Let's Talk About 'DST Things' For Early 2019 Best Ball/Fantasy Football Drafts (Schedules, Sleepers, etc.)
My first report release in this Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DO/BB) space was a meaty one (the Baker Mayfield pitch), so we need to do a simple cool down report to follow that up.
I wanted to give out some prelim ideas on DSTs for 2019. Important for Best Ball happening right now…underrated important. As well as those in deep dynasty rosters who keep DSTs (and trade them, etc.).
Three phases to just chat about -- The Troubled (schedule), The Graced (schedule), The Early Sleepers.
*Keeping in mind…this is as of NOW…pre-free agency, draft, etc.
I wanted to look at DSTs (as of today) that were facing the top offenses the most times in 2019. Just for FYI. So, who is facing KC, LAR, GB, NE, NO, and CLE…yes CLE…the most in 2019.
*Did you know Baker Mayfield was sacked 3.2 times per game in his full starts under Hue Jackson, but then was sacked just 0.6 times per game post-Hue. Mayfield did not take a sack in five of his last 7 games. Mayfield is going to score points and not get sacked…trouble for opposing FF DSTs.
The six offenses to fear, per me, and the DSTs facing them the most in 2019:
5 times = Chicago
5 = Baltimore
5 = San Francisco
The Bears are the #1 ADP DST in early 2019 Redrafts and sit around/as the Ravens #3-5 DST off the board. The Bears had that change at D-C as well...are they overvalued considering changes and the schedule? I think so.
The toughest 2019 schedules, per my computer models, for the DSTs to face (pre-knowing the order of the schedule for 2019):
Why all the NFC West? Obvious…all potentially great and/or productive offenses there in 2019. SEA and ARI competent with ARI just scoring a lot in losses worst case.
I wanted to look at DSTs (as of today) that were facing the WORST offenses the most in 2019. Just for FYI. So, who is facing BUF, DET, MIA, NYJ, and WSH the most in 2019 – five (in my book) terrible offenses for 2019 and the DSTs facing the most times are:
7 times = NE
6 = DAL
6 = NYG
The easiest 2019 schedules, per my computer models, for the DSTs (pre-knowing the order of things):
Why three AFC East teams…they face Darnold, Allen, Miami the most times. It doesn’t mean they’re must-have in that order but I like NE and BUF…good NFL defenses…good schedules…sleepers/values right now.
The Early Sleepers/Value plays:
The three value plays jumping out at me as of right now…
1) The Cleveland Browns DST…tracking outside the top 12 ADP. They have great personnel, a pass rush potential, a shutdown CB…and, now, a normal head coach.
2) The Kansas City Chiefs DST…outside the top 15. Led the league in sacks. Tyreek returning punts (if that matters to you/double dipping). They have talent, and had several injuries last season, and they changed D-Cs. If they make 1-2 smart adds…this defense is nice with a great offense.
3) The New England Patriots DST…the problem is = the Pats have started slow and finished strong for the past few seasons. I don’t know that I would want to start 2019 with them for that reason. But in Best Ball taking multiple DST…NE as one will work.
4) The Buffalo Bills DST…a great unit with a ‘slow it down’ offense mentality. The downside is that that offense is so bad it hurts the defense too much, typically.
The most overvalued DST that I see right now: Seattle DST – good defense, monstrously bad schedule (mostly because of their division).