Kyler Murray and Josh Rosen – How We Are Interpreting And Projecting/Ranking Them For Dynasty Now…
When I run the next Dynasty rankings, you’re going to see some radical changes with these two guys, Murray and Rosen. Everything is changing so fast in the NFL; we have to constantly move/adjust with it like the stock market.
Here’s a chain of my current beliefs, my pitch as to why the changes are occurring…
-- I have 80%+ confidence now that Kyler Murray is going to be drafted by the Arizona Cardinals. Drafted to start day-one.
-- I believe that Kyler Murray skipped everything at the NFL Combine because he knows he’s going #1 overall to Arizona already.
-- I have 99% confidence Kyler Murray is going #1 in the draft, whether to Arizona or NOT…and drafted to start day-one. He’s going to the NFL to start right away.
-- I think Kyler Murray has a chance to be Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Michael Vick all rolled into one – he can change football as we know it, as a weapon never seen before.
-- Murray + Kingsbury = the best situation Murray could ever wind up in for the NFL. Possibly, Murray is a better ‘have’ for fantasy than Mahomes. In 4pts per pass TD/no bonuses…that might be very real/true. Which means, Murray might be the single best player in fantasy…4pts per pass TD/no bonuses.
-- Josh Rosen will be traded, but possibly stays as a backup. I believe the Rosen-to-Washington rumors are real. Josh Rosen on Washington or Jacksonville or Miami…it doesn’t do a thing for me. I had Rosen puffed up because of Kingsbury. Now, he’s going to crash down hard in the next dynasty rankings.
-- This is a year to go for the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts to get Kyler Murray, to overpay for it -- unless you have Mahomes, or if 6pts per pass TD if you have Mayfield or Mahomes.
-- I suspect D.K. Metcalf will be fantasy analyst’s #1 ranked guy for the Dynasty Rookie Draft…maybe 1-2 with Josh Jacobs. Fantasy analysts are anti-QB, typically. If you want Murray, the 1.01 assures you. AND there will probably be enough doubt on Metcalf and Jacobs that someone will trade you that 1.01.
My approach, today, would be to talk up/hint Josh Jacobs, and assume the current 1.01 holder probably doesn’t have big excitement over Jacobs, so they might part with it. If it were last year with Saquon…no way you move to 1.01. This year, the door is open. Or wait until the Alabama Pro Day for Jacobs to ‘cool’ some (maybe).
This is a year to pay up/overpay for Murray…Patrick Mahomes-like gifts, in Russell Wilson’s body, with Michael Vick’s feet…going to an all-offense coach. What more could you ask for?
Perhaps, the 1.02 or 1.03 gets you Murray in your actual Dynasty Rookie Draft. If the draft held today…yes. When he’s drafted by Arizona…the hysteria is going to be crazy this summer. Making a move now while everything is cloudy may be your best time in the marketplace.
-- Kyler Murray rising to top status for fantasy means we might have Mahomes-Murray-Mayfield as the 1-2-3 best assets depending upon your scoring system. Does three guys at the same position dilute things/their values as a whole…or the QB position in general?
If you don’t have these three guys, you’re going to get blown out by them a bunch week-to-week. You need them to then complete your roster to compete with the other 1-2 QBs at the top you don’t have.
-- My next Dynasty rankings update will be on Monday…where the non-PPR ranks will be added to the options. Half-point PPR coming after that next week. You’ll see then just how highly we are going here. I can tell you Murray is going to be either our #2 or #3 ranked overall prospect, depending upon scoring system.
Why not #1? We’ve seen Mahomes as ‘god’…Murray might be better, because of the running, but we haven’t actually seen it in the pros…so that slight hold back. It’s very possible, Murray turns fantasy on it’s ear in 2019 and beyond.