2019 Fantasy Mock Redraft (PPR, 6pts pass, 3WR+Flex, #6 spot)
For this one I’m challenging myself from the #6 spot (that I don’t love) and considering a 3-WR starting lineup requirement. Going with the QB-heavy 6pts per pass TD scoring system.
*Using FantasyPros excellent mock drafting system with a hybrid of ADPs from ESPN and NFL.com.
6pts per pass TD
Picking 6th spot/12 team.
1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex
No bonus scoring in effect
Before I started the draft, I did my QB math.
Baker was listed as #73 here, so -30 = 43rd pick…4th-round target area if I want to go there.
Kyler was #110, so -30 = 80nd pick…7th-round area (and Kyler is ice cold lately).
If I don’t go Mahomes/Baker then Kyler…it’s Kyler-Goff a must duo for me.
1.6) RB David Johnson, ARI
The draft starts Barkley-Kamara-McCaffrey-Hopkins-Elliott.
In 3-WR leagues, in mocks and real drafts I see Hopkins going into the top 4 now…which is logical. I also still see people with Ezekiel/RB fetishes making the mistake on him top 5…and it happened here with the A.I.
Which brings me to the conundrum I’ve been faced with here at #6 a lot…do I go David Johnson, or Tyreek Hill (remember, 3-WR starting lineup)?
Hill is tracking as the #16 ranked player here, so there is a chance he falls to my next pick…a snowball’s chance. If a top WR is worthy of the #6 pick, as Hopkins would be and as the system is suggesting Davante Adams (which I don’t want him on that early schedule)…why not Tyreek, my top-rated WR, as early as #6?
I know (usually) I’m going to get Leonard Fournette in the 2nd. So, do I start…
DJ-Fournette? Nice but in 3-WR leagues it’s not so dominating, per se…for what RBs to come, what WRs you pass on, etc.
If DJ, then a WR…it might be DJ-Thielen?
In two-man fantasy, PPR, you like DJ-Thielen or Tyreek-Fournette?
You could drive yourself nuts trying to figure it out. We could debate all day and not come to an obvious conclusion. You’re not going to feel settled on a choice between DJ and Tyreek (or Adams, or Kelce, or Julio, etc.) because they are all great players. You’re never going to find peace about picking one of five great options. That’s the thing about us humans, we don’t appreciate the one we’re with…we wonder about the four we didn’t go with and daydream how awesome it might feel with them. We’re just trying to get settled with our one…and we can’t because the other options.
Just pick the one you love for the best reason you can and go from there at the top of the draft.
There’s a path to work with starting with DJ and another starting with Hill. Knowing my normal pick is Fournette in the 2nd…it makes me think – do I want to start RB-RB ion a 3-WR league? I know there are a lot of WRs to come that I like in the middle rounds. But I’m not a big believer in RBs in fantasy anyway…I don’t like getting over-invested in the most replaceable position i.e. RB (besides kicker and DST).
I believe in DJ’s touch counts in that offense. I don’t care about the O-Line prowess if they are running 80+ plays a game and trying to run 100+ plays and dumping 6-7-8 screens/flares to DJ, and defenses held at bay from stacking DJ for fear of Kyler taking off.
I could see DJ leading all RBs in catches, rec. yards, and total TDs and combining for 1,800+ yards. He’s capable of putting up what 2018 Kamara-McCaffrey did, but better (see: 2016). DJ is the better Todd Gurley circa 2017-2018. DJ’s 2018 was Gurley’s 2016.
I think 16 games of David Johnson in an open offense is the single best player in the (FF) game, so I take DJ…and I’ll figure out WRs from there. If you’re worried about DJ from 2018…that’s a different time, different QB, different coaching staff, different offense. It’s apples and oranges. 2019 is closer to a 2016 set up.
2.7) TE George Kittle, SF
Man, I was hoping Kelce fell. Just missed by two spots. Do I then take George Kittle in the 2nd? If I don’t take Kittle, I’m going into TE-hell missing the ‘big 3’.
Do I go for WRs that I do not love as much – Thielen or Evans?
Do I go Fournette…but I have DJ, and Fournette’s ranking here is right at my 3rd-round pick…might he fall to me?
I ultimately went Kittle but wouldn’t argue with any of the other options. I am hoping Fournette falls, but I hate going RB-RB in general 1-2 anyway so it was an easier choice to bypass and hope he’s there in the 3rd. I like Thielen-Evans, but I think Lockett, A Robinson, Samuel can hang/beat them. I’m scrambling at TE if I don’t get Kittle.
Jimmy G. looked great last week and with Dante Pettis falling apart…Kittle starts to become ‘the guy’ more and more.
3.6) WR Tyler Lockett, SEA
Fournette went four spots ahead of me and Thielen two. Dang it. Thielen has been falling. Another factor for passing on Thielen in the 2nd (he falls to third) – I like him, but most people don’t. He’s someone you can trade for easier after the draft. No one is happy with Thielen in 2019 for ‘reasons’.
I know Thielen had a bad finish to 2018 with the new O-C, I get it and that’s a concern, but he was also historic for the first 7-8 games of 2018. One of the best fantasy WR stretches to start a season ever. He’s arguably the best pure WR talent in the game aside from Hopkins. I like Thielen, would have liked him here if he fell.
I love rounds #3-4 because I hate them. I mean, I hate the players THEY say we should take. The guys I like/want now are 4-5-6th round+ grades to THEM. So, I love that my 3rd pick is kind of a freebie. I can take someone I want a round ahead, and then take my Baker play a round+ ahead and then get back to my normal draft plan round #5 on…because THEY’LL be shopping for TE-QB round 5-10 and I have several WRs and RBs that I love in there.
I’m a big Tyler Lockett fan…the #1 WR for his team with a top 3-5 QB talent in the NFL, and Lockett is his clear ‘guy’. I go Lockett leaning WR over RB/Henry because of my 3-WR starting needs.
4.7) QB Baker Mayfield, CLE
Baker is a strong part of my plan in QB-heavy scoring leagues. People love him as a ‘persona’/fan, so he goes way ahead of rank/ADP in leagues with regular humans. In expert, leagues…I can wait. The experts are too smart to take a QB. Come at me with your Jameis, bro! Remember last year when I was beating your ass every week with my dumb/’too early’ Patrick Mahomes pick last year…while he graced your ‘sell high’ lists? The easiest drafts I do are against the experts…they’re so predictable and so afraid to deviate thought from their herd. Doesn’t guarantee I win the league…just my draft plan is cake/I don’t have to sweat much in-draft or in prep.
I’m not just reaching for a QB…I’m reaching for a specific QB…one I think leads the league in yards and TDs up with Mahomes.
What, I’m going to take Miles Sanders here like some dunce who watches all the ESPN channels in your league will?
5.6) WR Allen Robinson, CHI
Now comes my revenge of the WRs plan. I almost always get ARob then Curtis Samuel #5-6. ARob is here, so boom. No one else considered…except Samuel but he’s falling in drafts again. He’s next…or better be.
You (others) can have A.J. Green here too. I’m not that interested. I’ll take a real, playing WR talent. It’s not 2012-2015 for AJG anymore.
6.7) WR Curtis Samuel, CAR
Panthers’ #1 WR, thank you very much.
7.6) QB Kyler Murray, ARI
I was going to complete my WR plan with Kirk…Arizona’s #1, I think. Then I’d have four #1 WRs already and I’ll take the rookie gambles later to go-with. But I came to get Kyler Murray. A possible weapon of mass destruction. I might could wait on Kyler but if I miss Kirk, I won’t even think about it. If I miss Kyler, I will cry. I don’t worry a bit about paying for weapons of mass destruction.
8.7) RB LeSean McCoy, BUF
Now, it’s time for my master strokes…what I’m going to do at RB. I plan to take LeSean McCoy as a sure-fire #2 RB for Week 1, but then I’m taking Tony Pollard-Justin Jackson right after to have two shots at an RB1 for weeks or all year…for a bargain price. While others take Miles Sanders…
9.6) RB Tony Pollard, DAL
His ADP is lagging reality. I could’ve waited but he is a Cowboy and that is making his ADP sizzle a bit. I’m sure Zeke won’t be there for at least 3+ weeks, so I just got a legit RB1 threat in the 9th-round.
If Elliott comes back Week 1…I move on.
10.7) RB Justin Jackson, LAC
I’m more sure that Gordon will be gone 10 weeks than Elliott gone for the same, so this is a useful RB1.5-2.5 in his stead. Hoping Gordon gets traded.
11.6) RB Devin Singletary, BUF
Part of my McCoy plan is getting Singletary in case McCoy traded this week or Week 4, etc., so he’s here and I take him.
Pollard-Jackson-Singletary…one or two pan out and I can trade them for more WRs as needed. I’m going RB heavy now because the value is there if I get 1-2-3 of them right. Finding a #4-5 WR in Weeks 1-2-3 waivers is a piece of cake. I get one of these RBs to payoff and I can wheel and deal.
12.7) PK Justin Tucker, BAL
I get my favorite kicker. Sometimes I take Zuerlein, but my heart is with Tucker a lot.
I take my best in class kicker now, in part, because everything I’m taking from here will be there when I want it. Rookie WRs and a DST, and…
13.6) TE Darren Waller, OAK
Stupid Hard Knocks makes me make this pick earlier than I used to. Might could’ve waited but don’t want to.
14.7) Denver DST
As I do. I could wait later for DST. The Pats and especially the Cowboys are great start DST off the bat.
15.6) TE Noah Fant, DEN
I have five spots to fill still, and nothing I must have and everything I want (rookie WRs) will be there, so I take Fant with express purpose to trade he or Waller for an emerging or stable WR if they pop Week 1.
16.7) WR Parris Campbell, IND
I’m taking the speedster WRs for fantasy goodness hopes.
17.6) WR Andy Isabella, ARI
Built for fantasy goodness.
18.7) WR Preston Williams, MIA
My favorite of the young rookie WRs to start right away, but he’s not being taken unless by me…so I waited. I shoulda took my #19 pick/player here or sooner under that theory.
19.6) RB Chase Edmonds, ARI
Had to backstop DJ in that offense…Edmonds would be nice there too. Almost took Dare Ogunbowale but he has a climb to get to relevance and then a bad team to play with anyways.
And, this is how it is done…my grade from the experts: https://draftwizard.fantasypros.com/nfl/mock-draft/NU903Kkg/a/metrics
I ended up with only 3 legit wide receivers (and six RBs) in a 3-WR start league…seems odd, but the value was at those RB gambles, and the young TEs, and then taking a batch of rookie WRs late and just needing one to hit soon for depth/options. If one of the RB gambles hits and a rookie WR pops…I’m golden.