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Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, NFL Draft Day Two (4/27/2019)

Date:
April 27, 2019

Dynasty-Fantasy Football Offseason Notes, Rumors, NFL Draft Day Two (4/27/2019)

Throughout April and into the summer, we’ll be dropping Dynasty-Fantasy notes every day or two as we have some things of interest, rumors, etc., to talk about.

*Writing them on the fly, forgive any errors…

By federal law, if you’re a professional football analyst, you have to do a ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ piece after each round of the draft…even though it’s illogical after one round, or even after Saturday because it then says the UDFA signings are meaningless (they are to the NFL analysts who started losing track of who players were around pick 20-25 of the 1st-round). However, it’s fun…and it’s the law…

…you think this is bad…wait until you see the illustrious, court mandated football analyst ‘draft grades’ on Monday where every team is magically between an ‘A’ and ‘C’. Ummm, that’s really not how grades work.

I just saw an NFL.com article on draft grades where the writer defends the importance/clarity of giving draft grades at this stage (after day two). I didn’t read anything beyond the lead-in, I just looked at his grades to see if it proved my point. His grades in order of how he gives by team/division: A, A, A, A, A, B+, A-, A-, C, A, A-, A, A, B+, B+, B+, A, B, A, A-, A, B, A, A, B+, A, C+, B-, A, B+, A, B+.

Can anyone explain how this type of grading is even logical?

Now, the biggest winners and losers from two days of the draft…

WINNER: The New England Patriots

The best NFL team/franchise/QB/coach is now killing the draft…which has been an area they’ve struggled in prior. Belichick has been a ‘random’ drafter. His smartest attribute being not getting suckered into higher draft picks. Now, he’s actually nailing it with every pick (so far).

The best coach who is the best in-season personnel guy has now hired someone or a firm to do the drafting or something – because now they are killing it. We might as well not even play the 2019 season. I guess we do just to see if Brady gets hurt and whether BB could overcome that. I'm sure he would.

Can I ask… If the most successful football mind to ever be in the sport, Bill Belichick, wants nothing to do with top 10-20-25 draft picks – why does every team get an ‘A’ for what they’ve done in the draft, per analysts? Should having high picks be an automatic downgrade/sign of trouble/sign of non-Belichickian ways?

LOSER: The NFL Draft Mindset…

In an era of modern living where everything is constantly being studied and improved, the way teams draft…their strategies, their reaches, their poor economic valuations of picks/positions, their natural attraction to all things ‘Clemson’ and ‘Alabama’ – 31 other teams are between ‘random’ and ‘bad’ at this process. This assessment/critique coming from a guy who has studied this for a decade…and from a decade of interpreting their draft results that back me up. If drafting were a figured-out science on the NFL, a team would have great drafts every year, year-in-and-put…instead of it always being random events one year to the next.

The NFL Draft ‘TV Show’ gets higher and higher ratings and better production value and yet only one team now seems to know what they’re doing in the actual event themselves – the Patriots…shocker.

See what Jacksonville did with their last pick on day two of the draft…and you tell me these people know what they’re doing. The #98 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft should have its own ESPN 30-for-30 done on it in the future…but doubtful ESPN, as we know it, will still exist down the road.

LOSER: Baltimore Ravens

The have taken/reached for three bad prospects so far…three guys with a lot of buzz/hype that sucker teams every year. They took two measured-fast WRs with little ‘real’ game…for a team with a QB who struggles throwing the ball.

I guess Ozzie Newsome mattered.

LOSER: Chicago Bears

They move up to take their one pick, so far, a 3rd-rounder – RB David Montgomery?

In two years, you won’t even remember what team he’s on or that he was in this draft. One of the most overrated running back prospects in this draft. He can catch OK, but so could John Kelly…and so can a lot of RB prospects in this draft, they just didn’t get the passing volume within their offense to show it (typical college offenses). The athleticism and quickness isn’t there with Montgomery. He’s not shifty…or, he is when he has wide open space with a head of steam. Good luck finding that with his 4.6+ 40-time speed and 2.7+ 20-yard times. Remarkable…

Winners’ = Tarik Cohen and Mike Davis.

LOSER: Denver Broncos

They have a ‘who’s who’ of great, young offensive weapons – perhaps, the best collection of young skill position talent in the NFL…and no QB to make them hum.

Drafting Drew Lock means you get 1-2 years of Joe Flacco declines rolling into 1-2 years of Drew Lock failure. So close to greatness…but if you don’t have the QB the rest doesn’t matter.

LOSER: Oakland Raiders

All that ‘draft capital’ to rebuild and they have had a terrible draft so far – good/decent/useful players, but that’s not what you want with three #1 picks. You can’t draft mediocre RBs and good safeties in the 1st-round, it’s bad business – but that’s exactly what Oakland did. What a mess.

LOSER: Todd Gurley (and the Rams)

Something is very wrong. The way Gurley ended 2018-19 season, and now the Rams taking Darrell Henderson after they paid a lot of money to keep Malcom Brown. Gurley is falling out of the top 12 overall fantasy players for sure, for redrafts/dynasty startups.

The Rams poured a bunch of money into a running back (Gurley), always bad business economically…now they’re stuck. Salary cap issues are right around the corner. The window is closing fast, and Gurley’s contract might have been the death blow to take down the Patriots – a move (overpaying Gurley) that’s impact isn’t fully realized until a few years from now.

Yes, you read that right…one team a ‘winner’ and a bunch of ‘losers’. And I had to limit my loser list because I had so many to pick from – sorry Jets, Dolphins, etc.

WINNER = The NFL Network

The Network added Fox’s Joel Klatt to their draft coverage and he’s by far the best voice in college football. I don’t know who is second…everyone else is a negative/detraction in football analysis/coverage.

Now, if someone would tell the Network that Steve Mariucci and Michael Irvin are like taking payroll money and setting it ablaze…

LOSER = ESPN

I assume there will be college classes in the future that study how ESPN turned itself from the dominant force in all-things sports that many of us grew up with, one of Disney’s most profitable business units…and in about a decade became the ‘Sears’ of sports coverage…a business losing subscribers and viewers in droves. A business that took its most successful show (Mike & Mike), broke up the two hosts to give them their own shows…on/competing at the same time and both abject failures.

In draft coverage, Rich Eisen is so superior a general host to Trey Wingo it’s not even worth discussing. Mel Kiper has gone the way of the dinosaurs…I cannot believe his work is pay-for in the ‘ESPN insider’ network. More to the point, I cannot believe people pay for ESPN insider access.

Many years ago, I used to feel like making fun of ESPN would hurt any shot at working for them – because it was the big, and only, hope for a sports writer/analyst, etc. Now, I realize they probably won’t be a thing in a few more years…so, it doesn’t matter what I say. I don’t know who will buy them/absorb them, but once Amazon gets into sports deeper…it’s over. Fox is already delivering body blows as it is.

LOSER = KFC

I cannot take one more viewing of the Col. Sanders guy dirty dancing with that bottle of syrup. I think I saw that commercial about a thousand times during draft coverage. Enough already. Get another commercial to play. How is this making me want to eat Chicken and Waffles...which are delicious? You;ve made me have negative reactions to soemth

-- I’ll be analyzing all of the draft affects in the days to come…draft grades for teams, running computer simulated seasons for handicapping, updating our Dynasty and Best Ball rankings, producing the top 300+ Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings – all that to come in the next week(s).  

Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings start Monday and add/change all week with UDFAs, etc. (another update to my pre-Draft board sometime today).

Dynasty and Best Ball will be updated sometime next week. I’ll let you know ahead. IDP rankings (300 IDPs, 100 each position group) debut next week as well.

-- Draft coverage today/night? I’m sitting this one out. I have an urgent family event, so it’s the first day three of the draft I’ve missed in many years…so, no live streaming video or written stream. It will probably be a good mental health day.

I’ll comment on the highlights of day three/the whole draft Sunday and beyond. I might make some comments later tonight, but definitely Sunday and next week is a blizzard of draft and fantasy analysis from the NFL Draft.

My day three of the draft will be like a normal football fan – don’t care, won’t watch much, and I’ll look at who went where later today. It’s OK, we can all skip it – I’ll interpret it all ahead.

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-- College Football Metrics is getting into high gear as the non-QB scouting reports begin and the deeper analysis for Dynasty Rookie Drafts unfurls. We’ll statistically scout/grade 600+ prospects, deeper study 100+ prospects pre- and post-draft with detailed scouting reports and rank the top 200+ Dynasty Rookie Draft prospects (including IDP) every week throughout the offseason. See our home page for details on our various subscriptions.

-- The debut season of our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball is now available – Dynasty rankings for various scoring positions in downloadable/editable spreadsheet format for your use. Best Ball rankings for 2019 coming in March. Offseason strategy reports posting weekly…trade for/away, sleepers, deep sleepers, draft strategies, mock drafts, etc.

-- The 2019 Annual Fantasy Football Metrics Draft Guide will be available in June 2019 – the 2019 player scoring projections, rankings, special reports, commentary on 600+ players, IDP rankings…all updated daily/weekly throughout the offseason right

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>