2019 Pre-NFL Draft Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (Adjusted for Day 1 of NFL Draft)
We got 32 picks in, so based on that and trying to interpret the mysteries to come…I am adjusting the pre-draft Dynasty Rookie Draft board for an FYI.
*Basing this on my valuations and not considering their trade value. This is me taking players assuming I’m stuck with them for the next 5+ years.
**Assuming more PPR, and 4pts per pass TD.
(1.01) QB Kyler Murray, Oklahoma/ARIZONA
4/26 Update = B-I-N-G-O
Org. Comments: He’s been my number one pretty much since scouting him in January. Part of his #1 status for me is the weaker Rookie Draft at the top, with no stud RBs per se, but most of it is – he’s a potential weapon of mass fantasy and NFL destruction. He’s a possible Patrick Mahomes arm talent, with Russell Wilson’s body/mechanics, and Michael Vick’s speed/elusiveness all rolled into one.
Murray is the only generational talent in this rookie draft, offensively. He’s a high-end new-era passer with amazing feet – the numbers he could put up for fantasy are mind-boggling.
He’s #1 here with a bullet if he goes to Arizona.
He’s #1 in most logical places he could land. I might have to re-think it if he lands poorly or he falls outside the top 10 in the NFL Draft, because he would then likely head to baseball.
I think he’s going to Arizona and thus he’s my sure #1, today.
(1.02) WR Parris Campbell, Ohio State (+1 spot)
I could have gone a lot of different ways here. Plenty of neat options still on the board, especially at WR. So, why Campbell?
He’s the one WR who doesn’t necessarily need a great offense/QB to activate him. Campbell has some ‘tall Tyreek’ aspects to him – 4.31 speed and has a well-rounded game as a receiver. He can be your deep ball guy…he can work underneath like a reliable hand (with 4.31 speed after the catch), he can take jet sweeps with his 4.31 speed.
He’s doing all this at 6’0”/205…he’s not a tiny and/or thin-framed speedster. He’s a ‘plus sized’ receiver running that 4.3 time. He’s made for fantasy goodness to happen quicker than just about every WR prospect int his draft. He may land really bad and another top guy land perfect and thus not be our top Dynasty WR rookie draft prospect, but until then…he’s our debatable #1 WR off the board.
(1.03) TE Noah Fant, Iowa/DENVER (-1 spot)
4/26 Update = Will Denver ever get a real QB that will make all these awesome offensive pieces hum? The answer to that questions lets you know how to value Fant. I don’t trust Elway and his QB maneuvers, so I’m disappointed with this landing spot…but not totally writing it off yet.
Org. Comments: I thought about taking a player from the more universally coveted WR or RB positions here, but we have Fant graded as well as any player in this draft…the top of his position…but more critically – he’s way ahead of whatever TE prospect you might consider #2, at this stage. At WR or RB, I got several neat options to mull over.
The tight end economy is very depressed. Any shining hopefuls need to be valued higher than your initial gut feeling.
Also, imagine if Fant lands on New England (or Green Bay)? His value would rocket…and the masses will lose their mind in love with him.
There are a lot of dream landing spots for rookies, but Kyler to ARI and Fant to NE/GB are the kings of the mountain.
(1.04) N’Keal Harry, Arizona State/NEW ENGLAND
4/26 Update = Great NFL landing spot, but ‘good’ fantasy landing spot. As Harry is rising, Brady will be aging. Maybe Harry moves to 1.03 if the Pats draft Jarrett Stidham…so we see more hope for the future high-end offense. But Stidham is no Brady.
Org. Comments: I could go with one of my top RBs here, but my thought is, much like with Parris Campbell – the top wide receivers are more likely to get out of the gates quicker for FF impact than my top RBs (because my top RBs are not THEIR top RBs…so it might take a year+ for them to get a real chance). Harry has the potential to join a team and be their #1 WR by midseason as a rookie. By contrast, Alex Barnes may be lucky to get a carry by his rookie midseason.
Harry has #1 WR abilities…like a quarterback’s BFF type WR. There’s a lot of talent at WR in this draft, but not all are that ‘#1’ material…Harry has that #1 potential.
(1.05) DE Nick Bosa, Ohio State/SAN FRANCISCO
I think Montez Sweat is the better fantasy/IDP prospect among DE prospects in 2019…as far as a stat producer. Sweat has super-sonic speed which will allow him to get to things (sacks, TFLs) at a potentially shocking rate, plus allowing him more chances at tackles in general, etc. His measurables are that surreal.
HOWEVER, Sweat is so quick an athlete that he might get drafted by a 3-4 scheme and put at outside linebacker and be labeled as a ‘LB’ for fantasy…whereas Bosa is 99.9% sure to be a 4-3 DE forever. Thus, I give the fantasy edge to Bosa.
Bosa is a great prospect too. I got no qualms with him…I just like that he comes with less risk of being labeled an ‘LB’ which kills pass rusher values in IDP in many leagues. If sacks matter for your IDP scoring…put Bosa down for 12+ every season the next 5+ years.
(1.06a) RB Darrell Henderson, Memphis
The more I study him the more I see the ‘star’ potential. I didn’t want to believe it at first, but all his crazy/terrific output metrics and measurables are more reality of his upside vs. ‘weak conference’.
Henderson is a three-down back in the NFL, and I think it will be him, not Miles Sanders, that the smart NFL teams target after the Alabama boys are taken too early. Alex Barnes may be a better all-around NFL prospect, but Henderson is very good+ too, and has more respect from analysts and scouts – so, Henderson more likely to find real work right away.
(1.06b) RB Alex Barnes, Kansas
I like both Darrell Henderson and Alex Barnes a lot…really like them. I like Barnes better as a personal choice if I were an NFL GM – he has it all…athleticism, power, size, hands, instinct. However, I really see some signs with Henderson AND he will get drafted higher and have more status/gravitas entering the league, my early estimate, so I nudge Henderson higher…but you could go with Barnes above him for sure.
Barnes is likely drafted to a team that has an established backfield and he’s going to have to fight and luck his way into quick playing time. He might be sparsely used the first year.
(1.08) WR Hakeem Butler, Iowa State
When you can get a 6’6” WR prospect who has some Calvin Johnson comps…you have to take it seriously for fantasy.
My fears with Butler are two-fold: (1) He lands in a weak offense or stacked WR depth chart, and (2) he gets pigeonholed as a ‘deep ball/tall target’ weapon and doesn’t see a ton of targets to become a team’s #1 WR…and becomes more of an occasional/unpredictable weapon -- not a QB’s best friend WR.
However, if he lands right…with his size/athleticism – it could be crazy.
(1.09) RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama/OAKLAND (+5 spots)
4/26 Update: Very good landing spot, but he’s still ‘good’ on a bad team with equally talented/more talented Chris Warren in the wings.
Org. Comments: You want to take Jacobs ahead of Damien Harris because of the theory “Jacobs is going to get the touches!”, then go right ahead. You’re not wrong thinking that – Jacobs is a solid running back prospect. I have Henderson-Barnes ahead of Jacobs, but that’s my long-term personal feeling…because I think there are signs of some ‘special’ in Barnes-Henderson.
I don’t deny that Jacobs may be the smartest way to play it but for his cost and the fact that I don’t see him nearly as special – I think his value will start hot and fade off. I am fully aware he will get umpteen chances, but can you tell me an Alabama running back, recently, that has long-term lived up to the hype? Eddie Lacy…Derrick Henry…Mark Ingram…T.J. Yeldon – all good but all of their peak values were their preseason/rookie draft periods. They were never as good/great as the rookie derangement syndrome hype.
Ultimately, I’ll be right about Jacobs, but THEY might be right in 2019 or 2020, for a moment or two. Over time, I’d rather take a shot on something more special and miss…then take mediocrity/good talent, and pay an extreme price, and eventually have a mediocre/good player for fantasy.
(1.10) WR D.K. Metcalf, Ole Miss
He’s not my favorite WR prospect in this draft, and he’ll be long gone by the time we get to pick 1.10, but at some point you want to take a chance on a some super-special measurables…and see if he pays off. I see all kinds of problems for Metcalf becoming an NFL consistent star, but maybe he’s just great at his one thing (go deep and be physical) – and that leads to great fantasy numbers, even for a short stretch of time.
There are a dozens of A.J. Brown’s running around…there are not many D.K. Metcalf’s built on this plant, and for that reason I’d grab him just to see if the lottery ticket paid off.
Metcalf is special built, for sure, but so are many of the top WR prospects…in various/different ways. I’d love to see a team just give Metcalf bubble screens and jet sweeps and dare DBs to try to tackle him.
In general, I bet against DKM living up to the hype…but, I also don’t ever think I win the Powerball, but when the jackpot hits ten-figures, I’m inclined to plunk down a few bucks…
(1.11) LB Devin Bush, Michigan/PITTSBURGH (+10 spots)
4/26 Update = Great landing spot…with a team who traded up hot for him. As good a landing spot as any rookie so far (besides Murray).
Org. Comments: I’m cool with Devin Bush as a player/prospect, but I’m not ‘wowed’ by his on-field play/tape. He’s good. He has upside. He’s an ‘A’ athleticism for the position. He’s ‘C’ in execution a lot of the time.
However, he’s going to be drafted 1st-round by a team that will be intent on jamming him into the starting lineup right away. He’s going to have fast value…and that’s useful or trade-able for other assets. He also has upside/athleticism to grow into a star linebacker.
(1.12) LB Devin White, LSU/TAMPA BAY
Not my favorite linebacker prospect of all time, but I know this:
(a) Everyone loves him, so he’s getting drafted to start right away/Week 1 of 2019.
(b) He has terrific measurables…he could be elite if he puts it all together.
…it’s just his tackle trends and patterns, and what I saw on tape…it troubles me.
(2.01) WR Andy Isabella, UMass
I could argue that technically, Andy Isabella is the single best all-around WR talent in the NFL Draft. But I also know, guys with his specific style go to the NFL to die. I want to love him more but he’s more likely doomed/held down at the next level than flourishes. What team has made Edelman/Welker-type WRs stars other than the Patriots/Brady?
If he goes to Dallas to replace Cole Beasley he dies if starvation (of targets). He goes to Arizona in Kingsbury’s offense with Kyler Murray…then I’m jumping up and down for joy.
At a certain point, you just take the extreme talent and cross your fingers.
(2.02) QB Tyree Jackson, Buffalo (+3 spots)
Possibly a bit of a surprise that I have him up this high on the list – but consider what we have here…another interesting runner-passer talent that could rack fantasy numbers/could be better for fantasy than the NFL.
I think Jackson is a possible top 10 rookie pick for me, depending upon where he lands/I think he’s an underrated QB arm talent and measured much faster at the Combine than I thought (4.59 40-time), and he stands 6’7” – he has instant star appeal if he lands in a place where he could overthrow the established starter easily.
His perfect spot – the Buffalo Bills…Buffalo, where he starred in college. Buffalo…who has, arguably, the worst starting QB in the NFL right now.
(2.03) WR A.J. Brown, Ole Miss (-4 spots)
Depending upon his landing spot, I could see AJB jumping into the top 5 here…or falling out if the top 12. He’s a unique WR prospect in this class for his ability to be that rugged slot/underneath WR at 20+ pounds. He’s built like a power running back but in the form of a wide receiver. He’s not the most talented WR prospect I’ve ever seen but he’s good enough…OK/good hands, OK/good athleticism, nice power.
…and he has draft momentum/status, so he’ll be drafted/expected to play right away more than a guy who I like in a similar-ish fashion – Stanley Morgan.
(2.04) WR Deebo Samuel, South Carolina (+2 spots)
I’m on the fence with Samuel…I know he’s solid/good but I’m not over the moon with him yet. He’s not going to be one of the first couple WRs taken, but he’ll go top 75 or so. He’s probably going to be drafted without an obvious expectation to start right away…but depending upon where he lands, he could start Week 1.
Samuel is reliable, but I question is fantasy appeal…not a game-breaker, just steady/good – in the right situation, he could be terrific for PPR. In the wrong situation, he could be very dull and forgettable. He’s got a lot of variability in where we’ll rank him post-draft compared to where we have him now. Could crack the top 12…could fall out of the top 25.
(2.05) RB Damien Harris, Alabama (-3 spots)
I like Harris’s all-around game better than Josh Jacobs. I realize Jacobs is good and will get the big initial push, but I think Harris could be a better fantasy option as a runner-receiver threat (especially in PPR).
Where Harris lands, obviously, will be huge. I am hoping he lands where he can get right into a split and be the receiving threat of a duo…Oakland, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, etc.
(2.06) RB Ty Johnson, Maryland (-2 spots)
One of the best ‘homerun hitters’ in the 2019 NFL Draft among the RB prospects…a legit 4.3s runner at 215+ pounds. Some Pro Day scouts had him in the 4.2s.
High yards per carry at Maryland…and was stuck in a split backfield role there, but when he was given the main workload huge things happened. Definitely one of the most underrated players (not just RBs) in this draft. Also, a high-end kick returner. Built for fantasy goodness…
(2.07) LB Andy Holcomb, UNC
I’m so impressed with Holcomb’s abilities – he reminds me of Blake Martinez, with a little Leighton Vander Esch + Joe Schobert mixed in. All guys that fly around the field…and all guys that put up tackle numbers/IDP numbers.
I think Holcomb can be better than Devin White for the NFL, but I know he will not get the chance to immediately like White will. This may take a year to emerge.
(2.08) DE Montez Sweat, Miss State/WASHINGTON (-11 spots)
4/26 Update = Bad landing spot, looks like he’s a 3-4 OLB…and that’s a hit for a lot of IDPers who use the DL-LB-DB classifications…Sweat will be lost among the ILB’s who rack tackles for better IDP scoring.
Org. Comments: A chance to lead the league in sacks as a rookie…and that’s some sweet IDP output. His speed is so off-the-charts that he’ll be able to close in on sacks all season long just by being so quick that even if he’s beaten by a blocker, he’s going to be able to chase down scrambling QBs, etc., like none/rare other.
I’d have him ahead of Nick Bosa if not for the minor fear a team might try to make Sweat a 3-4 OLB, and he gets classified as an ‘LB’ for IDP. I want him as a ‘DL’.
-- We’re starting to ‘reach’ from here on in… --
(2.09) RB Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
He’s one of my favorite RB prospects that I’ve visually scouted all year, but then I had to temper everything down when his NFL Combine agility times were awful. The measurables and the tape, on his movement skills, don’t compute…but I cannot just ignore the facts/data for what my heart wants.
I do believe he is a legit NFL runner…a possible shock three-down guy for a team in the future, although he’s likely to be part of a duo…which would be OK for PPR usage because he’s quality in the passing game.
There’s something here, I can sense it, but I have to discount it based on the measurables.
(2.10) RB Jeremy Cox, Old Dominion (+2 spots)
My next scouting report will be on Cox, a later entrant into my heart in this process.
Jeremy Cox answers the question – what if Josh Jacobs was an even tougher, more physical runner, a far better athlete, and had terrific hands?
Cox probably should be ranked around 2.07-2.09 here, but I’m turned on to him a little late. I’ll explain in his scouting report coming out in the next day or so. He’s at 2.12…I’d say I would move him to 2.07 tomorrow, but this mock draft ends today.
(2.11) WR Stanley Morgan, Nebraska (-1 spot)
I think Morgan is one of the most underrated/best sleeper ‘technician’ wide receivers…and he’s a pretty good athlete. If he could fall in with the right offense, he could shine quickly.
Morgan has a lot of upside, but he has to watch out that his mouth doesn’t get him in trouble…he’s a little cocky. I fear he will stagger around starting his pro career…between him not endearing to the coaches or just his lower draft stock – it might be a slow start for Morgan.
Morgan is one of the better sleeper/value prospects in this draft, like a Robert Woods-type reliable receiver -- but his path to quick opportunity is murky.
(2.12) RB Damarea Crockett, Missouri (+1 spot)
I just have a feeling here…
A feeling he’ll be a UDFA and never get a real shot and I’ll complain about it for a few years, but also a feeling that there is something legit here. When Crockett got the ball/touches, in the SEC working for an inferior team, he was wonderful…his numbers with 12+ carries in a game are stunning.
A nice, physical runner who exploded onto the scene as a freshman in the SEC and then kinda fizzled to the end due to injury and coaching staff. If he can just get a chance…
(3.01) WR Jamal Custis, Syracuse (-1 spot)
I just have a feeling on Custis, and I could be wrong…but we’re reaching here at this stage of the mock.
I’m just saying… Custis is a big body, huge ‘reach’ (height/arm length) guy…an excellent ‘go get it’ type WR, which is great for fantasy – a touchdown maker…in the right spot.
I see Custis with quick feet off the snap, better than most of the ‘bigger’ receivers, I see him making great catches on miss-targeted passes. There’s a lot of raw talent here…I think…I hope.
If there is a WR who could come out of nowhere to be a shock impact player and looks cool doing it – it could be Custis.