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Week 16 Mini-Report: RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay v. TEN

This article was originally found in:
Dynasties
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Original Air Date:
December 31, 2020
January 3, 2021

Before we get to the A.J. Dillon material...we'll share the schedule ahead on FFM/CFM -- plenty of free reading material and info on our 2021 subscriber sections opening up. We never let off the gas in the offseason -- so much football news and activity to deal with for fantasy and as handicappers. Join us for it all at Fantasy Football Metrics.com and College Football Metrics.com.

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Coming up on FFM/CFM next week/January…

 

 -- Next week we turn attention to the playoffs…articles on predictions, fantasy thoughts (for those in FF playoff contests…which is growing by leaps and bounds) – and then game reports the following week.

The playoff performances are highly viewed/watched by the public and are thus FF valuation changing events for certain players – and can create unique Dynasty offseason trade for/away opportunities. We monitor, report and discuss the playoff impacts all up and to/through the Super Bowl.

 -- Our annual NFL Awards tournament will publish mid-January…an article series where we go back through and name team MVP, Rookies of the Year, Coaches of the Year, Defensive Players of the Year and then pit them in a battle to the death, tournament style until we announce (with commentary all throughout) our final winner of each category.

 -- One of the biggest things for our January each year = monitoring the new head coaches and doing our full-scale background reports/outlooks and the impacts on the affected Fantasy players and on Handicapping opportunities.

As soon as we have new head coaches, the studies for report can begin.

 -- CFM is going to get started with our annual ‘last three years’ Dynasty Rookie Draft re-do…a draft and commentary on only players from the prior three NFL Drafts/UDFAs (2018-19-20 this year). And then we’ll use that to sprinkle in the early look/valuation of the 2021 prospects by comparison

The start of this draft will greet CFM opening day next week…and it runs all throughout January.

CFM goes full scale mid-January with the debut of the first wave of 2021 full scouting reports, early grades/rankings, Senior Bowl coverage and more.

 -- Dynasty Offseason reports on ‘buy low/sell high’ opportunities/cases will pop in throughout January (and beyond).

 -- And whatever else comes our way.

 

I started mapping out my January work plan, and it is about as packed as the NFL regular season – football, Fantasy-Dynasty study…it never ends. There is no ‘off’season just a different type season. Thank God for that!

Once again, blessings to you and yours for 2021 and thank you so much for your support of our work!!!


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Week 16 Mini-Report: RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay v. TEN

 

I went back through some of the ‘of interest’ game tape/performances from Week 16, took scouting notes, and am sharing some of what I saw this game week – with an eye on Week 17 or long-term/Dynasty/2021.

 

You might have seen this game/performance…especially if you had a Fantasy title game on the line. Some may have missed it for the holiday weekend (if no title game action) or you checked out on the game early when the Packers raced out to a big lead. I watched it live, but then went back through and watched all of A.J. Dillon’s touches – as he had his breakout performance of 2020: 21 carries for 124 yards and 2 TDs, 1 catch for 5 yards.  

I wanted to rewatch this game isolated to just Dillon’s touches/snaps – to see how this unfolded…was it just a nice moment in a blowout in sloppy weather, or something deeper? Here are my notes…

 

1) This was more real than not.

This game …this was the Dillon who I had hoped, who our computer models suspected he could be – a new age Earl Campbell…an Incredible Hulk of a running back who is just too big, too physical to contain easily.

 

2) Don’t forget his measurables…

6’0”/247, a 4.53 runner, 7.19 three-cone, 23 bench reps, a 41.0” vertical.

He’s a freak of nature.

 

3) In the game early…

This was not Dillon entering in for a play here and there, and then getting a run as the game got out of hand. He came in with 4+ minutes left in the 1st-quarter and played so well that he stayed in the whole drive. More shocking…Dillon started the next series and played most of that series snaps.

Later, his key moment…4th & 1, deciding to go for it from 30 yards away – handoff to Dillon and his first TD of the season.

 

4) Un-tackle-able…

That 30-yard TD run…a Tennessee defender dove at/tried to arm whip or grab at an already rolling AJD’s knees at the line of scrimmage – which was a joke. The defender nearly lost a limb in the attempt. Dillon never slowed down. ‘Ran through it’ is an understatement. He then pulled away with only the safety to beat and as the Titans’ DB dove at Dillon’s legs, he was as effective as a bug taking on a windshield of a moving car.

It was that way all night with 2-3-4-5 guys trying to tackle Dillon at times on seemingly 0-1-yard runs that became 3-4-5-yard ones by sheer power.

I previously mentioned that Dillon is a new age Earl Campbell. Do you really remember Campbell from back in the day? Drink in a few minutes of this: https://youtu.be/xkmQNSRVAOg

Now watch, I mean really watch, Dillon’s TEN highlights…look how many people can’t tackle him. It’s something you don’t get in Cam Akers or D’Andre Swift types: https://youtu.be/nRVgULwr-SM

 

5) Dillon is not a liability in the passing game…

Dillon was credited with one catch, but he actually had two catches in the game but lost one to penalty. He caught the ball well considering…considering most people think he can’t be a receiving back on 3rd-downs because of his bulky size. He gets typecast, wrongly, like Leonard Fournette did when he came out.

 

6) Who will be the starting RB for Green Bay in 2021?

Jamaal Williams is a free agent in 2021/a few weeks. So too is Aaron Jones.

What will the Packers do? Which one will they sign? Their salary cap situation forecasts they are not likely to plow a bunch of money into Aaron Jones, plow money into an older, smaller running back – that’s stupidity in today’s NFL economy.

It’s stupid, but NFL teams do it all the time. However, when the Cook’s, Mixon’s Kamara’s were getting early/expensively renewed right before the season began…Aaron Jones didn’t…as the Packers drafted Dillon in the 2nd-round of the 2020 NFL Draft months prior.

It’s very possible A.J. Dillon is the lead dog, starting RB for the Packers Week 1 of 2021 season…with Jamaal Williams as his ‘cuff. We’ll find out in March 2021

 

7) Week 17?

Aaron Jones will be the lead but then I think we’re gonna start to see more Dillon as the two-headed monster tandem of Jones-Dillon could take the Packers in a whole other direction for offensive efficiency…and to the Super Bowl. Week 17 is an opportunity to push Dillon more…but still a 33% snap/touch guy probably – but if the game gets out of hand then he may have another one of these events wrecking a defeated Bears’ defense. 



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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>

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