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An 11,000+ Word Discussion/Battle over Josh Allen's Future in the NFL

Date:
May 4, 2018

You may have enjoyed our draft chat series a month or so ago with the CFM 'draft chat' crew, most notably our NFL and Dynasty Rookie Mock Drafts with our commentaries/debates. There were some funny lines and memorable moments...especially when pick #3 of the NFL Mock Draft was Josh Allen by Myles Crowe...and the other draft analysts totally lost it and a war of words erupted over Allen's talent or lack thereof. It was thousands of words on just that pick alone. Well...

After the draft, the group was still chatting 'off the record' and Josh Allen came back up again...someone picked at the scab. From that, 11K+ more words took place with everyone trying to defend their positions. It was highly entertaining (or frustrating depending upon which side you were on). It was a shame to let all this Allen material go because it was some good stuff. So, our Jason Katz took about a billion emails back and forth and shaped it into the proper timeline for the post-Mock Draft debate on Allen, and here it is for your enjoyment...

*Just note, don't anyone print this and save this -- I want no evidence existing of this if Allen becomes a star. I will delete all this from the websites and lose Myles's contact info and pretend this never happened... ;)

**Make sure you have a lot of work time to kill, etc., before starting this because this car is going a long way and riving all over the road, but there is a lot of methods to everyone's madness debating this here. It's beyond just looking at Allen's weak Comp Pct and washing your hands of it...this gets down deep to the core of the issues with him...or the opportunity.

(It started with this one simple email post-our Mock Draft) MC: By the way..... hey RC, is Dan Orlovsky one of your site members by any chance?  It's funny that right after I finished isolating that one particular play of Josh Allen's, Orlovsky does the exact same.   

https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/984746132977922048

 

Katz: I recently started following Dan Orlovsky. I'll give him a chance to prove himself as a good judge of talent. His disdain for Josh Allen is a great start!

 

MC: hahaha at Katz.   

Yup, his disdain is off to a great start, especially when it gets corrected by 3 other ex NFL players.  :P

 If Allen had a 3rd year in Wyoming's prostyle system, or a 3rd year in any major program's system for that matter (just like all the other QBs in this draft), then I firmly believe the country would be revering him as the consensus #1 QB right now.  Besides his putrid ground game placing him in an astonishingly high percentage of 2nd/3rd & longs like I previously mentioned, the poor kid was pressured on 40% of his attempts, by far the highest of the group..... which makes it all the more problematic for Allen's efficiency as he's basically forced to carry the offensive burden by himself and attempt throws that he otherwise wouldn't b/c he knows the ground game sure as heck won't help the offense move the chains or put points on the board.    Mayfield might've performed well under pressure, but it becomes a different animal when that pressure is never ending. Not to mention, not all pressures are created equal. Having one defender encroaching your personal passing space behind Oklahoma's solid offensive line is entirely different than trying to complete a pass in the face of a jail break behind Wyoming's disturbingly bad blocking unit.   Lot of extenuating circumstances to be considered when evaluating Allen unfortunately.  

 

END: Josh Allen only completed 49% of his passes in JUCO??!!!! Are you kidding me? 

 

RC: He didn't have NFL weapons to throw to there is why…

 

END: That brings up something else that occurred to me. This excuse that his receivers at Wyoming were terrible...so were every other QB’s in that conference and they still completed passes at a functional rate. Why aren’t the other QB’s from that conference considered gods for playing with terrible teams and having better stats than Allen?  And another thing: why is Josh Allen’s size and arm strength considered “potential”? Name one quarterback in the league who is good because he is big and has a strong arm. Those things can help, but how many of us think Tom Brady is better than Russell Wilson because he’s taller? Shouldn’t the fact that Josh Allen has the “look” of a quarterback (ignoring the fact that every QB in the league is built differently and only a few meet the ridiculous prototype) and done nothing with it count against him? He’s always had great size so why wasn’t he recruited to play D1 ball? Big guys like him get more chances than short guys like Mayfield precisely because they are big and allegedly have more potential. And yet nobody wanted him. I think it’s telling. Whereas Mayfield has been snubbed every step of the way because he doesn’t fit some magical threshold for height and he’s succeeded despite it. Look at it this way: if you were to go to two doctors because you needed surgery and one of the doctors was tall and elegant and smooth shaven, he wore glasses and spoke eloquently, was dressed nicely and had several degrees on his wall from prestigious universities and the other was short and fat with a patchy beard, messy clothes, spoke with a New Jersey street accent, and had a degree from a small college, assuming they were both equally accomplished, who would you rather go to? Give me the short fat one all day. He had to overcome other people’s biases to reach his position. He didn’t “look” like a surgeon. Image only counts for actors and endorsements. Results breed more results. 

 

Katz: Adding to END's point - yeah, maybe his WRs were horrible...but so were the opposing cornerbacks. The caliber of athlete in general is lower across the board. If you put a D1 QB in a D2 school and gave him D2 WRs and put him up against D2 defenders, if he's good, he will find a way to complete passes.

 

END: This Josh Allen thing is amazing. I’ve never seen the community so divided on a prospect. Whoever ends up being correct will forever use him as a case study. He’ll either be the ultimate “tools” bust for the metrics side or he’ll be the poster boy for the old school projection guys. Unless he ends up being Joe Flacco and nobody gets closure...

 

MC: There's a difference when ALL THREE of your main targets are inexperienced sophomore 1st-yr-starters.  Why does this bold part keep getting ignored? Watch the film.  They rarely created the level of separation that a guy like Mayfield was frequently afforded.   If the caliber of athlete at WR/TE is roughly = to the caliber at CB/LB/S in the Mountain West, then that means the positional battles will favor the defense if they have MORE EXPERIENCE and GREATER DEVELOPMENT than their offensive counterparts.  That in mind, I HIGHLY DOUBT that any defense on Wyoming's schedule had its 3 most important coverage guys being inexperienced 1st-yr-starting sophomores..... and I know by looking at every Mountain West offense that Allen's trio of top targets were the most inexperienced in the conference.    Additionally, it seems like it keeps escaping everyone's minds that this is a pro style system. It's bad enough being a QB in a spread offense with a trio of inexperienced 1st year starters as your main targets; it's even worse when it's in a pro style offense, seeing as things like timing, rhythm, and progressions are more significant.   

 

What was Tom Brady's passer rating in 2013 when Gronk was out for most of the year, Edelman out for 5 games, and Amendola out for 10 games (his top 3 targets)?  That's right, it was 87.3.... and Tom only completed 60% of his attempts.    But who cares if the receivers filling in were a bunch of inexperienced guys amIright?     What are the excuses as to why Brady's completion% ranked 21st that year, behind guys like Chad Henne, Christian Ponder, Jay Cutler, Matt Schaub, and Ryan Fitzpatrick?  He just forgot how to play quarterback after 13 years did he?   

Why does everyone persist on ignoring one of the worst RUSHING OFFENSES in the country that Allen had behind him?  -what, because it doesn't fit the narrative either? If ANY quarterback is in an endless stream of 2nd/3rd & Long, his production is going to suffer, period.  It is statistically proven to be true.  This was easily the worst rushing offense in the Mountain West at 3.2 YPC and 1,414 yards, which means that the defenses in the Mountain West were able to focus on teeing off on Wyoming's QB more than any other in the conference.   

Why does everyone persist on ignoring that Allen's pass protection was so terrible that he was pressured a whopping 40% of his attempts? -what, because it doesn't fit the narrative?  I guess Hall of Famers like Brady & Manning can look like s**t in games when they're pressured continuously for 60 minutes but apparently a 2nd year college guy can't?  What happened to Andrew Luck in 2015 when his O-line was hot garbage? -He completed just 55.3% and had a passer rating of 74.9..... after looking like one of the best QBs in the league the year prior.   I'm astonished at how many offensive linemen were selected highly in our recent 1st round mock when it seems you guys strongly believe their role in the passing offense is trivial.   

And why does everyone persist on ignoring that Allen only has 2 years in a pro style offense (or any FCS offense for that matter), whereas everyone else [in every draft] has 3-5 years? -what, because it also doesn't fit the narrative?  Carson Wentz didn't even start until year 4 in this same system... but I guess it's silly on anyone's part to expect notable development over those 3rd & 4th years. 

So we've got 4 significant issues working AGAINST Josh Allen that he has absolutely no control over, but apparently he's supposed to block for himself, run routes and catch for himself, fix the ground game by himself to avoid all those dreadful 2nd/3rd & Longs, and have 4 years of learning, reps, and development accelerated into 2.

 

END: 1. He might have had 3 first time sophomores, but his numbers were just as awful the year before with plenty of future draftees helping him.  

 2. Yes Brady’s numbers (and every other QB’s) go down if they lose all of their top targets. But Brady’s were still functional. He still got yards and points. Josh Allen did not.  

3. The rush offense was bad, but was Allen hurt by an awful run game, or was the run game bad because defenses did not fear Josh Allen? 

4. I’m not sure where the 40% pressure comes from. The number I have is 25%. No more than any other QB, and less than some. I’ve also got him only coming off his first read 20% of the time and completing a pathetic 40% of his passes when forced off his first read. And the most troubling of all, 28% when trying to throw into tight windows. 

 

Allen clearly has some skills. He looks like a champ in shorts with no pressure in his face. If you can teach him to stay calm under pressure, survey the field, keep solid mechanics, and deliver quick passes into tight windows then yes you could have a freak QB. But my question is: why on earth should I believe this is feasible when he hasn’t shown even the slightest knack for it and there’s not one case I can think of in the NFL where coaches helped a QB improve that much? Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? Not at all. I suppose it’s a decision of how the risk weighs against the upside. 

 

MC: a little research tells us why Josh Allen wasn't recruited to D1 ball.   He's from a 2-stoplight farm town that wasn't a priority destination for any college program..... was a spindly 6'3 180.... and as a result of both, he didn't participate in any of the elite QB camps or 7-on-7 tournaments that promote exposure.    

Since having zero D1 or P5 offers is a sign of lack of NFL potential for big-armed QBs, can someone please explain Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, and Roethlisberger to me? ..... or explain why, as of 2015, a mere 8 of the 53 QBs to start in the NFL in 2014 were 5-star recruits?  5 of those comprised of Cassell, Henne, Sanchez, Clausen, and Mallett.... with the 3 viable starters being Peyton Manning, Stafford, and Palmer.   The no-name group of Rodgers, Wentz, Ben, Romo, Garoppolo, and Flacco actually represents better than the 5-star group.  

Anyone who loves Josh Allen (and actually knows a little about talent assessment), will tell you that the reason they're smitten with him expands WELL BEYOND just size & arm strength alone.  If all that you yourself see in him is just size & arm strength, please stop assuming or pretending that that's all the pro-Allen camp is capable of seeing in him as well.  If all I saw was another Ryan Mallett, I'd hate him.   

Beyond arm & size is the athleticism, mobility, toughness, pocket feel, escapability, tremendous ability to make throws when plays break down, experience in a pro style system, the legitimate NFL caliber throws that he nails and nails in ways that only a few people on the planet can........ and oh yeah- there's the intelligence, the most important part of the QB game today, and Allen's demonstrated during the postseason process that he has it, just blowing people away with his eidetic memory in meetings.... and that's the same stuff that Wentz was doing.  You've got a guy who's mentally showing himself like a Chad Pennington, in the size and arm of a Drew Bledsoe, but the mobility & athleticism of an Archie Manning...... a guy who's among the highest in Adjusted Accuracy in this draft on throws between 2.1 to 3.0 seconds (It's not surprising that Allen's completion% drops significantly after 3.0 seconds and damages his overall percentage when his porous O-line  allowed him to be pressured 40% of the time... And he also wasn't afforded an abundance of sub-2-second quick throws with which to pad his statistical percentage b/c that's not how a pro style offense operates. Context.).  

 

MC: 

1. You mean his 1st year in the system?.... let alone 1st year in a pro style system?   

2. Was Brady's passing efficiency hurt significantly by losing all his targets or not? That's the question here.  His Passer Rating that year was 27 pts below his recent 7 yr avg. Is that small potatoes or is it legitimate?   And how about Brady's 21st ranked completion% out of 32 QBs? -C'mon now.  Brady still got yards and points b/c his offense still threw the ball a ton and because he, unlike Allen, was a HIGHLY EXPERIENCED veteran QB (like 15 total years on Allen at that point) .... and with a good offensive line protecting him and the league's 9th best rushing offense at his back.  

3. Respectfully, you're reaching here by suggesting defenses didn't fear Allen.  Firstly, they wouldn't have come after him so hard if they didn't fear him.  Secondly, Wyoming's ground game ranked 25th in 2016 and had an 1,860 yard rusher, Brian Hill.  

The reason why Wyoming's ground game was terrible last year is the same reason why Josh Allen was pressured 40% of his snaps- the offensive line sucked.... and b/c Brian Hill was replaced by a FRESHMAN starting RB (Trey Woods)..... but when your O-line is allowing your QB to be pressured 40% of the time, you're kinda forced to run more often on run downs.  And then on all the 3rd & Longs when you DO have the throw the ball downfield, Wyoming's weak line doesn't provide Allen the time to do so. 

 

Here's the sad state of Wyoming's offensive line:

Center- true freshman

RT- true freshman

RG-  2 MCL injuries on the year for Kaden Jackson

LG- Ryan Cummings ended 2016 on IR.... didn't come back to full strength in 2017.... started opener at RT, then moved to LG for first time in career.... then missed 2 games from concussion.... then moved back to RT for 2 games after the starter injured his knee,  then missed multiple weeks to a life-threatening illness after playing 2 weeks through it.... and then played 2 more games after the illness (in a weakened state).  

Backup LG- true sophomore

 

Coach Bohl said the youth on the line was part of the reason Wyoming was so gun-shy in taking shots downfield.... and also mentioned "We were also concerned about pass protection. True freshman Velazquez out there on one side against a really good defensive end, and so that clock's running; you only have so many seconds." 

So basically around Allen was an offense chalk full of inexperienced guys- the most inexperienced target trio in the conference, a true freshman starting RB, and a pair of true freshman starting linemen.... to go with a pair of injury-plagued linemen. 

 

MC: Something Todd McShay noticed and mentioned after 3 games this year: “He’s getting pressured, not every time, but just about I’d say 70 percent of his drop backs, he’s either getting pressure early — before 2 1/2 seconds — or his receivers aren’t separating so he’s forced to hold the ball and move and avoid pressure and then try to reset and throw. Or throw on the run while a defender is closing in on him,” McShay said. “What are you supposed to do?”  

 

END: His history is actually very interesting, but I didn’t remotely claim that because he got no D1 offers he wasn’t good. Mayfield barely did and I’ll support him all day because I see an actual QB when I watch him.  

I want to be clear about something though. I am not trying to dismiss your arguments, make assumptions, or pretend. I'm sorry if I made you feel that way. I am simply struggling to understand because nothing I've found suggests this guy is a starting quarterback. I'm very curious where you are getting these numbers from. Do you mind sharing your source? Because the compilation statistics I've seen paint a very different picture. I'm trying hard to understand, I really am. I would love to be proven wrong here, because that would mean I learned something. But I just don't see it. You tell us to watch the tape. We've all watched it and we all see an inaccurate QB with poor decision making. You tell us to look at the numbers, and all I see is statistics that tell the exact opposite story of what you're telling me. I even heard that he wasn't very impressive on the white boards. I just don't know how I can be expected to come to a different conclusion when all the evidence I've seen points a totally opposite direction. That's what I mean when I say this guy is the most polarizing I've ever seen. 

 

If those O-line descriptions are true then that is a significant point for your argument I'll grant you. 

 

RC: I’ve always believed that a QB with a lot of pressures and low completions and high turnovers is a sign that the QB holds the ball too long...if a half second or second too long. I think that was David Carr’s issue. When the media loves the QB it’s the line’s fault. 

If Allen’s 2017 was radically different from his 2016 then we could see if there were events forcing it. Allen has had to have excuses for his play for 4+ years. 

He wasn’t physically ready. He’s a country bumpkin. He wasn’t ready for pro style. He couldn’t overcome OLine last year. He didn’t have weapons last year. He was pressured too much. The coach ran too much on 1st down. 

We have seen him be bad/mediocre — and let’s say all those reasons are valid... let’s say Allen never had a fair shot. 

How does anyone know he can be an NFL QB then? We know he can fail. Has anyone seen evidence of being an NFL starter good? What is an NFL team betting on? A QB who no one has any idea if he can handle the pros, non-perfect line, prostyle, big city, etc. 

OK to all the excuses, let’s say, but why is everyone religiously tied that he’s secretly great when he’s never shown it at any level and all we have are excuses why not. If all the issues are addressed — OLine, weapons, how do we know he’s good? If he gets all that he needs/was missing — what if he still sucks? If A team has a perfect surrounding — wouldn’t any decent Qb work under this theory? 

All we have to hope on is a few sweet arm throws on tape. Hell, let me go get Tavaris Jackson’s tape if you want to see some frozen ropes. 

I don’t how the Allen case of a few good throws, a strong arm, all statistical failure in college (comparing among top prospects) but a ton of reasons why he was as bad — how does this equal #1 draft pick? How have people latched onto this faith-based QB so hard? An NFL team is going to waste a high pick, a ton of payroll, for a guy who needs 2-3 yr adjustment period — and then maybe we’ll see if he’s any good. Why not just take Bradley Chubb and get an instant impact? 

I get the reasons why he failed. I don’t get the case for why he’s good. 

 

MC: To clarify, Allen's basically a 2 year guy.  We can't count 1 year at a little community college, nor a full year missed to injury.   

Outside of the Iowa, Oregon, and Boise St games where Wyoming's offense was heavily outmatched, Allen threw just 1 INT the rest of the season..... and that lone pick was under heavy duress with Allen looking like he was trying to throw the ball away.  So there's that to run with as a positive.  Those 3 aforementioned games were losses, obviously..... but then Wyoming went 8-0 the rest of the season with Allen..... and then 0-2 in the two games he missed (vs Fresno St and 2-11 San Jose St).   

So, how does a QB with such alleged "accuracy issues" throw just 1 INT over 8 games.... despite literally having a terrible offensive line.... despite being placed in an obscene amount of 2nd/3rd & Long predictable passing situations.... and despite having a trio of 1st-yr-starting primary targets?  

This is how bad Wyoming's offense was around Allen:  in that San Jose State game he missed, Wyoming scored 17 points..... with 7 of those coming in the final minute while trailing by 10.   Just how bad is that you ask?  Well, San Jose State's scoring defense ranked 4th WORST in the nation, allowing 41.7 ppg.... in the Mountain West Conference.  This is a defense that allowed 61 pts to Utah State and whose only win of the year prior to an Allen-less Wyoming was to Cal Poly........ yet Wyoming minus Josh Allen actually made the nation's 4th worst defense look like Alabama through 59 minutes.... being held to 10 pts and 13 of 33 passing for 112 yards and 2 INT.

 

*A friend of mine with ties to the scouting community is who informed me of Allen's eidetic memory blowing people away in meetings. 

*I'll have to double check the 40% pressures, as it's from someone who's usually rock solid with their figures.  

 

RC: I can answer the throwing 1 INT in 8 games question... When you face the likes of Gardner-Webb, New Mexico and Texas State your odds go up of having turnover free games. 

The Josh Allen arguments cannot be -- ignore all the games he played poorly against tougher opponents in because of his horrible O-Line, terrible WRs and stupid coaching BUT do endorse all the games he played bottom 100+ CFB teams/defenses because taking advantage them and their talent deficiencies doesn't matter when it supports Allen's case. And still he's inaccurate completion-wise against those bad teams, just lower turnovers.

There is no Josh Allen evidence that can suffice for an Allen truther. Everything is "well, whaddya expect when..." OK, but how do I know he'd be good against Boise State or Iowa or Nebraska, etc., if he had all the great O-Lines and superior weapons he supposedly lacks/needs? Why do we have to assume Allen would be great if he had all these things he's missing? Where's the proof of Allen ever great against great competition? He isn't even ever close to great in games against equal competition besides a 100mph throw here or there. He's not the first QB to ever face a lot of pressure...how about he shows he can shorten his game and be smart enough to take what the defense gives him? Why is he so stupid as to constantly drop back and sit and look deep, and not work more short game to set up deep and slow down the pass rush -- I'll tell you why, it's another sign of a scared QB who cannot read defenses. Guys like him want to throw long as much as possible because they can see a guy streaking deep better than anything over the middle/short around congestion...plus he has a gift to throw the ball a long way. To me, Allen is the primary cause of his bad numbers more than his surroundings are forcing it.

I agree...he's a for sure NFL prospect. How he gets top 3 draft status is a mystery to me because I don't get why people would bet so heavily on something that's never happened (Allen dismantling good-great opponents with consistent precision). Why would I bet on a thing I've never seen -- when I have several legit QB options like Mayfield-Rudolph-Falk...and maybe they are all B's -- but I don't why an NFL team should burn a #1-2-3 pick for the hopes of an 'A' or an 'F' QB today...and the 'A' part comes with all the contingencies of having to have the perfect everything to work...hopefully.

If we say any of these guys would fail or thrive depending upon environment in the NFL...then why are we arguing any of them top 5 in the draft? Teams should be drafting an OLineman or WR and running with any old decent QB...if it's all about surroundings. 

MC is making a great case why Allen is worth a look, a top 100 look. I think everyone else is arguing that he's not a smart top 1-5 draft pick bet given the evidence we all see. 

 

Isn't football scouting and draft talk fun? Kudos to MC for taking on the barrage -- it's been great to really take a deeper look at Allen because MC is not wrong with anything he's saying. It makes us all re-think and re-examine, making sure we're not missing hidden value. MC's case has validity -- I just think the case he makes is why Allen might have been so bad. It's not a case for how Allen is actually good...because for that there's no evidence. It's a leap of faith hope he's good because the bad Allen career all has excuses applied --.which is not my cup of tea prospect as a top 5 pick (unproven leaps of faith) when I see a lot of other great teas out there. 

 

I saw this tidbit I thought was interesting...comparing QBs throwing under pressure. 

 

 

MC: I feel like I'm in the twilight zone here WADR.  When Allen was out, Wyoming lost to 1-11 San Jose State....... as San Jose's putrid 124th ranked scoring defense held Wyoming's offense to 10 pts through 59 minutes.... on 13/33 passing for 112 yards and 2 INT. There are no words to describe how disturbingly hideous that is.   And that was against a Wyoming 4th year QB who would've been the starter the past 2 seasons if Allen didn't transfer in..... so I really prefer not to hear anything about Wyoming/Allen facing the other Mountain West schools when their defenses are even better than the vomit-worthy SJS one that an Allen-less Wyoming offense made look like Alabama.   Take a moment to fully digest that paragraph..... a few times if need be please..... before trying to sell me the snake oil that is Allen allegedly "taking advantage of those other lesser teams".  How is Allen supposed to "take advantage" of ANYONE when the 4th worst defense in the country is capable of obliterating his offense?!!!!!   

That San Jose St game shows us exactly how terrible and inexperienced the offense was around Josh Allen..... and on no football planet can a QB do it all by himself when everything else around him is crumbling.   Two 1st-year-starters at WR... a 1st-yr-starter at TE.... a true freshman starter at RB (the RB and TE have pass-blocking responsibilities too).... two true freshman starting at O-line..... and 2 O-linemen notably hindered by injury.  How do you guys believe that that has no significant bearing on passing efficiency?.... and how can you guys possibly believe that a QB should be able to overcome it all by himself?.... especially in an antiquated pro-style offense that places even more strain on the QB than even a regular pro-style offense does.   Find me one guy who's done it and I'll call Allen a 3rd rounder.  You won't succeed....... but what you will find is a QB who SHOULD be in the Hall of Fame but isn't b/c he was in the same situation for years in New Orleans - Archie Manning.  Archie might've been better than both of his kids combined, but he'll go down as a forgotten name to most b/c the offense around him was a Wyoming-esque disaster for a long time.   

Again, the only time during Mayfield's season that he faced the typed of heavy pressure, the small windows, and the 3rd & Longs that Allen faced ALL SEASON was during the 2nd half vs Georgia.... and we all know what happened in that 2nd half..... so just stop with this narrative please... just stop.  Baker might've faced Ohio St, but the Buckeyes didn't effect Oklahoma's offense the way UGA did in that 2nd half.   

Yes I'm getting a little heated here sorry.  The wifey is out of town a few days, so I'm into some weekday bourbon for a change celebrating my temporary freedom, lol. 

 

**BTW, the 41% pressure rate for Allen was in a PFF stat. 

 

MC:  BTW, I completely understand the reasoning for "not betting on something you feel you've never seen".  As someone who employs a risk-averse approach myself to a lot of my drafting, I can very much appreciate and understand where you're coming from here, RC. That's probably the best argument I've heard to avoid making him a high 1st round pick.  Thanks to the reduced rookie wage scale where we're only paying $20 million to a high draft pick rather than $75 million or whatever, I have no problem whatsoever taking a QB at 1 who possesses an incredibly immense upside despite not being afforded the opportunity to display it in college.  

 

I will add: there were plenty of valid reasons within that Wyoming offense for Allen to try and throw long and force balls into tighter coverage at times, thus instigating many onlookers to perceive him as a poor decision maker.  Heck, maybe underneath it all he actually is a poor decision maker, who knows.  Removing the underlying factors, I didn't see a poor decision maker myself, but I've been wrong before about a prospect, and QB is certainly the most difficult position to accurately assess b/c of all the variables involved.  I get the position correct most of the time but I've missed terribly on a few guys.  

 

RC: Enjoy your bachelor night by talking about Josh Allen pro v. con...we all lead a sad existence!! 

 If my justification for taking a QB #3 is 'look how bad his team was against San Jose State without him'...I'm not sure I put a top 5 pick valuation on that nugget. I've got little to sink my teeth into FOR Allen. I just haven't see the tape or data that gets me excited. And that's the crux of my Allen issue -- an interesting prospect to develop? Yes. Top 3, save a franchise in 2018...no. And that's in an era where QBs are walking in and storming the league as rookies. If everyone proposed -- hey, Allen might be something, take him 3rd round and give him 2 years to see what happens, I think everyone would be down with that. It's this flimsy body of work (excusable or not)/question marks being pushed to a top 3-5 status that's the insanity, to me. 

You have the 100% right argument, in my opinion, on why Allen should be a 3rd round gamble pick...heck, maybe even late 2nd. But top 3-5 overall, knowing you're going to wait a year or two and hope you got this right -- that's the crime for desperate teams with other great options to take, I think. Meanwhile, a very talented Mason Rudolph is sitting there getting totally dissed by the all the analysts (until Belichick met with him). Quality Luke Falk is totally ignored. 

I love the dichotomy -- Josh Allen has a weak, statistical career, and analysts bend over backwards to explain why it isn't bad. Then Luke Falk is absolutely fantastic as a college QB, a producer...everything you could want in a professional, dedicated to craft QB, and all the analysts time is spent tearing him down with a 15-second explanations on how his numbers are no good because 'Washington State'. Down is up, right is left. I can't keep track of what matters anymore. I just know it's fun!!

Over to Baker -- I do like that Mayfield doesn't face as much pressure percentage-wise...because he gets the ball out of his hands so fast because he can read and dissect defenses so quickly. You blame the surroundings for the pressure %s...I blame the QB more than any other thing in college. It's likely why Luke Falk is the lowest against pressure showing...he's a brilliant QB. Although I don't trust PFF tracking at all because Luke Falk worked in pretty muddy pockets all the time from my research, he just shifted around and away from the pressure a lot/like a pro. Allen standing there and it reaching him or he moved into it...not a feather in his cap. Other QBs are more adept at avoiding pressure or finding things over the middle -- another issue with Allen, pocket awareness. It's not all the O-Line or sophomore WRs, the QB takes the blame if he keeps doing the same stupid stuff all year and not adjusting. Allen is always/often looking deep and to the sidelines (where it's safer/easier for him) and teams can pressure him outside and take that away because he wont fire darts over the middle and pick apart a defense that way. It's easier to design pressure/to pressure the QB if you know they rarely work short/over the middle successfully. 

I think Allen's issues comes down to poor pocket presence, holds the ball too long, can't read the field as well as the other top QBs, and doesn't like throwing between the hashes...and it all adds up to low comp. pct. rationale. I never watched the tape of Allen and thought a crime was being committed with his numbers...that there was any disconnect. The tape/inaccuracy fit his style of QB play. Maybe he's a raw piece of clay to be worked in the NFL? Always possible. The arm and size are there. He's definitely more 'develop' than 'franchise' at this stage. 

 

END: Calling our arguments a narrative isn't remotely fair. I could make a good argument that since the stats say he was bad the narrative is actually that he was good in context. By criticizing Allen we are not telling an elaborate story about why he was bad despite the fact that he threw for 4000 yards and 50 TD's. Quite the reverse. Where am I concocting a narrative in pointing out that he has far more godawful overthrows every game than he does impressive NFL looking passes?  

The backup QB Nick Smith played a terrible game against San Jose St it's true, but just the week prior he played an excellent game against the Mountain West west division champs Fresno St going 20/32 for 231 yards and a TD and barely losing 13-7.  

Of his 8 wins 7 of them were against teams with FPI's 100+. His only decent win coming against 71st ranked Utah St. 12 of his 16 TD's came against Gardner-Webb (D2), Texas St (127th), New Mexico (114th), and Central Michigan (109th). Against 126th ranked Hawai'i (127th in defense) he went 9/19 for 64 yards, 0 TD's, and an INT. Against Air Force (101st) he went 8/11 for 70 yards and a TD. Against Colorado St (105th) he went 10/20 for 138 yards. His only games all year over 60% completion were Gardner-Webb, Colorado St, and Air Force (where he only threw 11 passes). Wyoming's defense by the way was ranked 30th in the country and consistently held opponents under 20 points. They seem to be a far bigger reason why Wyoming won 8 games than Josh Allen. His advanced stats weren't overly worse in 2017 than 2016, but his yds/a did drop significantly. His completion % however was just as bad when throwing to Tanner Gentry and Jacob Hollister. I'll give him this, he doesn't many picks (at least in 2017), but I just watched every throw against Iowa, and while I'll grant you Wyoming was severely outclassed that game, he still threw 2 INT's and should have had 2 more. You could argue against the one on the RB screen to end the game. Not sure about this pro style offense thing because I counted only 9 throws from under center out of 40. 25/40 throws were under 10 yards and a large majority of those were less than 5. I counted only 2 drops albeit one for a TD. Only 9 pressures all night. He held the ball too long a few times including one after he made an amazing play to escape pressure and ended up taking a sack anyways. He missed hot reads, stared down receivers, overthrew the ball horribly 5 times by my count. I noted 2 impressive throws.  

In the same division on equally horrible teams, Hawaii QB Dru Brown went 61.7%, 6.8 yd/a, 2785 yds, 18 TD's 8 INTs. Colorado St's Nick Stevens went 61.9% 8.3 yds/a 3799 yards 29 TDs and 10 INTs. Texas State's QB Damien Williams threw 58.3% for 6.19 yds/a, 2061 yds, and 12 TD's to 9 INT's in the Sun Belt which is arguably worse than the Mountain West.  

I'm going to keep going through every game of his as I had only seen a few prior to this. After watching that game I understand your position a little better. He wasn't putrid, but he definitely wasn't good either. He took his dump passes all night, but he rarely challenged the middle and when he did he got burned. I'm going to watch him versus Utah St next as that was his most evenly matched team.  

I also think that watching him in 2016 might be interesting. Let's see how he was when he had legit NFL weapons and threw 28 TD's and 15 INTs. 

 

 

MC: Sorry about the "narrative comment"..... but that's what it frustratingly felt like when I'm providing sound information about just how disadvantaged Wyoming's offense was around Allen compared to the defenses he faced, yet you guys insisted on claiming that Allen somehow had an advantage over everyone b/c of the conference he played in.  Now, you don't have to agree with my assessment of Allen obviously, but to completely disregard pertinent factual information I'm submitting makes me feel like you're thinking, "this doesn't fit to my belief of Allen or my argument against him so I'm gonna completely ignore and instead claim the exact opposite on this front".   

You're still kinda doing it with your Fresno St game reference.  I illustrated how disastrous Wyoming's offense was w/o Allen against San Jose St..... and then you counter it with the Fresno St game, twisting it into seeming like a positive, when in reality what we have is an Allen-less Wyoming offense scoring just 7 pts.... with that lone TD occurring vs prevent D in the final minutes while trailing by 13. 

Through the first 56 minutes vs Fresno St, an Allen-less Wyoming offense was once again putrid --   0 pts, 98 passing yards (175 total tards), 2 turnovers, 11 completionsand 2.7 rushing avg .... but you're gonna try and convince me that the QB Nick Smith somehow did a good job?  C'mon now.  I have no interest in swamp land, END.  :P

 

If we add the first 59 minutes of the San Jose St game with the first 56 minutes of the Fresno St game (you know- before prevent D), you get a very very ugly combined TOTAL: 10 pts.... 210 passing yards.... 48% completions..... 3.7 rushing avg..... 4 turnovers...... and 18 of 27 drives ending in 3 & Out or turnover.  They literally made these Mountain West defenses look better than Alabama!!

That's how utterly terrible the offense was around Allen.  There's no twisting this into anything less, let alone into a positive.  It's absolutely destructive for a QB to be in, to the extent it's not even debatable......... yet despite this monstrosity, Wyoming's offense WITH Allen can actually put up [non-garbage time] point totals of 37 vs Central Michigan in a Bowl Game...... 42 vs New Mexico..... 28 vs Air Force..... 28 vs Utah St.... and 45 vs Texas St who are all better defenses than San Jose St?..... but you're gonna knock Allen for it?  Seriously?  

 

I appreciate the stats from the other QBs that you mentioned, but none of them came close to having 6 offensive starters that were either true freshman or 1st-year-starters...... plus another 2 starting linemen notably hindered by injury..... plus one of the worst rushing offenses in the country keeping them in constant predictable passing situations..... and they didn't operate a pro style system.  They don't take snaps under center, take rhythm based 3-5-7 drops, turn their back to the defense, and then whip their heads around to relocate the safety, the defensive shifts, and make all the adjustments to it and find the open receiver amidst real progressions within a split second of getting his head back around.  Those other guys all get simple reads..... and simple throws..... from the shotgun.... with their eyes ALWAYS looking at the defense.   Again, it's an entirely different animal my friend.

 

Th 3rd year Colorado St QB had the 32nd rushing offense (a 1400 yard rusher, twice as many rushing yards as Wyoming, and 1.8 better YPC).... and he also had Michael Gallup.   The 5th year Hawaii QB had a 1500 yard rusher (more than all of Wyoming combined) and a ground game averaging 1.6 more per carry than Wyoming.... and his 4 top targets were a 2 yr starter, 2 seniors, and a junior with a lot of game experience.  Again, you're being hypercritical of a guy in just his 2nd year.   

 

The Iowa game?  Of course he's holding the ball too long when his inexperienced receivers aren't getting open against upper level competition, and of course he's throwing a bunch of 10 and under passes; his HC said as much before the game b/c he knew his young inexperienced line wasn't going to be able to hold off the rush.  I already mentioned this to you.  The interceptions? Wyoming entered the game knowing the O-line would be a problem; the receivers weren't getting open in the passing game; Wyoming ground game average 2.0 YPC; and Iowa got up to a 21-3 lead midway through the 3rd qtr before the INTs happened.   

When you can't run the ball.... and cant get open in the passing game.... and find yourself down by 3 scores to a better team..... you can't just stop throwing the ball.  Of course Allen is going to have to start forcing throws, take risks, and try to play the role of the hero if his team is to have any chance.  

Again, go back and watch the 2nd half of the Oklahoma-UGA game, and do so with an unbiased eye, where Baker completed just 9 of 24 drop backs..... went 3 & Out on most of their first 8 drives or something like that.... and only scored 7 pts.  Notice all the pressure Baker faced.... the tighter windows.... all the 3rd and longs..... you know- the stuff he never faced to that extreme during the regular season. That same crippling situation is essentially what Allen faced ALL YEAR..... but apparently it's completely omissible when it happens to Mayfield, but Allen is a monumental failure when he performs to the same exact level.  

 

If you only counted 2 nice throws vs Iowa, then we're drastically off respectfully. 

 

Working chronologically:

This throw here is high level NFL caliber! Nobody else in this draft sticks an out throw like this from the far hash. Most anyone else attempts this and the corner gets there in time.  https://youtu.be/9pqRs8Z8eGA?t=20 

 

Here's another one.  You probably didn't list it b/c Allen makes it look so easy, yet it's another throw from the far hash to the opposite numbers, and he sticks this NFL throw again before anyone can arrive. 

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

Another cross-field throw from far hash to the numbers that he drills once again.  Show me how many times on the season that Lamar Jackson threw from the far hash to the opposite numbers or outside the numbers, let alone in 1 game.  Lotta QBs are uncomfortable with this NFL throw and struggle with it, yet Allen makes 'em with ease and impressive consistency and ball placement

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

3rd & 4.... pressure immediately in his face.... but converts the first down anyways.

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

Evades the immediate pressure.... has eyes downfield to make a play.... but no one uncovers for him so he wisely throws it away.

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

2nd & Long.  Allen knows he needs a big play and is within striking range. Gets pressured.... avoids it... steps up in pocket.... keeps eyes downfield [per usual].... and overthrows an inferior receiver working against one of the nation's best corners [Josh Jackson], putting the ball where the defense at least cant get it.  

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

You better have listed this play:

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

Under center..... back turned to the defense [true prostyle fashion]...... rolls out.... then AGAIN sticks the out throw beyond the numbers with absolute ease. Bet you didn't list this either with how easy Allen makes it look. 

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

2nd & 9.... under center.... TURNS HIS BACK TO THE DEFENSE for the prostyle play-action..... then gets his head back around to locate the safety AND identify the open guy...... and then STICKS ANOTHER OUT THROW 22 yards downfield that he makes look like 12 yards... before the safety can arrive [thanks to his velocity and quick diagnosis]. This is an NFL caliber throw right here.  Did you list it? 

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

Another snap from center..... another turned back to the defense..... roll out.... locate the safety..... drill ANOTHER outside-the-numbers throw on the move.  All he does is stick these NFL throws. Nobody in this draft does it better.  

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

Trailing 14-3... within scoring range.... NEEDS A BIG PLAY........ another under-center snap with back to the defense.... locate the safety.... and feed a ball 50 yards to CJ Johnson being smothered by Josh Jackson, where only his guy can get it if he actually had any ball skills. 

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

3rd & 3..... Sticks ANOTHER cross-field out throw from the far hash!! Are you kidding me, Josh?! You haven't missed one of these yet today! He's Cool Hand Luke on these NFL throws.

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

Another NFL caliber out throw..... but the receiver stays too far upfield out of his break and it caroms off him.

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

Under center.... back to defense..... gets head back around to locate the safety..... avoid the rush.... climb the pocket..... keep eyes downfield.... and drills a 50 yarder that his crappy receiver drops. Allen makes look like a 30 yard throw.

Josh Allen (Wyoming QB) vs Iowa - 2017

 

END: I totally get it MC. It's very frustrating when someone completely discounts what you see as valuable information. For example you ignored my comments about how the vast majority of his TD's came against three of the worst teams in the entire country, and he even put up trash numbers against such luminaries as Hawaii. It goes for pro-Allen and Allen dissenters alike. We have all brought up various arguments for why we don't think he's viable, and you disagree for equally valid reasons. That's why this debate is so fascinating, because both sides are making some very intriguing arguments, and we're all taking strong stances on why we think we're right.  

To that point you caught me in a mistake. I lazily scanned the Fresno St. stats instead of watching the game. Big mistake on my part, so thank you for pointing it out. As for the team strength we all get the point. I just don't think we agree with your assessment that it explains away all his issues. I'm not saying he has no talent, he clearly does. I just think he has a few fatal flaws that are going to sink him as a prospect, the biggest one being decision making.  

Ok going through your cutups:  

First two throws-I mean ok he threw an 8 yard out route. Good velocity and good placement, but you aren't winning Superbowls with that throw. In fact you basically made the point yourself. There's very few NFL QB's that can make that throw currently and they don't have to. Just because you can make a throw doesn't mean you need to. I saw Mallett make that throw so many times at Arkansas it would make your head spin. I'm not equating Mallett and Allen btw. Just pointing out that having the ability to make that throw does not equal success.  

Third throw-It's a curl route. If you can't throw a curl route you shouldn't even be starting in college. 

Fourth throw-That's one of the impressive ones I noted. The pressure never really gets close so it's not like he's staring down the gun and taking a hit, but good arm strength and accuracy nonetheless. Does an NFL defender pick that pass off? Maybe.  

Fifth play-Escapes pressure and doesn't screw up 

Sixth throw-Overthrows are good now? It's a tough throw, but there was room to drop it in there.  

Seventh play-Are you kidding me? He escapes pressure looking like Wentz then stupidly takes the sack anyways.  

Eighth throw-You mean how pro-style offenses are all under center like this is 1990? Nearly 2/3 of passes in the NFL are shotgun these days. Back turned to the defense is outdated and inefficient and less of a needed skill every year. If a QB doesn't know how to do that stuff then here's an idea: don't run it. Run what he's good at. Commenting on the throw, he rolls out to give him half a field and an easier read (because he can't read defenses) and he throws another short out route.  

Ninth throw-Yes I noted that one. It's pretty good. Probably his best throw of the game. 

Tenth throw-Identical to the eighth. 

Eleventh-Doesn't read anything, just stares down his receiver. Overthrow but not bad. Jackson made a good play. 

Twelfth-Another simple out throw, this one not even as far, and his ball placement isn't great. 

Thirteenth-Yet another short throw. You can blame this on the receiver, but it looks like more of his poor accuracy to me. 

Fourteenth-The terrible WR that was absolutely wide open... 

Fifteenth-Almost as wide open as the last play. 

Sixteenth-Umm, he throws a low, inaccurate pass to the flats?

 Seventeenth-Good throw. Hard to tell from that angle, but looks like the play may have been designed to pull the defender off on the short route. The way he pumps the ball looks like it was preset, like the spread bubble/seam concept Chip Kelly used to run, but instead of a bubble route they use an out. Still good throw. 

Eighteenth-Another wide open short out. 

Nineteenth-A curl against prevent. 

Twentieth-He runs ok

 Twentyfirst-Looks like he shorted it, but hard to tell. 

 

So yeah I count 3 good throws, all of which were outside, away from coverage. You notice how he never throws over the middle? It's because he can't. He can't read coverage, he can't fit it in tight windows. He throws hard to the outside, most of them short. I'm not going to bother making a cut ups of all his throws that don't hit 10 yards from anyone, the ones that sail 10 feet over the heads of receivers (even on passes as simple as swings by the RB), etc etc. There's plenty of that out there to see. And where's that 40% pressure? Against a top 25 team surely Wyoming must have struggled to block, and yet I didn't count all that many pressures.  

Don't get me wrong, I see what you're looking at. Big arm and he fits it into some good spots across the field. There's potential there. But look at the whole body of work. Look at all the terrible misfires. Look at the poor decision making. Allen claims its just a matter of fixing his footwork, but that's all fine and great when you're in shorts with no 300lb monsters trying to kill you. When he has to scan downfield with Khalil Mack bearing down on him, go through multiple progressions and fire a dart over the middle to a WR before he clears a linebacker, he's going to freeze like a deer in the headlights. Sure he'll make a few spectacular plays where he evades pressure Big Ben style and launches a frozen rope 28 yards downfield to a comeback route, but those handful of plays can't make up for the 1/10 passes he throws that end up getting intercepted. I see the potential, but I've never, not once seen a QB as raw as he is, with that bad of footwork and decision making, actually improve on those things to the point of being a star, or even average, QB. Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it likely? Not in the least. If someone wants to gamble on him in the 3rd round, cool I've got no problem with that. 2nd round? Little rich but hey knock your socks off. But top 5 overall? You've got to be kidding me. And no amount of long out routes is going to change my mind.

 

MC: real quick......  firstly, I'm not ignoring your mention of Allen's TDs coming against some of the worst teams in the country. I respect your opinion on that.   I'm simply not giving it as much weight when factoring in the fact that his surrounding offense was just as bad if not worse than those teams, as proven by their display against the FOURTH WORST scoring defense in the country (San Jose St).  Allen needed games against those lesser teams just to get his offense on a level playing field.  He didn't have a problem throwing TD's in 2016, his first true year in D1 ball I might add, when his receivers actually had some experience, ran better routes, gained better separation, and could actually uncover for Allen when plays broke down under pressure. I mean, it still wasn't anything remotely close to what Baker Mayfield had at Oklahoma, but it was at least better than the crapshow he had this year.   28 passing TDs in his first actual year in D1 ball after playing a season at a little community college? Are you kidding me?.... and on a team that was 2-10 the previous year but now suddenly found themselves 8-6 with this 1st year Josh Allen and nearly double the offensive scoring output?  Yup, nothing special here.  

All of those "simple out throws" as you like to minimize them as are actually from the far hash to the opposite numbers and beyond.  Those are 25-30 yard throws in horizontal distance alone.  Trying to sell them as "short throws" just b/c their vertical distance travels 12 yards or less is really trying to be deceptive here.   They are not short by any means, especially when those horizontal throws of that distance allow DBs to undercut the route if the ball isn't there quick enough, which is why you DONT see most college QBs attempting those throws.  They're some of the tougher throws to make in the NFL, yet you're panning them off as if they're no big whup, something anyone can do.   If those are "easy throws", then by all means, find me as many in 1 season from Lamar Jackson as Allen does in 1 game vs Iowa.   

Of course Allen won't be throwing over the middle if targets aren't getting open there.   His TE in that game was in his 1st ever career start after beginning his college career as a QB........ And it's a pro style offense remember, so there's no spreading out the field with multiple receivers constantly working the middle.  It has nothing to do with "because he cant".  Again, he takes snaps from under center, turns his back to the defense, then within a fraction of a second has to locate the safety and any defensive shifts, scan the field, and find the open progression..... and he's doing this as a SECOND YEAR guy.  Allen didn't have the luxury of sitting in shotgun all the time with 4+ receivers running around the field all the time, providing him separation by the barrel full, and a blocking unit to keep heavy pressure out of his forward face where he could comfortably sit back and dissect defenses between the hash marks.  All those out throws are much more a product of Wyoming's offensive passing system and  Allen's ability to actually HIT those throws than it is an inability on his part to complete stuff over the middle.  This is a guy who had 1 pick in 8 games vs the non big programs despite the garbage surrounding his offense; he's clearly capable of making sound decisions.... but I guess somehow the anti-Allen camp turns those sound decisions into an "inability to throw over the middle". 

Where are all the terrible misfires and poor decisions that you speak of?  NONE of it happened until late in the game when Allen was pressed into forcing throws when trailing 24-3 and with NO ONE ELSE in his offense helping him out.  Before that, he was either: sticking nearly every throw he made when there was enough separation to fit the ball in, throwing passes away to avoid an INT or sack, scrambling to make a play but his receivers were never uncovering, or putting the ball in a spot vs tight coverage where it's either caught or incomplete.  Showed me exactly why he should be the #1 pick.  Ryan Mallet is and was a joke, and I was on him as a mid round guy when people were propping him up as a top 15 pick.  Josh Allen isn't remotely close to Ryan Mallett. That's a terrible comparison for anyone to make it. 

 

END: I literally specified I was NOT comparing Allen to Mallett. Merely some of the throws they are capable of making are similar. Being capable of making certain throws does not automatically make you a star in waiting.  

And when I say they are short passes I clearly am talking about the verticality. I noted that they were long throws in distance traveled. However, long horizontal throws are not equivalent to long verucally. Anyone with a big arm can turn and laser a pass to the sideline. Credit to him he got it where it needed to go on those passes, but you are not winning games throwing 10 yard outs. Period. He’s going to have to work the middle of the field because NFL teams will squat on those outside routes until he proves he can do something else. Which I don’t believe he can. I see no evidence of it. Every pass he threw in that game was outside, avoiding congestion. Blame it on his receivers if you want, but I’m tired of hearing excuses for the guy.  

Also it is true most of his ugly passes in the Iowa game were late (most not all), but there’s a plethora of godawful passes in other games against weaker competition that he threw while winning. 

 

MC: By the way, Josh Allen's tape against an Iowa defense that completely has his offense outmatched, is twice as good as Baker's against Georgia.  Notably more NFL caliber throws for Allen.  Better & cooler under pressure is Allen, escapes the pressure better, and keeps his eyes downfield under pressure better....... And even though Allen's offense is outmatched most of the game and his team never stands a chance, it's not until the end of the game when TRAILING BY 3 SCORES that you actually see Josh making bad decisions, panicking, and forcing poor throws, unlike Baker who seems to do so in this game anytime he doesn't have an easy throw or a clean pocket, regardless of the scoreboard.  

Opposite of Allen, Baker gets everything from the shotgun, with the field SPREAD OUT and loaded with premium weapons (never having to turn his back to the defense and then re-locate the safeties & defensive shifts and pick up his receivers all within a fraction of a second). He's afforded about a dozen completions that shouldn't even count toward completion%..... and has a first half where he has ALL DAMN DAY to throw and receivers that are running wide open, yet it's still mostly easy completions for Baker, far far easier than the stuff Allen is throwing.   Baker then misses most of his NFL caliber throws or chucks INTs on them..... or gets bailed out by receivers who actually MAKE plays with the ball in the air. 

Baker attempts ONE OUT-THROW all game, and it's thrown from the NEAR hash (shown in the clip below)....... But yeah- somehow all the opposite-field throws made from the far hash to outside the numbers, on a deeper drop by Allen, are somehow "short throws". :confused:  

The majority of Baker's completions in this game were from play design, easy short throws in front of him to WIDE OPEN targets,  or dump-offs to the back, whereas the majority of Allen's completions were from real NFL throws, mostly traveling 30+ yards total air distance (compared to the massive slew of 15 yards and less for Baker).  I can tell you as an ex QB that those throws in front of you, between the hash marks, are infinitely EASIER to make than those long out-throws to the boundary.  You're condemning the heck out of Allen for not attempting those easy throws over the middle, yet completely omitting Baker not attempting the difficult NFL ones to the outside that he'll HAVE to make in the pros, but it's somehow Allen who will have the greater obstacle to overcome? 

Baker Mayfield (QB #6) vs Georgia - 2018 Rose Bowl

 

MC: my bad then about misreading the Mallett thing.  

Those "out throws" that you downplay are the bread and butter of the passing game.  What do you think happens if a pro QB can't stick those throws?    It can virtually ruin a passing game when corners don't have to worry about defending that out throw and can instead sit on the in cuts on the short drops (which they're keying on)..... or the vertical stuff on the deeper drops (which they'll again be keying on).  They can cheat and play inside leverage to take away everything working to the inside.   Allen's ability to stick those throws is what keeps corners honest and allows you to work the deep ball or play-action over the top.... or the slants and posts and deep digs etc. It's a pretty big deal.

 

END: This has been one hell of a debate. Hope everyone else is enjoying it! I can just hear RC thinking “this is great!” and Xavier thinks it’s a complete waste of time. Personally I think the Great Josh Allen Debate of 2018 is going to be a fascinating thing to watch play out over the next few years. I’m certainly hearing some very interesting things that are making me think deeply on everything I think I know about scouting. I love hearing different opinions because it helps me get out of the echo chamber and consider things from a different perspective. I can’t remember who said it, Ray Dalio or Charlie Munger maybe, but “invert, invert, invert.” Or something to that effect. Anyways, it’s been a pleasure MC. Perhaps RC can find something else for us to debate Bayless and Stephen A. style. Feel like starting our own network RC? ;)

 

RC: "This is great" 

This is my last Josh Allen typing on this because I'm 'Final Answer' conviction...

This was literally my three steps of following along MC's Allen latest pitch...

a) I saw how long it was and thought...I don't have time. Then I thought -- I'll check it out in case I missed something and so much effort put in. I happened to be at the very end of it so I clicked on the very last one randomly -- the one that makes the pitch of his great arm and the dropped pass. The tape is Allen throwing to the ankles of a receiver who can't pick it out of the ground...so that's a great throw and drop? Not to me.

Then I made the mistake of letting the tape run one more play...the next play Allen throws a screen pass right to a defender for a dumb pick. None of this convinced me of anything more than what I already suspect -- Allen has a great arm and is bad at QBing. 

b) I wanted to be fair and not judge it all by one play, so I went to the top and watched plays #1-2. The first pass, statue head staring down a receiver and making a timing throw a hundred guys could make.

c) I watched the 2nd pass and same thing -- fixed on his receiver before the snap and route, watches him all the way and then fires. I got 25-50 guys who can do that on the board for this draft.

I just stopped after that. If strong arm passes from a QB staring down a receiver who got open and also throwing one nicely to a receivers ankles are supposed to convince me that a 55% passer is actually a 65% passer in the pros...it didn't. I already knew he had a strong arm. I already knew he struggles reading defenses and throwing with accuracy under any duress. This tape just locked me in more on my position.

Hey, I love the effort from you MC! You will win the gold star award if he hits it big. I will tear my clothes, put on sackcloth and dump ashes on my head if I'm wrong.  

This really is great!

 

This whole conversation feels like this in a 2-minute summary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AfLtst6mC0Q

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

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