Tyreek Hill Update/Theories/Rumors (May 3rd, 2019)…
I’m going to share an update/thoughts on Tyreek Hill’s situation for what it is worth, and I’m definitely no lawyer/legal scholar…these are just my opinions.
And don’t hate me for writing about it, as if staying silent is some moral win in the universe. It’s a public issue of interest, and it’s more complex than making assumptions via the media/Roto headlines. I play and write about fantasy football professionally…so, this issue is my business. Everyone I talk football with wants to wants to talk about…so, I’m not just writing about it for my own fun or dreaming this up. People want to hear my opinion on such things, and I’m happy/duty bound to weigh in.
This week, we had Tyreek’s lawyer hitting back at that damaging audio released by Tyreek’s ex-girlfriend/mother of the children. This situation is going to turn into a he said/she said battle over their relationship separation and money.
I know nothing ‘inside’ for sure, just hearing possibly connected ‘whispers’. I’m watching everything on this intently, selfishly for fantasy, etc. I have an odd stake in the outcome…a moral dilemma, possibly. I/you wanted to be like a real NFL GM playing fantasy…here we are – what would you do if you were the Chiefs owner/GM today? Take my upcoming theories/comments, as theory mixed with ‘whispers’ mixed with leaning on my NFL/human history in these things…
-- The waters are going to get very muddy on who did what…the ‘mud’ being that this is becoming a case about a real incident where a child was hurt but involving two parents who are both off their rockers in some way shape or form. The more I listen to them communicate…the more I question their ability as parents/adults. Listen to that recent audio, losten to any Tyreek interview, and consider their relationship history back to college (the incident that got Tyreek booted from Oklahoma State).
-- Tyreek has been investigated twice in this child abuse matter. The first investigation lasted three days and was quickly dropped like it was nothing. The second investigation could have been centered more on the mother…but then that second investigation blew up and became a media firestorm, and Tyreek is the media-worthy figure the media trained its guns on (which is logical for headlines/clicks, etc. – it’s all any of us cared about).
-- Tyreek was cleared on investigation #1. After a firestorm and more intense investigation, Tyreek was cleared/no charges filed in investigation #2. Then the audio came out and people assumed he was a jackass from some of the words he spoke in the audio that were put into headlines – and they definitely make him out to be a jerk/he seems like a jerk…but being a jerk is not a crime.
-- Consider the circumstances around the audio…
The girlfriend/mom knew what she was getting ready to do (record a conversation with a purpose). There was a lot of heat on her…the looming relationship problems/separation from Tyreek, three kids (she’s pregnant with twins), a nationally followed police/state investigation…it was bad for both of them. With all the heat, Tyreek’s girlfriend set out to trap Tyreek on secret recording. It was not spur of the moment; it was premeditated.
When you listen to the audio with the mindset that she’s trying to trap him/save herself…you get a different feeling for the questions she’s asking/statements she is making…how she is baiting Tyreek – for a purpose. Now, Tyreek may be 100% guilty of it all and she’s trying to get that info, which is smart…but Tyreek is completely open about a lot of things on the audio tape, but he never agrees/admits he hurt his child or punches him, etc. She pushes him on it, he never really gives into it.
She makes a lot of statements, like she was ‘riding’ for Tyreek (covering up/shielding him) but that’s what one might say if she was worried that she might get found out as guilty and was trying to get that on tape for a purpose/save for later to put the heat on Tyreek in a he said/she said. I’m hearing more and more whispers, and had heard it when this thing started – that this incident may be a lot to do with the child’s mother being a problem…she may be guilty of the abuse (possible discipline gone too far) or guilty of taking a simple accident that happened and trying to leverage it against Tyreek, due to their problematic relationship.
I know the easy bet is to assume Tyreek is guilty, partially because the media has all but condemned him/found him guilty, but it’s still possible Tyreek is 100% innocent of any wrong doing here. You can hate him and his ‘you should be afraid of me’ comment, and he is hate-able, but he also may be innocent in this case. None of his words on the audio tape are confirmation of him being guilty of anything, criminally.
-- Tyreek’s lawyers are now fighting back and they have their own evidence – texts where the mom admitted she beat the child with a belt/too hard and was remorseful about it…which is the biggest smoking gun so far. The lawyer’s statements and defense this week were very good…whether he’s defending an innocent man or deflecting for a guilty man.
-- There are bad things on Tyreek here. There are bad things on the mom. It’s what the prosecutor said when dropping the case last time – something happened, but he has not real idea who did what. That investigation was happening when both parents were probably protecting themselves in their own self-interest…because it was bad for both. Now, the mud is slinging…just a different version of confusion. Unless a true smoking gun appears, it’s still a ‘he said/she said’.
-- The ball is now in the mother’s court…
If she is innocent, and just wants her child and justice (if Tyreek is guilty)…that’s going to be tough to prove. It looks like they are both unfit humans to parent children. She has a giant uphill battle to fight, and likely without the resources.
Whether she is innocent or guilty, she has a moral dilemma to face…one that 90%+ of the time the person will look at the cost (mentally/financially/time) and compare that to just dropping it with an agreement that they (in this case, she) will get a large amount of dollars in spousal support going forward.
If the mom fights and wins OR loses the case, and Tyreek is banned from the NFL…Tyreek will have no money/earning potential, and thus the mom and kids will not be in good financial stead either (assuming). ‘Winning’ this case (Tyreek imprisoned/convicted/kicked out of football for life), for the mom, is a one-way ticket to poverty or regular life (after living the high life of late).
Fighting the case and ‘losing’ could leave her with nothing…losing all the kids…fighting high-powered lawyers forever…or being found as the guilty one all along. Dropping the case with a side deal with Tyreek could mean they separate for good, but she’ll get a ton of money off Tyreek’s earnings.
It’s a deal with the devil, in a sense -- fight the case and lose forever financially, and in other ways. Drop the case, ‘take the deal’, justify it as ‘best for the kid’s future’ and avoid the public scrutiny and court time and cash out. Most cases where NFL (or any sport) where there is a high-profile player with abuse claimed from a female…they often later drop the charges after an initial claim/whirlwind of media they didn’t/couldn’t account for. See: Ezekiel Elliott and Reuben Foster. Why do the victims do that? We don’t know, but we could make guesses…good and bad.
-- The NFL will be in a tough spot.
If the mom clams up or is found guilty, and Tyreek is once again cleared -- Tyreek will be innocent from three investigations. How does the NFL suspend him strongly…an ‘innocent’ man? Tyreek will be guilty in the court of public opinion, so the NFL will have to do something. Whatever we’d guess today will be worthless because the evidence and charges in this case change weekly now.
As of today, if Tyreek is found innocent again or ‘can’t charge him/anyone’, the NFL would be faced with a dilemma – what kind of suspension placates the angry fans who have convicted Tyreek in their minds (and maybe rightfully so)? Can’t be 1-2 games. Is it 8 games, like Kareem Hunt? I’d say 8-16 games, right now…unless the mom is proven guilty or admits it. If the mom is found guilty or clams from here and Tyreek is cleared again…maybe 2-4-6 game suspension?
What does Kansas City do? I think as long as Tyreek is not convicted, the Chiefs are right to just hold him out until a final legal judgement happens. Cutting him based on today’s headline info is silly…he’s an innocent man, legally. He may have done nothing besides act like a jerk or seem capable of doing these things in a recorded conversation. If Tyreek is not charged, I think KC has him sit out part/all of the season and take anger management/rehab courses, try to let time pass and then he’s back in 2020 season.
Again, this is all speculation on my part. I just wanted to put some of my thoughts on paper and make the case that the public is potentially wrong again here. Some have him convicted/damned 100%, but there’s possibility that he’s either fully innocent…or he’s going to be declared innocent, legally, from a lack of evidence. And, if legally innocent…he’ll be back to the NFL at some point.
What’s all this means Tyreek is worth in dynasty-fantasy?
Well, he’s back to being sold for .50 cents on the dollar – his ADP is falling of late to #40-60 overall. I think there’s a case to just hold him. Treat him like he tore his ACL and is out for 2019…don’t even count on him playing this year, but assuming he’s back 2020 – and whatever that’s worth to you.
Morally, if you don’t want him. Deal him. Nothing wrong with that, but if you wait a few weeks…his value might jump back to .80+ cents on the dollar if he’s cleared again.
If you’re not having any moral dilemma, he is trading at a steep discount because everyone assumes he’s done for a year or more. He’s acquirable at a discount.
I’m mostly seeing deals around half of what you’d normally expect for no-issues Tyreek.
Example: Your 1.10 pick in a dynasty rookie draft for Tyreek? The player you get at 1.10 will take 1-2 years to matter, if ever, or you can have proven Tyreek coming back full-fledged in 2020? I’d rather have Tyreek’s 2020 than anyone in this rookie draft but about 1-2 players.
What I’m doing/recommending…
Hold him if you got him. Don’t sell him. I take my chances vs. selling short.
Trade for him if the deal is as if he’s a WR2-2.5…like a great deal.
Don’t draft him in redraft or best ball unless he falls to a ridiculous level to take a shot. He’s going to miss some kind of time this season…possibly, gone for good.