2019 Dynasty-Fantasy Preseason Analysis Wk2 Raiders 33, Cardinals 26
*I put the Arizona game recap here in the protected area because it’s so key to our fantasy planning. I did not want it out among the masses. I wanted to speak freely here.
Well, we wanted Kyler not to do anything to draw positive attention to himself…mission accomplished.
However, I wasn’t expecting the added bonus of things going so poorly his ADP rise would halt in its tracks…and start going in the other direction. The football geniuses of the world watched this game and with their keen trained eye, in a 3-4 series penalty-fest running a vanilla offensive plan preseason game, they’ve made up their minds – Kyler Murray is terrible, and so is Kliff Kingsbury.
I am seeing Arizona fans whining about Kyler and Kingsbury (Kobra Ky) and now they wish the team never drafted Kyler or hired Kingsbury in the first place. They are listing all the other things the team SHOULD have done with their draft pick and coaching hire. Steve Wilks just needed another chance. After the Israelites were miraculously taken out of their enslavement in Egypt via an ocean parting, they soon were complaining that life was better back in their old Egyptian slavery days…this all because they didn’t care for the current variety of foods being provided by said ocean-parter and slavery freer. Football fans are even more ridiculous over a few preseason snaps.
And a close second for most ridiculous are the childish fantasy players among. You know the types that are never happy with their running backs, ever, and spend 24/7 worrying about how to roster 17 of them in a 16-man roster…and they overreact to the thing they love the moment that thing is not doing exactly what they wanted when they wanted.
Tyreek Hill 80-yard TD…fantasy football is awesome/easy, R.C. you’re a genius!! Next game Hill only has two targets in the 1st-half of a game…and I get the emails and texts AT HALFTIME…Man, I knew I shouldn’t have drafted Tyreek Hill. Defenses are going to focus on taking him out. R.C., your love for Tyreek Hill is killing my teams.
This is the life I chose.
Today, we have panic at the disco with Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. Feelings are hurt. We wanted a pony for our birthday, and all we got was a stupid sensible savings bond instead.
You’re turning to me to make you feel better? I probably can’t help you. Why? You’re too wrapped up into what THEY are saying about the game last night. You’re always worried about the potential for the negative -- and when it rears its head…you knew it was coming. I probably cannot help you if this is you. No matter what I say, your highlight watching and radio show listening are all going to have the same negative-slant take and it’s going to impregnate in your head and take residency in there regardless of what I say/write.
I’m going to express my take for those who are more unfazed investors in Kyler and not selling their entire portfolio because the stock market went down 3% in a day in a great economy based on ‘headlines’ and ‘feelings/manufactured fears’ that particular day.
One thing before I begin…
One thing I am sure of from this game.
Booger McFarland is the single most unbearable, insufferable football analyst in the history of the game. Jason Witten was awful, but backup-singer-now-lead-singer ‘Booger’ takes the cake. I watch 500+ pro game per year and chunks of another 200-300 scouting college players – he is the worst football analyst in the history of the game.
I say that to note…ESPN is the ‘worldwide leader’. Infinite Disney resources. The best they could find after scouring the earth for Monday Night Football was Jason Witten then Booger McFarland? THAT lets you into their mindset. You think they would hire me? You think they’re out there looking for something like me?
So, why would anyone trust anyone ESPN has hired for their football insider info, fantasy info, beat reporter writing in training camp?
But you will.
ESPN’s take on Kyler will affect some of you more than what I type, but here goes my attempt to make you appreciate my manna from heaven…
Fantasy Player Notes…
-- The fans are starting to turn on Kyler now (for this week). The media is rejoicing in showing you the issues from last night. The mood has turned dark.
Remember, here’s how the chain of events works on your psyche…
ESPN or whomever has 30-60-90 seconds to show you ‘what happened’ in the Arizona game. They will cherry pick the hand clapping penalties, the Kyler sack/safety, the Kyler overthrow…and they show it OVER…and OVER…and OVER. The anti-highlight reel. When you live by the highlight, you can die by the highlight…and it’s all controlled by the highlight maker.
Here are things to consider that won’t be shown over and over on outsider’s analysis…
…and let me say, first, the analysis of the smartest people in the room (the football media and their fearless leader named ‘Booger’)…an analysis, that may I remind us, are from people who wanted Arizona to keep Josh Rosen and had Dwayne Haskins as their top QB over Kyler Murray for much of the draft process (only moving Murray to #1 when it became obvious the Cards were drafting him…they never ‘believed’)…these people, these cliché machines are all saying the same simple thing to cleverly have both sides of their ass covered (paraphrasing) -- Arizona/Kyler/Kliff sucked last night something terrible but it’s just the preseason…we probably shouldn’t worry about this singular event..
Believe me…they are worrying.
And the fans only hear the first part and not the second part of that summary.
Things to keep in mind…
-- Kyler is trying not to run the ball in the preseason (smart)…so that element hasn’t been introduced to neutralize pass rushers/blitzers. The O-Line will look better when defenses blitz and Kyler sees it and takes off for 20-50+ yard gains. Or when Kyler goes on designed runs/draws, etc. They won’t be so blitzy when the real games start and Kyler is scurrying all over the place.
-- Kingsbury said he had a vanilla plan for the preseason to not show the offense off before the season started, which is absolutely the right thing to do, and he said it again after. We’re not seeing Arizona really trying to impress us/you/ESPN.
I don’t believe David Johnson split out five-wide at all in this game…but he will a bunch in-season. There were also some three tight end sets…not normal. They were doing bland things to work on or to test. Not a real offense to impress.
Kyler echoed the vanilla offense (frustrations) as did a couple other players when interviewed mid-game. None of them seemed all that concerned. You and ESPN are more concerned.
-- The whole hand-clapping controversy didn’t help a vanilla plan get into any rhythm on top of everything else. Could it have thrown off the O-Line some in their blocking schemes some?
-- Kyler overthrew one pass, legitimately. He overthrew two others to guys not open, but he was taking a shot at putting it out where only they could get it – they were actually smart throws to lead away from the defense in context.
-- Arizona wasn’t running the screen game to neutralize the pass rush…trying to keep that under wraps. They screened one time with Murray at QB in the game.
-- 3rd & 13, Kyler makes a smart throw 1-on-1 coverage throw at KeeSean Johnson…for 22 yards. A phantom offensive P.I. called it back. A big 3rd-down conversion could have led to a nice finish (or not) for Kyler’s night, but it was taken away by nonsense – and the refs are becoming DREADFUL in all these preseason games. Every preseason game so far has had a penalty first play of the game, I think.
I’m not telling you it was great; I’m just saying it doesn’t really matter to our pro-Kyler narrative. It’s overblown because were overexcited.
If you’re too scared…please don’t draft Murray or anything else on this offense. I don’t know what to tell you. As I was typing these words right now, this very moment, hand to God, I got a text from a family member who I spent 30+ minutes with yesterday helping them with their fantasy draft prep and went through my whole Kyler 2019 speech. They just now texted me…”Rough night for Kyler! You still onboard?” I know they didn’t watch the game for a fact. So where did that statement come from? Don’t let it happen to you that way.
I cannot defeat ESPN blasting visuals at you or local sports radio with their very studied take on a game they likely have not watched. The local media is just rolling with the highlights/narrative fed to them by the big boys.
I have no concerns about Kyler or this offense for fantasy.
I advocate the two-QB draft theory just as a hedge because it’s smart business. If Kyler is a giant flop, we’re not really affected with Baker in the hole.
All the panic on Kyler right now, for those drafting next week – eat up with a spoon. Let it be a power source. We needed the ADP to stop growing and actually falter – and it’s happening big-time right now. What seems like a troubling moment is actually a gift to allow us to more easily draft or acquire Kyler.
Also, one last Kyler note…
This game likely just forced him to show-off next week. God just blessed you if you are drafting before 1pm Saturday 8/24. If Kyler goes off a little next week, what will the narrative be then? Will anyone remember anything from this Oakland game?
In other non-Kyler news from this game…
-- Maybe, Brett Hundley (10-15 for 139 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) should be the Arizona starter? He’s clearly better than Kyler…just look at the numbers!
I’m so glad for Hundley. In deeper leagues – Hundley is a neat Kyler handcuff. The only QB handcuff I’d consider in 2019.
-- Josh Jacobs (4-21-0) debuted in this game, and he was fine. If you don’t think Kyler is a lightning rod that people are going to overreact to good and bad, just look at the media coverage and fan talk from this game.
Jacobs is trading ADP higher than Murray and is considered the universal #1 rookie for fantasy…and, yet, no one cared because all anyone could talk about was Kyler. If Kyler goes off a little next week…his ADP is going to pop back to where it was and a bit more. Murray elicits strong emotions…and he doesn’t have to captivate all of the other 9-11+ people in your league – it just takes 1-2 that are in ‘heat’.
All that to say, Jacobs is holding onto the #1 dynasty rookie rank spot for the masses, but THEY really want David Montgomery.
-- Darren Waller (1-7-0/2) is back playing from a minor shoulder issue. Looked fine. Looked good. Had an easy TD but the ball was overthrown.
I love Waller’s value this year too, as you know…and that non-TD for Waller – helps keep him off the radar and his ADP down. Another fantasy ADP saving GIFT from this game.
-- KeeSean Johnson (3-23-0/6) still isn’t starting in these games, but he comes in with the starters after a few plays and always looks solid. I think he may start Week 1…again, Arizona isn’t even showing you their real starting WRs yet.
Also, Andy Isabella (1-59-1/4) showed in one play why he’s better than KeeSean and why he’ll be a starter quickly.
The Izzy long TD was great, but what I liked was it was a lot of middle/deep routes and watching him just blast off the line past coverage. We haven’t even gotten to bubble screen Isabella. The speed is real…and it is going to be glorious for fantasy.
KeeSean is going to be steady grilled chicken for dinner, Isabella is going to be all the crustaceans and your finest wines…it’s going to be awesome for fantasy, eventually. Maybe Week 1 or 4 or 11. I don’t know…I just know it will be.
Meanwhile, Hakeem Butler (0-0-0/1) is like a missing person so far. How does the 6’6” guy never stand out here? He’s tanking in rookie ADPs. I’m not panicking on him, yet, but I have no redraft interest and have lost my rookie draft excitement as well. He scores a sweet alley oop TD next week, and all is forgiven. That’s how these things tend to work for all of us…
-- I mentioned it on my show last night… I am being told Haason Reddick is actively being offered in trade. And now that the Cards need CB help, expect to see him dealt for a corner prospect.
Reddick for Vernon Hargreaves (yuck)?
Reddick for Isaiah Johnson/OAK?
CB Robert Alford was playing great this training camp and was going to help stop the bleeding from Patrick Peterson’s suspension the first 6 games. Now, Alford might miss half the season. There should be no Kyler panic, but there should be cornerback panic for Arizona.
They are no longer a playoff team in my projections on the loss of Alford.
Definitely a terrible defense the first half of the year, which means MORE offense…even if it’s ugly sometimes.
-- I saw Antonio Brown (DNP) working out pregame. He looks fine. He’s kind of becoming a ‘buy low’ as he falls, for redraft. If his feet and helmet are fine, then he’s better than Keenan Allen for fantasy, no?
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