Deeper Notes From The NFL Draft (Fantasy Impacts and Strategy Affects) *1 of 2/Arizona Only…
Going through my draft notes from the last few days, and after going through the team grade process and the Dynasty Rookie Draft foundation…here are a few key takeaways I’m talking about, contemplating, and/or putting into action (in no particular order):
*I have so many notes, I’m releasing one based just on my Arizona thoughts, and a second coming with all the other teams/notes/rumors, etc.
Arizona-related only notes…
-- When Kyler Murray was taken #1 overall, my heart was pleased…I based the whole pre-draft Dynasty and Best Ball strategy around him. The B+/A- passer/‘A’ runner going to an A+ offense situation. The near-perfect fantasy storm.
The pre-draft thought of Murray made me see Larry Fitzgerald as a sleeper and Christian Kirk as a beloved super-sleeper, cornerstone WR of the fantasy-future.
When Arizona then drafted Andy Isabella, I was over-the-moon…for Izzy and Murray, and for the love of ‘offense’.
When Arizona then drafted Hakeem Butler, I was wondering if Arizona was using my draft board to take offensive players. Butler and Isabella are two of my four highest-rated WRs for the 2019 NFL Draft. Butler and Isabella drafted for Murray? Everyone wins!!!
…and then it quickly dawned on me… There cannot be four WRs who are hot out of the gates for 2019 fantasy! Who is the odd man out? Four great WR talents means there is not ‘one’ to hang your hat on as ‘the guy’…and we have four guesses at who the star one is in any given week! In another year, if Fitz retires, it’s then three great receivers to pick from week-to-week…that’s easier, but for 2019 – where does my Arizona WR love go? Not to mention where does David Johnson fall in this high-octane passing game?
I’ll have my early predictions/projections set later this week, but…honestly…I have no idea who Murray will lean on. In the frenetic style that Kyler brings…Isabella as a trusted hand that can turn short passes into long TDs, or just break off a route and beat any DB – is it Izzy I should love? Butler is such a great ‘go get it’ option…when everything is chaotic trying to defend Murray…is it him? Christian Kirk is awesome…but is he the right ‘type’ to hum with Kyler? Will it be the rookies over the vets in 2019, or will Fitz be the Obi-Wan Kenobi? Does DJ get stiffed some in the passing game…but then score 20+ TDs in the highest-scoring offense in the league/league history?
It’s all very exciting, but as a fantasy analyst…I have a loaded gun with a bunch of targets to try to figure out which one to shoot at…or, more difficult, which one to leave alone.
-- If you have the 1.01 and/or you believe you are getting Kyler Murray soon, with deeper rosters, and if you’re not clogged with QB talent, you have to consider picking up Brett Hundley as the Murray handcuff…Hundley is a big hit on Murray away from taking over the reigns for the most productive/producing offense in the NFL.
Grab him now if waivers are open.
Draft him late in Best Ball to pair with Murray (or as a solo flyer super late).
Even if you don’t want/have a shot at Murray…holding Hundley is a savvy move.
-- My sense from all the media coverage of the draft and post-draft analysis, the biggest story for ‘them’ is ‘feeling bad’ for Josh Rosen, and that emotion is turning into their central analysis of the 2019 NFL Draft -- how Rosen got screwed, but he’s better off where he was wanted, Miami is so smart, etc.
Here’s the underlying mood that’s more important to sense – all the sob stories for Rosen are also generating underlying hatred for what caused it…hatred if the Cardinals franchise, their new head coach, and too-short-to-succeed Kyler Murray.
If THEY build a narrative that Rosen was screwed and is better off away from Arizona, then that means they cannot pre-praise Arizona or Kyler Murray…which will manifest in poor win-loss predictions, a hoped-for Kyler failure because he’s a ‘system’ QB and he’s ‘too small’, and his coach is a college loser who will spread his loser ways to the entirety of Arizona. All of which will help keep Arizona’s over/under win total down and Murray’s dynasty rankings around #10-#15 for analysts.
However, ‘we the people’ aren’t going to buy it. I’ve said that since February – Murray is the ‘star’ of the 2019 NFL Draft, the one the people love (like they loved Baker more than Darnold, but the stuffy establishment didn’t). I’m already seeing Murray going as high as 1.06 and around 1.10 as an average in dynasty drafts held Sunday. He hasn’t begun to move up the charts yet. Drafting this next week or two…likely a 1.03-4-5 should do it to land Murray without fears.
It looks like Jacobs is the clear #1, Harry trending an average at #2-3, Metcalf averaging #3 (but taken all over, high/low), and David Montgomery is everyone’s sleeper (absolutely not mine, but THEIRS).
Get two top 4-5-6 picks and get Murray-Campbell out of this draft…and you’ll hit a mega-homerun.
Oddly, Andy Isabella isn’t going in 1st-rounds hardly at all.
Usually, I want out of the Dynasty Rookie Draft, but now I want in. It’s all about getting Murray, and then whatever else I do is gravy. Because Josh Jacobs is a boring #1 for people, that pick is easier to get than normal…as is #2-3-4-5. Trade your 2020 #1 as part of a deal to get into the 2019 top 5 or so in this year’s rookie draft. You do whatever it takes to get Kyler.
If you rookie draft in a few months, what’s ADP trending now won’t matter as much…the media will change and the masses will see more Kyler news/headlines (because he’s so interesting as a event), and things will dawn on the media and fans…and guys like Kyler and Parris will move up in rookie draft ADPs and rankings. Drafting the next week or two or three…after the football media cranks out their terrible/flawed/unstudied ‘instant reactions’ they’re all going on a two/three-month siesta, which is good for those drafting in the next 1-4-8 weeks. The earlier you draft the better deal/lesser pick it will take for Murray.