The Master Dynasty or Best Ball (or Redraft) Draft Plan Starts With This…
If you’re reading this than you are a subscriber to the DOBB (Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball) area of FFM, and you’ve already seen that our top ranked/valued players for Dynasty or Best Ball are mainly Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, and Kyler Murray.
For some/many, this is a shock…feels a little/very uneasy. How can three QBs be the top ranked assets for short-term and long-term? Especially when most fantasy ranking services would advise you not to draft a QB until several rounds into any draft.
…the fantasy words of death, “You can get a Quarterback any time.” As if you cannot do as such at any position – it’s the stupidest justification statement ever. It’s an illogical combination of words.
‘Proper’ fantasy strategy would tell you running backs are the top assets…possibly the top 3-4-5+ ranked players would be running backs for many rankings – so, they’ve established (I guess) that you can rank a bunch of players from one position at the top. They just think it has to be a running back…or a mix of RB and WR. I’ve always said, because I value differently/statistically/economically, QBs and TEs absolutely can be at the top of the most valuable assets in a given year or dynasty start up.
I’m the only person on the planet that would tell you Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray are the top assets in fantasy right now. So, allow me to explain…
It’s simple, really, at its core. I strongly believe the players most likely to dominate fantasy scoring right now are the new age QBs. I don’t have Jared Goff right after ‘the big three’ (but have him ranked higher than most) or Brees-Cam-Rodgers-Watson-Wentz, etc. It’s not all quarterbacks…it’s certain/specific QBs. I’m highlighting, promoting – Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray, specifically.
2018 was the proof for Patrick Mahomes’s case. I don’t even have to argue this one.
If your ace running back, in PPR, scored a TD, combined for 150 yards, and caught 5 passes…you’d be over the moon each week. 26 fantasy points in a week is awesome. Todd Gurley rolled like that for a while in 2018, but then didn’t. Christian McCaffrey started doing that some 2nd-half of the season.
If you play in 6pts per pass TD leagues, Patrick Mahomes had 4 or more passing TDs (24 or more points JUST from TD passes) seven times last year. We haven’t started counting passing yards or rushing affects…just his passing TD scoring nearly best great games from your running back.
In 16 games last season, how many times did Mahomes drop 30+ fantasy points in a week? 10 times. In PPR, Gurley did so 4 times. McCaffrey…twice.
40+ points in a game? Mahomes 4 times. Gurley and McCaffrey hit 40+…zero times.
How many times did perfectly fine, ‘get any old QB later’ Drew Brees hit those levels? Six times he hit 30+, and once he hit 40+ (6pts per pass TD)…which is good, but about half of Mahomes (and then Brees’s bad fantasy games were bad, and Mahomes hardly had a ‘bad game’ for fantasy).
Patrick Mahomes is a weapon of mass destruction in fantasy football…more than any other player, week-to-week. Not every week, but over a season…many more weeks than anyone else you can name. If you have Patrick Mahomes, you can make a lot of mistakes at the other positions and have it made up for by St. Patrick. You can take 2-3-4 weeks into the season to find that RB combo, etc., for your season because Mahomes is carrying you almost every week.
What? You think he’s going to get worse in 2019…or 2020…or 2021?
4pts per pass TD scoring systems? It brings Mahomes back to ‘one of, if not THEE, best you can do for fantasy assets…whereas 6pts per pass TD he’s clearly the best…better than any positional player you could name.
I think Baker Mayfield is as good a quarterback, if not better than Mahomes. He shed Hue Jackson, the reason I didn’t go sky-high with him as a rookie (still way higher than everyone else).
You would not debate me that Mahomes is the best passing QB in fantasy, because you saw it…it’s real. I would say -- if there is a quarterback who will out-pass/fantasy outscore Mahomes in 2019…if there is a guy that might throw 60 TD passes in a season and break NFL records for everything(s) – it’s Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield has the coach to allow him to do what he does, and they are adding all the assets around him. Baker is a machine and he doesn’t take a knee very well. He’s going to push…to prove to everyone he’s the best.
Jared Goff is nice. I like what Mitch Trubisky brings to the table. Brees-Rodgers are money. None of them are close to the skills and drive for Mahomes-Mayfield…the upcoming ‘Magic and Bird’ version of greatness and of ‘anything you can do…I can do better’.
Fantasy Football scoring may need to change because of what these two guys are going to produce every week. Not just one or two games a season with 4+ TDs in a game…no, they might have 4-5-6 game stretches with 4+ TD passes in games as they throw for 50+ TDs on the reg.
I didn’t expect to enter Kyler Murray into this discussion, starting in February 2019, but here is. How can I have a rookie QB ranked #2 overall in non-PPR?
The world has not seen what Murray is about to bring. The passing grace/touch of Patrick Mahomes. The feet and willingness to run of Michael Vick. A head coach who is going to pour out the offensive gasoline and let Murray be the match.
If Murray goes to NYG or OAK, or anywhere else…down goes his rankings/projections to some degree (driving the Mahomes-Mayfield value higher).
Murray is going to go to work for the most offensive friendly head coach, Kliff Kingsbury, and they are going to try to make magic together. 2-3+ TD passes, 250-300+ yards passing, 50-100+ yards rushing and 6-10+ rushing TDs (more long-distance ones) per game are coming with Murray. If I take the middle/average from each of the numbers I just spewed, that would have Murray with games tallying like 2.5 TD passes, 275 passing yards, 75 yards rushing, 0.5 rushing TDs per game – those numbers equal 36.5 fantasy points (6pts per TD) in a game before INTs. Murray is built for 30+ points per game in fantasy…his situation, if in Arizona, is built for such.
If you don’t have one of these three QBs (assuming Murray to ARI) on your fantasy team, you’re starting out the season in the hole. The league champion will likely possess one of these QBs. You need one just to have a claim to the title staked out.
However, you could very well get two of them and be a global power – possessing the greatest weapons and an insurance risk if one goes down or is on a BYE or sits Week 16, whatever…or you trade one at the right time, etc. Just the impact of forcing the other 9-11+ teams in the league NOT to have one of them is worth statistical value…as one of them sits on your bench and cannot be used by them (forcing them into Jameis Winston types).
You will almost guaranteed go to the fantasy playoffs if you own two of these three QBs and work them for matchups, BYE weeks, etc. The one issue being…Mahomes-Murray both have a Week 12 BYE in 2019, but that’s minor.
To me, you build your fantasy plan around Mahomes-Mayfield (and/or Murray in ARI). You’d need a near perfect hand in all your other positions to fight the team that has 1-2 of these guys if you try to fight back with Matt Ryan or Drew Brees.
When I plan my draft strategy for Best Ball…I start with the Mahomes-Mayfield (and Murray) plan and build around it. Buying them a round ahead to make sure I get them.
New Dynasty team, old Dynasty team? I plan around acquiring Mahomes-Mayfield (and/or Murray) and worry about everything else as we go.
I can claim possessing two of them because I’m the only one valuing them this way. I can get Mahomes in 1st, 2nd round. When I first pushed the Mayfield angle in January…I could get him 8th+ round. Now, you’re looking at 3rd-4th-round. Still a bargain.
Let me tell you, you draft Mahomes-Mayfield with your first four picks in redraft…you’ll be able to trade Mayfield or Mahomes for anything you want in Week 2-3-4. Don’t worry about filling out a bingo card of positions by the numbers. That’s silly. Take the weapons of mass destruction and work out from there.
Dynasty…trading for either Mahomes or Mayfield isn’t easy, but EVERYONE else undervalues QBs, so whatever you pay is likely a deal.
You miss Mahomes in round one or two? Then you HAVE to have Mayfield, especially in 6pts per pass TD. I don’t care what ESPN says or whatever draft website has as an ADP for the proper area to take Mayfield – you take him ASAP and then deal with it if you miss Mahomes. If you don’t, you’re going to regret it.
You have to have at least one of Mahomes-Mayfield, and then add one of the other or Murray to go with them…that’s winning fantasy strategy.
Once we get past the draft we’ll start examining the ‘plan’ for everything else not Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray to fill in the roster in a Best Ball, etc.