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Our draft guide was designed to be an "anti-magazine." Since magazine draft guide data is two-to-four weeks old by the time it hits the marketplace, our desire is to have the latest information out ahead of any magazine or website. When you purchase our draft guide, you are not merely getting a one-time snapshot in time, you are receiving live access to our updates right up to the season's kickoff.
We scout and write game recaps on every single preseason game. Situations change constantly in the NFL. Every injury, trade, release, or signing changes the overall puzzle in some fashion. We update our information based on any new realities. Upon purchase of our draft guide you will be sent an email with a "live link." That link is good for the entire season.
Every time you click the live link a menu of options will pull up prompting in what format you prefer to view the draft guide -- by PPR or standard projections? By alphabetical, by team or by pure top-to-bottom rankings? You choose your way to view, and a new PDF version will pop up in that format with our latest data -- viewable on computer, tablet, or phone and is savable in a variety of forms, including iBooks.
We update the draft guide as news demands in July, but when the preseason camps and games begin -- we often update daily based upon scouting all the games. As the information evolves, our draft guide was designed to evolve with it so our clients have the freshest information possible heading into a draft and/or using to evaluate trades or pickups.
A summary report of key updates is available on our website, to make everyone aware of what/when the latest changes occur. Changes are denoted with a (+/-) next to the players name in the draft guide and cheat sheets. Not only are numbers updated, but the player's summary is updated as well.
We are attempting to scout football players using a "Moneyball" approach -- which utilizes all the data from a prospect's college career: statistical output based upon strength of competition, physical measurables, NFL Combine and Pro-Day data, etc. This data is combined with statistical trends in the pros, i.e. the surrounding depth chart, coach's history, current strength of schedule, injuries, the player's actual NFL performance to-date.
We have analyzed and studied tons of data trying to find the commonality of future great or bust NFL players...before they actually became so. It is an evolving work in progress, and as the NFL (or college) trends shift...we attempt to shift with it.
Our data and projections are in demand by larger outlets. Publishing it in detail would essentially be giving it away for free for others to poach. For the upcoming year (the projection year), we show our projected standard and PPR points-per-game for each player based upon what we see for them in Weeks 1-16 (not including Week-17).
There can be many twists and turns to anyone's scoring rules for players. To keep it as normal/standard as possible, we stick with the traditional scoring to make our projections:
RB-WR-TE = 1 point per 10 yards, 6 points per TD, -2 per fumble (+1 per reception for PPR), and nothing for kick/punt return yards or TDs.
QB = 4 points per TD pass, 1 point per 25 yards passing, -2 points per INT, and see above for the normal rushing calculations.
Team-D = 1 point per sack or fumble recovery, 2 points per INT or safety, 6 points per defensive TD (not kick/punt return TDs), tiered points earned based upon the offensive points allowed to the opponent. We do not factor in kick/punt return TDs with the defense as that is not a true judge of defensive performance, and those returns are incredibly random. We look at things from the defensive standpoint only; you will have to consider how kick/punt returns play into your league (if at all).
Kickers = 1 point per XP, 3 points for 1-39 yards FG, 4 points for 40-49 yards FG, 5 points for a 50+ FG, -3 for a missed FG (unless from 50+, which we make no deduction).
Our player analysis looks at player performances from Weeks 1-16, and excludes Week-17. We believe Week-17 games are mostly a statistical aberration and farce -- some teams having something to play for, and most have nothing to play for. Many teams are sitting starters for some or all of a Week-17 game. We feel player performance is completely skewed in Week-17, so we throw it out. We also project the upcoming year based on Weeks 1-16; we ignore Week-17. That is critical, because our projections are based on talent, trend, and schedule. Assuming Week-17 as just another game in the overall mix taints a player's real Fantasy Football value in our opinion.In our draft guide, anytime you see projected PPG or a snapshot of stats in the prior year -- we are referring to Weeks 1-16, no Week-17 data considered.
Raw totals are nice, but in an effort to study true performance we report on and analyze information on a per-game basis.
We also note partial games played for a player when it is obvious. For example, if an NFL starting QB plays a series or two and then gets hit and is lost for the rest of the game with a concussion -- it is credited to them as a "game played." However, that really messes with the â€˜per game' performance as the QB might have only been in for 0.25 of a game. In instances where it is clear, we will log in games played fractionally.
Because of this, our per-game numbers may not match exactly when looking at a player's historically recorded stats and games played. We try to use this function/judgment only when it is obvious. We are not trying to show bias or be cute -- we only want to see/know what the player is capable of when playing.
A player who sits the entire game, and gets in for garbage time, will not be adjusted. We normally reserve the fractional adjustments for obvious/normal NFL starters and the player who relieved them.
We project all QBs as if they were going to be the starter for Weeks 1-16, so you can see where our computer system evaluates each QB's talent for the upcoming season, but you know who the starters will be (most likely). Sometimes a backup may rate higher than the starter, because our computer values the backup. The same goes for our scoring projections.
In reality, it is a bargain. I don't mean that to be cute. We are going to evaluate and write up 600+ players in our draft guide, and monitored it round-the-clock. It is a 150-200 page book in reality. Not only are there hours of reading and entertainment to be enjoyed, but the "book" keeps updating itself -- a constant scouting report delivered to your doorstep. There are hours and hours of usefulness and entertainment to be had. In addition, you are not doing this for your health -- you are trying to win something, no? Whether for pride and/or monetary gain the guide is an investment to play the game with more (and different) information.
Not only is this draft guide designed to be a snapshot for the upcoming season, but it was also created to be a bible to refer back to during the season -- we are writing up 200+ WRs, 200+ RBs, and 100+ TEs, and 50+ QBs with the purpose of evaluating players when the inevitable injury hits and lesser-known players start to emerge. Our draft guide treats Andrew Luck and Coby Fleener and their lesser-known teammates RB Zurlon Tipton and TE Erik Swoope with the same passion and analysis. We do not just side-note the lesser-known players, or write a 10-word sentence/blurb analysis...we analyze them like all the other Fantasy Football players -- discussing current and long-term possibilities.
What we won't do -- is guarantee you are going to "dominate" your Fantasy league. Our web designer is always asking me if he can use the testimonials for marketing purposes; but the answer is always NO! You will never see: John D. from New York says, "Fantasy Football Metrics helped me win all my leagues." Fantasy Football testimonials make my skin crawl.
We have literally over a million words written on our website for you to access. We publish free projections each week during the season. We offer two unique products: a Fantasy Football Draft Guide, and a College Football/NFL Draft Scouting website service. We are on the record. You can see for yourself what we are all about and the approach we are taking.
Fantasy Football is a game that you are not statistically favored to win the championship in, no matter how great your team is. The smart money is to take the "field" (the other 9 to 11+ teams in your league) versus you to win the title. We guarantee nothing. What we would guarantee is -- you will not find this style of information and player analysis anywhere else. Our passion is player analysis, finding and identifying talent (or busts) ahead of the mainstream, and using this information to help push more odds in your favor in this game we all love.
Even if all our draft guide projections suck royally...it's still pretty entertaining. Cheaper than dinner out or a movie for two...especially considering you will have more than two hours of enjoyment. Plus, our Draft Guide keeps updating throughout the preseason for bonus material...even better than a "DVD extra"!