2021 Dynasty/Fantasy News, Notes, Rumors, Commentary 7/25/2021 (Rodgers, Ertz, Hurts, Mk. Thomas and more)
-- So, this whole ‘Oddsmakers dropping odds on Green Bay’ story that emerged Friday night due to increased rumors/’inside info’ that Aaron Rodgers is planning to retire ahead of Wednesday report day for training camp…
Why would he wait until then to retire? He avoids fines for not missing camp (which are steep now) and would have to only pay back some unearned signing bonus money (but might avoid that too)…the money meter starts clicking hard if Rodgers sits out camp vs. just retiring. He would then have a year off and hope to be traded for 2022, where he’d unretire as needed.
Is it going to happen…is he going to retire?
I do not have any underground contact/source insight on this one, but I’m taking my cues from the Sports Books – if they sense something is up, then I’d be worried…worried if I owned Rodgers or Davante Adams or Aaron Jones or Robert Tonyan for Fantasy/Dynasty right now.
Adams goes from a #1 WR overall to an argument where in the WR1 pecking order he does belong – but probably not in the top 5 as a minimum. Jordan Love is not very good/promising, in my book. He’s certainly no Aaron Rodgers. They may trade for Nick Foles, and that helps stop some of the bleeding…but not all of it/too much blood will spill without Rodgers.
Aaron Jones is not as devastated…he may see an increase in touches but a decrease in TDs and yards per carry and targets – so, a net ‘down’ effect.
Tonyan is D-E-A-D without Rodgers…a TE2. Allen Lazard is still an under-targeted WR3 hopeful.
My odds on Rodgers retiring before training camp?
55% = Retires
35% = Reports to camp
10% = Starts out by not going to camp
My odds on Rodgers being traded to another team in 2021?
85% = Not traded, left to sit out if he retires/sits out camp.
15% = Traded by Green Bay to another team before Week 1
We’ll see what happens this upcoming week. Isn’t football news/rumors/speculation great? Better than any TV series on the tube at any time.
-- Zach Ertz has not been traded to Buffalo, or anywhere else for that matter…which means two things:
1) There is no market for him at his current price.
2) No team is interested in him long term – Ertz wants a long-term deal, and he hoped he was so good/in demand that a team would trade for him and simultaneously sign him to a big extension otherwise. That isn’t happening.
Teams are banking on the Eagles (currently in the worst CAP position in the league) to cut Ertz to clear $5M+ in space…so, teams don’t feel the need to trade for him.
The moment Ertz is free, I think he’ll sign with the Indianapolis Colts…or possibly goes to Buffalo, but Indy is where his best fit is to try and have a big season and make progress towards a new deal for 2022+.
What is Ertz in Indy worth for FF? A lot…that’s why he’s high up on our ‘Undervalued Report’. I don’t love Ertz the player, but he’s been a top 3 TE working with Carson Wentz for years, and going back with Wentz, Reich, and in a dome…his ADP will soar upon signing with the Colts.
If you have Goedert in Dynasty, and I’ve said this dozens of time, you get/want Ertz cheap using ‘handcuff’ as a cover reason – and then when Ertz splits off and leaves, you got Goedert ascending without the Ertz shackle and Ertz the same vice-versa. A two-fer-one bump in value.
All the ‘Ertz is coming to camp to play 2021 with Philly’ is a smokescreen you have to use NOW before he gets cut/traded. He’s saying he’s coming back because he has 13+ million reasons to report back to Philly (and since no team is trading for him to give him an extension upfront).
NOW is the time to buy Ertz at a deeper discount if you wanna gamble that he gets cut (or traded cheap) to Indy, or maybe Buffalo.
-- Michael Thomas is expected to miss several weeks of the 2021 season due to an ankle surgery in June. He’s hoped to be back Week 7, after the Saints Week 6 BYE. That’s ‘hoped’.
I don’t think Thomas is all that fired up to play football, and his contract was ridiculous in 2019…$60M+ guaranteed, of which he still is owed $32.6M. He’s set for life. He’s a bit of a malcontent that the Saints found out AFTER he got paid, and now no one in the league wants him either (they’ve tried to trade him but there are no takers at his high rate of contract).
Ankle ligament surgery after issues last year – do you really think Thomas is coming back strong Week 7? Likely, he comes back slow and is at great risk of a reaggravation/it hampering him all 2021.
Look for the Saints to acquire a WR soon to protect themselves: Odell Beckham (if he medically is 100%), Cooper Kupp, JuJu Smith-Schuster are among the interesting names that could be rumored…but more likely it will be like a lesser-exciting name like: Christian Kirk or Anthony Miller or Randall Cobb or N’Keal Harry (which makes a ton of sense both sides), Jamison Crowder, etc.
All of this is NOT good news for Taysom Hill as a passer, but he may have to up his running to offset it. Without Thomas – is there a worse WR group than the New Orleans Saints? I’m telling you…Deonte Harris, watch out…if he can stay healthy.
-- Deshaun Watson to Philadelphia rumors?
Stop and ask yourself… Why would the Eagles trade for Deshaun Watson right now? No one knows what kind of suspension he’s going to get. And no one knows how bad tomorrow’s news or the three months from now news is going to be, etc. What if there surfaces a video tape? What if…a lot of things. A HUGE risk to take on Watson today.
You’d only make that trade if you could get Watson so cheap (of picks or whatever in exchange) that it was a no-brainer…and you still have all of Watson’s costs to deal with on top of the risk ($35M salary for 2022 alone). But that leads to the other question to stop and ask yourself…
Then why would the Texans just take anything in trade for Watson? If they are just dumping him because he’s an expensive problem…then they eat a bunch of contract, and shift a lot of contract to another team, but what will bottom fishing teams be offering/giving for this high-risk, high-cost QB? Not much. What…are the Eagles going to give three #1 picks for a QB who might be going to jail in 6 months or a year if something surfaces?
Watson is essentially untouchable/untradeable (reasonably). If he were in the NFL Draft with all this stuff surfacing, he’d be a 5th+ round pick, a low cost/easy cut flyer – but his current contract makes him one of the top paid players in the league. Why would any NFL team take this chance and then find out about another skeleton in 6 months?
Houston is better off to wait and see what the suspension is and then put Watson into counseling and then try to trade him in 2022, where he’d take a restructured deal to go somewhere…or find peace with the Texans and stay in Houston.
Houston would have to be blown away to make a move right now…and there is no logical reason for anyone to blow Houston away with an offer.
Not to mention…what is Philly trading for? A quarterback in 2021? No, a quarterback you hope for in 2022. So, you willingly make Jalen Hurts a lame duck 2021. The problem is – Houston wants Hurts back in any deal (according to my underground sources) and Philly then wouldn’t have a real QB when Watson gets suspended part or all of 2021.
I don’t think it makes any sense for Philly to trade for Watson, and if they do…it means Hurts is still starting in 2021. Or if they do a deal with Houston, Hurts goes to Houston to become the starter. Either way, Hurts is going to be starting in 2021…I assume with Philly.
For Fantasy, it’s a good time to try and shop cheap for Hurts on all these perpetual rumors of Philly is going to draft a QB…no, they are trading for Wilson…no, they are trading for Foles…no, they are trading for Watson. The media doesn’t see anything with Hurts, because they’re idiots, so all they do is spend time dreaming up scenarios for Philly to get a QB.
The Eagles have done everything to make Jalen Hurts their starter…and as the GM said after the 2020 NFL Draft, “He’s our Russell Wilson (franchise QB available day two) opportunity.” Philly destroyed their CAP and looked stupid for giving Carson Wentz a huge deal and then eating a bunch of it to get rid of him – and all with the fact that they had Hurts there, the guy they want to be their starter. They’ve gone through a lot to get Hurts installed and move everything else away (including coach)…but now they’re going to trade multiple #1 picks and Hurts for unknown-severity-criminal (allegedly) Deshaun Watson?
I mean, NFL GMs are stupid…there is that. But this would be about as stupid an offseason as a GM could have if the Eagles traded big for Watson. They won’t, and then the Texans aren’t taking .10 on the dollar to move him, when they might just freeze him for a year or outright cut him on a conduct clause.
Remember when the media guaranteed you Deshaun Watson was going to be a Patriot a year ago?
It’s a great time to go Jalen Hurts shopping/bottom fishing in 4pts per pass TD leagues.