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2021 Dynasty/Fantasy HOF Game Analysis: Steelers 16, Cowboys 3 (Subscriber Extra Notes)

Published:
August 7, 2021 11:22 AM
August 7, 2021 11:21 AM
Updated:
August 7, 2021 11:22 AM

2021 Dynasty/Fantasy HOF Game Analysis: Steelers 16, Cowboys 3 (Subscriber Extra Notes)

 

*See the usual game recap/notes/commentary on the FFM homepage. This next part is for subscribers, some deeper thoughts and sneaky sleepers I want you to know first before the general pop…

 

1) More Najee Harris talk…

I saw three transactions, post-HOF game, from FFMers that I think you’d find interesting…(all Dynasty deals)

FFMer trades their upcoming DRD 1.01 (Najee) for Jonathan Taylor

FFmer trades Najee for Nick Chubb, straight up.

FFMer trades Najee for Antonio Gibson and Deebo Samuel

 

Najee is smoking hot right now, and I’m very willing to trade him on that heat for the right deal – and that deal has to be for a stud RB in return, at a minimum.

Ask yourself, if you were in a Dynasty start up and you were picking between Najee, Chubb, Taylor and Gibson…who would you draft…if you couldn’t trade the player for a year after your pick, so you were picking the one you want to be stuck with for the next year/few years? It wouldn’t be Najee #1…or it shouldn’t be.

Yes, I know the touch count. But if you can avoid his bad O-Line and lack of athleticism (compared to the other guys) – then why not take the more obvious RBs and run with them and avoid the Najee risk? I know, Najee is a rookie and they are magical unicorns who might rush for 2,000 yards and catch 100+ passes…what if he’s ‘the one’? That’s what people thought/coveted on Clyde Edwards-Helaire in 2020. Josh Jacobs in 2019. Saquon Barkley in 2018. And Leonard Fournette in 2017. How hot are those guys now? You do get those are the #1 picks in the last four DRDs, right?

Chubb is only 2 years older than Najee. Taylor is a year younger than Najee. Gibson is half a year younger than Najee.

I don’t see the obvious reason for Najee to be better than Chubb-Taylor-Gibson right now. The case FOR Najee is volume, and that’s a legit factor in this…but I hate getting mediocre/decent players who are going to be top guys because of volume. Especially paying 1.01, white hot hype money for it. I’d rather go for the talent…especially if they have a great O-Line…especially with Najee having a bad O-Line and no Big Ben in 2022, potentially.

Based on talent assessments: 

I would have taken rookie Fournette over Najee. 

I would have taken rookie Jonathan Taylor over Najee. 

I would have taken pre-knee injury year Chubb over Najee (I faded post-knee injury Chubb too much). 

I never would have guessed Gibson getting a real shot like he has, so I would have taken Najee over rookie Gibson. 

Najee’s best attributes are ‘volume’ and ‘no one else obvious at RB in his draft year’. If Jonathan Taylor 2020 was coming out now…there would be debate over whether Najee would be the 1.01 – ‘volume’ and ‘perceived value’ might have made Najee #1 perhaps (like CEH was mostly over JT last year), but not as ‘slam dunk’ as it is in the reality of 2021 with no obvious three-down insta-starter at RB competing with him for the 1.01 title.

 

2) The Player that made me stop in my tracks and go ‘Whoa’ was Pittsburgh WR/punt returner Matthew Sexton.

I was just casually watching the game and working, when I saw this (it will open right to the play/his punt return): https://youtu.be/_GK9vxuwYxQ?t=154

That’s NFL eye-catching speed…or just legit NFL speed. He worked The Spring League developmental football in 2020, and was a special teams god returning kicks and being a gunner, etc.

It’s not just the punt return…very late in the game, Joshua Dobbs was flushed from the pocket and couldn’t find a receiver. Sexton was going into the back of the end zone behind a lot of terrific and Dobbs chucked it to him a yard+ out of bounds (and way up high) because there was no room to fit it in otherwise…and Sexton made a brilliant, leaping snatch of what was thought to be a throwaway pass (but was a yard out of bounds). I saw a pretty good little speedster in the return game and then some real hands in the passing game. He’s got a smaller Julian Edelman vibe about him…a 4.4+ runner at his 2020 Pro Day.

Sexton is low-level ‘one to watch’, especially when the Steelers cut him, and the Bills pick him up (my ‘no one cares’ bet…the Pats and Bills were working him out too when PIT signed him). If he makes the Steelers roster, he’s likely going to return kicks and might be a top guy there right away.

 

3) How hurt is Dak?

They keep saying he’ll be fine but there’s no real return date in sight. I think he’s going to try to rest his shoulder for a few weeks and hope to play through it – but this shoulder issue has the chance to linger. Then you got Dak coming off major knee surgery also trying to play through a shoulder issue. Not good for a QB.

I’m starting to downgrade Dak, and if he’s going to be ‘lesser than’ (or ‘out’ to start the 2021 season)…then Amari and CeeDee will suffer as well. And Zeke Elliott might get more touches but be less effective if Dak is known to be an issue…or if Dak is out, the Zeke is really at risk of disappointment (like last year).

We were first told that this injury was nothing and Dak would be back in a few days…but then it’s a week+ thing now. He might miss all of the preseason. That’s not good. The issue is healable but given his leg issues (post-major surgery) the fear is he’ll overcompensate for his knee and strain his back and shoulder…I think like Carson Wentz did when he had knee surgery 2018 and then aggravated/had a stress fracture in his back the next year (read that on the Dr. Chow injury insight/report on Dak).

We have to be on semi-major alert, avoiding Cowboys-things until we get better news…no?

 

4) The mystery WR that caught my attention for Dallas?

I came to watch Simi Fehoko and Brandon Smith, I left going…who is ‘that guy’, when I saw big #83 on the field.

That guy is Texas UDFA WR Brennan Eagles…6’4”/225 and runs a 4.6 +/- 40-time with a 7.0 +/- three-cone. He’s big and not so bad athletically (at a glance)…and you could see it in a glance during the HOF game. He had an OK career at Texas…never a star but looked the part…made some sweet catches. Might have a hands issue because I don’t see a lot to hate or explain his ‘meh’ college career with a good QB.

He’s buried in Dallas for sure, for now…but keep an eye on him to see if he develops next preseason.

Texas Highlights: https://youtu.be/ZTbteIM89Os

 

 

5) The mystery Steelers defender I liked from this game…

Man, I did not expect to see LB rookie Quincy Roche (6’3”/245, 4.7+ 40-time, 6th-round pick) be such an impressive pass rusher (because I had kinda written him off as a nobody/average). Not saying he’s Danielle Hunter or anything…one tackle, one sack later in the HOF game does not a star make, but he caught my attention quickly as someone moving around differently/better than most edge guys in this game.

I will move him up the DRD board and keep watch on him. Could be a flash in the pan vs. bad competition.

30.5 sacks, 54.0 TFLs in 4 years in college for Temple and then Miami, FL. 13.0 sacks in 2019 made him the American Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year. Transferred to Miami for his final CFB season. 




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