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My Early Value Bet/Wager On The Next Super Bowl Winner…(Feb. 2019)

Published:
April 25, 2019 5:57 PM
February 24, 2019 6:20 PM
Updated:
February 24, 2019 6:55 PM
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My Early Value Bet/Wager for The Next Super Bowl Winner…

*Not a Dynasty/Best Ball issue I’m discussing here, but I wanted to give out some early food for thought to the handicappers among us – which we will all be in about 2-3 years when it is all legal in every state and you can bet on an app.

Do you have an early pick for ‘sleeper’ or ‘value’ bet for the Super Bowl?

Do you have an early guess on who my best value bet might be…not necessarily the BEST bet (if I had to bet my life on it, I take the Patriots until Belichick is gone)? Last year at this time it was the Rams as my value bet early on…along with minor love thrown at the Bears and Saints – we got close with them, but no cigar; so to speak.

Here are the odds from the last week or so…take a look and see who you believe is yours and my best value play for the Super Bowl before I reveal my early pick.

ODDS TO WIN 2019-20 SUPER BOWL LIV

Kansas City Chiefs            7/1

New England Patriots     7/1

Los Angeles Rams            10/1

Chicago Bears                   15/1

New Orleans Saints         15/1

Indianapolis Colts            18/1

Los Angeles Chargers      20/1

Philadelphia Eagles         20/1

Green Bay Packers           20/1

Pittsburgh Steelers          20/1

Minnesota Vikings           20/1

Cleveland Browns            25/1

Dallas Cowboys                25/1

Atlanta Falcons                 30/1

Baltimore Ravens             30/1

Seattle Seahawks             35/1

Houston Texans               40/1

San Francisco 49ers         45/1

Denver Broncos                50/1

New York Giants               50/1

Jacksonville Jaguars        50/1

Carolina Panthers             50/1

Tampa Bay Bucs               60/1

Tennessee Titans             60/1

Cincinnati Bengals           100/1

Buffalo Bills                       100/1

Arizona Cardinals             100/1

New York Jets                   100/1

Detroit Lions                     100/1

Oakland Raiders               100/1

Washington Redskins      150/1

Miami Dolphins                300/1

My pick? Let me make it easier. It’s a team with a quarterback who has already won a Super Bowl. And we don’t know where Nick Foles will be at this stage, but I assume not-Philly, so no Eagles listed below.

With that qualifier…it has to be one of these teams:

New England Patriots     7/1

New Orleans Saints         15/1

Green Bay Packers           20/1

Pittsburgh Steelers          20/1

Seattle Seahawks             35/1

Denver Broncos                50/1

New York Giants               50/1

Did you know the last 14 teams to win the Super Bowl are quarterbacked by the current starting QB for one of the seven teams above or Peyton Manning…with Nick Foles the other outlier? Tom Brady has five of those 14 wins.

You probably rule out Eli and Flacco, and I already made a quip about the Patriots so we’re down to:

New Orleans Saints         15/1

Green Bay Packers           20/1

Pittsburgh Steelers          20/1

Seattle Seahawks             35/1

It’s one of these four teams, and not the Rams, Chiefs, or Bears. I picked the Saints to go to the Super Bowl in my second run of computer modeling last summer (Rams on the first run)…so it’s probably the Saints. No, it isn’t.

Now, this gets interesting because I don’t usually align myself too strongly with any of these remaining teams…GB, PIT, SEA.

I think at 20-to-1, or so, the Green Bay Packers are the most interesting early value Super Bowl bet for me.

We all agree that Aaron Rodgers can single-handedly win a Super Bowl, right? We’ve seen it. We’ve seen him carry awful Green Bay teams for years…and one-time to an actual Super Bowl (2011). In general, a bet on Rodgers isn’t bad.

But why Green Bay…why now? Four main reasons…

1) The aforementioned Aaron Rodgers.

Arguably the best QB in the NFL…if you needed to win one game. Mahomes or Mayfield may be more gifted. Brady more experienced in such things, but combining pure talent and experience…either as the #1 pick or after Brady…you’d like want Rodgers in 2020 for one game – his experience, his talent. Typically, elite QBs are at the head of the last umpteen Super Bowl winners…and then there’s the Joe Flacco outlier. Rodgers is not even debatable as one of the best QBs in the NFL.

You may cry…”Where are all his Super Bowls, then?” I’d ask if you ask the same of Drew Brees and I also say Rodgers’ coaching his whole career was killing him/holding him back. The same weak coach his whole career, basically.

2) Mike McCarthy is gone…Matt LaFleur is in.

This is a bit of an issue with my bet…a first-time head coach wins the Super Bowl is quite improbable. However, Doug Pederson accomplished it in his second year, so it’s not the craziest…maybe. LaFleur has some legit coaching chops/actual record of success and experience moving around (because he was in demand) under his belt.

But the Packers have been held back by Mike McCarthy for forever. A new coach, one with an offensive mindset…if he just let’s Rodgers do his thing – then we can go back to point #1, ‘Aaron Rodgers’ is the best case for this value bet. Anything but McCarthy is a rallying cry for hope…and, again, Rodgers actually won a title with McCarthy and carried his ass for McCarthy’s whole career.

3) Defensive Coordinator Mike Pettine.

A former NFL head coach who could have been the new GB head coach but is smart enough not to want to be an NFL head coach for family and health and quality of life reasons. He’s a mentoring coach to have for the new coach…AND he’s great at what he does, and the Packers might have the best defense they’ve had in years with Pettine year-two and McCarthy gone.

We just need a plausible defense with Aaron Rodgers doing his thing.

4) The weakening NFC North.

Mike Zimmer is fading. Matt Patricia is going to run Detroit into the ground and be another ex-Patriots failure (hiring Darrell Bevell as O-C this offseason is all the proof you needed). Matt Nagy is wildly overrated -- and the Bears lost Vic Fangio, so that defense may take a step back. If you downgrade the Bears…then this division is potentially favorable for the Packers.

Looking at the Packers schedule (without knowing the layout yet) – in the NFC North, let’s put them down for a 4-2 record. Three home wins and one road win.

The Pack faces the AFC West in their rotation…DEN and OAK at home, win-win…and LAC-KC on the road, let’s say loss-loss. 2-2 through the AFC West.

Green Bay also has the NFC East in their rotation this year. Hosting PHI-WAS, let’s go win-win. Going to DAL-NYG, let’s go with a split on the road there. 3-1 through the NFC East.

I have a 9-5 record accumulated before their final two games to consider – hosting Carolina…let’s say ‘win’. Going to the 49ers…could be a win, but let’s go loss to be overly deferential. I got to 10 wins trying to be favorable to their great prowess at home and being harsher to them on the road.

All I need/want is Green Bay in the tournament, and then I know I have a fighting chance…whether against the NFC top teams or if they make to the Patriots in the finale – there’s always a chance with Aaron Rodgers.

Fresh management but with an experienced defensive coordinator – that’s a ‘plus’ for Green Bay. Just getting away from McCarthy is a boost.

An improving defense…and there were signs of it in the 2nd-half of last season before a fresh round of injuries hit late.

Aaron Rodgers’ is enough to take a small betting ticket out on as it is.

What?

You think Rodgers didn’t have a good season in 2018?

Did you know…

Rodgers was hurt Week 1 and should have been taken out to rest for weeks…but he played on one leg the 1st-half of the season and posted 25 TDs and just 2 picks total in 2018. The most passing yards per game in his last five seasons (277.6). Rodgers should be throwing for 300+ yards per game with regularity…being he might be the best pure talent to ever play the game (pre-2018). Here’s how bad McCarthy was – Rodgers averaged 300+ yards per game in a season once. Never more than 281 per game in another season. At the same time, Drew Brees had, at one time, nine seasons in a row over 281 passing yards per game…and most of them 300+ for the season. Is Brees better than Rodgers? No. It was a Mike McCarthy problem…like Russell Wilson has a Pete Carroll problem.

Well, McCarthy is gone.

What if Matt LaFleur just gets out of Rodgers’ way…or, better yet, helps him like he did Matt Ryan just a few years ago when Ryan won the MVP?

20-to-1 on Aaron Rodgers…not the worst bet ever.

===============

FYI

ODDS TO WIN 2019-20 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Los Angeles Rams            9/2

New Orleans Saints         5/1

Chicago Bears                   8/1

Minnesota Vikings           8/1

Green Bay Packers           10/1

Philadelphia Eagles         10/1

Dallas Cowboys                12/1

Seattle Seahawks             15/1

Atlanta Falcons                 20/1

Carolina Panthers             25/1

New York Giants               25/1

San Francisco 49ers         25/1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers   35/1

Washington Redskins      50/1

Arizona Cardinals             60/1

Detroit Lions                     60/1

ODDS TO WIN 2019-20 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Kansas City Chiefs            3/1

New England Patriots     4/1

Indianapolis Colts            8/1

Los Angeles Chargers      8/1

Pittsburgh Steelers          10/1

Baltimore Ravens             12/1

Cleveland Browns            12/1

Houston Texans               15/1

Denver Broncos                25/1

Jacksonville Jaguars        25/1

Tennessee Titans             35/1

New York Jets                   50/1

Buffalo Bills                       60/1

Cincinnati Bengals           60/1

Oakland Raiders               60/1

Miami Dolphins                150/1



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