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2022 Dynasty Offseason: Four Things Report for 5/4/2022

Published:
May 4, 2022 7:00 PM
May 4, 2022 6:59 PM
Updated:
May 4, 2022 7:00 PM

2022 Dynasty Offseason: Four Things Report for 5/4/2022

 

OK, the NFL Draft provided some ‘problems’ for several depth charts, individual established (or so we thought) players. We’ll hit some of the top ones of my interest here, but we will start with something that happened before the draft that was confusing/I hated…maybe…

 

-Thing #1: How Long Will Melvin Gordon Ruin My Fantasy Football Life?

When news hit that the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon, I was ticked off…ticked off for my Javonte FF purposes. For the NFL, it’s a smart move. You shouldn’t rely on just one RB and wear them out or assume they’ll never sprain an ankle and miss 2-3 games each season. More and more teams are going that way (an RBBC stable), and it’s obvious they are via observing this draft or recent free agency. There are rare few untouchable, gets-all-touches RBs left in the NFL. The Patriots went into the draft with Harris-Stevenson-White and added Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris. Good luck figuring that one out for FF 2022 and beyond. What the Patriots are doing is going to be what other NFL teams copy now and into the future.

I wanted to see the Gordon deal before I got too worked up. Melvin got a pretty basic, low-level contract…one that is designed more for him to make money on incentives – so, if Javonte goes down…Gordon has to pick up the workload, and that makes a ton of NFL sense.

Gordon is not being paid like he used to be. Melvin got a little better than Ronald Jones (to KC) contract…which was not as good as D’Onta Foreman’s contract, unless Gordon hits the incentives. Basically, no one really wanted Gordon…so he just took a basic deal where he was at.

I’m pretty sure, from the looks of the Gordon deal and from the new HC’s talk…Javonte will be ‘the guy’, whatever that means. No 50-50 split. Maybe a 70-30, 80-20.

The cool thing about this Gordon deal is – it looks like the masses think Melvin is being brought back to assume his same role…and, thus, Javonte’s ADP is slipping…his ‘love’ from his current owner is tarnished some. It’s an opportunity for those like me who think Javonte is one of the best-looking RBs in the NFL…a superstar waiting to happen…an RB1 for sure in FF 2022…a franchise RB.  

A DRD thought with this news…

I’d be willing to trade my 1.02 in the DRD for Javonte, straight up. And add trinkets to it if I needed to at the end of the deal…but hopefully I wouldn’t need to.

Would I trade the 1.01 for Javonte? No. But maybe yes…I like Javonte more than Breece Hall, but I know the market on Hall is much hotter. If you went to trade the 1.01 for Javonte, it would be 1.01 for Javonte + another really nice asset and maybe a 3rd item trinket/flier prospect.

As always, if you trade ANY 1st-round DRD, get a 4th-5th whatever pick back/thrown in coming to you. What we can do with later picks might be better than what we do with the 1st-rounder…and then you made any trade away of the 1st-rounder seem like nothing, you got stuff for essentially nothing (with the 1st-rounder) if you can hit on your later pick in replacement of your 1st-rounder…or that’s the hope anyway.

I don’t want any touch count competition for Javonte (or any of my RBs), but it’s the way of the world now, and this doesn’t look as bad as feared, looking at the new Gordon contract. It’s a blessing in disguise driving Javonte’s worldly value down some for more reasonable acquisition hopes, where I don’t already have him.

 

 

-Thing #2: Thanks, George Pickens…

I’ve been advocating we sell our shares in Diontae Johnson all offseason. You know the spiel – no Big Ben, no Diontae Johnson as an WR1 (in my book). No Big Ben means the best ROI is/was to sell Diontae. Some of you have done so already, and kudos to you. Nice execution.

I thought we had more time to work deals, but the NFL Draft raised us up Thursday…then pushed us off our perch a little bit Friday.

When the Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett, I was delighted. The move has been accepted wonderfully by the masses. Anything not Mitch Trubisky makes them happy.  Whatever Diontae’s value was the day before the NFL Draft, it ticked higher after day one of the Draft.

…and then there was day two.

The Steelers nab George Pickens in the late 2nd-round. I’m not sure it was their plan to do so, but he was falling in the draft…and fell right into their laps. The best WR, potentially, in the 2022 Draft is now a Steeler…joining Dionte and Chase. We’re back to an FF-annoying WR trio again.

For Diontae, his value may still hang in there for Dynasty for a little bit…it’s holding up some so far, like he’s a #12-16 Dynasty WR now. Prior to the NFL Draft, he was a #10-14 type WR in the Dynasty pecking order. This Pickens move hasn’t stung him too bad for valuation, yet…but it’s hit a little. I think as people saw Pickens fall in the draft, and they didn’t love him all that much anyway going in (not a lot of buzz on him, per se, like the Ohio State or Alabama guys, etc.), this draft fall makes it look/feel like Pickens is a wounded bird, a possible problem…a generic young, hopeful WR prospect…not as well perceived as like if (let’s say) one of the Ohio State boys (Olave, Wilson) had really landed with the Steelers somehow in the 1st-round.

The FF masses don’t seem too affected by Pickens entering the fray…yet. I, on the other hand, was LIVID. This has the potential to be a big (or small or medium) problem for my Diontae Johnson and/or Chase Claypool Dynasty ownership. The Steelers needed a million things, and another WR did not seem to be one of the million. With massive O-Line issues, the Steelers drafted two WRs this Draft…and zero O-Linemen. I did not see it coming…I did not think it even possible. Mike Tomlin and friends continue to run their team into the ground, which is fine by me – but a lot of us have a Diontae Johnson still to sell-off, and Diontae just took this hit to his Dynasty value that I didn’t need right now, or ever.

Fortunately, the Pickens move hasn’t fully scared the majority…yet. But we need to move fast before the training camp reports come out about how great Pickens looks, blah-blah-blah.

Things that are not good for Diontae Johnson, in reality, for 2022: No Big Ben, a rookie QB, Mike Tomlin and Brian Flores’s awful offensive minds coming together as one, Chase Claypool existing, George Pickens existing, and to make matters worse…Calvin Austin drafted in the 4th-round. The walls are closing in on Diontae Johnson’s value, and his reality.

Best case is – Diontae is traded this summer to somewhere good, which I think is possible (20%) – but then he’s in a whole new situation, with still no Big Ben. Diontae Johnson just isn’t that good to just drop him anywhere and expect gold. Diontae is fine, but his value came from Diontae + Ben…Ben over-targeting him because he couldn’t get the ball anywhere else. Diontae's days as a Steeler are numbered -- either gets traded in 2022…or he just goes in free agency in 2023. Diontae on the move could land OK…or land ‘bad’. We’ve lost all reliability and predictability on Diontae.

We’ve got to trade Diontae…is my charge. But we have to keep our cool going about it, even though the clock is ticking. He’s a WR1.5 valuation to trade off…I want to get as close to WR1 value as I can and stave off closer to WR2 value in a trade-off.

And then there’s Chase Claypool. I’m still OK with Chase long-term, but this is risk for him too…when Diontae is gone (2022 or 2023), Claypool is probably going into the slot role…in fact, they’re already talking about it (the O-C) out loud (which does not help Diontae either). Claypool’s 2022 is probably going to be a disappointment IF Diontae is still there and with the addition of Pickens. If Diontae goes, then this could get interesting for Claypool as the slot/main target…and he’s shined in place of Diontae in the slot in the past.

Claypool is a tough, annoying ‘hold’ for Dynasty…for me.

Diontae is a ‘sell’.

And Pickens, I like a lot, but he’s going to be an outside receiver on a bad passing team in 2022 (as a 3rd-4th-5th option early on) and then a 2023 starter on (likely) a weak passing team (because of the weak passing game offense Tomlin runs).

https://youtu.be/gj7aOjkJqz0

 

 

-Thing #3: Penny v. Kenny…

It’s a strange thing…Seattle gave Penny a nice free agent contract…but it was just for one-year ($5M)…but one year that’s all GUARANTEED. Do you know, in terms of top paid for JUST 2022…Penny is the 12th highest paid RB in the league (again, for just 2022). Side note: the #10 highest paid RB for JUST 2022 is Chris Carson, but he can be cut for a $3M hit only…and that’s still kinda expensive in RB terms.

Rashaad Penny was paid to be a real starter.

But then they drafted Kenneth Walker at #41…that’s drafting with a purpose, not a value-add later in the draft.

Penny’s deal is a one-year…Walker can be the future…but Penny can be the now…but Seattle is not as invested in Penny’s future…but maybe they could be if Penny goes off again.

I think it’s Penny’s job to lose for 2022…but Walker’s rookie aura is going to bring pressure. But we should see them start with Penny Week 1 and for several weeks into the season before Walker could make a bigger push (as Seattle’s team is collapsing). If Penny can stay healthy (always a big IF), then Penny will likely get the first chance to be ‘the man’…of which he showed he could be last year, and then got paid well to be for 2022. And then perhaps he doesn’t give up the job? Walker’s arrival is not the assured death for Penny.

 

 

-Thing #4: What Superhero would you be?

So, I’m driving to the grocery store when whatever I was listening to mentioned something about – ‘If you could be any type of superhero, which one would you be?’…which led to an immediate discussion of how stupid it would be to choose to be Batman because he has no real ‘powers’ – that he’s just a rich dude with gadgets. It’s a discussion I’ve heard before, I’m sure you have as well.

But still I got sucked in for a moment… So, in my head I was like…of course, I’d go with Superman. I’d just cut to the chase with my choice – able to fly, elite strength, X-Ray vision, still human-looking, and you get to work at a newspaper company (I guess Superman’s powers couldn’t save the newspaper industry).

But then I thought… All those superpowers would be cool – but it would suck having to wear the Superman uniform under my clothes all day, just waiting for the moment where I’d have to tear away my suit and take to the skies to save some humans somewhere. Who wants to wear a suit all day to begin with…and then you have a full leotard underneath to boot? My wife likes to wear yoga pants all day, so maybe it’s not so bad…but she wouldn’t want to wear them under a pants suit all day at work.

Which then made me think… We’ve had some weird society norms in our nation’s history. There was a time, back when the world was in black-and-white, where men more suits as casual wear…as every wear. You didn’t step outside without a suit on, if you were a male, back a few decades ago…like if you were going to get your mail or do some yard work, you slapped on a suit and tie with dress shoes, and maybe a fedora and off you went. How did an entire nation think that was comfortable? But you were an outcast if you weren’t rocking a suit. I’m not sure I could’ve made it in that society. I might have become a hippie just for the clothing options.

I remember so many times that Superman was at work or walking the streets, and an emergency sprung up…and off he’d go somewhere clandestine to ditch his suit and take to the sky. It was always in a hurry, obviously. No time for an orderly change of clothes…folding them neatly and putting them on hangers…so, I guess his suit was just left in a pile, and was magically still there where he left it upon return from saving the day? How could Superman subtly go back and retrieve his suit from a phone booth, or alleyway, or office bathroom? No one questioned these suit pieces and shoes just lying around in a crumpled mess?

And let’s say he did tear off his clothes and take to the skies, and then was fortunate enough that his stashed suit was still where he left it – when he went to put it back on, it was probably a wrinkled mess. Yet, I never saw Clark without a sharp pressed suit on. But I don’t think I ever saw Clark with a giant walk-in closet with a thousand similar suits so he could just fly home and grab the same suit he had on earlier so that no one was the wiser back at The Daily Planet. Where would Clark Kent get all that money to buy all those suits – and if he had a secret stash of cash and a lavish closet of suits -- wouldn’t it blow his cover in some way? Did a local suit maker never question why this mild-mannered junior reporter was ordering 50 of the same suits every few months? Did the local dry cleaner love Clark Kent’s business?

I hated the whole dress clothes buying, maintaining, and going to the dry cleaner process as it was…back when I used to have to wear dress clothes for corporate work (not like my current company’s mandated shorts and t-shirt everyday). If I were Superman, I’d imagine I’d have so many dry-cleaning tickets to keep up with it would drive me insane.

And then you go from wearing cramped dress shoes all day, as was the norm, to then suddenly you have calf high rubber boots on as Superman? I can suspend disbelief and get that the Superman costume was under his suit all along. I get that they claim his cape was a tightly folded pocket square sized thing that magically was not creased or wrinkled once opened/applied. But where did the big red boots come from on the fly? Who wants to wear rubber boots when you might be about to throw down with some bad elements? Why does Superman even need protective-from-the-element boots…the guy can take a bullet no problem, but he can’t get his feet wet?

You know what…it’s not worth it. Too much trouble to be Superman. Too many haberdashery considerations and issues to keep up with. Maybe I’ll just be Batman and stay in my cave 24/7 and watch the world fall apart on all my TV monitors and let Alfred make and bring me food all day long. Beats going to some dumb ice fortress of solitude when you need a moment.

https://youtu.be/eQvVxY20yOY

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