ffm logo

Fantasy Football Metrics

College Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Get the app

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Analysis – 2017 Preseason Wk 1: 49ers v. Chiefs

Date:
September 9, 2017 3:49 AM
August 13, 2017 7:36 PM

This game couldn’t have started any better for those Tyreek Hill (1-32-0/2) fans among us. First play – bomb to Hill. Second play, bubble screen to Hill (that he dropped). Everything I’ve preached about Hill was shown to you in two plays. One play, Hill as a bomb threat. Next play, Hill with a purposed bubble screen. You can’t stop him…only the coaches can. KC must use him in a variety of ways and they showed two of the extremes right away…and then ‘poof’…no more Hill.

Why?

He’s too valuable to have out there. Alex Smith finished the drive. Spencer Ware felt like he played half the game. Hill…out, early. Respect (unless something else happened, but he didn’t look hurt). I’ve never been more sure about everything I’ve written and projected about Hill after seeing this game. There is some yay-hoo out there among the FF analysts pounding his chest, proclaiming he’s the analyst who has Treek Hill ranked the highest. Ha.

Here are the non-Tyreek notes I have from this game, and there are a lot of them…

— Soon after Tyreek struck like lightning, Chris Conley (2-46-0/2) popped an 80-yard TD on the same exact play as Hill started the game with. It called back for a cheap P.I. on Conley. Soon after, a sweet 29-yard grab. Finally, a tough 17-yard grab getting blown up over the middle – because Conley is that guy…deep ball speed, but tough as nails over the middle if you need it.

As I wrote after Jeremy Maclin was dumped – Chris Conley is the reason why Maclin is gone. He is the team’s #1 WR because he’s ready. Hill will be the weapon of mass chaos like last year only more, but Conley is the classic #1 WR. I wrote all of this months ago, and now I get to watch highly-paid, highly-followed football analysts realize it now as if they were the first to figure it out. This is the business I chose…

Conley is definitely WR3 material in 2017 right now…on his way to WR2-ville.

— Can you believe Kareem Hunt (1-0-0, 1-9-0/1) is the Chiefs starting RB? Yeah, me either. Never did. Beat writer idiot reporting and fantasy sites regurgitating it.

Kareem Hunt isn’t starting…he isn’t even close. What were people trying to peddle you on Rotoworld, et al.? I’m a fan of Hunt…it’s just that I know Spencer Ware (4-6-1, 3-20-0/4) is really good and has 2+ years into this offense. Hunt’s arrival has more to do with (a) Charcandrick West isn’t very good, (b) you always need RB bodies. And Hunt is really good, but it’s not his time right now.

For his part, I had a love and a hate note for Ware in this game. Two people emailed me the same visual – they thought Ware looked slower running the ball. I thought the same. Didn’t have that typical bounce. However, if you watched him go out for passes – he was spry and popping out into the open field with a real nice burst. I’m not going to worry, especially because I cannot love Ware going out for real passes multiple times and seeing targets already in the preseason – the hidden value of Ware is what he can do in the passing game. He might be the Todd Gurley we are all hoping for – solid runner, goal line guy, catches 3-5 passes a game.

It may have been ‘the track’ they were running on for looking slow — because Kareem Hunt looked stuck in mud as well. He’s not a burner as it is.

— Speaking of RBs from this game, there was a Joe Williams (7-60-0, 0-0-0/1) vs. Matt Breida (11-40-0, 2-14-0/2) battle for the #2 RB role taking place. Breida should win that going away but I’m sure Williams will get a draft status push he doesn’t deserve. Both can run straight very fast and slow down dramatically when they have to shift east-west. In addition, Joe Williams has glass hands – it’s while he’ll be out of the league in a few years. FYI, Williams had a fumble in this game. Shocker.

 Patrick Mahomes (7-9 for 49 yards, 1 TD/0 INT) is the future for this franchise. Might be so mid-2017 if the team falters. Might be 2018. Might be 2019. But he’s it.

Mahomes is an odd study, and I wonder how the NFL establishment will take to him. Mahomes, like Davis WebbDak PrescottMitch Trubisky and many others – they are ready for the pros day-one but NFL antiquated thoughts and playbooks hold them back. You could put Mahomes in the shotgun and throw every other down and have a very good offense…and some bad turnovers from time to time.

The NFL is so turnover adverse, I don’t know how they will report/react when Mahomes throws dumb picks trying to make real plays. NFL coaches don’t want QBs making plays…they want them executing the play call without error. Mahomes is the master of improv and intuition…sometimes he gets it wrong and makes bad throws. Will people kill him for it? We’ll see. People seem pretty in love with him, so he figures to have the latitude that Davis Webb likely doesn’t have. Mahomes is the 180 degrees opposite of Alex Smith…it’s going to be very interesting how this plays out.

— There were a lot of good-looking 2nd-3rd+ team WRs in this game. A lot. The best of which, on this night, seemed to be 49ers UDFA Kendrick Bourne (4-88-1/7) – teammate/running mate with Cooper Kupp at Eastern Washington.

I liked Bourne on tape some, saw he was a decent WR, but the 4.68 40-time at the NFL Combine with 9 bench reps glossed over a sweet 6.73 three-cone…and my system analysis yawned. Measurables debate aside, the guy looked like he’d been playing in the NFL for five years here — great debut. Maybe the best UDFA WR debut I’ve seen so far, without a lot of thought about it.

Bourne’s sweet splash took away from probably the best WR on this day – Aldrick Robinson (2-83-0/4). The guy is going to send Marquise Goodwin (1-14-0/2) crashing down the depth chart any time now. We have to see if Bourne does the same to backups. I think DeAndre Smelter and friends are done. Jeremy Kerley is living on borrowed time. Former CFM love DeAndre Carter (2-40/3) looked good but not as good as those other guys.

And then there’s Trent Taylor (3-33-0/3) who may be better than all of them in his own Welker-way.

The real winner on this night of great 49er WR performances – 2018 starting QB Kirk Cousins.

The loser – Pierre Garcon (0-0-0/1) being assumed to get every target this year.

— Another loser – Vance McDonald (0-0-0/1). He might as well not even be on the team. He’s a blocker…that’s it. His FF value is the 49ers trading him to where he’s wanted.

— You know who looked OK, but not as good as WRs 1-7 on the 49ers, Demarcus Robinson (1-7-0/1) for KC. He’s not a star and he is a knucklehead, but he can play.

— KC IDP Kevin Pierre-Louis (2 tackles) update…don’t hold your breath. Didn’t run with the starters. Was an ILB 2nd-team…but didn’t do anything exciting with his time.

You know who WAS starting at ILB? IDP love child for years — Daniel Sorensen (1 tackle). If he starts – he matters in IDP.

— OK, how many teams will 3rd-year DE Marcus Rush (3 tackles, 1 sack) bounce around to every preseason and just line up and sack everything in sight? The guy may be the best pass rusher in the NFL for all we know…and he can never even make a roster – hell, he can’t even stick with a team. The guy has played like 9 preseason games over the past 3 years, so far, and has like 47 sacks, 83 pressures and been on 14 different rosters. Those numbers may not be fully accurate. He had 3 QB hits in this game. He’s amazing…and never even gets activated to main rosters.

Am I the only one who watches the preseason games not involving the Patriots? If the Patriots gave Rush a tryout, saw him make 9 sacks a game in the preseason, then cut him…a team would claim him and sign him to a five year/$40M deal because ‘Belichick’. No such luck yet for Rush. It’s absurd.

— I started to get excited about Rueben Foster (2 tackles, 1 TFL) for IDP because ‘snaps‘…and the media love, and the numbers that come with playing all the time. I watched him a lot in this game and was re-reminded he sucks. He’s the Myles Jack of 2017…and an awful human. I tap out, again.

— Very good human being and rookie IDP Solomon Thomas (2 tackles) looked OK, nothing ‘wow’ or bad. He moved fine, played well.

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>