Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, Musings (7/3/2019) *Extra
Throughout July and through the preseason, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every few days as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.
*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…
Some special notes for subscribers only…
-- The more intel I gather, the more I am thinking Tyreek’s suspension is going to be only 2-games…and if that’s the case, Tyreek is a supreme bargain right now. I’m not betting my life on it, but I believe 2-games max.
60% = 2-games
25% = 4-games
10% = 1-game
05% = 6-games
Remember, most fantasy GMs (and humans) live in the worst-case scenario world…so some, this very moment, still fear an 6-8 game suspension. Some see the 2-4 game projection and worry about it being the four-game option. Some just dislike/hate Tyreek because they think he’s guilty of a 2019 charge he was cleared of three different times (and the hate is built from his college actions/punching his pregnant girlfriend and then that foundation rolling into this 2019 incident…which is understandable).
I’d go green light on Tyreek now, assuming the suspension at 2-games. He misses Week 1 vs. Jacksonville (which may be a blessing in disguise). He misses two games and is lit for the next 14 games…you’d assume he’ll be on a mission once he’s back.
In Best Ball…I’d chase him well above his #35-45 ADP tracking he’s in right now – you can win Best Ball leagues with the great scoring spike players and he’ll give you that hope in 14 of 16 games this season…if we’re talking two games out.
In redraft, it’s hard to take him ahead of the top guys playing all their games (in theory), like OBJ, Hopkins, M. Thomas (I hate D. Adams’s schedule start, so I skip him), but assuming they’re all gone by pick #15 overall…if you’re sitting late 2nd/early 3rd-round and Tyreek is sitting there – I’m back in considering him strong if I believe he’s only getting a 2-game suspension.
In Dynasty, obviously his outlook is getting back to normal but there’s still a little stink on him from fears of a longer ban and then just a dislike of him anyway. He’s a contender for the single best WR to own in dynasty, in reality…and if you can acquire him as a #8-12+ best WR valuation – you do it.
The media does not like Tyreek Hill (for good reason) and they are going to be mad if he only gets two games suspended. Considering that and the fact that they have not endorsed him as a talent for three years running – I think after the suspension is announced, the media is going to start questioning whether he matters as a WR1 and/or was just lucky last year, and since they’ve all convinced themselves Patrick Mahomes will fade back to just a ‘top 3-5’ QB for fantasy…if Mahomes is going to fall by 10-20%+ in fantasy production, per their ‘feelings’ -- then Tyreek has to go with it, right? That’s the argument they will make post-suspension announced.
Before the suspension is announced, which could be today or Friday, I’d consider making a run at Tyreek via trade in places you can before the 2-games (or less) suspension is announced to try to get ahead of his value coming back further. Fantasy GMs who use trade calculators, etc., are using outdated models/ADPs/values on Tyreek…so deals can be had. Only acquire as a deal/bargain today because if you miss this window, another one is coming in a few weeks when the general ‘Mahomes can’t do THAT again’ vibe rolls over nicely to Tyreek (and Kelce for that matter).
Acquire Tyreek for the valuation of what a #10+ WR overall would go for…not as the #1-2-3 he should be. If your trade partner is too tight gripped/loves Tyreek/values him top 3…you just walk away and wait for the window to reopen.
Most of you that have been with me have Tyreek for the past three years, so all this is…it is music to your ears. I’m writing this for the places you don’t have him on your current dynasty/redraft/keeper teams or best ball drafts you can get into this week (pre-suspension announcement)…and noting it for our new audience from 2019 who are just getting up to FFM speed.
-- I’m losing faith in the 2019 Green Bay Packers day by day.
I think part of the reason I’m losing faith is that I’m losing faith in Aaron Rodgers. Not that he isn’t good/great but that he’s not as great as we think he is. Compared to the QBs in 2010-2017, he was great but he’s not better than Patrick Mahomes or Baker Mayfield today (fantasy-wise and raw talent wise). Rodgers is more experienced. He’s still great, but he used to be beyond great compared to the field – like we all feared betting against the Packers in a given week because of ‘Aaron Rodgers can do anything’ mentalities.
I think we’ve created a boogeyman out of Aaron Rodgers in 2019 (and the past few years). I was guilty of it. I had an email chat with the Handicapping Group on the Packers’ 2019 season earlier this year, and we all were pro-Rodgers + all the coaching changes…except for our own group member ‘Rabbitt’. He was thinking we were all crazy for Packers’ love (mild or heated)…and we were all kinda thinking he was a bit out there for not loving the Pack, but now I’m thinking he might have been the one seeing most clearly.
I think the Packers are set up to be a good football team, talent/roster/coaching-wise…but we all think Rodgers is the magical special sauce that makes ‘good’ into ‘possibly great’.
Rodgers has a 10-12-1 record the past two seasons as the starter in games. 9-13-1 against the spread. At home, 8-2-1 and 2-10-0 on the road. How is this a great QB unlike any other?
4-7 in the playoffs outside of that one Super Bowl season.
Passing yards per game (rounded) the past seven seasons: 268, 282, 274, 239, 277, 239, 278
Why do we think Aaron Rodgers is magical and think Ben Roethlisberger is a goof? Ben has better numbers as their career has gone on, better output, better winning percentages, and better playoff performances.
Ben’s last five seasons of passing yards per game (rounded): 310, 328, 273, 283, 321
Why is Rodgers trading as a #2-5 fantasy QB overall, and Big Ben #13-17? They throw for the same amount of TDs per game, but Ben with more picks, but Ben with more yards, Rodgers gets a bump for better rushing numbers. They should trade about the same, no? Either Rodgers is overvalued or Ben is undervalued (or both) looking at ADPs today.
If you start seeing Rodgers as a B+ quarterback instead of an automatic A+, everything changes. The Packers should not be auto NFC North favorites. The Packers are a reasonable, but not slick Super Bowl bet. Rodgers is not a strong QB1 for fantasy. Jace Sternberger should not get some special Dynasty Rookie Draft bump for being near him…nor the non-Davante Adams WRs for fantasy.
I’m shifting into a betting world where Aaron Rodgers is more B+/A- than automatic A+ that I have to fear for my life betting against and crave to bet on…and crave to own as an alternative to the top guys in fantasy. He’s NFL great, but there are more/other great ones out there in 2019…and Rodgers is only fantasy ‘good’ not great in this new era.
I’m the first to yell, “But Mike McCarthy was holding him back!!!” Then, the more I think about it…the more I wonder – if McCarthy lost control, and Rodgers could do what he wanted…how is averaging 230-270 passing yards per game and losing on the road a lot some great endorsement of Rodgers doing what Rodgers wanted?
I’m moving to a world where Rodgers is a B+/A- for the NFL and for fantasy…an aging, cantankerous, dating celebrities, always in commercials more than playoffs, oft-injured of late B+/A- NFL talent, who deserves respect but not reverence.