Tony Pollard/Ezekiel Elliott Risk Percentage Change (2.0 Update)
My 9/2 Note:
We're back to 50-50 now.
...more like 45% Zeke is back, 55% he's not.
You've seen the reports have been swirling today that the contract talks have broken down. Again, I have to say, 'what talks'? Either Elliott gets the top deal among all RBs, or he doesn't play.
I'm not moved by the media reports as much as I am by the fact that Dallas elevated RB Jordan Chunn to the main roster today. They could still drop Chunn, and then re-sign him, but to make this move seems to be admitting there will be no deal. Which if there is no deal for Week 1...I don;t think there will be one for a while.
My 9/1 Note:
Tony Pollard/Ezekiel Elliott Risk Percentage Change
If you've been following my thoughts on this you know I've been 50/50 on Zeke arriving Week 1, and then if not there by then he could be out weeks/the whole season. I've liked Tony Pollard as a gamble on this for weeks, but everyone is on that bandwagon now to some degree. Some of you grabbed Pollard rounds 6-7 through 10-12 in drafts this past week ready to take the gamble.
If we're right about Pollard in/Zeke out, Pollard is an RB1 threat for Week 1+.
If Zeke signs, Pollard becomes an RB4 handcuff.
I've been 50/50 on Zeke signing a deal. I've seen the news reports on 'intense negotiations' (which is silly). It's a pretty simple negotiation -- Zeke gets what he wants (highest paid RB in the league, including the best guarantee) or he stays away. There is no middle ground.
Today, I'm shifting my opinion to 55-60% that Zeke arrives Tuesday. That Jerry will make him the highest/best paid RB in the league. Just basing that on chatter from good sources. Not Roto headlines. That doesn't mean a done deal or any deal. Just, I'm moving my risk meter more for Zeke and against Pollard but not radically so. I'm pumping the brakes on drafting him too highly today/Monday. I'm exploring cute deals with the Elliott owner to see.
I'm willing to see the lottery ticket to the end...RB1 or RB4, that's quite a ticket...but my odds on it hitting are a little lower today. Could change that opinion in 5 minutes or tomorrow, but today I'm a touch more hesitant.
Do with that info what you will for redrafting and trading next 24-48 hours. I'll update if I sense anything else. It's a critical issue. Little to lose A LOT to gain.