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2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft Re-do in 2014 (The 'New' Top-100 + Won't Touch Prospects)

Air Date:
July 21, 2014

OK, here we go...some ground rules to following the poetic mess below:

 -- I took our final 8.0 Version of last year's Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings, and left all the commentary exactly as it was so you can see what we said last year at this same time. The new commentary is highlighted/contained within the light-blue areas. Everything underneath the light-blue area for a top-50 player was commentary and rankings we ended with in the 2013 preseason...exactly as they were last year.

 -- We have new commentary on the 'new' top-50 players. Prospects 51-100 are just listed by name, with last years final rank (or non-rank) showing.

 -- Beneath all of this are the players we said last year we wouldn't touch (highly thought of prospects), with new comments. One or two 'won't touch' guys are in the top-100 now...we will 'touch' them today!

 -- Obviously, everyone's scoring system and leagues settings are different. This is assuming all player's scoring (including IDP) is balanced...all players are more 'equal' in scoring ability/status in the utopian FF scenario.

Here you go, re-doing the 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft before the 2014 preseason...

 

 

#1-in a 2RB/2WR PPR) RB Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh------------------------------

2014: We start where we began with our 1.0 version ranking in 2013...with Le'Veon Bell at #1. You'll notice (below) he wound up #5 by the end of the preseason, but initially he was our #1. The Lisfranc scared me to death...enough to drop him down a little. RBs like this do not grow on trees. He's bigger than Eddie Lacy, but faster, and far more agile...and great in the passing game. He is the new-age, complete Fantasy Football RB with mega-size and mega-athleticism for the size.

I like Bell more than Latavius Murray, despite Murray's talent ranking higher in our computer scouting system. Murray's surrounding situation is worse (Murray may not see carries in OAK until 2015). Murray has more of a noted injury bug. Pittsburgh is a more stable environment than Oakland.

I'm a touch worried about LeGarrette Blount taking short TDs from Bell, but that's a 2014 issue. Long-term, Bell is the best RB prospect in this class. The Lisfranc became a shocking non-issue (so far).

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#5) RB Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh

8/22/13 = The Lisfranc/maybe Lisfranc injury potentially turns his entire FF 2013 into a wasted opportunity, and it may be something that lingers with him longer term. It wasn't that Bell was "special" for FF 2013, as much as he was really good in a great FF situation. Now he is a bit tainted in a world where mediocre/good RBs grow on trees. If he falls behind this year, he will be available at a growing discount every week of the 2013 season if you want to acquire him...no need to chase highly in a rookie draft now.

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Org. Comments: No RB in this draft enters a better situation than Bell. He was our #2 rated RB in this class, and an argument can certainly be made that he is the best in the class. He has the size-speed-power and pedigree to be a great NFL RB...and most importantly he has no real roster threat at this stage.

Isaac Redman is not a real NFL RB. Jonathan Dwyer is OK, but he is not in Bell's class. Baron Batch is useful, with some upside, but is smaller and not at all as gifted as Bell. If Bell were drafted by the Chiefs, he'd be maybe in the top 5-10 for a Dynasty Rookie Draft, but on the Steelers -- this is a marriage made in heaven.

I would expect to see 1,200+ yards and 10+ TDs easily with Bell in 2013, unless the Steelers poach a veteran RB at some point. I would think if they were going veteran, they would have done it by now. At this stage, it's full steam ahead with Bell.

 

 

 

 

#1-in a 3WR league, and/or KR scoring matters) WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota--------------

2014: If you keep up with our articles at Fantasy Football Metrics.com, then you know the revelation we had here in mid-July 2014. I implore you to go read those articles on Cordarrelle Patterson because if you agree with the assessment, then you could be staring at the new #1 WR for Fantasy Football...and it's not because he is the best WR talent in the NFL, he's not even a top 10-20 WR talent. 

This has to do with his ability as a runner/rusher of the ball, which is off the charts...and we totally dismissed it in our scouting models because who cares about a random gimmick play working? Except for Patterson makes the gimmick work in a freakish manner. There is much more to consider here with Patterson. Please read our detailed case on FFM.

 

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2013:

#14) WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota

We're not fans of Patterson -- overrated speed/agility/athleticism, and showed mostly poor results in college against SEC competition. He beat up on a couple patsies in 2012, and did mostly nothing when it mattered. We think he is a very overrated WR, with a high bust probability -- like a Michael Floyd and Jonathan Baldwin before him (late 1st-round, troubled WRs).

Best case, he flops around year-one, and maybe into year-two he becomes something -- why waste a pick this high for something that will be on sale from 50% off six months from now?

Patterson has shown flashes of something, so at a certain point the dice should be rolled. He is likely off the board within the first five picks, and I'm not willing to pay that price...unless it is to flip him.

Our computer did not like A.J. Green in 2011, as much as everyone else because he had signs of a "B-/C+" physique, and had "B+" college performance. We thought B-/C+ for the pros, not the A+ everyone else saw (we can debate what he really is later). Patterson is not like that -- I'm not saying this is a "B" player with "A" hype. The computer thinks this is a "C" player with a "D" head masquerading as an "A". It's bad Michael Floyd karma. I only make this pick if the alternatives that I want are available later, and/or I plan to flip him quick before he winds up with a DUI and destroys his value (like Justin Blackmon last year...and now again this year).

If you aren't in love with the alternatives at picks #3-5, and you decided to select Patterson at #3-4-5 to flip him...there is logic there. However, Patterson is not as "white hot" as Tavon Austin is right now. This "flip" theory may not be as simple/juicy as the Austin one.

 

 

 

 

 

#1-in a 2RB/2WR non-PPR) RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay------------------------------

2014: In a non-PPR, you could argue Eddie Lacy as the #1 Dynasty Rookie from the 2013 class. Throw in the likely permanent loss of Johnathan Franklin, and Lacy has no real threat on the depth chart. Even if Lacy drags a little bit on yardage production, he's such a mass of humanity for short TDs...he'll always have some level of FF-value (just like I assumed with Trent Richardson).

Why Lacy ahead of Montee Ball? Lacy has the advantage of working with Aaron Rodgers the next several years. Ball might have just one year with Peyton Manning.

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2013:

#4) RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay

8/22/13 = Moving up by default. Le'Veon Bell down. Montee Ball is showing to be more than human. This 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft really is weak.

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Org. Comments: In a battle of Packers rookie RBs -- the winner will be Lacy. He is the far superior physical construct for the NFL, over Johnathan Franklin. At minimum, Lacy will score 10+ TD a season even if he is a 9-12 carry a game RB, and not in on 3rd-down a bunch.

Aaron Rodgers provides a lot of scoring opportunity, and Lacy will be a beneficiary. Without Franklin, Lacy would be everyone's #1 pick with a bullet...but there is fear of Franklin. I'm not sure we should fear Franklin that much. Lacy makes much more sense as "the guy" at 230+ pounds, than Franklin does at 200+ pounds. I'm more apt to ignore Franklin, and Cedric Benson (who will likely not return), and go ahead with Lacy under a main-carry RB assumption. I do still have an irrational fear of Alex Green, however.

We're not ga-ga over Lacy as a talent, but he is good, and this is a potentially great situation.

 

 

 

 

#4) LB Paul Worrilow, Atlanta------------------------------

2014: I love how Paul Worrilow still gets no love in the mainstream. You see, guys like Worrilow and Nick Folesweren't supposed to happen per the football intelligentsia. So their radical success is still seen with a furrowed brow, a distrust. Worrilow stepped in cold, partially into the 2013 season, as an undrafted free agent and immediately posted 19 tackles per game in back-to-back games.

He averaged 9.3 tackles per game in his final six starts after a blistering 18.0 per game in his first three starts (Weeks 9-10-11). I wonder what he'll do when he gets a full off-season working with the first-team defense? If your FF-league values tackles in the scoring system...Worrilow is arguably the #1 Dynasty prospect from this class. How amazing is that?

No one, and I mean no one saw this coming...except us. You'll see he wound up our #23 Dynasty Rookie prospect in the 2013 preseason. He was in no one's top 100-200+ this time last season. America, you're welcome.

Don't worry we screwed up a couple from 2013 to bring us back down to earth, but this was a win that got us pretty solid acclaim...even in NFL circles.

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2013:

#23) ILB/OLB Paul Worrilow, Atlanta (+5 spots)

8/13/13 = Only Vance McDonald was more impressive in his preseason debut than Worrilow...and that claim is debatable. Worrilow had 12 tackles against the Bengals, 10 of them solo with one TFL. He got those tackles early...and often. He was a machine, all over the field. An All-Pro, double-digit tackles per year guy could be lurking here.

The prescient words of written in all of 2013 may be the paragraph below, my original comment post-NFL Draft...

-----------------------

Your first reaction is a logical one -- why would I care about a LB that 32 other teams in the NFL didn't draft? Salient point. But consider this point for a moment (if you play in 32 team, deep dynasty leagues) -- Worrilow has characteristics in common with some of the all-time LB greats in our database. His measurables make him one of the best LB prospects in the draft. He had good-great performance at D2 Delaware. This is a lottery ticket that the computer found a poor man's Luke Kuechly for the price of a few pennies in a Dynasty Rookie Draft. *Refer back to our full scouting report on CFM to re-acquaint.

 

 

 

 

 

#5) LB Jamie Collins, New England------------------------------

2013:

2014: We should have ranked him higher last year. My fear was he would not see more meaningful playing time until later 2014. However, he made an impact on people late in the 2013 season, and he's a 'hot' commodity now. I've said it a number of times: He is a Calvin Johnson among defensive prospects from this class. How he would be used was my biggest question mark, but it looks like a roaming LB, who goes all over...and that's perfect.

The big FF-worry here: He might be so good, and drop into pass coverage a little too often...and thus QBs throw away from him/Collins takes the TE out of the play with Spiderman coverage. That's awesome for the NFL, but worrisome that he will go a lot of plays with no tackle or PD attempt for FF-output.

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#21) OLB Jamie Collins, New England

8/13/13 = Collins was one of the highest rated players we had in the 2012 NFL Draft, but we weren't sure how fast he would become a starter. Based on his Week-1 performance, he may be starting opening day. Collins will get tackles, sacks, and PDs for you...he's a machine.

-------------

Collins could have very interesting defensive statistical output right away in the NFL. Collins is one of the highest rated players we had in this draft (regardless of position). Collins is a great tackler, and a great athlete. He has played LB, rush-end, and Safety in college -- and can do a little of that in the NFL as well. He can push 100+ tackles and throw in some INTs and sacks to go with that. He is a unique athlete who may shock a lot of people with the statistical array he produces.

 

 

 

 

 

#6) RB Montee Ball, Denver------------------------------

2014: It's always good to be a team's clear-cut #1 RB, especially when that team is headed up by Peyton Manning. I would only caution two things here: (1) Peyton Manning might have one good year left...and we all agree Peyton 'makes' these players better than they are for FF. (2) Montee Ball isn't that special, he's just 'good'. With Peyton, he can be great. Without Peyton...he may get boring quickly.

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2013:

#6) RB Montee Ball, Denver

7/19/13 = We are getting more and more concerned that Montee Ball is just another Wisconsin-system pushed RB prospects. As we continue to look at it -- the more statistical odds are popping up to show that a "bust" could be on the table. It's a low percentage, but it is rising. I'm pro-Ball from what I have seen visually, but little bits of doubt are creeping on from the computer analysis.

 

5/17/13 = We're moving Ball ahead of Lacy, but it's very debatable. The 2013 schedule favors Denver -- we feel it is the best schedule of run-defenses for any RB to face in 2013. Whereas Lacy has a tougher schedule, and a Week-4 BYE (which we hate).

The more we look at it; the 2013 FF-output will be close between Lacy-Ball, but will likely shift to favor Ball from 2014+ on...as Denver washes through the other veteran RBs (on age and contract). You could argue either way on them, but today we shift Ball slightly ahead in the big picture.

===========================

Original comments: The situation is more crowded in Denver with McGahee-Moreno-Hillman (and Fannin), but McGahee may be done, Moreno could be gone, and Hillman is a 3rd-down RB at best. Ball could be what Moreno was at the end of last year...whoever gets the Broncos job is a 1,200+ yard rusher with 10+ TDs in-waiting. Ball has a good chance to be that guy...unless Denver goes RBBC.

It's a murky situation, and the NFL keeps shifting to RBBCs, so not sure Ball is the next Alfred Morris-type producer, but there is a chance. If not 2013, then very good odds in 2014.

 

 

 

 

#7) TE Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati------------------------------

2014: I'm not crushed that Eifert was our #1 Dynasty Rookie Draft prospect in 2014, and didn't do squat in 2013, for the most part. Typically, TEs start out a little slower in the NFL. My main concern is that Eifert did not progress withAndy Dalton as 2013 went on. Initially, to begin the 2013 season, it looked like Eifert was the TE of note overJermaine Gresham, but by season's end it was Gresham seeing the action, and Eifert almost ignored. That trend + unimaginative Hue Jackson as new O-C has me a little rattled on Eifert's prognosis.

In the end, I maintain you have to value Eifert highly as a Dynasty prospect...more highly than some of the instantly productive RBs. Why? Elite TEs are so rare, you have to take shots on them when you get the look. RBs enter the NFL in waves, and flow up and down, and all around. An elite TE is a Faberge egg. Eifert is one of two possibilities from this class to be a top-5 TE for the next 5+ years. The NFL TE landscape: Gronk is fading on injury, and Tom Brady is aging. Julius Thomas may have one nice year left with Peyton. The TE market is going to dry up harshly in 2015. You must plant seeds for the drought now...and some crops may never yield. 

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2013:

#1a) TE Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati

 

8/11/13 = It's not that I am 100% in love with this pick, but when you consider all the factors, including the weakness in this rookie class, and the disappearing top Fantasy TE's (Gronk?, Pitta, Hernandez, Heath, maybe Vernon Davis goes to WR?) the TE marketplace value here is too good to ignore. There will be another million RBs and WRs in 2014, and that pop up out of nowhere within 2013. What is rare to have pop up -- elite TEs.

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6/30/13= Now is not the time to let any "who cares about TEs, they're all the same?" bias get in the way. This is simple economics 101. Aaron Hernandez is gone. Rob Gronkowski is in question. The Fantasy Football world is left with Jimmy Graham, and solid, but aging Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez. When you consider Drew Brees' age, and the effect it could have Graham...ditto for Gronk/Brady -- in two years, Eifert-Dalton may be the best QB/TE combo in Fantasy. The fact that the prior statement has some logic, means you have to take Eifert seriously in a Dynasty Draft.

There will be several more RBs falling from the sky next year, and every year. Speedy WRs grow on trees now. Young, tall, above-average athletic, great hands TEs paired with above-average (possible great/elite) QBs is vanishing. Is Eifert the best NFL prospect of 2013? No. Is he is the best, most rare for Fantasy Football? Possibly, yes.

I could make the argument that Eifert is the #1 prospect in this Dynasty Draft now. If my team was already stacked at RB, and Le'Veon Bell would be my 3rd-5th best RB on my team, and I didn't own Jimmy Graham -- I'd have to secure Eifert.

--------------

5/17/13 = The more we look at the TE situation, the more attractive the Eifert outlook becomes. My broken record statement (for a reason) -- there are waves of RBs hitting every year. There are several RBs who people have forgotten from the 2011 and 2012 NFL Draft on top of the incoming rookies. RBs I can find no problem, top TEs paired with a good-great QB is a needle in a haystack. The news of Rob Gronkowski's pending 5th-arm surgery, plus a back surgery clinch it for me -- the already low on supply elite TE class, could be a lot lower without Gronk (and that may put a dent in Aaron Hernandez as well).

You can either take one of the several mediocre RB prospects in a sea of solid-good-great RB options. You can take any one of a slew of mediocre, speedy WRs. Alternatively, you can roll the dice on a possible elite TE -- Eifert.

Last year, we had Coby Fleener highly ranked in mock drafts early on too. However, we had weaker scouting grades on Fleener (unlike Eifert); we just wanted to gamble on the Fleener-Luck situation at a certain point out of TE desperation. Similar principle here, except Eifert is a better TE prospect than Fleener by far.

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Original comments: This is a tough one -- if Jermaine Gresham disappeared, Eifert is arguably a top-3 Dynasty Rookie Draft prospect. This draft, this entire league, is thin at taller-athletic-good hands receiving TEs. He is not as gifted as Gronk-Graham-Vernon Davis, but he is definitely in the next tier. On the right team, he is FF-gold. I'm not sure if this was the right team for it. Without Gresham, definitely we love him...as we love Dalton. With Gresham there; we are confused.

If you believe that Gresham is gone, one way or the other -- then move Eifert up the board. If you think this is a TE-duo, then move Eifert down. We lean to the notion that this had to be done as a "non-Gresham in the future" plan. This situation is not Gronk-Hernandez. Gresh-Eifert are too similar to co-exist.

I could make a case that Eifert is the clear #2 option overall in the Dynasty Rookie Draft. The Gresham-thing mucks this up a touch.

 

 

 

 

#8) WR Keenan Allen, San Diego------------------------------

2014: You can mark me down wrong for this if you'd like. When it came down to it, I chose to bet against him for 2013. I took the crappy measurables and awful preseason he had...over watching tape where he looked like a smallerLarry Fitzgerald (as I mentioned a few times last pre-NFL Draft in scouting reports...and below). I hedged my bets, and I lost. I could have had him cheap a number of times and passed...as he faded from people's hearts last preseason.

I did not think he'd be that good so fast. I'm generally not a fan of skinnier/tweener-sized WRs, but Allen is obviously better than his Pro Day measurables (coming off injury to cloud the results, we can only assume).

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2013:

#32) WR Keenan Allen, San Diego

8/13/13 = I keep waiting to see something, anything from Allen. He may have great hands, but he is as thin as a rail. I have yet to see anything exciting to work with yet on paper, or on tape in Week-1 or preseason.

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Allen went from consensus #1 WR for the 2013 NFL Draft to mid-3rd-round pick. I'm split-minded on Allen, but there is something here worth looking at.

On the bad side: A terrible Pro Day workout, and a pretty pedestrian last year and half of output in college (one 100+ yard game in his last 16 games, less than 80 yards in seven of his last nine games).

On the good side: The bad Pro Day showing follows an injury issue which may have slowed him down. The really good side -- when you watch Allen, he looks like the most gifted WR in this class...a smaller/thinner Larry Fitzgerald-ish type. Allen may be better in the pros than college.

With the pros and cons, factor in that the Chargers are a great landing spot. He has no real threat on the depth chart besides Vincent Brown (oft injured). Philip Rivers is a good NFL QB, which is better than Allen falling in with Locker-Gabbert-Flynn et al.

 

 

 

 

#9) RB Christine Michael, Seattle------------------------------

2014: One could make an argument for Christine Michael or Knile Davis ahead of Eddie Lacy or Montee Ball, but it's not a 100% talent discussion...it's a situational one as well. I rated Michael lower last year because I saw a 2-3 year slog before he'd be viable...meaning people would forget about him to some degree. He'd be available in trade easily.

However, right now, Michael is 'white hot' for FF-value, and Marshawn Lynch is kinda acting weird. It seems like the Michael takeover is underway. However, I fear that people are building Michael into David Wilson 2.0...a 'god' who doesn't necessarily exist. NFL teams tend not to rip the ball away from a successful, proven RB (like Lynch) to just hand it to an unproven young RB (Michael)...if they did, a guy like Frank Gore would have been a journeyman RB the past few years. Instead, he roadblocks several talented runners.

If Marshawn Lynch retires this year (which won't happen), then Christine Michael is a top-3 guy on this list. However, if all Michael does is take intermittent carries for Seattle in 2014, you'll be furious. If Lynch stays another year, into 2015...then my three-year prediction below was right all along.

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2013:

#22) RB Christine Michael, Seattle

8/13/13 = We know he's ultra-talented, but we also know he can be an off-field issue. He looked great in the preseason Week-1, and Robert Turbin has missed a bunch of training camp.

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Original Comments: Michael is a top-5 talent in the Dynasty Rookie Draft, but landed in about the worst situation a rookie RB could land in. It is quite possible that Michael becomes an NFL star, so for that there is value for sure. However, the path to do so in Seattle is narrow and crowded.

Michael is a very questionable effort and character prospect. He brings baggage to the situation right away. On top of his issues, Michael has to overcome three other very talented, similarly built RBs -- Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, and Spencer Ware.

I have no idea what the Seahawks were thinking with the pick of Michael so high. I would want Michael too, but withLynch-Turbin in place, was this a great need? Then, to draft Ware later...I do not get the urgency. I get the talent accumulation, but not the spend. For FF purposes, this is a mess for Michael. You have to have a lot of things go right for Michael to have a path to NFL greatness...you have to bet against it at this point. He is a worthy talent, but depending upon where he is valued in a Dynasty Rookie Draft. I have no interest in waiting three years for the three good games he will yield. Too cluttered; it is a shame...

 

 

 

 

#10) ILB Alec Ogletree, St. Louis------------------------------

2014: 118 tackles in his rookie season...not bad. Throw in a 98-yard INT return TD as well! He should only get better, no? Ogletree has perpetual Pro Bowl talent. Any question of attitude and adaptability were shown not to be an issue in year-one. He should be a dynamic fixture for STL.

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2013:

#17) ILB Alec Ogletree, St. Louis

Ogletree is a 100+ tackle-a-year guy instantly, if he has his head screwed on straight. He may be a 125-150+ tackle per-year guy as an ILB. St. Louis is developing a great defense, Ogletree is another log on the fire. There is risk that the fame, money, etc. could be a hindrance...he's had several off-field issues in college. An "A-/B+" talent, and a "D" character.

 

 

 

 

#11) RB Gio Bernard, Cincinnati------------------------------

2014: Most people see Gio Bernard as an 'A-grade' RB in an 'A-' situation. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is about done, andJeremy Hill is a rookie, one-dimensional runner. We see Gio as a 'B-/C+' RB talent in a 'B+ to B-' situation...which is still 'something', just not as excited as others are. Bernard is not big RB, nor overly fast...he's just solid. His 2014 looks good because BJGE is likely gone, and Jeremy Hill could be a major flop. Long-term, I just don't know that Gio will be that exciting to anyone, per se.

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2013:

#8) RB Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati

I know, I am shocked he is this high for us as well. However, opportunity and surrounding circumstance mean everything in Fantasy Football. Bernard has one of the clearest paths to 15+ carries a game of any RB in the 2013 class. At worst, Gio and BJGE will be in a split role. BJGE is not so talented that he can't be nudged out. The problem is that Bernard Scott is more talented than either of them; except he is always hurt.

Logic says Bernard will split with BJGE. Logic says Gio will be used more because he was selected higher. My heart says, Bernard Scott is experienced and could make this a three-way mess at some point. Bernard is just not so ultra-talented that it is a given he takes this whole thing over. Logically, Gio is valued higher. My gut tells me to be afraid...very afraid of a let-down here.

At least one person in your league will likely have a Gio hard-on, so I would trade him into that pre-draft or post-draft. I'd only take Gio here with the thought of trading him. In many early Dynasty Rookie drafts, Bernard is going #1, 2 or 3 overall...so a crafty strategy really won't matter anyway; he'll be long gone.

 

 

 

 

 

#12) RB Zac Stacy, St. Louis------------------------------

2014: I'd like to have Stacy higher on this list, but the Rams drafting Tre Mason throws me for a loop. The same people making RB decisions the last two years, and favoring Daryl Richardson, are still making RB decisions. It doesn't make me feel great having Stacy for FF-Dynasty long-term.

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2013:

#10) RB Zac Stacy, St. Louis

8/13/13 = This is all situational gambling...because Stacy looks like every 2nd-string, solid RB that ever existed this decade. This is a pick that's good for about a year or two at best. The Rams will land a better RB, and Stacy will disappear.

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5/19/13 = Stacy has a better FF 2013 outlook, but is not as talented, nor has as favorable a 2014+ outlook versus Ball and Lacy. If it's all about FF 2013, Stacy has equal/better odds. If you have a longer-term Dynasty team building vision -- Ball or Lacy would be better RB prospects.

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Original comments: Zac Stacy is between the 5th and 10th best RB prospect in this class from a talent basis. However, for Fantasy, he has landed in the single best situation to start and take 250+ carries this season. He is a 4.5 40-time runner with great power (27 bench reps) and sensational agility. He has the physical profile of a "B" grade NFL RB. His situation may give him an "A" opportunity.

Do not fear Isaiah Pead -- as we told you that he was problematic in the 2012 preseason. Do not fear Daryl Richardson, as we implored you not to all 2012 regular season -- and you doubted, and then had to admit we were right in the end. The Rams have nothing but crap at RB on their roster coming into the 2013 NFL Draft.

Before you get giddy, because no one else will have Stacy this high, and you will smell an opportunity here that others don't...pause for a moment.

I see two downsides to this...

1) The Rams are a really good team; a playoff caliber team. They cannot, feasibly, go into the 2013 with this current RB roster. However, I thought they couldn't prefer Daryl Richardson to Steven Jackson the 3-4 weeks that they did last year, and cost themselves a shot at the playoffs. This Stacy ranking is as of today. If they sign Ahmad Bradshaw tomorrow, Stacy is going to fall quickly. If you believe that is going to happen, then you should consider him fringe top-10 overall for a Dynasty Rookie Draft.

2) UDFA RB Benny Cunningham is really good. The Rams scooped him up post draft. He is coming off injury, and is a UDFA which makes him a little bit of a longer shot. Cunningham could supplant Ahmad Bradshaw or Zac Stacy...or at least create some chaos.

Stacy is the Rams' best NFL-ready RB right now. A very good RB, who could have a great season due circumstance in 2013 -- like Alfred Morris did last year.

 

 

 

 

 

#13) RB Knile Davis, Kansas City------------------------------

2014: In a different universe, Knile Davis is in the top-3 on this list...if not for looking up at Jamaal Charles on the depth chart. Some of you can 'taste' Christine Michael's takeover of Marshawn Lynch, but Knile Davis seems a million miles away from playing time. A couple of thoughts: (1) Charles is a free agent at the end of 2015. He might night be worth the huge contract turning 30 with high mileage and an ACL surgery in recent years. (2) Charles is a smaller (200-pound) RB with high miles and an ACL surgery in recent years. Charles is as much a candidate to wear out as Marshawn Lynch from heavy usage.

Davis has feature-back talent...waiting to arrive on the scene. Charles is what stands in his way.

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2013:

#9) RB Knile Davis, Kansas City 

I want to have Davis a lot higher, but I cannot do it. Jamaal Charles is too much of a road block. There is no way Davis steals the job completely from Charles. However, he will be the power runner to complement Charles -- and he might have a nice value there; just not the off-the-charts value he would have had if he'd landed at STL instead ofZac Stacy.

Charles is not a free agent until 2016, so further bad news for Davis. However, Charles' body type lends itself to injury potential. If another Charles injury ever happens..."it's on."

If you own Charles, then Davis is probably #2-3 overall on your Dynasty Rookie Draft list. You have to have this handcuff, just like Rice/Pierce, Bradshaw/Wilson, Bush/Miller last year. Davis is an A+ talent in a D+ situation.

 

 

 

 

#14) CB Dee Milliner, NY Jets------------------------------

2014: The football media hated on Dee Milliner all year, but he actually had a great FF-season. He had 66 tackles in 13 games/12 starts. On a per game basis, Milliner was one of the best CB-tackle tally guys in the league. He also picked-off three passes and had 15 passes-defended. The Jets gambling defensive style, and their awesome run-defense should lead to more PDs and INTs for Milliner, as well as plenty of tackles.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#20) CB Dee Milliner, NY Jets

Take one part very good rookie CB who will start right away, and mix with a team that has a dreadful offense that will not sustain time of possession -- and it will equal a ton of throws at him 2013. If your scoring system favors passes-defended, then Milliner would project highly for FF this season. Milliner is a solid tackler and will give you decent tallies there as well (unlike Xavier Rhodes who absolutely will not give you tackle totals).

 

 

 

 

 

#15) DE Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit------------------------------

2014: If your IDP league favors sacks for scoring, then you have a likely 10+ sack a year guy as long as Ndamukong Suh stays put.

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2013:

#18)  DE Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit (-1 spot)

There are issues here -- inexperience, low production in college, possibly 5+ years older than he says/thinks. The upside to that is that he is the best physically-constructed DE in the draft, and just joined a D-Line with Ndamukong Suh. The attention Suh gets could make Ansah a double-digit sack producer quickly.

I like what I have seen on Ansah from tape -- chasing ballcarriers away from his side of the field, great effort, amazing physical gifts. The physical measurement data backs it up. The problem is that he had mediocre results in college. Take great measurables, and the cloud cover from Suh -- and he may be a defensive Rookie of the Year...whether he is 22 or 25 or 28 or however old he is.

 

 

 

 

#16) RB Latavius Murray, Oakland------------------------------

2014: Well, this scouting call seems a million miles off right now, but that's based on today's prism. By mid-2014 regular season, he could be on fire. This is a rocket waiting to launch...but maybe it won't launch for a while...or ever.

Murray got 'injured' last preseason, and was shelved for the season. The Raiders have signed MJD, and re-signedDMC...forcing another Murray delay.

I think Murray is the most gifted athlete among the 2013 RB class, but he has some injury issues/labels to worry about. I hope we get a chance to see it, but I'm not naive enough to think there is risk that he gets buried for a while in 2014.

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2013:

#7) RB Latavius Murray, Oakland

8/29/13 = Murray has been nicked at little in camp, and has gone into the doghouse with coaches. The talent is there, but we're not sure about the mindset. There is hope; this is a lottery ticket play.

 

8/13/13 = The more and more I look at it -- the most rare species at RB in this draft are Le'Veon Bell and Latavius Murray. Bell is rated higher because of a completely clear path to the main touches, whereas Murray has DMC in the way. Assuming the Raiders flop again in 2013, then McFadden (the free agent) likely drifts away and the door is wide-open for Murray.

Eddie Lacy is having weight issues, and we have started to expose Montee Ball as flawed (and he looked it in Week-1 of the preseason) -- there is no high-end, elite RB to us except Latavius Murray. That being the case, I am becoming more interested in investing in Murray for the long-term boom or bust...plus, the draft price is most excellent as well (but not as good when we first trumpet blasted this to the world).

There is nothing sure here, just a pure gamble in a weak Dynasty Rookie Draft.

------------

Orginal Comments: All that stands in the way of Murray becoming the breakout rookie star RB of 2013 is Darren McFadden --which means the odds are not too long that he will be the starter at some point in 2013; on the next DMC injury.

Even better, the Raiders cannot keep spending $9M+ a year on a low ROI RB (well, they can, they're the Raiders...). McFadden is an unrestricted free agent in 2014. This is it for him. The Raiders would be completely stupid to pay DMC $5-8M per year to stay in Oakland...which means at least a 50/50 chance that they will. If they do bail though, then the Raiders' full, clean starting RB in 2014 is the ultra-talented Latavius Murray.

This may require a year of waiting, but it may very well be worth it and then some. However, you cannot be shocked to see a DMC injury at any moment -- and thus the quicker rise of Murray.

Murray will not likely be among anyone's top-10 or even top 25-35+ Dynasty Rookies for 2013, so pace yourselves on where you should make this pick.

 

 

 

#17) QB Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay------------------------------

2014: We're all kinda in love Josh McCown because we are in love with his 2013 flash and the idea of his receiving corps (VJax, Evans, ASJ, etc.). It's not crazy to think that way. We think that is will be Mike Glennon's team somewhere between mid-season and to start 2015...thus Glennon could be the one inheriting all the weapons...and making him the next Matt Ryan--a good QB taken to a higher FF-level by the surrounding weapons.

Glennon had a terrific rookie season, seeing as how most rookie QBs flop initially. He is very undervalued NFL-wise, and potentially FF-wise. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#31) QB Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay  

8/22/13 = Mike Glennon has been the best-looking rookie QB in the 2013 preseason, about that there is no debate. The problem with getting too ultra-excited is that Glennon is on a career glide path like an Eli Manning or Joe Flacco..."NFL good," but not necessarily FF "good." He'll be the Bucs starter in 2014, if not much earlier. That's worth something...

--------------------------------

Original Comments: There is no doubt that Glennon is the first attempt to replace Josh Freeman in 2013 or 2014. Long-term, Freeman will not be the Bucs starting QB by choice, and Greg Schiano has given multiple signs of being lukewarm on Freeman.

Glennon is a poor man's Eli Manning...which may mean he flops in the NFL. However, there is a chance that he becomes a stable starter in the NFL, and that will have some FF value, especially because Glennon seems to prefer throwing deep more than most QBs. We're not sensing star QB here, but "good" is on the table.

 

 

 

 

#18) WR Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh------------------------------

2014: Considering that the Steelers let Emmanuel Sanders and Jericho Cotchery walk, and only added Lance Moore in free agency...someone has to be in that Sanders role. We think Wheaton is better than Sanders. He could really impress this season. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#26) WR Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh

I'd absolutely love this pick more if Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders were not already on the Steelers. Wheaton is arguably a better WR than Brown, but for FF purposes they are similar. Wheaton is no Mike Wallaceeither...no one is except Torrey Smith (who is better than Wallace). Wheaton is far superior to Sanders, but likely sits behind him for a year and then takes his spot -- which is brilliant of the Steelers to set up.

If for some reason A. Brown went down, Wheaton, not Sanders, would be the WR excitement I would want for FF.

This is another situation where you mostly skip now due to current depth chart congestion (unless he is a cheap pick), then you trade for him in six months when the rookie hysteria dies down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

#19) WR Josh Boyce, New England------------------------------

2014: I should probably have Boyce in the top-10, but I am a little nervous about the cluttered WR corps of New England, as well as how much longer Tom Brady sits at the top of his game. Boyce could be great...he has the elite speed, agility, power, football IQ to be excellent.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#11b) WR Josh Boyce, New England

8/31/13 = This is just too tempting. There is too much talent to ignore--playing on one of the NFL's preeminent offenses. I'm gambling that Boyce really is the best "small WR" (or WR period) in this draft...he and Patton.

 

6/30/13 = Given the T.J. Moe injury, and the Aaron Hernandez situation, things are perking up for Boyce. The more we look at Boyce's metrics scouting profile, the more excited we are about him as a pure talent. Still, the Pats situation is so congested with talent, and quasi-talent at WR...it is hard to see a path to quick viability for Boyce.

 

5/9/13 = The more we look at what the Patriots are doing at both RB and WR, the more we feel that this whole Pats WR (and RB) situation will be nothing but Fantasy distress. Our computer makes a case for Boyce as the best WR prospect in this draft. Our computer also thinks Donald Jones was arguably the best "small WR" in the 2010 draft. We all know Danny Amendola is good. Julian Edelman is a talent. Michael Jenkins is decent. Undrafted WR T.J. Moe is crafty. Aaron Dobson is possible. The two TEs are sensational. The Pats just signed respectable ex-Titans WRLavelle Hawkins.

Josh Boyce has about ten rungs of a ladder to climb before he becomes "the man" for the Pats. More worrisome, I don't think there is "a man" for the Patriots. The Pats are going to come at you from all angles, and with a variety of weapons -- they will be even more unpredictable for NFL opponents than usual. They will be even more unbearable for Fantasy GMs who have any of their RBs or WRs. I love Boyce, but there are a lot hurdles here. Too many...

Original Comments: This NFL Draft pick flew right under the radar. We could make an argument that Boyce is the best overall WR in this draft, and he is going to one of the top passing teams of our lifetime...and to a team that just so happens to have some issues at WR depth. If Danny Amendola did not exist -- Boyce would be a top-10 Dynasty Rookie Draft rank. He is overall better, and a different style WR, than Aaron Dobson. Boyce is a similar/better version of what Donald Jones could become.

Because of the crowded talent pool in New England, Boyce has to be looked at with a little skepticism for FF. However, the talent is of a top-10 nature. This is probably more of an 1-2 year wait investment, than an instant return in 2013.

Amendola is often hurt, as is D. Jones. The path to relevance in 2013 isn't totally off the table, but a lot of "ifs" have to happen in order to get the quick impact. I love this player, and pick by the Pats, but for Dynasty it is a little bit more of a wait-and-see type of player.

 

 

 

#20) TE Jordan Reed, Washington------------------------------

2014: You can tell we have a 'small' 56-spot differential just a year later. I did not feel Reed would/could become an Aaron Hernandez in this offense. I'm still a bit skeptical. He's a talent, but he's not a prototypical big, tall red-zone threat. He's going to make a living as a 'slot' TE-type. He could be a PPR stud, but I'm still skeptical...and he'll probably be a let down in non-PPR.

You have extra risk here because of Reed's concussion issues. Reed's Dynasty value on this list is pumped because he is a TE. He should get knocked down more for fear that one more hit could end it all. Very risky here, but there's not a lot of excitement remaining on this Dynasty Rookie list.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#76) TE Jordan Reed, Washington

 

 

 

 

 

 

#21) DT Sheldon Richardson, NY Jets------------------------------

2014:  We thought Richardson would be good, but we did not see him leading all DTs in tackles in 2013. Muhammad Wilkerson really helps open things up for everyone. Most DTs are boring, but Williams got heavy tackle counts (for a DT) and got to go in for two rushing TDs. You gotta love those extra six-point pops! I'm sure he'll get 1-2-3 of them again this year.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

Not in top-100: DT Sheldon Richardson, NYJ

 

 

 

 

 

 

#22) WR Tavon Austin, St. Louis------------------------------

2014: Well, that advice below was prescient. I just don't know if Austin ever has star power in the NFL/FF. He may wind up like a poor man's T.Y. Hilton: Some big plays, which means some big games...and a lot of mediocrity in-between, and you're always left guessing for FF as to when it will occur. .

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#3) WR Tavon Austin, St. Louis

Hear me out here. I haven't gone to the dark side...

You have to consider taking him here, even though you don't want him. He is going #1-2-3 overall in every Dynasty Rookie Draft. If I were picking #2-3 overall, I take him just to trade him...because there are so many questions after 1.01 pick.

Austin's value is so inflated from a fawning media it is embarrassing, but we have to recognize the value of that -- the trade value of that.

Austin is a B/C talent, who currently has A+ value. Taking him at 1.02 to flip him is probably the best move you can make in this draft after Bell at 1.01. Austin's a decent player -- he will have some Chris Givens or T.Y. Hiltonmoments -- big highlight plays, followed by a lot of so-so. He is a very big injury risk at his diminutive NFL size. I wouldn't hate having him on my FF team, but I'd rather trade him for a slightly lower pick Dynasty Rookie pick + Cecil Shorts...or use him in a deal with something else to help get a discounted (if they are) C.J. Spiller or Rob Gronkowski-type rare-commodity difference-maker.

If Austin were a NASDAQ stock -- we would say he is a "bubble" stock. He trades at a multiple way above his actual returns. Use that power for your own good! Love the bubble! Just make sure you get out before the bubble bursts.

 

 

 

 

#23) DeAndre Hopkins, Houston------------------------------

I'm kinda 'meh' on DeAndre Hopkins. I know he is a solid NFL prospect, a good player, but we just don't see the 'star' athleticism, etc. I like him, but I don't love him. I fear he falls in that Nate Washington zone: Better than given credit, but constantly on and off Fantasy teams, and in and out of starting lineups...a 'warm body' guy. He might be a shade better than that, but with the wave of new/talented WRs hitting the NFL, I'm just not that impressed with Hopkins. If he were in the 2014 NFL Draft, I'm not sure he'd rate in anyone's top 8-10 WR prospects for 2014. 

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2013:

#13) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston (-2 spots)

This is chocolate and peanut butter finding each other. The Texans have been desperate for a legit WR offset toAndre Johnson. This is finally it; no more "maybe" or "might." Hopkins is a legit #2 WR. Matt Schaub will make use of his #2 -- now that he finally has a reasonable one. At times, Schaub made Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jonesmomentarily exciting. Hopkins is more the real deal. He is a "B+" talent, in a "A-" situation. You likely will not be let down here.

The reason Hopkins is not higher is that really good possession WRs are a dime-a-dozen. They ebb and flow with their situation. With the right QB, Andre Roberts is better for FF than Hopkins. Cecil Shorts is better than the two just mentioned...even with Blaine Gabbert.

It's not crazy for you to value Hopkins higher on this list if WR is more a need for you; and RB not so much. From our computer analysis, the current need to find RB talent outweighs that of WR talent (in general)...thus Hopkins ranked behind a cluster of RBs. Hopkins as the #3-5 overall on a Dynasty list is not crazy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

#24) WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee------------------------------

2014: Our computer scouting models were not convinced at all going into the NFL Draft...skinny (196 pounds at 6'4"), non-agile (measured), underperformer in big games. However, my 2013 eyeballs saw a nimble, eye-catching WR. He made some moves on people that totally shocked me, and had me running to check out data. I was totally against Hunter last year. I am open to being wrong this year.

He has added weight in the offseason, so he strikes another thing off the list of grievances I had against him. I'm still a bit skeptical, but open to the idea now. last year, I listed him as 'would not take,' I've moved past that into possibly take.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

'Would not take' list in 2013: WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee -- this is a pure bust waiting to happen, at best he will be mediocre/useful in the NFL.

 

 

 

 

#25) WR Aaron Dobson, New England------------------------------------------------

2014: I like Dobson a little more than DeAndre Hopkins (above), but the Patriots WR situation is lot more congested. I could argue that Dobson is the 6th-best passing game option on the Pats (Gronk, Vereen, Edelman, Boyce, Amendola). If he were on the Texans, he'd be right behind Andre Johnson and Arian Foster. A little muddled situation plus injuries last year, and into this year...I'm optimistic, but not wildly enthused. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#24) WR Aaron Dobson, New England

8/22/13 = The Patriots WR group of names is thinning out. Dobson looks like he as bulked up pretty well. He could be a James Jones type in this offense: Moderately talented, but much higher output due to the QB/offense.

------------------

Original Comments: You will have one of two reactions here -- both are wrong.

1)  Some believe that Dobson is a star WR prospect, and that simply is not a clear-cut case. Dobson is a bit of a "tweener" -- not a massive WR at 6'2+ and 210, but not the profile of a crafty underneath/slot WR either. Good speed, weak agility, thin-framed, decent on-field output. There is no sign of "special" here as a prospect. A poor man'sBrandon Lloyd.

2)  ..."Well, if the Patriots took him, he must be pretty good."

Quick -- name the high impact WRs for the Patriots that were home-grown for (aka originally drafted by) New England?Deion Branch 2002 and Troy Brown in 2003 are the recent best...neither off the charts. Since Branch/Brown 10+ years ago -- Chad Jackson was the # 36 overall pick for them in 2006. There is also Julian Edelman, and most recently Taylor Price. Jackson-Edelman-Price highlight the Pats WR choices in recent years. Raise your hand if what you think of mid-major WR Aaron Dobson has a similar vibe to what you thought of mid-major WR Taylor Price before he flamed out?

I am not saying Dobson is not NFL-worthy, but be cautious of making the leap to potential superstar. The WR the Patriots drafted in 2013 who has superstar quality is Josh Boyce, not Dobson. The current depth chart is an issue -- Boyce is potentially good/great, so is Donald Jones, so is Julian Edelman, so is Danny AmendolaMichael Jenkinsis crafty, and similar. We know what Gronk-Hernandez are capable of.

You are not getting a #1 or #2 option here for Brady. You might not be getting a #6 option here. By the time Dobson is moved up the pecking order...Tom Brady might be 37+ years-old.

There is some logic here, but there is risk to consider -- enough risk to warrant considering Dobson as overvalued for a 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft today. I'd take Josh Boyce well ahead of Dobson, especially in a PPR.

 

 

 

 

#26) TE Luke Willson, Seattle---------------------------------------------

2014: This may seem high (ranking or drugs wise), but again I stress: The search for an elite TE, or even a really good one, drives these lottery tickets higher. Willson is a very athletics TE, working with a young, developing passing game pared with a future elite QB. What you'd think about Coby Fleener applies here...athletic + young, talent QB = might be something for Fantasy Football someday.

He played a lot last season. He should take another step forward this season.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#15) TE Luke Willson, Seattle

6/30/13 = For all the reasons mention above for Tyler Eifert, you have to consider the lesser-talented, but talented Willson the same way.

 

5/19/13 = The more we evaluate the 2013=2014 landscape, the more we keep coming up with how critical finding an elite FF TE is. Rob Gronkowski continues to have injury issues, and is striking fear into the hearts of his owners. A missing Gronk (again) may have a negative impact on Aaron Hernandez as well -- and thus two of the top-3 FF TEs would be in peril.

Willson is nowhere near the 14th best rookie talent in 2013, but for FF, and the growing FF desperation for TE hope/talent -- he is moving up the charts as a TE-lottery ticket.

===========================

One of the more athletic TEs from the NFL Draft is going to join with one of the best QB/offenses in the NFL -- and it is a team that does not have a great receiving weapon TE as it is. This could wind up to be a crafty Fantasy Football play in the end...by circumstance. See our scouting report for more information.

There is an element of risk -- Willson has the option of playing professional baseball as well.

 

 

 

#27) LB Kiko Alonso, Buffalo------------------------------

2014: Alonso barely registered a blip on our computer scouting models in 2013. He measured as an 'OK' athlete with a decent, but not amazing college performance...he came into the pros as a rookie, and was an amazing tackler (159 tackles in 2013). I'm not sure if 'amazing' is the right word, as much as he is a 'willing' tackler. He makes a ton of assisted tackles (vs. high 'solo' tackle counts)...way more than most of the big tackle guys...which is one of the reasons he was being moved from ILB to OLB.

I'm still not a huge fan, but I can see the tackle-totals and admit that I'd like that for FF. Any excitement we all might have had got doused by his recent ACL tear, costing him his 2014. He's better than we thought, but maybe not as good as I think people are making him out to be.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

*Not in the top-100: LB Kiko Alonso, Buffalo

 

 

 

 

#28) RB Andre Ellington, Arizona-------------------------------------------------

2014: I suspect many people producing a 2013 Dynasty Draft re-do list would have Ellington in their top-10. We all know why. I see the opportunity in 2014, but I don't believe Ellington is an every-down RB...he'll do fine with a bunch of touches...but we dont think he'll hold up. Eventually, in 2014 or 2015, the Cardinals will draft or sign a bigger RB to split the carries/touches.

Ellington had a nice 2013, but a touch overrated as a runner...clever in the passing game. Basically, he had one huge run (80-yard TD run)...and then a bunch of normal/underwhelming output. He's better than we thought, but not as good as where everyone is elevating him to.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#52) RB Andre Ellington, Arizona

 

 

 

 

 

#29) LB Jarvis Jones, Pittsburgh-------------------------------------------------

2014: Jones had 8 tackles in Week-2, and then kinda-sorta disappeared for 12 games with 1-2 tackles in most every game. In the Steelers 2013 finale' Jones registed 9 tackles. He only had one sack all year. He did not take the world by storm...which worries me that the 'bad' measurables guy is the reality over the phenomenal SEC performer. He stays in out top-25 on hopes that 2015 will begin his breakout to good-greatness.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#19) OLB Jarvis Jones, Pittsburgh

Jarvis Jones has a talent for pressuring the QB, and making plays. His measurables say it's not possible in the NFL. My heart says the measurables may have been a false read -- he was just too good on tape. However, (almost) everything we do is based on the numbers...so we are kind of stuck. Do we throw out the data and trust our eyes (which is a very bad thing to do), or stick to the data? The performance metrics says "A", and the measurables say "D"...which kind of comes together with a lukewarm average of "B-/C+".

If I take the talent part of the equation, then I'd have to think about Jones as a top 10-12 pick overall for Dynasty Rookie Draft. perhaps the single best IDP there is. If I trust the measurables more, I steer clear.

I lean toward trusting the performance, and thus the tape. A player cannot be so good in the SEC, and simultaneously be so slow/weak/un-agile. However, I am hedged because of the negative measurables data. I'm an indecisive moderate here. Sorry.

 

 

 

 

#30) TE Demetrius Harris, Kansas City------------------------------

2014: This may be a bit of a shocker, but again I point to a running theme: I want to take chances at greatness...and greatness at more 'rare' positions (TE and QB). Harris could never see an NFL field, but anytime you take former basketball player to convert to TE, my Antonio Gates-spidey senses are tingling. I'm a 'mark' for that kind of TE prospect.

Travis Kelce is a more polished, more likely, and more secure...but will probably going on to be the 10th-20th best TE for a FF season, and you will not care less in time. Kelce is not a superstar prospect...we all just hope he bumps Anthony Fasano and is sneaky good for a bit. Our expectations are moderate. Harris could blow, or be Julius Thomas 2.0...we don't know, but I want to find out...cheaply.

It's not just the whole 'Gates' dot connection simplicity, you can see we didn't really get that excited last year. It's that he did what he needed to do last year: added weight, added muscle...and the coaches are talking. We have some hope with this long-shot lottery ticket.

I'm not going to apologize or cry if this doesn't work out...this is a calculated low-risk reach for something 'special.'

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#109) TE Demetrius Harris, Kansas City

 

 

 

 

#31) DE Barkevious Mingo, Cleveland--------------------------------------------

2014: Mingo recorded a sack in each of his first three games in 2013, and then quietly faded the rest oif the season...tallying just 2.0 more sacks in his final 12 games. He's an athletic 'A', but very questionable work ethic and desire. He's a prospect to value in a sack league, because pursuing tackles never really was his thing. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#34) DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, Cleveland

8/13/13 = We're very skeptical of Mingo becoming a star in the NFL. Our computer has two reads: tremendous athlete...wildly unproductive. He is the classic "looks great in shorts" prospect according to our computer models. I saw it on tape as well. You will see flashes of brilliance, with a lot of nothing. The flashes of brilliance sustaining gives Mingo FF hope...

 

 

 

 

#32) RB Khiry Robinson, New Orleans------------------------------

2014: I want to get super-excited about Khiry too! We were one of the first (the Saints were the actual first) to notice there was something here to pay attention to for FF, back in the 2013 preseason. By the end of the football year, everyone loved Khiry. He's a nice power runner, and has better than most people realize skills for the passing game.

On some teams, Robinson would garner RB1 excitement for 2014...but we all know how congested things get with the Saints backfield. We can only be cautiously optimistic. At best, he'll split time with Pierre Thomas, and to some degree with mark Ingram in 2014. This is more a 2015+ story, if it develops fully. We're all excited by Khiry's initial splash, but he's not a stud measurables runner...he's going to work best as part of a duo or trio.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#62) RB Khiry Robinson 

 

 

 

 

 

#33) WR Marquess Wilson, Chicago------------------------------

2014: Wilson, on many other teams, would rate much higher. On Chicago, with Marshall-Jeffery already in place, and stars in their own right...it will be tough for Wilson to make a FF-breakthrough until free agency, or Brandon Marshall fading off in a couple of year. Wilson would be higher on this list if you didn't have to wait another 1-2 years to see big-time targets/production.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#58) WR Marquess Wilson, Chicago  

 

 

 

 

 

 

#34) TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City------------------------------

2014: The poetry of having Kelce rated behind Demetrius Harris...

You see what I said above. Kelce is the odds on future TE for Kansas City, but maybe not...and the huge upside gamble is Harris.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#50) TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City  

A more athletic TE than our computer models may be interpreting. Given the desperation for good/great TEs for Fantasy, and the possibility here...Kelce is moving up. He is probably a 2014-15 story, and going to sit behindAnthony Fasano all 2013.

 

 

 

 

#35) WR Da'Rick Rogers, Indianapolis------------------------------

2014: The computer saw a little something here, but it was buried a little under Rogers' baggage (kicked off of Tennessee) for his senior season. He went undrafted in 2013...further worrying us that his personal pre-draft interviews didn't go well; confirming off-field trouble. We started the 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings with Rogers in the top-30, only to slow drop him to #71 by the end. The Bills tried him out, and cut him...and then he kinda disappeared off the radar screen.

He surfaced in Indy during the season, and I have to tell you--he looked very good/great in his moments. I was shocked. He bulked up, and was physically abusing defenders...and making big plays. His first real playing time: 6 catches for 107 yards and 2 TDs vs. Cincy later in 2013 season. Rogers has something, but he also plays on a very crowded roster right now: Hakeem Nicks in, Donte Moncrief drafted...that doesn't make me feel like Rogers is seen as a cornerstone. His talent is enough to keep me having some faith.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#71) WR Da'Rick Rogers, Buffalo  

 

 

 

 

#36) CB Desmond Trufant, Atlanta------------------------------

2014:  Desmond Trufant is a better CB version of Justin Gilbert, but Gilbert offers punt-kick return skills. We think Trufant is a future Pro Bowler, but have a fear for FF that he might become a nice lock-down CB, who never gets throw at or has tackle opportunities...and thus no real FF-output. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#39) CB Desmond Trufant, Atlanta

7/20/13: Love him as an NFL player, but do not see where all the FF stats will come from -- not a big time tackler, and if QBs avoid him, his PDs will be lower too.

-----------------------------

Original Comments: If there is a true lockdown CB in this draft; it is Trufant. He will likely start right away...and be tested right away. There is a chance for an quick FF return for those whose scoring systems favor passes-defended and/or INTs. He is our top rated CB in the 2013 draft class, and should start right away -- there is a reason why Atlanta traded up and bumped ahead of Minnesota to get him.

Trufant isn't a big-time tackler, but he is decent. If he is as good as we think, then down the road he may not get many defended-passes, as QBs avoid him...and that may hurt his IDP/FF value.

 

 

 

#37) TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia------------------------------

2014: Ertz is more polished, and assured than the just mentioned (above) Demetrius Harris and Travis Kelce. However, he plays in an offense with a lot of weapons, and shares time with Brent Celek. When Celek goes, it will loosen up Ertz more, but we still do not see star power here, just a mediocre TE who will catch TDs from time-to-time.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

Will not touch: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia -- a lot of TEs on the depth chart, and Ertz is somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd best among them. We don't feel Ertz is a breakout talent, and if he is working with Michael Vick -- you can forget it. He will go much higher than what I would consider, so "I'm out."

 

 

 

 

#38) WR Quinton Patton, San Francisco------------------------------

2014:  Patton goes from a non-crowded WR situation, to an extremely crowded one. We had hoped he would make a move on the 3rd-WR position in 2013 or 2014. He now falls behind Crabtree-Boldin-Stevie Johnson...and Vernon Davis...and possibly Bruce Ellington. I like Paton, but he is very buried right now.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#11a) WR Quinton Patton, San Francisco

8/22/13 = This gets suddenly more interesting with A.J. Jenkins traded. The best upside talent WR on the 49ers is potentially Patton, but is also the most inexperienced.

 

5/23/13 = The Michael Crabtree injury launches Patton higher up the charts. We have to use some caution here, as last year's 1st-round NFL Draft pick, A.J. Jenkins, is an equal/superior prospect...and Patton will fight Jenkins for playing time. There is potential for both to become starters as Jenkins is more a home-run hitter, and Patton is more like Crabtree -- a "good hands" WR. We like Patton better than Crabtree, but a split debate on whether he is better than Jenkins.

========================

Original Comments: Patton could be one-year away from being a 80+ catch a season WR. In 2013, with Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree in the mix, Patton is not likely to see a lot of time/targets. In 2014, we think both of those WRs (Boldin and Crab) will be gone through various means.

In one year, from what we know now, Patton will be the best "hands" WR on the dangerous, up-tempo 49ers offense. Patton has great hands and top on-field performance metrics, and has above-average athleticism. He could be the best WR on the 49ers in 2014. This is a one-year wait-and-see investment most likely.

 

 

 

 

#39) RB Benny Cunningham, St. Louis------------------------------

2014:  I figured it would be Benny or Zac Stacy for the Rams RB job, and not Daryl Richardson or Isaiah Pead (you can see below, we called that in advance). Stacy became a star-ish, and Benny wasn't a bad backup. I'd love Benny more if the Rams did not draft Tre Mason. This whole situation is gummed up now.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#16) RB Benny Cunningham, St. Louis

The X-factor. The big gamble. Mix one part great situation (see Zac Stacy recap above), and one part potential phenom RB (Cunningham) and you may get lightning in a bottle. The back-story is against lightning striking -- a RB coming off season-ending injury and going undrafted is not a recipe for instant FF success per se. This situation shows "hope." *Re-read his scouting report to get in the proper mindset.

The biggest reason for "hope" is that all the pre-draft Rams RBs stink, and Zac Stacy is just pretty good. None of them are that tall a mountain to climb. Cunningham may be a 3rd or 4th-round NFL Draft pick talent; hidden away by his mid-season 2012 injury. Cunningham has a legit chance to be the Rams' starting RB in 2013...potentially. The odds would be against it, but not crazy odds.

If something happens to Stacy, then this is really hot. If the Rams acquire a veteran RB, it will get colder (same with Stacy). No one in your Dynasty Rookie Draft will have Cunningham on their radar (today), unless they are a CFM client. You can save this for your last pick most likely. This is one part handcuff to Stacy, one part hope he beats out Stacy.

 

 

 

 

#40) TE Vance McDonald, San Francisco------------------------------

2014: Well, this is not good. I raced McDonald from #68 in Version 1.0, all the way to #1b. By our final Version (8.0)...and I feel like I got stabbed with a broken piece of glass...repeatedly...and bled out on several Dynasty GMs who made McDonald a last-round pick. Hey, some of you picked Paul Worrilow instead!

All joking aside, I am furious with this situation. I'm not mad I made the call, because 2-3-4 years down the line this may be genius. I'm not mad at being wrong (so far), as I am scratching my head on what the heck the 49ers were thinking last year. They ran McDonald on several TE drags in the preseason, and they'd flip his a little short pass and he'd go berserk. I thought that would be a bread & butter play in the regular season...they barely ran it. Instead, they watched Colin Kaepernick go down in flames with his lower completion percentage ways down-field. This so would have helped CK's efficiency, and soften up the defenses...nope.

Last year Michael Crabtree was hurt, and they pretty much had just Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin the 1st-half of the year. They stuck with telegraphing to those guys, and left McDonald in to block mostly. 2013 was a wasted opportunity to progress a little with VMD.

I still love where this can go, but obviously Kaepernick has been exposed as a minor fraud at QB...not a radical passer, solid, but not great; and low volume. Then, the 49ers brought in a thousand more offensive skill players to crowd the limited targets being dealt. Even if the 49ers amp up McDonald's targets, he won't ever become anything in this offense.

I thought this had 'next Gronk' possibilities, and I still do. I'll have to wait four years til' he hits free agency to see if I'm right, I guess. Sorry you wasted your late-round pick...that's what they're for.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#1b) TE Vance McDonald, San Francisco  

8/13/13 = No rookie looked better to me in watching Week-1 tape than McDonald. I may be getting too hysterical, but what I saw was Gronk-ish. I want to have McDonald in the top-10 as a talent, but I am slightly concerned that the 49ers are not going to provide huge passing numbers, and of course Vernon Davis is there. However, the move of Davis to working out with the WRs may be because of how great McDonald looks. The 49ers need receiving weapons. McDonald may be their 3rd-best option right now already.

--------------

Original Comments: We argued that McDonald was the 2nd-best TE in the 2013 NFL Draft class (while others continued to go crazy for Zach Ertz), but now the world seems to be coming around to our stance now. As much as our computer scouting models like McDonald as a multi-dimensional TE prospect, we did not like him for Fantasy Football purposes -- for the simple fact that he was now stuck behind Vernon Davis...in an offense that still is not high passing volume under Colin Kaepernick. We have to bump him up now for two reasons:

1 = We are taking all talented TEs up in the rankings a bit due to the supply & demand issues happening with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski issues.

2 = The talk of Vernon Davis moving to WR is made possible due to the talent of McDonald...and that's a good thing for McDonald/Fantasy Football.

I'll believe it all when I see it, but TE lottery tickets are worth their weight in gold right now...

 

 

 

 

#41) WR Margus Hunt, Cincinnati------------------------------

2014:  There is only one reason I keep him on the top-50 burner: 6'8"+, 275+ pounds, and runs a 4.5+ with 38 rep bench press strength. His passes batted strength is going to be insane, if he can ever mkae the lineup...which is a big 'if.'

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#36) DE/DT Margus Hunt, Cincinnati

What J.J. Watt gives you at DE, Hunt may give you a version of at DE/DT -- and if that Watt type of scoring is favorable in your FF system (passes-defended, sacks, blocked kicks/passes), then Hunt is very valuable...especially if he gets classified as a DE and a DT. He won't have a high tackle count, but he could have a lot of the other desirable FF stats.

 

 

 

***OK, I noticed this next section was clustered with all the great Safety prospects that hit last year. By virtue of how many there were, it lessens their value in a supply-demand sort of way. So here's where I think they are at in order, but you can make the list your own...they're all good.***

 

 

 

#42) SS Eric Reid, San Francisco------------------------------

2014: The physically biggest SS of the top SS prospects in 2013, and he delivered with 91 tackles and 4 INTs in 2013. He is definitely starting, and definitely very goo. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#40) SS Eric Reid, San Francisco

Like Matt Elam, Eric Reid lands in a great place, and will be expected to move into the starting lineup quickly. Reid is a physically big Safety at 6'1+, 210+ who should have a respectable amount of tackles quickly. He is a good-not-great player. Shamarko Thomas is far superior to us for FF, but Thomas landed in a tough place for quick impact in FF.

 

 

 

#43) SS Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans------------------------------

2014: You could take Vaccaro over Eric Reid (above), and not go wrong. 79 tackles and 1 INT in 14 starts last season, and the Saints-Defense with Rob Ryan gambling ways, could give Vaccaro a shot at 110+ tackles this year. I thought it would take longer for Vaccaro to get integrated into the defense...nope!

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#65) SS Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans  

 

 

 

#44) SS/FS Matt Elam, Baltimore------------------------------

2014: Stepped right in and made 77 tackles last year in 15 starts. He is a solid NFL Safety, and I like his upside to racking up a few more INTs and PDs.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#33) SS/FS Matt Elam, Baltimore

Elam is likely to start right away, and that makes him a very valuable rookie Safety. He was not our top rated safety, but he was close. Unlike our #1 safety prospect, Shamarko Thomas, Elam lands in a spot to start and make an impact right away. For that reason, he is our highest rated Dynasty Rookie Draft rookie Safety.

 

 

#45) SS/FS Shamarko Thomas, Pittsburgh------------------------------

2014: My favorite SS of the 2013 class, but is in a situation where playing time might not be assured in 2014, as it also was a fear 2013...and the fear was real.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#38) SS/FS Shamarko Thomas, Pittsburgh

Our top-rated safety for 2013, and a tackling-machine. Thomas is a hitter, and a great athlete. He is also a couple inches shorter than you'd prefer at safety. For FF purposes, Thomas will push 80+ tackles and may offer plenty of passes-defended as QBs challenge him on height. Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu are on their last legs...Thomas may play quickly part-time, before taking over for one of them in 2014.

 

 

 

#46) SS Jonathan Cyprien, Jacksonville------------------------------

2014: Not one of my favorite Safties from this class, but he is a decent player and has plenty of opportunity for output on Jacksonville. He had 102 tackles and 2 forced fumbles in 2013 in 15 starts. He'll start and accumulate again for sure.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#70) S Jonathan Cyprien, Jacksonville 

 

 

 

#47) RB Mike James, Tampa Bay------------------------------

2014: James is a talented, as we foretold last year. He made an instant difference when he got his shot upon the Doug Martin injury of 2013. Then James broke his ankle the game after his attention-grabbing 158 yards rushing against Seattle. I want to love James more, but the whole situation is Tampa Bay at RB is getting very crowded. You'll have to wait until his 2017 free agency season before this pays-off potentially...or if Doug Martin gets hurt again.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#29) RB Mike James, Tampa Bay

8/22/13 = A MUST for those looking for the Doug Martin handcuff. James has looked great, like a mini-me Martin. He is a runner with "pop" and is great in the receiving game. He is clearly better than Peyton Hillis.

----------------------

So LeGarrette Blount is gone, and someone has to be the Doug Martin handcuff -- and it will be Mike James. If you have Martin, James is a must -- he has a similar physical profile and measurables to Martin, but without the history of higher end on-field production. James did not have a 100+ yard rushing game in four-years at Miami, Fla. James has the right physical dimensions for NFL success, but his performance has been very weak. James is worth a look gambling on a Martin injury, and a priority if you already own Martin.

 

 

 

 

#48) QB E.J. Manuel, Buffalo------------------------------

2014: For the most part, I have no interest in E.J. Manuel...I think he could massive flop starting in 2014. However, any QB who starts and has running ability has windows of value for FF. My only interest in EJM is buying low and selling high/quick. I think he is going to be a failure in the NFL...I almost guarantee it.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#27) QB E.J. Manuel, Buffalo

8/13/13 = I thought he looked terrible in his opening week. We were shaky on him to begin with; all our fears were on display in his debut. His release and delivery could be fixed, but I'm not a "QBs can be fixed guy," they are good-great...or they aren't. I would have E.J. fall further, but the fact that he might start and be useful on matchups is worth something.

---------------------

I'm not an E.J. fan, but you have to start taking the mobile/read-option QBs seriously. Watching Syracuse tape ofRyan Nassib, I always wondered why they were running a read-option-ish system with Nassib -- who is afraid of Nassib running? Still, there was Nassib wasting time with fake hand-offs. Now I think I get it -- Doug Marrone is a closet read-option guy...more to the point I think he is more a Chip Kelly follower.

I don't think Manuel's mindset is as a runner. He does not possess the (timed) speed or (visual and statistical) elusiveness of a Russell WilsonCam Newton or Colin Kaepernick, but E.J. is fairly mobile. In Fantasy Football, you have to respect these read-option QBs in which the system can drive output higher than expected on pocket talent alone.

At a certain point you have to pinch your nose and grab Manuel depending upon the Dynasty Rookie Draft board. I think you do so more to hope & pray -- or better yet, trade him into the moment he is about to take over for Buffalo. E.J. has a value, but it is more as a flip...not an investment.

 

 

 

#49) DE Dion Jordan, Miami------------------------------

2014: Not a good debut from the #3 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft: 16 games, 26 tackles and 2.0 sacks. Starting 2014, he's already suspended for four games. I have to keep him on this list because of the physical measurables. He's kind of a 'buy low' guy right now...a gamble he gets things turned around with a new coaching staff in 2015 or 2016. 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#30) DE Dion Jordan, Miami

Analysts are profiling Jordan as more of a pure rush-end, but I saw (and the numbers back up) a DE that can bounce off blocks and pursue ballcarriers effectively. In fact, I thought he was a much better pursuit tackler, ball pursuer than a pass-rusher.

Jordan has high-end athleticism for a DE. He has the potential to be a multi-dimensional producer in sacks, passes-defended, and total tackles.

 

 

 

#50) WR Robert Woods, Buffalo------------------------------

2014: On a different team, Woods would rate a bit higher. On the Bills, stuck with E.J. Manuel, Woods is doomed as a mostly forgettable WR, who will be a 'flex' option during some BYE weeks...and that's it. Re-evaluate in 2016, when Manuel is moving on.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#25) WR Robert Woods, Buffalo

We are not super high on Woods, but we acknowledge that he is a capable WR...and he just landed in a great spot for FF. He has a fairly clear path to become the #2 WR, especially given he was (over)drafted so highly. There is risk thatT.J. Graham cuts into him in 2013. There is risk that UDFA Da'Rick Rogers forces his way into immediate time and relegates Woods to what Donald Jones was the last two seasons -- hot & cold...and more cold. Woods is good-not-great, and his team is suspect. The surrounding WR depth chart has some talent. I respect that he will play in 2013, but not likely as a high-impact player now...or ever.

 

 

 

#51) DT Chris Jones, New England------------------------------

2014:  Out of best position with NE. He is not a 3-4 NT, but had to play it some last year. He is not a great 3-4 DE either. I like him as a 4-3 DT. Not sure how much time he'll get there with a stacked Patriots team.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

2013:

#48) DT Chris Jones,Tampa Bay

I love Chris Jones as an NFL DT prospect. However, he is just a DT for FF purposes...and joins an already stout D-Line in Houston. He may not need to start right away. We think Jones can be a disruptor in the NFL. I wish Jones had wound up on a "4-3" defense instead of a primarily "3-4." As far as DTs go, he is one to consider late in a Dynasty Rookie Draft in a deep league.

 

**This next section is pretty straight-forward

 

#52) CB Micah Hyde, Green Bay  2013:  Not in top-100: CB Micah Hyde, Green Bay

#53) DT Lawrence Okoye, San Francisco  2013:  #49) DT Lawrence Okoye, San Francisco

#54) LB Arthur Brown, Baltimore  2013:  #51) LB Arthur Brown, Baltimore

#55) WR Terrence Williams, Dallas  2013: Would not take list: WR Terrence Williams, Dallas

#56) K Caleb Sturgis, Miami  2013:  #57) K Caleb Sturgis, Miami

#57) CB David Amerson, Washington   2013: #84) CB David Amerson, Washington  

#58) RB Michael Ford, Chicago  2013: #42) RB Michael Ford, Chicago

#59) WR Brice Butler, Oakland   2013: #35) WR Brice Butler, Oakland  

#60) RB Joseph Randle, Dallas   2013: #41) RB Joseph Randle, Dallas

#61) RB Michael Cox, NY Giants  2013:  #55) RB Michael Cox, NY Giants

#62) WR Kenny Stills, New Orleans  2013: #54) WR Kenny Stills, New Orleans

#63) QB Ryan Nassib, NY Giants  2013:  #92) QB Ryan Nassib, NY Giants

#64) WR Kenbrell Thompkins, New England   2013: #37) WR Kenbrell Thompkins, New England  

#65) RB Denard Robinson, Jacksonville   2013: #43) RB/WR Denard Robinson, Jacksonville

#66) SS T.J. McDonald, St. Louis  2013: Not in top-100) SS T.J. McDonald, St. Louis

#67) CB/FS Dwayne Gratz, Jacksonville  2013:  #80) CB/FS Dwayne Gratz, Jacksonville

#68) SS D.J. Swearinger, Houston  2013:  #73) SS D.J. Swearinger, Houston

#69) SS Earl Wolff, Philadelphia  2013:  #81) SS Earl Wolff, Philadelphia

#70) TE Levine Toilolo, Atlanta  2013:  #96) TE Levine Toilolo, Atlanta

#71) OLB Eric Martin, Cleveland   2013:  #72) OLB Eric Martin, Cleveland

#72) TE Chris Gragg, Buffalo  2013:  #47) TE Chris Gragg, Buffalo

#73) WR Ryan Spadola, Miami   2013:  #59) WR Ryan Spadola, NYJ 

#74) A.J. Klein, Carolina   2013:  Not in top-100: LB) A.J. Klein, Carolina

#75) RB Rex Burkhead, Cincinnati  2013:  Not in top-100: RB Rex Burkhead, Cincinnati

#76) WR Charles Johnson, Cleveland    2013:  #69) WR Charles Johnson, Cleveland

#77) QB Matt Scott, Jacksonville   2013:  #46) QB Matt Scott, Jacksonville

#78) RB Michael Hill, San Diego  2013: #74) RB Michael Hill, San Diego

#79) CB Jamar Taylor, Miami  2013: #61) CB Jamar Taylor, Miami

#80) WR Stedman Bailey, St. Louis  2013:  #44) WR Stedman Bailey, St. Louis

#81) QB Geno Smith, NY Jets   2013:  #45) QB Geno Smith, NY Jets  

#82) TE Nick Kasa, Oakland  2013:  #82) TE Nick Kasa, Oakland

#83) CB Jonathan Banks, Tampa Bay  2013:  #64) CB Jonathan Banks, Tampa Bay

#84) RB Theo Riddick, Detroit   2013:  Not in top-100) RB Theo Riddick, Detroit

#85) LB Kevin Minter, Arizona  2013:   Not in top-100) LB Kevin Minter, Arizona

#86) CB Darius Slay, Detroit    2013: #89) CB Darius Slay, Detroit

#87) DT Star Lotulelei, Carolina  2013:  Not in top-100: DT Star Lotulelei, Carolina

#88) TE Zach Sudfeld, New England  2013:   #56) TE Zach Sudfeld, New England

#89) CB B.W. Webb, Dallas  2013:    Not in top-100)CB B.W. Webb, Dallas

#90) DE Damontre Moore, NY Giants   2013:   #66) DE Damontre Moore, NY Giants

#91) K Dustin Hopkins, Buffalo 2013:  #60) K Dustin Hopkins, Buffalo

#92) DT Kawann Short, Carolina  2013:    Not in top-100) DT Kawann Short, Carolina

#93) LB Sio Moore, Oakland  2013: Not in top-100) LB Sio Moore, Oakland

#94) DT Brandon Williams, Baltimore  2013:   Not in top-100) DT Brandon Williams, Baltimore

#95) WR T.J. Moe, New England   2013:  #100) WR T.J. Moe, New England

#96) CB D.J. Hayden, Oakland  2013:  #95) CB D.J. Hayden, Oakland

#97) TE Joseph Fauria, Detroit  2013: #101) TE Joseph Fauria, Detroit

#98) SS Cooper Taylor, NY Giants  2013:  #94) SS Cooper Taylor, NY Giants

#99) RB Kenjon Barner, Carolina   2013:  #53) RB Kenjon Barner, Carolina 

#100) WR Marquise Goodwin, Buffalo 2013:  #75) WR Marquise Goodwin, Buffalo

 

 

 

Noticeably absent from the top-50 (no particular order):

 

RB Stepfan Taylor, Arizona -- 2014:  He will never make it big in the NFL, or even small...   2013: We think Taylor is an abject bust RB. Very slow, a tweener in size. There is nothing here to love but a ton of carries he took at Stanford. It will be a different world in the NFL. Let's say we're only part right here -- Taylor was taken as a Mendenhall insurance policy, and 2014 starter when Mendy bolts again as a free agent. Taylor will only be viable (if he ever is) in 2014 -- so pass him up now, then circle back to trade for him (if you want) mid-season when no one cares as much.

 

DE Bjoern Werner, Indianapolis --  2014:  This guy was a top DE prospect for many early on in the 2013 draft process...yikes.     2013: Too slow to have a big statistical impact; likely to bust...especially in FF.

 

DT Sharrif Floyd, Minnesota -- 2014:   At one point, this was ESPN's #1 ranked prospect for the 2013 NFL Draft     2013: No comments, but full scouting report on CFM

 

LB Datone Jones, Green Bay --  2014:   I still don't see it.       2013: No comments

 

QB Matt Barkley, Philadelphia --  2014:  I'll just go ahead and mark us down 'correct' here.      2013: We don't think he works in the NFL, I'm not buying the Chip Kelly magical offense will unleash Barkley. I'm not wasting a pick to find out. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it later.

 

QB Landry Jones, Pittsburgh -- 2014:  Only a couple more seasons sitting behind Ben.     2013: We like him OK as a QB prospect, but it will be years before we even see him play (unless a freak injury to Big Ben).

 

ILB Manti Te'o, San Diego -- 2014:  'OK' player, but the hype/price was too much, and still is.     2013: We think he is mediocre, everyone else loves him. He'll go way before I would think to take him in this draft, so I'm not wasting space on the list.

 

RB Marcus Lattimore, San Francisco --  2014:  This was a silly move by SF from the get-go.     2013: We think Lattimore is overrated when healthy, plus has the injury risk, now joins a roster loaded with RB. How long to wait before I find out he was overrated? Go get LaMichael James while you are at it. Risky, a long wait, and crowded depth chart -- not interested.

 

RB Jawan Jamison, Washington --  2014: What's there to say?   2013: The last time I said a Washington RB did not move me it was Alfred Morris. Jamison in no way shape or form is like Morris. He'll never make it.

 

QB Tyler Bray, Kansas City -- 2014:  He'll be outta the league soon.    2013: Hated him pre-draft; dislike him more trying out for the Chiefs.

 

TE Gavin Escobar, Dallas -- 2014:  It's suspect that he will ever be more than a 'stiff' at TE.   2013: We think Escobar is mediocre at best. Because he has some national appeal as a prospect, and because he now plays for Dallas, he will get a look for many in Dynasty Drafts -- you can have him. James Hanna is a more interesting TE prospect.

 

QB Tyler Wilson, Oakland -- 2014:  Best scouting of 2013! Oakland, please hire me, but I'm not moving to CA.   2013: You have to absolutely be kidding me. This is a joke.

 

CB Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota --  2014:  I've seen nothing to change this opinion.      2013: Measured very un-agile, tape of his tackle ability was one of the worst I've seen this year. Too many negatives to even bother with here.

Table:

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>