FFM Player Alert on News About to Break/Breaking Now (2nd player/2.0)
This one is not as exciting as yesterday’s Mike Williams frenzy…and congratulations to the folks who made quick/fast/cheap Williams deals yesterday. It was just as we theorized – a lot of middle/late 2021 2nd-round Dynasty Rookie Draft picks exchanged for Mike Williams by FFMers who saw a need/opportunity.
Again, I say…if 2021 Mike Williams was magically in your 2021 Dynasty Rookie Draft, and you’re at pick #18-24 – wouldn’t you take Williams if he were sitting there, after the O-C comments made this week about Williams? You can have Amari Rodgers or D’Wayne Eskridge (who I like) or useless Dyami Brown. I'll take the starting WR for the Chargers with Justin Herbert, indoors a lot, playing a Michael Thomas role for a coaching staff bringing in the Saints offense. I can go trade for Eskridge in October or this time next year for 50% less, or cheaper if Russell Wilson is gone.
Today’s alert on a player is likely not anything you’ll act on acquiring as much as maybe a related player to the alert you’ll dump/put into a deal as a sweetener in some multiplayer deal to cash out on him off this news. Let me fill in the blanks…
The quote from Mike Zimmer yesterday:
Vikings coach Mike Zimmer on a question about Irv Smith Jr.‘s expected role: “Honestly I don’t think it’s a bigger role for him whatsoever - I think it’s a bigger role for Tyler Conklin. He’s kind of emerged as a guy moving upward... We’re excited about these two young tight ends that we have.”
We discussed/explored the Tyler Conklin uprising late 2020 season when Kyle Rudolph went down, and everyone expected this free roll with major Irv Smith action…but then I noticed how much Conklin was then playing and getting work right along with Smith (Conklin played 60-70%+ of the snaps in the games with Irv Smith when Rudolph was out and saw about the same amount of targets as Smith in that stretch).
Zimmer’s statement is harsh…low key harsh on Smith while simultaneously praising Conklin – and Zimmer is not one to idly praise a player, so it’s probably 2x as deep as it sounds…and it sounds deep.
What do we do with this information?
I think it takes the typical/mainstream narrative of ‘this is Irv Smith’s breakout year’ (without Rudolph, now a Giant) and blows it up.
Smith was sneaking into TE1 rankings/ADPs, being called a sleeper for 2021…now, you can pretty much put a fork in that. It’s done. It wasn’t true late last year when Rudolph was out and it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be close to true this season, if Zimmer has any say…and he has ALL the say.
If I owned Irv Smith in Dynasty, I would be trying to trade him today…trying to find someone who will buy him as a fringe TE1, to a team short on TE talent and who would be inclined to take the chance.
You don’t just cold offer Smith for ____ trying to dump him because that would most likely lead to your trade partner Googling and maybe finding the Conklin news. But if you have to, you have to. Smith would be good to add in a multi-player deal, a guy who looks like a nice part of it…but really you’re trying to offload.
_____ + Irv Smith for ____ item of interest, with Irv as that little extra juice. To an extreme, it would be like a Dynasty Rookie pick #1.05 let’s say….offer 1.05 for what (with Pitts gone)?
The 1.05 for Antonio Gibson doors closed a few weeks ago, but 1.05 + Irv Smith for Gibson, to the TE hurting…maybe trips the trigger for someone hot for 1.05 and respects Irv, or maybe you add a 3rd minor part to it.
____ + Irv Smith gets you a better ____ trading with those who have some base respect/hope for Irv…or they just see that websites rank him well/trade analyzers assign him good value today because they aren’t dealing with the news. Irv is not for everyone, not a super hot name...so it won’t be easy. He’s not a headliner to trade for as much as a great add-on to a deal to make it seem like a haul...that little extra to get it done.
2nd-round rookie pick (or equal-ish player) + Irv for Deebo? Courtland? Chase Edmonds? Just thinking out loud.
In deeper leagues, you might add Conklin as a useful TE that is probably on your waivers right now…if you have need of extra TE depth or taking TE gambles in a TE-friendly scoring league.
I suspect this Conklin praise means both Conklin and Smith will play heavy and split touches into both being random TE2s who have a nice week when one of them scores a TD on their 3-4 targets in the game.
Conklin always looks good/capable to my eye when he’s been in games touching the ball the past two years. He’s not an athletic freak TE hiding in the shadows, getting ready to emerge (a 4.8 runner) but he plays quicker and more confident than that (to my eye), always did back to his Central Michigan days. He looks like he got in better shape, went to leaner muscle and moves better in 2020 than he did in his rookie 2018.