IDP analyst JWolfe and I are looking at some of the top defensive prospects for the upcoming NFL Draft and having an informal scouting chat on what we see. We will post the transcripts as we complete them. Please forgive typos, etc. — it’s just an informal discussion about what we are seeing on tape, etc.
Myles Garrett chat (Week of 1/10/2017)
RC: ESPN’s tied for #1 overall prospect (with Fournette). CBS’s #2 overall (behind Allen).
Solid career, not spectacular or mind-blowing.
Just 33 tackles in 2016, 18 solos with 8.5 sacks…pretty flimsy.
Considering had had an 8 tackle (7 solo) with 4.5 sack game against Texas-San-Antonio…he averaged 2.8 tackles, 1.2 solo tackles per game in all his other games…and just 4.0 sacks in 9 games last season.
This is the #1 overall pick potentially?
I haven’t looked at any 2016 tape yet, but watched him from 2015 last summer to do a quick scouting analysis…and I was not impressed.
The numbers are weak. My first impression of tape was weak. I’m getting ready to go into my 2016 studies with a negative attitude. I feel like this is a Robert Nkemdiche SEC con job…good athlete who is a no-show, but had a good game against Alabama so some dumb team will open the bank vault.
What’s your first impression of Garrett?
JWolfe: I was fully blinded by his lack of production but have opened my mind to him being IDP useful right away with the assumption he ends up in Cleveland with the #1 pick seeing that Greg “Kill the head and the body will die” Williams is now running the show in Cleveland meaning he will be classified as a 4-3 DE in that scenario. I can see the athleticism obviously and the length but to me he is Mario Williams 2,0, a guy who will test fantastic but won’t hold up over the long haul especially in run support in that division 6 games a year.
My first impressions in very limited glimpses of Garrett are definitely biased negatively. Hearing rumblings last month how much the Browns love him was my first strike. Second was the lack of statistical output. In 8 games versus Power 5 conference teams this year, he posted less than 3 tackles and 1/2 a sack per game (23 tackles and 4 sacks). Looking back to 2015, flimsy numbers as well considering his pedigree and draft status versus Power 5 teams (9 games with 8 sacks) and 2014 was even worse as a freshman only 3 of 11 total sacks coming in 7 Power 5 games. He did dominate Lamar/Rice/SMU/Louisiana Monroe to the tune of 8 sacks which seems to be a career pattern.
The SEC isn’t nearly as dominant as it was 4-5 years ago, leaving me to question how this kid is going to consistently beat NFL tackles if he isn’t dominating at that level. I do think just because of his speed and the immediate playing time and lack of talent in Cleveland or whatever team lands him, he will get pushed and be IDP worthy but honestly prefer Joey Bosa over him. He does have athleticism and looks the part with his size/strength/length but I think is more of an athlete than a football player and ESPN just found a guy who is an ok talent in the SEC who looks the part and became their guy.
If he gets coached up and develops some better leverage and learns to use his hands and length for extension he could end up being a solid player but to me when comparing him to other guys in this class like Jonathan Allen it’s not even close for me. Without really watching much college football I am going to try to evaluate with a clear slate but am in the same boat as you and not getting good first impressions. Character wise he seems to be a decent kid from what little I researched and read on him, so at least worst case scenario you aren’t getting Manizel 2.0 in the locker room or a Sheldon Richardson type distraction.
RC: Let’s watch these two games of his from 2016 and see what things jump to mind.
We can note the time in the video if there’s something specific to look at.
https://youtu.be/W8qmOAe_QK0 = Alabama (2016)
https://youtu.be/ixuDsDzDkSE = LSU (2016)
RC: Watched the Alabama tape today.
My first thought afterwards was ‘Barkevious Mingo’.
Garrett may be the fastest DE I’ve ever seen…counterbalanced by the fact that he doesn’t do anything.
#74 Cam Robinson the LT for Alabama attracted more of my attention as who deserved the #1 pick more.
Garrett is the classic Mario Williams – going after the backfield and nothing else matters. He blocked out of plays and out of position often.
He’s fast so he can get to plays if left unblocked or makes a nice move…but he was mostly a no-show in games on the stat sheet. His ability…he should have had 20+ TFLs and 12+ sacks.
He got about 30-50% of all his activity for 2016 versus Texas San Antonio.
Great athlete. Should be drafted high because of potential, but I’m not taking him…there has to be better players to take in the top 10.
Garrett does too much walking around on the field for my taste.
In this game…3.5 TFLs…two of them late when the game was out of hand and run blitzed on known running plays.
He had one TFL on an unblocked straight shot and his other TFL was him stringing out a QB run and chasing the QB out of bounds.
The athleticism is breathtaking…only you see it once every 10-20 plays, maybe.
JWolfe: My first three thoughts after watching both games are that I am 99% sure Garrett will not be an elite player. I am thinking Mario Williams who had all the measurable and tools and was somewhat productive but never lived up to the total package.
The biggest red flag I see is the lack of hustle. It does seem that likely wisely Alabama tended to run opposite of Garrett but there was little backside pursuit and hustle. With his size and reach it’s quite possible he could be tracking some of these plays down from the back side but he seems to stand watch and halfheartedly jog towards the action at end of plays. He is almost too fast I think and just tries to get straight up-field and there were multiple examples of Alabama knowing this and it created huge lanes in the run game. The play at the 9:50 marker really sticks out as a guy who just isn’t trying.
My next red flag was the inability/lack of Football IQ on his angles. I can count on multiple times where Garrett simply just overran the play. His angles are definitely lacking and it shows in his ability to keep contain on run support and maintain his pass rush lanes. The only time he makes any plays was on two read option plays where the Alabama Freshman QB makes the wrong read and should have kept the ball where he was unblocked and only one play where he beats any blocker and makes a play. One was a jaw dropper that gives you pause to reconsider that if everything clicks he could be the next Von Miller/Khalil Mack type pass rusher. At the 10:20 mark., the play was designed to make Garrett the read for a jet sweep qb read triple option. He comes off the ball so quickly he literally single handedly blows the entire play up by beating the motion wr just due to his quickness which I don’t think I have ever seen.
For someone with freak athlete measurables, it’s a huge red flag he had no real splash/disruptive plays other than one TFL. If I am a GM taking a pass rusher with a top 3 pick, I want a guy who is hitting the qb 5-6 times a guys or at least swatting passes away a la JJ Watt. I didn’t see any real resemblance of pass rush moves or ability to shed blocks. That to an extent can be coached up but it’s concerning to me that such a highly touted prospect continues to stay blocked. I am interested to see what the consensus was on #74 for Alabama as I saw he turned pro early. To me he’s a better pro prospect than Garrett by far and won the matchup handily.
RC: Watched the LSU game.
Garrett is perplexing. I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone so fast off the edge…and do so little with it. He is blocked/handled one-on-one by the LT with somewhat of ease. The only time I see him ever make a play is when protection broke and he got a free ride to the backfield.
When he is on the move he’s amazing…except he stands around watching most of the game. I never see him make plays on the back-end, where he chases someone down as they are running up the middle or racing after a screen pass has successfully developed and Garrett comes racing in and blasts people from behind. I NEVER see it.
I do see him standing around watching a lot after his initial surge is stopped.
If he gave 100%…he’d make 5+ tackles a game and have 20+ TFLs in a season with 10.0 sacks. He should be unstoppable, but I think (at this stage) he’s a more athletic version of Joey Bosa…once a QB is flushed he’s fast enough to chase them down for the sack.
At their best, Garrett is way better than Bosa or even Vic Beasley. But I don’t see Garrett at his best that often.
JWolfe: I just watched both games back to back and wrote most of my notes for both games and they seem to be the same but the lack of hustle is way more noticeable in the LSU game. I don’t think he’s draft eligible but the #5 RB Guice from LSU is the real deal holy moly!
Again Garrett doesn’t do a whole lot to convince me he’s not just a great athlete who looks the part but doesn’t do much. He has a basketball background and it leads me to wonder if he’s one of those guys who drifted to football later in life for the potential pay day. I think he has a much better shot playing as a standup 3-4 LB rather than a 4-3 DE although his IDP value is much higher as a 4-3 DE because of the scarcity.
I think landing spot will make all the difference in the world for Garrett. First is the defense and coordinator/position coach. If he ends up in a scheme where he is asked to hold contain then he will be run at constantly. I personally almost like what I have seen from him as an interior rusher and wonder what he would look like as a 3-4 DE although I don’t think its feasible.
I only noticed two plays by Garrett again. I just don’t see him as a guy who can beat a blocker consistently and the LSU LT isn’t close to the caliber of the Alabama kid. Garrett seriously should consider doing some MMA or Karate because he does next to nothing with his hands and needs to get separation to take advantage of his length and speed/athleticism.