2019 Pre-NFL Draft Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
Obviously, I don’t know where any of the rookies are going to in the NFL, at this stage, even Kyler Murray (but I think I know) – but I wanted to start prepping our mindsets on what we’re most interested in right now.
So, for April, leading up to the actual draft, we’re going to do a slow Dynasty Rookie Draft (pre-NFL Draft) based on what we know at this point.
I’m going to reveal a pick per day, with commentary and if I change the order of any previously picked players based on new information, I’ll do that and note it that day as well. It’s 24 days until the draft, so we’re going for the top 24.
*Basing this on my valuations and not considering their trade value. This is me taking players assuming I’m stuck with them for the next 5+ years.
**Assuming more PPR, and 4pts per pass TD.
(1.01) QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma
He’s been my number one pretty much since scouting him in January. Part of his #1 status for me is the weaker Rookie Draft at the top, with no stud RBs per se, but most of it is – he’s a potential weapon of mass fantasy and NFL destruction. He’s a possible Patrick Mahomes arm talent, with Russell Wilson’s body/mechanics, and Michael Vick’s speed/elusiveness all rolled into one.
Murray is the only generational talent in this rookie draft, offensively. He’s a high-end new-era passer with amazing feet – the numbers he could put up for fantasy are mind-boggling.
He’s #1 here with a bullet if he goes to Arizona.
He’s #1 in most logical places he could land. I might have to re-think it if he lands poorly or he falls outside the top 10 in the NFL Draft, because he would then likely head to baseball.
I think he’s going to Arizona and thus he’s my sure #1, today.
(1.02) TE Noah Fant, Iowa
I thought about taking a player from the more universally coveted WR or RB positions here, but we have Fant graded as well as any player in this draft…the top of his position…but more critically – he’s way ahead of whatever TE prospect you might consider #2, at this stage. At WR or RB, I got several neat options to mull over.
The tight end economy is very depressed. Any shining hopefuls need to be valued higher than your initial gut feeling.
Also, imagine if Fant lands on New England (or Green Bay)? His value would rocket…and the masses will lose their mind in love with him.
There are a lot of dream landing spots for rookies, but Kyler to ARI and Fant to NE/GB are the kings of the mountain.
(1.03) WR Parris Campbell, Ohio State
I could have gone a lot of different ways here. Plenty of neat options still on the board, especially at WR. So, why Campbell?
He’s the one WR who doesn’t necessarily need a great offense/QB to activate him. Campbell has some ‘tall Tyreek’ aspects to him – 4.31 speed and has a well-rounded game as a receiver. He can be your deep ball guy…he can work underneath like a reliable hand (with 4.31 speed after the catch), he can take jet sweeps with his 4.31 speed.
He’s doing all this at 6’0”/205…he’s not a tiny and/or thin-framed speedster. He’s a ‘plus sized’ receiver running that 4.3 time. He’s made for fantasy goodness to happen quicker than just about every WR prospect int his draft. He may land really bad and another top guy land perfect and thus not be our top Dynasty WR rookie draft prospect, but until then…he’s our debatable #1 WR off the board.
(1.04) N’Keal Harry, Arizona State
I could go with one of my top RBs here, but my thought is, much like with Parris Campbell – the top wide receivers are more likely to get out of the gates quicker for FF impact than my top RBs (because my top RBs are not THEIR top RBs…so it might take a year+ for them to get a real chance). Harry has the potential to join a team and be their #1 WR by midseason as a rookie. By contrast, Alex Barnes may be lucky to get a carry by his rookie midseason.
Harry has #1 WR abilities…like a quarterback’s BFF type WR. There’s a lot of talent at WR in this draft, but not all are that ‘#1’ material…Harry has that #1 potential.
(1.05) DE Nick Bosa, Ohio State
I think Montez Sweat is the better fantasy/IDP prospect among DE prospects in 2019…as far as a stat producer. Sweat has super-sonic speed which will allow him to get to things (sacks, TFLs) at a potentially shocking rate, plus allowing him more chances at tackles in general, etc. His measurables are that surreal.
HOWEVER, Sweat is so quick an athlete that he might get drafted by a 3-4 scheme and put at outside linebacker and be labeled as a ‘LB’ for fantasy…whereas Bosa is 99.9% sure to be a 4-3 DE forever. Thus, I give the fantasy edge to Bosa.
Bosa is a great prospect too. I got no qualms with him…I just like that he comes with less risk of being labeled an ‘LB’ which kills pass rusher values in IDP in many leagues. If sacks matter for your IDP scoring…put Bosa down for 12+ every season the next 5+ years.
(1.06a) RB Darrell Henderson, Memphis
The more I study him the more I see the ‘star’ potential. I didn’t want to believe it at first, but all his crazy/terrific output metrics and measurables are more reality of his upside vs. ‘weak conference’.
Henderson is a three-down back in the NFL, and I think it will be him, not Miles Sanders, that the smart NFL teams target after the Alabama boys are taken too early. Alex Barnes may be a better all-around NFL prospect, but Henderson is very good+ too, and has more respect from analysts and scouts – so, Henderson more likely to find real work right away.
(1.06b) RB Alex Barnes, Kansas
I like both Darrell Henderson and Alex Barnes a lot…really like them. I like Barnes better as a personal choice if I were an NFL GM – he has it all…athleticism, power, size, hands, instinct. However, I really see some signs with Henderson AND he will get drafted higher and have more status/gravitas entering the league, my early estimate, so I nudge Henderson higher…but you could go with Barnes above him for sure.
Barnes is likely drafted to a team that has an established backfield and he’s going to have to fight and luck his way into quick playing time. He might be sparsely used the first year.
(1.08) WR Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
When you can get a 6’6” WR prospect who has some Calvin Johnson comps…you have to take it seriously for fantasy.
My fears with Butler are two-fold: (1) He lands in a weak offense or stacked WR depth chart, and (2) he gets pigeonholed as a ‘deep ball/tall target’ weapon and doesn’t see a ton of targets to become a team’s #1 WR…and becomes more of an occasional/unpredictable weapon -- not a QB’s best friend WR.
However, if he lands right…with his size/athleticism – it could be crazy.
(1.09) DE Montez Sweat, Miss State
A chance to lead the league in sacks as a rookie…and that’s some sweet IDP output. His speed is so off-the-charts that he’ll be able to close in on sacks all season long just by being so quick that even if he’s beaten by a blocker, he’s going to be able to chase down scrambling QBs, etc., like none/rare other.
I’d have him ahead of Nick Bosa if not for the minor fear a team might try to make Sweat a 3-4 OLB, and he gets classified as an ‘LB’ for IDP. I want him as a ‘DL’.
(1.10) WR D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
He’s not my favorite WR prospect in this draft, and he’ll be long gone by the time we get to pick 1.10, but at some point you want to take a chance on a some super-special measurables…and see if he pays off. I see all kinds of problems for Metcalf becoming an NFL consistent star, but maybe he’s just great at his one thing (go deep and be physical) – and that leads to great fantasy numbers, even for a short stretch of time.
There are a dozens of A.J. Brown’s running around…there are not many D.K. Metcalf’s built on this plant, and for that reason I’d grab him just to see if the lottery ticket paid off.
Metcalf is special built, for sure, but so are many of the top WR prospects…in various/different ways. I’d love to see a team just give Metcalf bubble screens and jet sweeps and dare DBs to try to tackle him.
In general, I bet against DJM living up to the hype…but, I also don’t ever think I will the Powerball, but when the jackpot hits ten-figures, I’m inclined to plunk down a few bucks…
(1.11) WR A.J. Brown, Ole Miss
Depending upon his landing spot, I could see AJB jumping into the top 5 here…or falling out if the top 12. He’s a unique WR prospect in this class for his ability to be that rugged slot/underneath WR at 20+ pounds. He’s built like a power running back but in the form of a wide receiver. He’s not the most talented WR prospect I’ve ever seen but he’s good enough…OK/good hands, OK/good athleticism, nice power.
…and he has draft momentum/status, so he’ll be drafted/expected to play right away more than a guy who I like in a similar-ish fashion – Stanley Morgan.
(1.12) LB Devin White, LSU
Not my favorite linebacker prospect of all time, but I know this:
(a) Everyone loves him, so he’s getting drafted to start right away/Week 1 of 2019.
(b) He has terrific measurables…he could be elite if he puts it all together.
…it’s just his tackle trends and patterns, and what I saw on tape…it troubles me.
(2.01) WR Andy Isabella, UMass
I could argue that technically, Andy Isabella is the single best all-around WR talent in the NFL Draft. But I also know, guys with his specific style go to the NFL to die. I want to love him more but he’s more likely doomed/held down at the next level than flourishes. What team has made Edelman/Welker-type WRs stars other than the Patriots/Brady?
If he goes to Dallas to replace Cole Beasley he dies if starvation (of targets). He goes to Arizona in Kingsbury’s offense with Kyler Murray…then I’m jumping up and down for joy.
At a certain point, you just take the extreme talent and cross your fingers.
(2.02) RB Damien Harris, Alabama
I like Harris’s all-around game better than Josh Jacobs. I realize Jacobs is good and will get the big initial push, but I think Harris could be a better fantasy option as a runner-receiver threat (especially in PPR).
Where Harris lands, obviously, will be huge. I am hoping he lands where he can get right into a split and be the receiving threat of a duo…Oakland, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, etc.
(2.03) RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama
You want to take Jacobs ahead of Damien Harris because of the theory “Jacobs is going to get the touches!”, then go right ahead. You’re not wrong thinking that – Jacobs is a solid running back prospect. I have Henderson-Barnes ahead of Jacobs, but that’s my long-term personal feeling…because I think there are signs of some ‘special’ in Barnes-Henderson.
I don’t deny that Jacobs may be the smartest way to play it but for his cost and the fact that I don’t see him nearly as special – I think his value will start hot and fade off. I am fully aware he will get umpteen chances, but can you tell me an Alabama running back, recently, that has long-term lived up to the hype? Eddie Lacy…Derrick Henry…Mark Ingram…T.J. Yeldon – all good but all of their peak values were their preseason/rookie draft periods. They were never as good/great as the rookie derangement syndrome hype.
Ultimately, I’ll be right about Jacobs, but THEY might be right in 2019 or 2020, for a moment or two. Over time, I’d rather take a shot on something more special and miss…then take mediocrity/good talent, and pay an extreme price, and eventually have a mediocre/good player for fantasy.
(2.04) RB Ty Johnson, Maryland
One of the best ‘homerun hitters’ in the 2019 NFL Draft among the RB prospects…a legit 4.3s runner at 215+ pounds. Some Pro Day scouts had him in the 4.2s.
High yards per carry at Maryland…and was stuck in a split backfield role there, but when he was given the main workload huge things happened. Definitely one of the most underrated players (not just RBs) in this draft. Also, a high-end kick returner. Built for fantasy goodness…