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2022 Dynasty Offseason: Four Things Report for 6/22/2022

Published:
June 22, 2022 3:54 PM
June 22, 2022 3:48 PM
Updated:
June 22, 2022 3:54 PM

2022 Dynasty Offseason: Four Things Report for 6/22/2022

 

-Thing #1: Jalen Hurts Love…

Here’s the Jalen Hurts sentiment for the past two years…

-2020 football analysts thought he was a lame runner-thrower who wouldn’t make it in the NFL.

-2020 the Eagles drafted him in the 2nd-round and everyone from analysts and Eagles’ fans whined and cried about it.

-2020, late season, Hurts replaces Wentz and has some moments…analysts and most Philly fans are not impressed.

-2021 offseason…Wentz traded away and Philly did nothing to trade for a QB or draft a QB …they stuck by Hurts.

-2021 season…the Eagles stick with Hurts and make the playoffs.

-2022 offseason… nothing but trade for a QB and draft a QB rumors to replace Hurts, again. Neither happens.

The media still wants Hurts’ scalp…they hate him for whatever reason. I think it’s because Hurts has defied the media/analysts. However…

You know who is finally coming around on Hurts? The group that’s usually a step ahead of the analysts on QBs…the Fantasy community. There is starting to form a ‘love’ for Jalen Hurts in the FF-marketplace, from my sense of things/my finger on the pulse.

Fantasy players usually follow the NFL analysts and ‘draft pick levels’ AT FIRST on QBs…but the FF players are the first to smell a problem and turn while the analyst’s defend and hold onto the bad position. FF players were all about ‘generational’ Trevor Lawrence…but one year later they are not into it, but the analysts are still saying ‘generational’. FF players bought into Tua and Darnold at first…but were out on them quickly, while the football intelligentsia kept/keeps pushing them.

I mention all this to say – you know I was WAY ahead of the Hurts curve right out of college and proclaiming him to topple Wentz in-season as a rookie, and it happened. We all prospered on a disrespected/cheap Hurts for FF last preseason. Now, the bargain window is closed. If you can trade cheap for him from somewhere…take it, it’s a changing marketplace with only a few non-believers (for FF).

But also, many of you (Dynasty) possess Hurts from last year – and you are, or you will be seeing unsolicited (and solicited) trade offers for him…cheap/bad deals, because people are always trying to bottom fish…and as if you don’t know Hurts’ value. So, warning…Hurts deals are headed your way…and if you want to move him, it should be him as a top 5 FF QB, or you’re being disrespected. It’s a sign of the growing love for Hurts – unsolicited deals heading your way with ‘oh by the way’ Hurts thrown in.

Just because he’s probably your #2 FF QB, because you’re smart…it doesn’t mean others get him at some discount like he’s useless to us because of our QB riches. A full QB room of QB1s is the goal. Too bad if THEY don’t even have one decent QB1. ..that doesn’t entitle them to Hurts at a discount. This isn’t socialism.

 

 

-Thing #2: The Rise of Kyle Philips…

You might have noticed another bump up for Kyle Philips in our 2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings. He’s closing in on our top 12. You don’t need to take him anywhere near that early, but he has cemented his place as the rookie I want after my typical Allgeier-Woods maneuvering (see all my DRD mocks for the plans I’m executing on that if you haven’t already).

The tape of Philips that I am seeing from OTAs…the words I’m hearing from sources…it’s all my best hopes for him out of the gates. Even some of the mainstream are slowly, very slowly starting to wake up on him – from total ignoring to now mentioning he might play a role (it’s a start). Actually, I need the mainstream to stay asleep on him so we can all steal him in every place we want him.

The window has opened with Tennessee for Philips to be a shock 2022 breakout performer. Julio and AJB are gone. Robert Woods may not be 100%...and is ‘getting up there’. Treylon Burks has as many ‘concern’ whispers right now as Philips has ‘sleeper’ whispers.

There may be no better route runner ability from the 2022 NFL Draft class among WRs than Kyle Philips…a cross between Hunter Renfrow and Cooper Kupp. The difference in any of these types of WRs being – will the coaching staff and QB embrace them or treat them as a side item, occasional luxury? I think Mike Vrabel is not one to suffer fools or be slave to ‘draft status’. I think Philips can win his heart/mind/trust quickly a la a new Julian Edelman for a coach that knows what that really means.

 

 

-Thing #3: Present Value vs. Future Value…

Economically, I’m not sure I’m going to use those terms ‘Present Value’ and ‘Future Value’ properly for a Fantasy player value discussion…but I think you’ll catch my drift.

So, the other day, I was asked by someone about a Dynasty trade – (receive) Adam Thielen for (send) Brandon Aiyuk. Straight up. Half PPR.

What side would you be on?

My handy-dandy Dynasty rankings would say Aiyuk is more valuable than Adam Thielen, in Dynasty. I think most people reading this, their reaction would be a lean towards Aiyuk as well. BUT there is also a hesitation – what if Aiyuk is never any better than a rando WR2-3…and I know the clock is ticking on Thielen, but he might be in for a nice WR1-2 run in 2022/for one more season.

You might lean Aiyuk (if you do) because you are leaning on ‘the future’…one where Aiyuk might be a WR1-2 but also is an asset of some kind who has a useful life for many years ahead. BUT there’s also some ‘risk’ to be priced in – what if Aiyuk sucks like he did early 2021 season…what if Trey Lance is no good for FF WRs and Deebo gets the gold and Aiyuk is a random ‘other’ WR target?

You pause on taking the Aiyuk side because you see the current value of Thielen, what you can use him for in 2022 might be a great assist to your title run.

So, what’s the right Dynasty call? Aiyuk or Thielen?

There is no immediate ‘right answer’. Aiyuk makes more sense with a 3-5+ year view, because Thielen is probably done (effectively) after this season…if he doesn’t begin the breakdown process this season. But if you’re a team that’s definitely a title contender and you have a gaggle of WR prospects you like already (as most Dyno FFMers do) then you’re more in position to chase the present value…the thing that helps right now, future be damned. You’ll get to the future…in the future. We got a title to win now.

I write all this to pontificate…

There is a value, almost a hidden value in playing fantasy with current value players and forgoing some future value ones – because, in my opinion, Dynasty GMs are always so busy looking at the future that they totally cough up and underrate the ‘current’. It’s why people love ‘draft picks’ so much. OH, THE POSSIBILITIES. There’s nothing wrong with a boring, old Adam Thielen or Travis Kelce. You won’t even remember the deal you made today in 3-4 years, the one where you dealt Brandon Aiyuk or Jerry Jeudy or Elijah Mitchell (random names) in the current.

We act like the single greatest crime in Dynasty is ‘getting/having an older player right into the year they start to fall’. We always expect/want to time the market where we trade off older players at THEE perfect time. It’s not possible…or, it’s luck if you do.

Conversely, oddly, the greatest achievement in Dynasty we think – trading cheap for some young thing and that guy takes off to stardom and we feel like we won the title of ‘smartest FF GM ever’…and it is definitely what we want to do often.

BUT…

Are we trying to win ‘smart guy’ awards every so often – or are we trying to win the Fantasy title THIS year?

I’m not saying trade all ‘future’ for all ‘elder’ players to help the title run, but don’t do the opposite just for the sake of ‘managing the roster’. There’s a time and place to dump players but ‘aging’ is not necessarily the boogeyman we’re trying to beat.

Tie goes to the runner…a 50-50 conundrum in a trade, then the Dynasty tie goes to wanting the younger player perhaps, but sometimes you forgo the younger promise for the ‘money’ in your hand right now. Tom Brady has Dynasty value at age 45+ because he might be a top 3-5 FF QB this season, and then retire…which Brady’s one last season (if) will be more valuable than Baker Mayfield or Carson Wentz or Derek Carr or Mac Jones being a boring QB2 the rest of their careers. Five more years of Derek Carr will likely FF-never be as valuable as this one upcoming season of Tom Brady. Ten years of Matt Corral will likely never be as FF-valuable as just 2022 alone Tom Brady. Not to mention once Brady is done, you’ll fill his spot with another undervalued QB and that QB could be worth as much/more than any of the QB2s that I just mentioned.

I’m not an ageist in Fantasy Football…or I’m trying not to be. I acknowledge it is in the equation evaluating Tyreek Hill vs. Ja’Marr Chase (for example) but I’m trying to be more of a realist – more present value, and especially when present value is always on sale and future value is always marked up with a premium.

It would be too complicated to do, probably, but I’ll bet there’s a psychological chart/study to be had in the universe that shows (especially for RBs) that the perception/value/desire for a Fantasy player wanes as each year goes by, despite them consistently performing or with similar expectations.

David Montgomery was the burning desire of many his rookie season…why, he’s the future of the Bears backfield!!! Well…he got there, he is RIGHT NOW…and no one gives a $#!&. As the years go by, DM has gone from hot rookie to boring veteran (of three whole seasons).

I like Saquon Barkley as much today as I did 2-3 years ago…same hope and concerns. But he’s an RB2 now…at the ripe old age of 25…but 2-3 years ago he was running as the top 1-2-3 player in the entire Dynasty game.

QBs and TEs seem to have a different age situation than RBs and WRs. They seem to last longer, keep performances up as they age compared to RBs and WRs.

There’s value in gravitating to the assets people are turning their nose up at because someone on the internet has some cool chart on (like) WR performance by age. I don’t care about the data from 20 years ago…or 10 years ago…or five years ago on WRs. The game is changing too fast. WR depth charts have exploded with talent. QBs have never been better across the league than right now. We got stem cell therapies and new workout and nutrition technologies. The NFL has never been like this. The past is not prologue…if you go too far ‘past’.

‘Age’ is just a number to consider right now…one ingredient in a dish with many ingredients, and most of them more important than age. And the advancements in health and science are moving so fast, you couldn’t figure out ‘age’ angles for the future if you wanted to.

I’m not pushing an all-older player lineup – just more a tip/consideration to not overvalue youth and thus radically undervalue older, highly productive players – because it’s in our DNA to do just that. It’s counterintuitive…so we need to keep it in the forefront and talk about it often.

I need to give this theory/concept a name to shorthand it for us.

Let me walk away from this piece and let the Spirit speak to me on what I could name this to shorthand it for us. OK, walking away now.

Age-Rage? Ehhh.

Bird in Hand theory? Maybe.

Wimpy Theory? https://youtu.be/xs1kLkxOmqY

 

 

-Thing #4: Father’s Day Fail…

So, for my Father’s Day gift my wife and son colluded to take me to a local ‘game center’…like a Dave & Busters type of place but with more stuff – bowling, skeeball, air hockey, video games, food, etc., like a Chucky Cheese for immature adults like myself.

But the main reason we went was the family set up an ‘Escape Room’ event for us/me as an ‘event’. I’ve never done anything like that. I’ve always wanted to try. So, they booked the ‘beginners’ 30-minute version for our first foray…and at the appointed time, our threesome entered the Old West bank robbery themed Escape Room.

So far, so good.

Not for long.

We got the basic instructions. We needed to figure out the way to get past the opening room to get to the next room which was the more complicated and then get to the final room to ‘escape’…to figure out the mystery/clues and get out before our time ran out. We were also told to hit a certain button if we were struggling, and we’d get clues to help.

We were sure we wouldn’t need that help.

We were wrong…so very wrong.

So, the beginning stage/room of this ‘mystery’ we thought would be easy…we assumed. Something easy to get us going on our way. Nope. Not for us. There was a ‘message’ left on the ground that was a clue, but we couldn’t figure out what it meant. We were surrounded by doors that would not open and a padlocked gate that seemed like the next place to go…but we had to figure out the code on the lock from the clues.

Three grown people reading a cryptic message trying to interpret what it meant…and not able to do so. I watched the new Batman movie a few weeks ago, every time the Riddler left him a hidden message/clue, Batman answered it in two seconds. We were looking at our Riddler clue for 5+ minutes and were giving bizarre interpretations that were all wrong, way wrong. I wanted to hit the button for help…but everyone shot that down because that would be admitting defeat too quickly. I abided by their wishes for about another minute or so of getting nowhere and then I went and just hit the button…sick of standing in this room with no progress.

Over the speakers we got an audio clue…that was cryptic and didn’t make sense and we wasted another 5 minutes trying to interpret it. So, I hit the button for help again…a more detailed clue…given in the manner of ‘hey, idiots…’. We figured out the first clue (because it was essentially handed to us), but were stuck with what to do next/with this newfound clue. I was starting to get upset – because nothing even made remote sense. Another call for help – and we were basically told what to do. We had to do some series of timed knocking on a door and pushing a button in a sequence that was illogical and took us 10+ tries to figure out the pattern…and when we got it right, we didn’t even know how we did it. We were just throwing darts.

Half the 30 minutes gone…just to get past the ‘easy’ room/stage. But now our confidence was on the upswing. We chased into the next room ready to win.

We didn’t make it out of that room.

There were fragments of things to try to figure out in this 2nd room but none of it made any real sense…and we didn’t get close to escaping it (I don’t think). Frustration mounted in this new room/in the final 15 minutes. I thought all day that this ‘Escape Room’ idea might backfire because we’d all get time pressured and hyped to ‘win’, and people might get snappy and say something terse at each other. I worried it might be me that said the dumb thing. But all I felt like as the time wound down was – this is stupid. Who cares if I solve a dopey ‘this means this’ set of clues and figuring my way out of a fake scenario? I get all the mental challenge I want in life by trying to figure out NFL team touch counts and efficiencies and new coach impacts and depth charts and trades and sit-starts and rookie’s futures…figuring out cryptic codes to unlock something to get to the next clue in an Escape Room that yields no real reward – it pales in comparison to my day-to-day.

We left the Escape Room defeated…and confused. We went into it with all these high hopes and intrigue but left thinking – why is this a thing? Maybe we’re not too swift as a family. The good news is, no one got mad at anyone else as we frantically tried to piece clues together…it got close to testy once or twice but never did. I credit myself for realizing in the heat of trying to figure things out…I sensed a growing urgency and competitiveness in our group, and a sense of hopelessness flailing away frustration. I’m usually the guy, the dad that steps and says ‘what we need to do is…’ but I self-evaluated that this Escape Room was for fun…and was meaningless…and who cares if we failed. So, I just kinda shutdown mentally, watched/willed the clock to tick faster to go out and play more air hockey, which was 10x more enjoyable and good-natured competitive among us.

I walk away from my first Escape Room experience with the thought – good, now I’ll never need to do this again. However, I also walked away with a fun/silly experience we still laugh about – how ‘stupid’ we all must be because we couldn’t barely get past the first room without detailed help/hints from the staff. There are probably better Escape Room experiences than what we had, and that maybe we would have enjoyed more -- but I’ll probably never find out because this first foray left me not wanting more.

I recommend trying it as an ‘experience’ for a family group of 3 or more. It will definitely be memorable…and that’s a beautiful thing. Even if our collective long-term memory of the event is about questioning our collective IQ. 

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