Game Lines

College Football Metrics

Fantasy Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

2017 NFL Draft Day One Review Commentary (BONUS)

Air Date:
April 28, 2017

To get the latest comments posted hit the REFRESH or RELOAD of your webpage.

Forgive any typos, grammar, etc. We are pasting the post transcripts as fast as we get them…

 

**See new page for Round 2 and another page for Round 3!

 

Below is my FIRST-ROUND REVIEW….

 

32) Ryan Ramczyk, New Orleans

He may be very solid, but I saw a very slow OL on tape. Shockingly so. With no measurables from pre-draft workouts, relying on tape…I didn’t love what I saw. Struggled in pass protect against better opponents. I would have passed on him.

======================

31) Reuben Foster, San Fran

I can’t stand Foster, so I’m not objective. I saw a lazy linebacker just looking to make big hits, but mostly wandering around when they weren’t there.

======================

30) T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh

Love this pick…a top 10-15 overall prospect for us. Underrated in the shadow of brother J.J., unfairly.

=====================

29) David Njoku, Cleveland

I guess this means Seth DeValve isn’t a thing?? Gary Barnidge got shown the door. He’ll be in NYJ before long. Njoku is a promising TE prospect. I get it — young, athletic. All I can see when I think of him is his shaky hands. He just feels like Eric Ebron in my mind…can’t shake it. Njoku will be useful at worst, a nice starter at best.

========================

28) Taco Charlton, Dallas

I would have bet a lot that Jordan Willis, TJ Watt, or Obi Melifinwu was going here…so Taco seemed like a letdown. I like Charlton, but Dallas could have gone splashier.

========================

27) Tre’Davious White, Buffalo

The Bills had a gaping hole at CB and took the best available…if you don’t see Obi Melifonwu as a CB. I have no more to say than that. Slid pick.

======================

26) Takkarist McKinley, Atlanta

I’m not sure I’ll forget Takk going up after he was picked with a portrait of his grandmother and them literally losing his mine…dropping a G.D. and an F-bomb ‘in tribute’ (I guess) to his grandma.

The player and the pick. it’s OK here. I would have taken TJ Watt, but McKinley has promise.

======================

25) Jabrill Peppers, Cleveland

I’m not against this pick, but if I’m a terrible team that is rebuilding, with guys that were still on the board I feel like I settled for Peppers. Why not use draft stock to trade up for OJ Howard or Garett Bolles…critical positions/top prospects. Plenty of safeties out there. Don;t love the value. Peppers is fine as a player.

======================

24) Gareon Conley, Ohio State

I think Conley is a B-/C+ cover guy at best. He’s OK, but has the off-field stuff hanging over his head now. I wouldn’t have made this pick. I assume Conley is innocent, and thus will play…and be useful. ‘Star’ doesn’t seem possible.

======================

23) Evan Engram, NY Giants

I agree with the people thinking NYG got too cute here. I mean, EE will be a weapon to use as a distraction or gimmickry. Use his speed against covering LBs. It can work in small doses, but Engram is not a three-own TE. He’s a one-down big WR. However, he will draw mismatches so there is value here.

========================

 22) Charles Harris, Miami

Another great guy, but prospect I don’t love…but I’ve been up and down figuring out Missouri DEs lately. I didn’t think Markus Golden was anything but he’s been a stud in the pros. Harris has a limited upside, I think.

======================

21) Jarrad Davis, Detroit

I had such high hopes for Detroit for this pick. I thought the Lions had turned a corner with personnel decisions…but this was a huge letdown. A great kid, but mediocre-to-poor (in terms of top prospect) linebacker. A spot where they added depth via free agency. With all the possibilities…I don’t get this pick.

====================

20) Garett Bolles, Denver

Best OL in the draft, one of the best I’ve seen with my eyes on tape. Age (25) takes away from hsi overall scouting value…but youw ant someone who can block tomorrow — it’s Bolles.

Picks 19-20, were two top 5 prospects for us.

=======================

19) O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay

We had Howard #2 overall for this draft, so this is a steal for Tampa.

I don’t like Jameis Winston as a QB, but I think OJH will be OK for fantasy purposes. Winston will dump the ball off to a TE as 3-4 defenders chase Mike Evans around.

A great pick by Tampa. When I look at some of the guys taken before OJH it’s stunning.

======================

18) Adoree Jackson, Tennessee

The Titans are rolling. Arguably, the best day one of any team. WR was a huge need and they got arguably the top WR. CB was a massive need and they got arguably the best corner in the draft.

=======================

 17) Jonathan Allen, Washington

I don’t like Allen as a top prospect. Solid player but questions on his speed/agility. I think this pick could back to haunt the Redskins.

========================

16) Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore

With Adoree Jackson on the board Baltimore falls in love with another Alabama player. All the falling Alabama players in the draft and the Ravens can’t resist. The Ravens have gone from one of the smartest teams in the league to ‘just like the others’ with randomly good moves among a sea of head scratchers.

Go watch Humphrey get killed off the line by Taywan Taylor every time last year. Humphrey is an NFL athlete…with a questionable head/motivation.

======================

15) Malik Hooker, Indianapolis

The Colts need an offensive line, there’s only 2-3 decent OL prospects…there’s 10-15 safety prospects. So, of course, they take a safety. Hooker is fine, but medical red flags and a position that’s oversupplied. Silly pick, to me. Garett Bolles had to be the pick here…he wasn’t.

=====================

14) Derek Barnett, Philly

Nice kid. Solid player…more ‘C’ than ‘A’. Not my favorite but I get the pick to fill a DE need.

======================

13) Haason Reddick, Arizona

The more I think about this, the more I love it — not many great ILB prospects but Reddick MIGHT be one. Starts right away. Will be nice for fantasy IDP.

=====================

12) Deshaun Watson, Houston

Another pick I don’t get. Slow-armed, inaccurate spread QB joins stuff, meticulous offense requiring timing and arm speed. This is a disaster. Stock up Tom Savage…which wont matter because Bill O’Brien will be gone soon. he doesnt want to be there and they don’t want him there…or they wouldn’t have picked Watson…or Osweiler.

=====================

11) Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans

The Saints need CBs, and they got a solid one. He’ll start right away. He’s not the greatest but he’s pretty good.

======================

10) Patrick Mahomes, KC

Gunslinger, improvising QB is drafted to a scheme that requires meticulous restraint and decision-making. I kinda like Mahomes as a talent, but I don’t get this fit at all…and to trade a bunch for it…I don’t get it.

Alex Smith stays QB until 2018, and then we’ll see if Mahomes has changed by then. I’d bet against it. This is a two-year waste of a roster spot on a win-now team.

======================

 9) John Ross, Cincinnati

Marvin Jones was a really fast WR, so was Mohammed Sanu…they didn’t star in the Cincy offense with Andy Dalton. Tyler Boyd flopped last season. Ross would have to be super special to break this trend.

Cincy thinking their offensive issues needed a WR solution, and not O-Line work…I don’t get.

=======================

8) Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

A player taken that everyone loves, but absolutely does not fit the situation. Cam Newton has not been a check down to an RB quarterback. They have a talented RB in JStew. Cam steals touches, especially around the goal line. The wrong guy…kills his fantasy value.

I fully expect fantasy analysts to push McCaffrey as ‘OK’ or ‘great’ for Carolina because they have loved McCaffrey. The situation requires a ‘turn’ on McCaffrey for fantasy, sadly. At minimum, skepticism.

=======================

7) Mike Williams, LA Chargers

Definitely up for the worst, stupidest pick of the first-round. A Laquon Treadwell like athlete — better hands, but not a top 10 overall prospect.

Williams will be forced into the lineup but will struggle to find targets with Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams around. It really makes no sense for the Chargers.

======================

6) Jamal Adams, NY Jets

I think Adams is wildly overrated…and he plays a position that the top guys are not making big money, by comparison. The Jets need difference-makers…and walk away with a sloppy safety.

Highlight reels of him with great closing speed are overdone…because he overruns plays and doesnt have a ton of tackle output to back it up. Not the numbers of an elite top 6 in the draft safeety.

===================

5) Corey Davis, Tennessee

I didn’t fathom a WR from a MAC school, who was not a freakish size, who never worked out pre-draft would go top 5 in the NFL Draft. I’m even more stunned that three WRs went in the first 9 picks.

WRs are the second most spent on position among the stars — more than OTs, DEs, etc. Only top QBs are ahead of top WRs in payroll (way ahead).

You have to like Davis here. A 1-2 punch with Rishard Matthews. The Titans are set up for success this season.

============================

4) Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

Great landing spot. Weak O-Line and QB makes me pause that 2017 could be a Todd Gurley event. But the Jags could nab Davis Webb on Friday and start to change history.

Unless D’Onta Foreman or Jeremy McNichols lads as the primary RB in Green Bay…I don’t know if there will be any challengers to the throne for Fournette as the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts.

Jacksonville is a QB away from legitimacy.

=========================

3) Solomon Thomas, San Francisco

I like Solomon Thomas a 3-4 DE or as a sweet move to 4-3 DT…I have a feeling the 49ers will make him a 4-3 DE and kinda put a damper on his upside. Can you imagine Solomon Thomas and DeForest Buckner as 4-3 DTs together? The problem is…they’re probably going to be 4-3 DEs together…mediocre ones.

==========================

2) Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago — As ‘typical’ as the Browns picking Garrett was, the ‘untypical’ happened with the Bears making a bold move for Trubisky. At first, I had the silly 2017 fan reaction — “What are they doing, they just spent on Mike Glennon?” Then I realized…this is brilliant.

In a world where QB is everything, this was genius. If I were the Bears’ GM — I would have done the same. You only get so many chances at an elite QB. Even if you’re wrong…you have to take a shot when it’s in your grasp.

What a perfect set of circumstances. The Browns need a QB…but get media pressured into Myles Garrett. The 49ers need a QB, but have a soap opera love affair with Kirk Cousins. And they will sign him in 2018. The door opened for the Bears and they went through it. Brilliant.

Cameron Meredith either has Glennon or Trubisky now and later. Jordan Howard cannot be stacked with nice QB play. The Bears have a solid O-Line. I don’t know if/how John Fox will Fox this up…but he has a tool chest full of tools. If he can build a defense…with later round picks then the Bears are on the come.

I would sit Trubisky for 2017, unless it became obvious he is the man. A year behind Glennon would be perfect for him.

=========================

1) Myles Garrett, Cleveland — I figured as much. I had some hope the Browns might take Trubisky at #1, but whenever I think about what an NFL team is going to do…I have to remind myself that they will do they typical, and the ‘typical’ is what the media is driving.

I think the Browns had plans to draft Garrett and then make a move to pick up Trubisky. They either played it too cute or thought the 49ers were bluffing. Actually, we can’t rule out that the Browns just weren’t interested…because they could have easily topped the Bears offer. Unless, the 49ers were locked in on Solomon Thomas — in which case only a deal with Chicago made sense.

Either way…the Browns have another DE to go with Ogbah and Nassib, and no quarterback…and thus, no real hope in the foreseeable future.

I assume Nassib will be pushed to add weight and move to DT, for those of you in an IDP where DT matters…Nassib is a bit of a sleeper now.

 

Table:

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>