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2018 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (Five Experts Picking with Commentary) *#2.01-2.02

Air Date:
April 1, 2018

Five experts mock drafting the rookie draft, pre-NFL Draft…so it’s a bit flying-blind on their landing spots, but we wanted to show you what some experts were thinking at this stage of the draft studies.

We’ll release a few picks each day as they are made, and the commentary is organized to be published. The draft is going on, a slow draft, as I type. After each round we'll publish the whole thing as one post and then all of them as a post in the end, but for now pieces at a time.

*Informal chats via email, so forgive typos or grammar.

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Welcome to the first annual FFMetrics expert rookie mock draft. The participants and draft order is as follows: 

1.1 Jason Katz (Katz)

1.2 Myles Crowe (MC)

1.3 Ender (END)

1.4 Xavier Cromartie (XC)

1.5 RC Fischer (RC)

And keeping that order for 25 picks.

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This Post: Picks #2.01-2.02...

1.01 RB Saquon Barkley

1.02 RB Rashaad Penny

1.03 WR Courtland Sutton

1.04 QB Lamar Jackson

1.05 RB Royce Freeman

1.06 RB Derrius Guice

1.07 RB Ronald Jones

1.08 RB Sony Michel

1.09 WR DJ Moore

1.10 RB Josh Adams

1.11 RB Nick Chubb

1.12 WR DJ Chark

 

Katz: END. You're on the clock!

 

END: I may be off the mark here, but the comparisons that come to mind for D.J. Chark and Moore are Chris Conley and Torrey Smith respectively. Not saying they’ll have similar careers, just that’s who they remind me of from a profile perspective.  

I feel like we’re at the gambling point of the draft now. All the solid players that can theoretically acquire playing time almost regardless of landing spot are gone, so now is where I’m going to roll the dice on the highest possible upside regardless of chance at hitting it. I may regret this pick tomorrow afternoon after his pro day, but I’ll take Dallas Goedert. Of all the tight ends available this year I think he has the highest top end. Hurst is a solid professional but not a high end athlete. Andrews is ok. Goedert flashes the best hands and playing ability. Yes he’s just a glorified WR at this point, but if his numbers check in good tomorrow and he lands right there could be room for him in the massive hole that is the elite TE market. I’ve heard whispers the NFL isn’t that high on him, but I’m hoping at least one team believes. If Ebron can go #11...

 

RC: I almost took Dallas Goedert at 1.05...strictly banking on the 'what if' the Pro Day numbers are sweet to combine up with his receiving skills. He's the one TE that could change the dynasty rookie draft board...depending on the pro Day. 

He could also fall off the face of the earth if it's bad, but at this stage I'd rather gamble on an 'A' or 'F' player than grab a boring C+.

 

1.01 RB Saquon Barkley

1.02 RB Rashaad Penny

1.03 WR Courtland Sutton

1.04 QB Lamar Jackson

1.05 RB Royce Freeman

1.06 RB Derrius Guice

1.07 RB Ronald Jones

1.08 RB Sony Michel

1.09 WR DJ Moore

1.10 RB Josh Adams

1.11 RB Nick Chubb

1.12 WR DJ Chark

 

2.01 TE Dallas Goedert

 

Katz: XC. You’re on the clock!

 

XC: 2.02 QB Baker Mayfield 

Baker Mayfield is not only the best QB in this class; he is one of the all-time great QB prospects. He has been great since his freshman season. He dominates any stat that you can think of. Best accuracy. Best QB under pressure. Best play-action QB. 'They' tried to say that he lacks arm strength until he threw it 60 MPH at the Combine, indicating that he actually has one of the strongest arms we've ever seen. They still say he's too short. But he had only five batted passes in three years at Oklahoma. They say his height makes it harder to see downfield. Then how is he also the best deep passer, and how does he have so many deep passing yards? They will finally say, ok, he is unbelievable in any passing scenario, but that's because of the Oklahoma system. Except it's just not true. He was near the top in NFL-type throws in that system, and of course he was better than any other QB at making those NFL throws. His comparison is Drew Brees.

 

Katz: But on a serious note. I love Baker Mayfield. He is the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck and, like XC said, one of the best QB prospects of all time. To add to the things Mayfield is great at: #1 in QB Rating, #1 in Adjusted YPA, #1 in Adjusted completion percentage, #1 in completion percentage under pressure, PFF's top rated passer in deep balls, play action, and non play action. I apologize in advance if I offend anyone, but if you think Josh Allen is better than Baker Mayfield AT ANYTHING (arm strength doesn't count), I really have no idea what to say to you. I really can't figure out how Mayfield isn't the clear #1 overall pick. Like it isn't even close how much better he is than the other three QBs. I know RC has Mason Rudolph as his top rated QB and I do like Rudolph long term, but I think we agree that Rudolph is more of a long term project. He may have the higher ceiling, but we won't start to see it until 2020/2021. Mayfield is ready to step in right away and excel. And since the NFL is full of rampant stupidity, Mayfield may end up on a team far better than he should.

 

RC: I'm starting to buckle on the Mayfield v. Rudolph #1-2 for us. It may be Mayfield moving up. As I watch defensive player tape, and inevitably watching some of them vs. Oklahoma as prime matchups...I am constantly left stunned at how great Mayfield is. My system has minor knocks in it for height across the board because of the history of the position and height in relationship to success, not swayed because 1-2 made it through being smaller, but in this new era of passing game the height issue may just need to be erased. I also have a minor hit for his off-field stuff...it is a factor on a certain level. Not damning but just a small factor we take in...a risk considered. Height, off-field...none of which is anything to do with QB skill. If I take away small hits for height/size and off field -- Mayfield, as a QB talent -- he's the best. 

Rudolph is really good and mirrors more the prototypical NFL QB in size/off-field, and he's a talented QB, but Mayfield is better...and may be better because the NFL moves to more quick passing versus deep pocket drops. 

Where Mayfield winds up...what the O-C and HC tries to do with him will dictate a lot. Imagine Mayfield winds up in Jacksonville or with the ghost of Jeff Fisher. Will an NFL team allow Mayfield to be Mayfield...to run the Texas tech/Oklahoma offense? That's a BIG question for his success ahead. 

 

XC: People are all over the place on Goedert, for a variety of reasons. He's FCS. We don't have his numbers yet. Bad hammy. He has been compared to almost every TE, and so the comp I like best is Tyler Eifert. Because Eifert has been extremely volatile. He'll have a great week, he'll have a nothing week, he'll go out injured, and then the cycle repeats. Goedert could be the same kind of guy who drives you crazy.

 

END: And when he goes on a 4-5 week stretch where he catches 7 TD’s and makes a handful of highlight reel catches I’ll flip him for something more solid if there are problems underneath the surface.  

Love Mayfield clearly. I’ve had him at the top of my mock since before the Senior Bowl. He’s very much still in the conversation for the Browns. Dorsey is one of the rare GMs that will really consider him at #1. However, I’m beginning to wonder if he’s going to play nice with the rest of the scouts in Cleveland after he allegedly got kicked out of KC for exercising too much power on the Majomes trade and pass on Mayfield for Darnold. The Ron Wolf tree will like Mayfield. Other scouts will never take him over a guy that “looks” the part. As for Baker’s skills, I think he’s very good, insane leadership, literally Tebow level which is the only thing Tebow was good at. The man threw 2+ TD’s every one of his last 27 games! That said I passed him on my pick because I’m in the RC camp on QB’s. I think they are flooding the NFL to some degree and I can always find a good one. The best guys are generally near the top in fantasy scoring each year, but there can often be significant drops for no particular reason. We’ve seen Brady finish as QB10 before, and while that’s pretty good, only the top 2-3 QB’s each year give you an actual advantage. What was really smart by Xavier, in my opinion, was pairing Jackson and Mayfield. He’s nearly guaranteed to find some high level of fantasy success between those two and it gives him a measure of protection too. 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>