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Where Are We At With The Tyreek Hill Thing Now (end of the week 3/22)?

April 25, 2019 5:57 PM
March 22, 2019 10:43 PM
March 22, 2019 10:45 PM
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Where Are We At With The Tyreek Hill Thing Now (end of the week 3/22)?

On 3/5 (if I remember correctly), we had the first police report/investigation of the Hill household…and a few days later it was deemed to be something not worth pursuing.

On 3/15(?), we had the second police report and investigation…and with these matters typically concluded (dropped or elevated) in a few days, here we are a week later no new news has broken. So, we’re left in limbo on whether something horrible happened and whether or not it’s going to be a massive problem/curveball to deal with for your fantasy issues.

I’m going to share what I’m seeing, feeling, hearing on this touchy subject…since we have nothing else concrete to go on. When I write/talk about this and some people get sensitive about it, I get it. How could you talk about such things out of respect for the child? What’s the moratorium on when you can react to unpleasant news? We don’t even have an actual crime, we have allegations…so when does it ever feel good to talk about? I play fantasy professionally and for pleasure, and for money. You do too. This is news that impacts our profession and earnings potential. I’ve gotta talk about it. So, I will.

Notes I wrote down about the Tyreek situation this week in no particular order…

-- Tyreek has not denied any of this.

If this were happening to you or me, and it wasn’t true…and if we were a public figure, wouldn’t we rush to deny it without equivocation. Maybe we’d just tweet something like “I can’t speak about it, but the facts will be evident soon enough.”

The lack of public denial in some form…makes me think we’ve got a problem. If there were nothing here, if this was a witch hunt or a set up by an angry partner – you figure you’d rush to a platform to express innocence or release a statement. I’ve seen nothing like that yet. Perhaps, his ‘handlers’ have a strategic reason for it. And if you’ve ever seen Tyreek speak in public…you don’t want him having to answer questions/think quick on his feet.

The lack of denial has me tipped towards something did happen and Tyreek is the culprit in some way.

-- You may have seen some stuff about a ‘Mrs. Robinson’ and her Tyreek related tweets. I read them. She’s got some kind of linkage to the family, her husband is the godfather to the child, I think…I don’t know. The reason I don’t know is the tweets were so illogical and broken up that I didn’t give them much attention.

Among various things she had something about Hill’s parents may have been involved, and that this happened back in February and it’s all coming to light now, and that Tyreek and fiancée are good parents, but Tyreek has issues. It was choppy/hard to follow/make sense of -- I really am not sure what this person was trying to communicate specifically. However, it was another take that this is all on Tyreek (and/or, maybe, his parents) and not the fiancée.

-- The trade rumor hit this week…that the Chiefs had some kind of discussion about trading him, likely mentioned during the initial contract negotiations for an extension because Tyreek wanted the biggest contract among wide receivers. He should’ve.

I’m sure somewhere in their talks with teams, it came up, maybe even as a joke…perhaps, just seeing what the reaction was before plowing a bunch of money into him. Every player should be discussed in trade except franchise quarterbacks.

I don’t see this as Kansas City trying to dump a known problem. However, if there is any truth to the rumor that something happened back in February…maybe they did try to sneak Hill out the door.

Whatever is true about the trade rumors, and if Jay Glazer said it, I believe it – none of this helps Tyreek’s general vibe right now.

-- What is Tyreek’s ‘ADP’ in drafts this past week?

From what I’m seeing, he’s gone from #10-15 range to #20-#30+ in dynasty startups, and from #12-18 range to #20-36+ in Best Ball.

He’s lost about a round+ of value with a few people starting to try to get cute and snag Hill at semi-reasonable but discounted from normal price. To me, with the value of what you CAN get with a pick in the first three rounds of a dynasty start up or Best Ball…he’s undraftable for me right now. I’m not wasting a top 40-50 pick on a guy who is more likely not playing in 2019 than he is. There are plenty of other viable options to choose than to get slick with guessing Tyreek.

Am I trading him in Dynasty? I’m starting to; a little. Why? Because as this week goes on, the initial shock reaction is over, and the super-slick operators (in their minds) in your league are shopping for a deal. I’m seeing decent offers that I’m telling clients to pull the trigger on where it makes sense.

In a numbers sense, on a scale of 0-10, my Tyreek valuation before all this was 9.5-10.0. And no one else really had him that high, so no deals for me to consider.

When the news hit, his value dropped to 4-5 out of 10. I’d say it’s back to a 6.5-7+ in some places for certain people. You might have 9-11 other people in your league and 8+ of them think Tyreek is the devil and don’t want him, but it only takes one slick bargain hunter.

If I get a strong 7+ out of 10 offer…I’m looking at it to mitigate some risk.

I got a Kelce for Hill and late 2nd-round rookie pick deal this past week. Got a Mayfield (6pts per pass TD) for Tyreek straight. If you take Tyreek and tack on a piece like a 2nd or 3rd-round pick, you might be surprised what one person might be willing to cough up.

What are the odds Tyreek doesn’t play half or all of 2019, for me, right now? I’d say 70%+. Just pure speculation on my part, based on what I am seeing/hearing -- and that’s why I’m willing to deal my once beloved…if I can get a nice deal, getting guys who others undervalue (tight ends, Mayfield or QBs in general, etc.).

If I’m getting offers of 5-6 (out of 10) or less for Tyreek, I’d rather hold and take my chances. 7+...you have my attention.

To each their own making a deal. I don’t want to panic sell, but I get the threat of a massive issue here is very a real. The potential we have a 0-2 value player in a few weeks is daunting. However, he gets cleared and this was a misunderstanding (again, the police investigated before/first-time and determined not to go further) and you sold a 10 for a 7 (out of 10) – you’ll kick yourself.

You wanted to play a game that mimicked what it is like to be an NFL GM…here you go…