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What To Make of the Sudden Cleveland Browns Hysteria for Dynasty-Fantasy-(Handicapping)?

April 25, 2019 5:57 PM
March 17, 2019 9:57 AM
March 17, 2019 10:00 AM

What To Make of the Sudden Cleveland Browns Hysteria for Dynasty-Fantasy?

About a month ago, I wrote that opening Dynasty Offseason piece about Baker Mayfield being the single most important player for all our Dynasty-Fantasy 2019’s. At the time, Mayfield was not tracking inside the top 10-12 fantasy QBs in most every analyst’s ranking…because analysts don’t like Baker Mayfield for a whole host of reasons (and they do not value fantasy QBs). They do like Sam Darnold, and thus Mayfield must be torn down to keep him close to Darnold (in their minds).

I was ready for all of us to cash in on this Mayfield bargain for 2019…a top 3 fantasy asset in Dynasty, Redraft, Best Ball. It was easy money. A great way to build Redraft and Best Ball plans on…and make reasonable Dynasty acquisitions.

…a funny thing happened on the way to the store to buy cheap Baker stock.

Odell Beckham Jr. getting traded to Cleveland has given all the experts cover to ‘like’ Baker Mayfield now. But they won’t go TOO far, because they hate QBs for fantasy in general. So, you’re now seeing Mayfield as a top 10 fantasy QB. Antonio Brown barely budged Derek Carr’s 2019 fantasy aura, but OBJ to Cleveland has analyst’s scrambling.

The public…well, that’s a different story. OBJ is the most popular non-QB player in the NFL. In his prime, he just got traded to the Cleveland Browns…to join ‘man of the people’ (enemy of the state/NFL) Baker Mayfield. The masses are hysterical for all things Cleveland today, and they don’t care who knows it. I’m seeing Mayfield going as high as top five QB off the board in Dynasty and Best Ball now/this past few days.

Baker-mania, and thus Cleveland Browns-mania, is running wild.

If you took my advice and landed Baker before all this…you’re welcome. I’m a genius; you’re right. If you waited until ‘later’ to try to do something with Baker or were rejected in your early attempts…you’re probably lamenting your luck.

If you missed out on Baker, in Dynasty…what to do now? Pay the heavier price or move on?

I say, “Pay the price,” (if you don’t have Mahomes already and is 6pts per pass TD)…BUT you need to wait. Hold your horses. Cool your jets. The price has gone loco for right now, but it will come in some. Just give it a little bit.

On a scale of 0-to-10, Mayfield’s price was a +/- ‘7’ for Dynasty acquisition before the OBJ trade. Beckham trade week/this week…it’s fluctuating between 9-13, right now. The masses liked Mayfield, but they couldn’t love him because the experts told them they couldn’t. Now, the OBJ news…and the masses don’t care who knows they are in love with Baker.

Give it a few weeks and let the experts come in and browbeat them all down a bit. It will work on some, but not all. I’ll show why this price is jacked and could/will come down…

The ‘experts’ pre-OBJ trade: The Browns are going to be a solid team and Baker looks promising. Cleveland might get a wild card and Baker a #10-15 ranked fantasy QB.

The ‘masses’ pre-OBJ trade: Cleveland is a sleeper AFC North winner and Baker could be a top 10 fantasy QB. We’re worried because the analysts are not excited.

The ‘experts’ post-OBJ trade: The Browns are our sleeper pick to win the AFC North…please be in awe of this prediction…that now meets where the public and Vegas was anyway. Mayfield will be good because of OBJ…possibly a top 5-10 fantasy QB

The ‘masses’ post-OBJ trade: The Browns are going to win the AFC North and possibly the Super Bowl, they bet them way up in Vegas and Mayfield is a top 3-5 fantasy QB.

Give it a week or two, and the experts will start shaming the public for getting too hot too fast with the Browns. And that will take today’s overheated price down some and make deals more reasonable. The +/- ‘7’ Mayfield valuation that spiked to 9-13 value/’not available’ post-OBJ trade will fall back to an +/- 8.5 valuation soon enough. Not for all, but for many. You need to let this hysteria cool off…if you’re wanting to acquire Baker.

And don’t bet on the Browns to win or get to the Super Bowl…not at those odds. Adding OBJ was not the missing piece of the Browns puzzle. I liked Cleveland to win the AFC North a few weeks ago, as a bet, but not now…the pricing has gone haywire. The experts will push that back down some ahead, but not back to where it was.

In 6pts per pass TD and/or performance bonus scoring leagues – you want Mayfield, want him bad, if you don’t have Mahomes. Having Goff is great, and ‘will do’ but this is a Mahomes-Mayfield-(Murray/ARI not NYG?) league now…guys who can drop 50+ TDs a season and throw for 300+ yards almost every game.

4pts per pass TD and no bonuses…don’t sweat the Baker chase as much. In that case, if you have reasonable other options, you might have to admit you missed the Mayfield window and go move on to another plan or stick with the quality non-Mahomes/Mayfield option you have (Rodgers, Goff, Trubisky, Murray). Laying out for Baker is not as big a deal in 4pts pass TD/no bonus leagues…cheaper a few days ago it was worth ‘stealing him’, but those days are over.

What about OBJ’s fantasy value?

Think about the potential here – potentially the greatest pure QB talent combines with the current best all-round, pure WR talent in the league. How is that not ‘money’? I don’t want to hear about bracketing or double teams by opponents. If that worked…DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown would be fantasy duds the past few years. You can’t stop a great QB and great WR combo…you can’t stop OK QB and great WR it seems either.

If Beckham’s head is in the game and his health holds…Mayfield-OBJ goes up with Mahomes-(unjailed)Tyreek and Rodgers-Adams as the most lethal 1-2 punches for fantasy.

You should be excited for Baker-OBJ-Browns…but everyone is excited, too excited. Let is cool off a bit.

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