1.01, on average ADP in rookie drafts, within a month. At least for a moment or two.

Right now, McCaffrey goes #1 on occasion, but also lot of pick #3-4s because of the sharks who fear the McCaffrey hype is too much…and/or play in non-PPR leagues.

I also believe Dave Gettleman getting fired helps McCaffrey even more because the weak and/or inexperienced hands in charge of the Panthers will do what the mainstream tells them – so fears that McCaffrey isn’t going to be used all that creatively are more justified today.

The Gettleman firing has way more fantasy impact in Carolina than we realize.


3) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee

*#1 in 7% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Davis is winding up #2 overall a lot, right along with McCaffrey, but Davis doesn’t see as many #1 moments. Those in need/desire of a WR reach for Davis because there is no top WR alternative among the top 5…especially now that the Mike Williams news goes from bad to worse.


4) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

*#1 in 6% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

The other ‘Lenny’ challenger waiting to launch…Mixon could challenge to become the most-taken guy at #1.01 – it’s just waiting to happen. It will get lit by some silly camp news…and the three-way dance for the 1.01 between Fournette-McCaffrey-Mixon will begin soon. Mixon could take down Fournette as the 1.01 if he has a great moment his first preseason game and Fournette does little or sits out.


5) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

*#1 in 5% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Dalvin Cook is really heating up. You hear/see more blurbs about Cook than about Mixon, right now, in my anecdotal opinion. Cook may pass Mixon in ADP for a moment in the next week or two.


6) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay (+1 spot since last week)

The Mike Williams back issue has pushed OJH a tick ahead of Williams this week. It may be a permanent move this time.


7) WR Mike Williams, San Diego (-1 spot since last week)

The back surgery rumors are eroding the already weak support for this prospect. It wont be long before he slides to the back-end of the top 10. He shouldn’t even be in thew top 10…or 20.


8) WR John Ross, Cincinnati (+1 spot since last week)

How people take Mike Williams ahead of John Ross is totally beyond me. I cannot think of one aspect of football where Williams makes more sense than Ross. Ross is a better athlete and works for a better team with less depth chart pressure.


9) RB Samaje Perine, Washington (-1 spot since last week)

Perine’s momentum has stalled. He’s going between #7-12 in most drafts. The guy who called Fournette ‘Lenny’ doesn’t think ‘Sam’ Perine is anything to get that excited about. THANK YOU, MAINSTREAM!!


10) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City

We live in a world where Spencer Ware does not exist, and people somehow think Hunt is getting the job turned over to him. Good luck with that. How Hunt trades ahead of Perine in some drafts is mind-boggling.


11) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

Kamara and Hunt are very close in ADP. I’m shocked Hunt keeps popping back ahead. I’m shocked Hunt’s even in the top 12 considering his situation.


12) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

Taken 20+ spots (on average) ahead of the other ‘next Jordan Reed‘ in recent rookie drafts. On a team that has never used the TE like that…


13) TE David Njoku, Cleveland

Every week I say — I think I’ve heard Seth DeValve’s name/getting accolades on 3-4 different occasions in the mainstream this preseason. I’ve not heard a peep about Njoku.

This week…another Seth DeValve lovefest, and not a word about Njoku. It has to hurt Njoku’s rookie draft ADP at some point, no?


14) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh

The positive Martavis Bryant news/projections should keep sinking JSS some. This crazed Eli Rogers talk won’t hurt either. I expect JSS to fall out of the top 15-20 in August when Martavis does something/anything cool.


15) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo (+2 spots since last week)

The Bills essentially made Jones a first-round pick (early second), trading up for him, and then later declined the option on Sammy Watkins…and yet the market still reacts with a yawn on Zay. There’s a negative vibe on Zay in general as the product of a gimmick offense in college.


16) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (-1 spot since last week)

I think the mainstream is firmly settled on Watson as the QB they will back as ‘best in class’. He’s going to be the first QB taken in most every rookie draft.


17) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston (-1 spot since last week)

Foreman’s career is off to a less than auspicious start. Reported to rookie camp out of shape. Recently arrested for gun (was legal) and drug (‘was the other guys’…) possession. The ADP slide may only be beginning.


18) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina  

You cannot serve two masters in Carolina…McCaffrey and Samuel. People choose to worship the golden calf Christian McCaffrey. I could see Samuel getting shutout, early on, as a rookie because of too much media hype to get McCaffrey the ball.

Dave Gettleman gone is a killer for Samuel’s rookie push, potentially.


19) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay (+1 spot since last week)

You know the Packers drafted three RBs this year, right? How is he this far ahead of Aaron Jones? I have no idea why Williams is a top 20 rookie draft prospect given GB’s RB situation.


20) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis (-1 spot since last week)

Step Right Up!!! The next contender on the ‘this is the year Frank Gore dies off‘ fantasy contest. Remember, when rookie Josh Ferguson was playing right away last season? He’s still there.


21) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

The mainstream hates Alex Smith, and thus the sheep do as well. There is a belief that somehow Mahomes will bump Smith opening day. That is never going to happen. Maybe 2018, but not to start 2017.


22) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay

Not sure how his draft stock is ahead of Cooper Kupp, given the team situations they landed with. I like Godwin a lot, but don’t love his NFL landing spot for fantasy consistency.


23) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco

The Peter King special is starting to fade from memory…his momentum is dying off fast.

The more we move from the King hype, the more Williams’ momentum starts to drop. No one cared before the Peter King story hit many weeks ago, and that’s starting to fade.

Williams falling-behind-Matt Breida-on-the-depth-chart rumors are starting to impact here.


24) QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago

He can’t get close to Deshaun Watson in most rookie drafts, just maybe in Superflex drafts.


25) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver

I really do not understand what people are chasing here. I really don’t. Has anyone heard of Jordan Taylor?


26) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay (+1 spot since last week)

All the positive Doug Martin talk is pushing down McNichols’ sleeper story. Rumblings of Charles Sims falling out of favor are perking JMN back up.


27) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (-1 spot since last week)

Honestly, you have to be sick in the head to take Carlos Henderson over Cooper Kupp, but I see it wayyy too many times.


28) RB James Conner. Pittsburgh

Conner keeps sticking right in this #27-29 zone. My full scouting report on him coming out 7/24 on CFM might add some perspective on how to play him for rookie drafts.


29) QB DeShone Kizer, Cleveland

Kizer was heating up but the recent news on his O-C saying that he ‘wasn’t ready’ halted the ride.


30) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee

People are starting to wake up on Taywan but ‘Tennessee’ does not light many people’s fires…and the Eric Decker signing hurt any momentum building.


31) Wayne Gallman, NY Giants (+1 spot since last week)

When is the last time you sustainably prospered from a NY Giants RB for fantasy?


32) TE Gerald Everett. LA Rams (+1 spot since last week)

You know new Rams HC Sean McVay created the ‘Jordan Reed‘ role in Washington, right? A lot of positive chatter on Everett coming out of rookie camp as well. You had to love Episode #8 of the Amazon series in the Rams’ draft/war room if you’re an Everett fan.


33) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago (+1 spot since last week)

A desperate ‘maybe this TE will matter‘ pick as the talent remaining thins out in dynasty rookie drafts.


34) WR Ardarius Stewart, NY Jets (-3 spots since last week)

The Robby Anderson arrest helps his case for playing time in 2017. His various, recent surgeries are starting to erode support. I thought the Marquess Wilson signing would have some effect but not yet.


35) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay

He’s a pretty intriguing RB, but the Packers’ RB depth chart is loaded. The gap between Jones and Williams in rookie drafts, on average, is surprising.


36) TE Jake Butt, Kansas City

37) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville

38) WR Josh Reynolds, LA Rams

39) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit

40) WR Chad Williams, Arizona (new to the top 40 since last week)



Falling out of the top 40Donnel Pumphrey



IDP Top 10 ADP

1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland

2) Jarrad Davis, Detroit

3) Reuben Foster, San Francisco

4) Jamal Adams, NY Jets

5) Haason Reddick, Arizona

6) Jabrill Peppers, Cleveland

7) Solomon Thomas, San Francisco

8) Zach Cunningham, Houston

9) Derek Barnett, Philadelphia

10) Malik Hooker, Indianapolis



Good luck in your drafts this weekend!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>