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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (6/16/2019) *Insider bonus

Published:
June 16, 2019 11:30 PM
June 16, 2019 11:27 PM
Updated:
June 16, 2019 11:30 PM
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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (6/16/2019) *Insider bonus

Throughout June and through the preseason, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every day or two as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.

*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…

-- You’ll see a thousand-and-one reports on every player impressing during OTAs and quips about backups making a move for playing time. They can’t all be real or really about to happen. However, two reports on backup RBs you’ve seen, I believe have some real ‘weight’ behind the rumors/hype/fluff…

(1) The Chiefs beat writers are discovering Carlos Hyde is not just a neat backup.

I know the team knew this prior, but it’s funny watching the beat writers think Hyde as a legit RB just dawned on KC…and it’s because the beat writers all share the same brain and they didn’t believe the purposeful signing of established three-down lead RB for two different teams the past few years meant anything to the RB pecking order compared to  ‘a few good games’ thought-to-be-lead-RB Damien Williams.

You know who makes more money this year and got about the same amount of guaranteed money in their recently signed deals? Yep, Carlos Hyde. Williams was extended for three-years last year, but for not much of a deal (as has become standard fare for middle of the road/interchangeable RBs).

It’s going to be very easy for the Chiefs to push Carlos Hyde as the starter at some point this preseason. They are not overly, fiscally invested in Williams (nor with Hyde). They can truly go ‘best RB wins’ this summer. And Hyde has all the experience and production compared to Williams.

The Hyde murmurs means a lot more than we’ve been told…

(2) The Patriots beat writers are discovering that Damien Harris is not just a future developmental.

Hey, surprise! The Patriots took the best Alabama RB in the draft…the guy who started and took the most touches/snaps in most all their games last year over Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris – and they took him knowing he was a pretty good talent, and a guy who could work right away!

The media is enamored/confused with this story because with their head’s so far up Josh Jacobs’s ass they decided that meant Damien Harris could not be shown near the same respect what Jacobs would get. It never made sense to me.

Harris, for his part, is talented…a three-down back who can work between the tackles, take runs to the outside and make big plays as a runner, and is also a terrific receiving back – and he’s exponentially better all-around than Sony Michel. And not that Michel is bad, but Harris is better…and has a healthier knee/body.

The media thinks Harris’s OTA rise is a blip because Michel isn’t 100%, so they are looking right past the straight-line obvious path…Damien Harris is the best all-around RB on the Patriots. If Michel is having medical issues…even more obvious Harris could be the starter for Week 1/all of 2019 and beyond.

You wondered why the Patriots would draft Harris with Michel-White-Burkhead and the ability to get any retread/discarded RB they wanted…it’s not for nothing they CHOSE Harris…

-- One of the most fascinating things I’ve seen this month…

I saw a general fan poll conducted of the top 10-15 1st-round draft picks from 2019…the poll asked the fans to vote for the most likely to ‘bust’.

The #1 most likely to bust was Daniel Jones, and that was no surprise. However, the #2 was a semi-shock to me…

#2 most likely to bust, only a few percentage points behind Jones (and the top two accounted for like 80% of the voting), was Kyler Murray.

At first, I was mad at the ignorance of ‘fans’…then I laughed at the sheer stupidity of ‘people’ (as a football snob)…then it got me thinking… Part of the reason, today, that the masses haven’t fully embraced Murray for fantasy is that they have been brainwashed into thinking ‘any old QB will do’ (as they pursue 19 RBs for their 15-man roster). The fantasy experts have sold them on an illogical myth. The other part of this…about a-third of the fans just think he’s a ‘too small, system, runner-first’ doomed to fail QB without really considering his case/tape, etc.

That last part is important.

Why?

You know how much FF-stock we’re putting into Kyler right now? I assume you’re up to speed even if you’re newer to FFM/CFM. Not all of you have been able to draft Murray for various reasons in Dynasty Rookie Drafts. This is a reminder – he’s available in trade somewhat reasonably too, if you missed out, unless an FFM’er holds him. If you missed, you have about another 30-day window before the big problem for acquiring Murray happens…the lazy mainstream sites like ESPN, NFL Network are soon going to figure out what we did in February – Murray’s style/talent + Kingsbury = fantasy gold. When THEY start taking about it, Murray’s going from #8-14 QB off best ball/redraft today to top 3-5 off the board…and then his #5-8 overall draft range in rookie drafts will shrink to him going #1-3 overall (mostly #2-3, I think).

It’s why I’ve been saying for months, especially for August drafters, you need to move up in rookie drafts to 1.01-1.02-1.03 to get him. People aren’t that excited by Jacobs-Harry at the top, so this is the perfect storm year to get to #1-2 semi-reasonably.

And as I have been saying…you do whatever you have to land Murray in 4pts per passing leagues, and pretty much that in 6pts per passing TD leagues as well.

Murray is the generational fantasy asset, not Saquon Barkley. Don’t miss it.

If you have Mahomes-Mayfield or one of those two and Jared Goff (6pts per pass TD leagues), I get it’s hard to make room. It’s not as pressing for you. 4pts per pass TD leagues…you gotta have Murray.

-- The Jaguars have told Jalen Ramsey he’s not getting an early contract extension. I think they are concerned with his attitude, and what would happen once ‘paid’. I also believe they are looking at this as – this will motivate Ramsey to be great this year, and they’ll deal with him and his contract and attitude in 2020. Let’s try to win it all now, with Ramsey playing for show for a new contract somewhere/anywhere, and they’ll see what we do -- probably a Franchise Tag fight down the line.

This is great news for those betting on the Jags-DST this season, we want Ramsey’s head in playing well -- and more so great for those of us playing the 7.5 ‘over’ win total heavy as bettors. Ramsey is second only to Foles in importance to making the Jags Super Bowl threats.

-- I am not kidding when I predict that the football media is not going to rest on Tyreek Hill not being guilty of breaking his child’s arm. They all ran off a cliff and convicted him in the court of public opinion months ago, and now they look stupid.

The thing is…they never think they look stupid because they’ll just alter reality and change narratives ahead to fit their world views.

In order to be ‘right’ on their ‘feelings’ about Tyreek Hill…they are now going to focus in on him spanking/hitting his child and keep discussing the words he used on that infamous audio tape (about how his girlfriend should be afraid of him). They’re going to write articles about how…even though Hill didn’t actually break his kid’s arm, he might as well have by disciplining him physically (allegedly) and the words he used on the audio. I’ve already seen the first few articles out with this theme.

I’m not saying their sentiment isn’t correct, Tyreek is not a lovable entity all things considered, and I get that Tyreek may be a jerk who deserves criticism and punishment. I’m pointing this media narrative out for two reasons…

(1) As an observer, predicter of fantasy things…Tyreek’s 2019 value changes in concordance with him being out for 1-2-3-4+ games. You think/hope he’s in the clear, if you’re a Tyreek owner or want to draft him for 2019 -- but I’m telling you the media is going to keep this going for good/wholesome or bad/lazy reasons. That pressure will force the NFL to react with something.

Why Tyreek isn’t my clear #1 WR across all scoring systems, etc., is because I know he’s getting a 2-4+ game suspension. I have to factor that in. I will be shocked if he gets no punishment. The easiest thing to do for Roger Goodell, and what I would do, if Tyreek was only ‘guilty’ of things people they don’t like, but not guilty of any real crime – I would still levy a suspension between 2-4 games to try to placate the media (but that never works) and give the appearance I was doing something.

I would be stunned if he’s not suspended 2+ games. Likely, 4 games and he appealed down to 3…or 6 games appealed down to 4 games.

(2) Every incident is somehow seen through Ezekiel Elliott’s prior 6-game suspension. A lot of the media, and most of the fans cover for Elliott and ignore his long history of bad actions and bemoan how unfair his suspension was EVEN THOUGH he was never charged with a crime. I get that sentiment. How do you suspend a guy for something he wasn’t charged/convicted of a crime for?

But, then somehow Tyreek not charged with any crime either, but a lot of bad ‘smoke’/rumors going on around him is something the media wants a pound of flesh on, regardless of the facts/details. The masses want an Elliott 6-game suspension for Tyreek so that they can then feel good about and feel like justice was served with Zeke’s bad/too long (they say) suspension. Anything less will bring up “…BUT Elliott got 6-games guilty of nothing!!”

They think the Elliott suspension was unjust, but then they want Tyreek (who is also not guilty of a crime here, so far) to pay too?

I’m not sure how two wrongs make a right here, but the masses will want a 6-gamer for Tyreek ‘just because’ of Elliott. Goodell can look good, stay out of the crosshairs if he levies a 6-gamer on Tyreek.

If Tyreek is headed for a 6-game suspension, and it’s upheld – he cannot be a top 50 player in redrafts/best ball in the preseason.

-- Well, that was an exciting one-day tenure of Michael Roberts as a Patriots tight end. He failed a physical with the Patriots and the deal was called off.

The Lions’ doctors cleared him (and he was subsequently released without an injury settlement). The Patriots saw something and cancelled the deal. When it’s the Patriots’ word against the Lions…people will side with the Pats, so this will haunt Roberts now. A serious blow to his NFL future. I was very excited about the Pats wanting him…he’s almost virtually dead to me now with this Patriots report.

If New England then grabs him for free in a few weeks/months…I’m back on-board.


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