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2017 Dynasty Rookie Draft ADP Analysis (8.0)

February 8, 2018 7:03 PM
June 2, 2017 6:14 PM

NOTE: The DUMB money is in right now. If you’re drafting in May-June, you’re in the greatest time to rookie draft. All the dynasty draft sheep have are misguided pre-draft rankings touched up post-draft based on any media-sensation via ESPN, NFL.com, Yahoo, etc. You’ll see what I mean with the current ADP top 30+. Most of the mainstream rankers are barely looking at situations…and they don’t understand them anyway. Their rookie rankings are empty/silly. The echo chamber of dummies rules May-June dynasty rookie drafts – take advantage!!



1) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

*#1 in 67% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Fournette has been improving his percentage taken at 1.01 in rookie drafts for several weeks now. He is the one player people are settling in on at the top — and then there is much consternation about whom to take 1.02. Fournette is becoming the clear #1 now.


2) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee (+1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 12% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

Davis finally passed McCaffrey by a hair this week. For people needing/wanting WR help — Davis has become the top choice, but not with a ton of conviction.


3) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina (-1 spot since last week)

*#1 in 11% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

There hasn’t been as much McCaffrey talk/hype of late (it’s only on a pause), so the slight dip in momentum has him dropping past the rookie draft’s #1 desired WR (Corey Davis).


4) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

*#1 in 6% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

I thought Mixon would make a move to #2 right now, but his momentum is stuck in the mud right now. Some well-publicized roto-blurb about him starting day one will do the trick…but that hasn’t hit yet.


5) RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota

*#1 in 4% of Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings/drafts we’ve tracked this past week

The Vikings third-best RB is the #5 overall dynasty rookie selection. I cannot believe people are making this pick in the top 10, some making him their #1!!! I thank God for you people…on behalf of those of us with picks in the back end of the top 10. I still always laugh every time I see him picked in a dynasty…it never gets old.


6) WR Mike Williams, San Diego

We live in a world where Tyrell Williams does not exist. You thought there was a 6’3″+/220+ WR who has Julio Jones-like athleticism and posted 1,000+ yards in not-a-full-year of play in 2016, but you were wrong…you just imagined that. So did the Chargers new ‘brain trust’.


7) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay

I guess Cameron Brate doesn’t exist either.

I’ll bet OJH makes a move to the top 5 when the real preseason camps begin. Cook and Williams are soft targets to take out ahead of him.


8) RB Samaje Perine, Washington

I think a rise to the top 5-6 is beginning, the more training camp reports come out about him vs. Rob Kelley. He’s going to go past Dalvin Cook at some point, either him moving up or Cook falling past him. The ‘Rob Kelley is slimmer’ news somehow excited Perine-deniers the past few days, so he might fall past John Ross next week.


9) WR John Ross, Cincinnati

Talk about a guy with no rookie draft momentum. I thought he’d push Corey Davis some as the top WR taken, but he’s not even close.


10) RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans

I thought there would be more momentum for Kamara than Perine among the masses, but Kamara is holding in at #10. I’m surprised the crowded backfield in New Orleans is an issue for people, but it’s not for Cook in Minnesota.


11) RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City

We live in a world where Spencer Ware does not exist…

Every other day in the football media it seems there is a ‘Hunt could start‘, then one saying, ‘Ware will start‘, and then another after that going pro-Hunt. He’s very close to jumping ahead of Kamara.


12) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

Taken 20+ spots (on average) ahead of the other ‘next Jordan Reed‘ in recent rookie drafts. On a team that has never used the TE like that…


13) TE David Njoku, Cleveland

I guess people want in on the legendary Kessler-to-Njoku connection…


14) QB Deshaun Watson, Houston (+1 spot since last week)

Not a lot of confidence in Tom Savage, I guess? Savage throws left-handed handed better/harder than Watson does right-handed…

I think the mainstream is starting to settle on Watson as the QB they will back as ‘best in class’. He’s going to be the first QB taken in most every rookie draft.


15) WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh (-1 spot since last week)

It won’t be long before JuJu falls 1-2-3 spots. The positive Martavis Bryant news is going to start sinking JSS some.


16) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo (+1 spot since last week)

The Bills essentially made Jones a first-round pick (early second) and declined the option on Sammy Watkins…and the market still reacts with a yawn on Zay.


17) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston (-1 spot since last week)

The ‘overweight’ news at rookie camp reversed a climb into the top 13-14 he was building for the past few weeks. Foreman is ice cold of late.


18) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina  

You cannot serve two masters in Carolina…McCaffrey and Samuel. People chose to worship the golden calf Christian McCaffrey.


19) RB Marlon Mack, Indianapolis (+1 spot since last week)

Step Right Up!!! The next contender on the ‘this is the year Frank Gore dies off‘ fantasy contest. Remember, when rookie Josh Ferguson was playing right away last season? He’s still there.


20) RB Jamaal Williams, Green Bay (-1 spot since last week)

You know the Packers drafted three RBs this year, right? Aaron Jones is warming up…


21) RB Joe Williams, San Francisco

The Peter King special is starting to fade from memory. The more we move from the King hype, the more Williams’ momentum starts to drop. No one cared before the Peter King story hit many weeks ago, and that’s starting to fade.


22) QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City

The mainstream hates Alex Smith, and thus the sheep do. There is a belief that somehow Mahomes will bump Smith opening day. That is never going to happen.


23) WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay (-1 spot since last report)

Not sure how his draft stock is ahead of Cooper Kupp, given the team situations they landed in.


24) QB Mitch Trubisky, Chicago (+1 spot since last report)

When does he play…2017 or 2018?

25) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams (-2 spots since last report)

Finally, some love for the Rams #1 WR last week, but falling again this week. News of his great rookie camp is starting to leak out more and more, but the heat from that fizzled some this week. Robert Woods got more attention the past week and that has softened Kupp another notch.


26) QB DeShone Kizer, Cleveland

The biggest mover of the week. It’s starting to dawn on people that Cody Kessler is awful, but it hasn’t sunk in that Kizer is terrible as well.


27) RB Jeremy McNichols, Tampa Bay

All the positive Doug Martin talk is pushing McNichols out from sleeper to fading deep sleeper.


28) WR Carlos Henderson, Denver

I really do not understand what people are chasing here. I really don’t. Has anyone heard of Jordan Taylor?


29) RB James Conner. Pittsburgh

What happens if Le’Veon Bell misses another drug test?


30) WR Ardarius Stewart, NY Jets

The Robby Anderson arrest helps his case for playing time in 2017.


31) WR Taywan Taylor, Tennessee (+1 spot since last week)

Positive news just now hitting on Taywan, so he’ll likely jump another 1-3 spots next week.


32) TE Gerald Everett. LA Rams (+1 spot since last week)

You know new Rams HC Sean McVay created the ‘Jordan Reed‘ role in Washington, right? A lot of positive chatter on Everett coming out of rookie camp as well.


33) Wayne Gallman, NY Giants (-2 spots since last week)

When is the last time you sustainably prospered from a NY Giants RB for fantasy?


34) TE Adam Shaheen, Chicago

A desperate ‘maybe this TE will matter’ pick as the talent remaining thins in dynasty rookie drafts.


35) RB Aaron Jones, Green Bay (+2 spots since last week)

The desperation to find the Packers’ RB that FF-matters has found some love for Jones over Jamaal Williams a little more this week.


36) WR Chad Williams, Arizona (+2 spots since last report)

37) WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit (+2 spots since last report)

38) WR Dede Westbrook, Jacksonville (-3 spots since last report)

39) TE Jake Butt, Kansas City (-3 spots since last report)

40) WR Josh Reynolds, LA Rams (-1 spot since last report)



Falling out of the top 40: none




1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland

2) Jarrad Davis, Detroit

3) Reuben Foster, San Francisco

4) Jamal Adams, NY Jets

5) Haason Reddick, Arizona



Good luck in your drafts this weekend!

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>