2020 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft – Using Only Rookies from 2019 or 2020 (including IDPs)
I’m going to conduct a dynasty rookie mock draft against myself…me making every pick, using my gut and scouting reports/player knowledge, etc., on the rookies from the 2019 NFL Draft and those from this current 2020 class.
I’m not consulting The Computer for its opinion on the values and marketplace, etc. It’s just me using my thoughts, scouting, desires.
For this exercise, I’m going to assume the 2020 guys landed ‘right/good’ for the most part. I’m trying to show where I think the real talent is, so I’m going to have to make favorable assumptions for the 2020 landing spots on top guys. On the other hand, if I don’t like a player in this draft, but I know they are quite valuable in general, I’m NOT taking them just to take them because I should take them (you’ll see what I mean in-draft because I will reference those players and comment). By the time I would consider Miles Sanders, for example, he’d be long gone, so I won’t bother with him or David Montgomery, etc.
My plan is: Releasing two picks a day on CFM, one morning and one at night (eastern time) and thus listing/picking the top 25+ over the next two weeks. I’m doing this to help show and discuss whether we should be accumulating rookie picks or selling them off. I hope this draft helps you (and me) start to figure just how valuable these picks are in 2020.
OK, here we go (and I reserve the right to change the order, move up/down a player if I get new info or the urge…and I’ll note if I do during this/as we go).
Starting with #1-2 posted same time/same (to)day, and then #3 tomorrow morning, #4 tomorrow night (approx.) and so on each day.
1) Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin (2020)
Let’s put Taylor being drafted #18 or #26 to Miami for the sake of this discussion…
Taylor would be drafted to be the lead dog RB in short order, but not necessarily Week 1 of 2020…because what teams even have a clear need/opening for a running back and would get Taylor round one? In this pretend case, Miami would start Jordan Howard with Taylor sprinkled in and then by Week 3-6, it would be ‘The Taylor show’ going forward.
You could argue Josh Jacobs as the top running back to take in a mock draft format like this because YOU KNOW he’s got a clear/unobstructed path Week 1 of 2020 (and 2021, etc.) more than any other RBs available for this draft.
Talent-wise Jacobs is really solid/good/very good for a solid team with his best attribute being ‘all the touches’…which is a good thing, but Taylor’s best attribute is that he might be the most gifted runner of the ball the league has seen in many years – better than Zeke or Gurley (because of knee issues), and even better than healthy David Johnson (as a runner, not as a receiver).
Human running backs are not created by God like Taylor very often (the size-speed package, instincts, balance, and pretty nice hands), and for that reason…plus, I’m sure he will be his team’s workhorse, wherever he lands…I have to say that ‘landing good’ Taylor is the best RB prospect of the past two years.
2) RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas (2019)
I don’t think Jacobs is the most talented RB on this list…and probably not in the top 3 for RB talent here, BUT he has something more assured than any RB on this list – his coach loves him and the organization is sold out to him. That fact could arguably make him the clear #1 on this list. He will get all the carries and most all the targets in 2020 (and beyond).
The only issue is – how good will the Raiders’ offense be? I think it will be pretty solid in 2020 and going forward. Jon Gruden has earned my FF respect after watching his offense last year.
3) QB Kyler Murray, Arizona (2019)
The one non-RB making waves in this group (I’m choosing from), making a case to be THE top guy on this list. I could make the case he should be. He’s gone from cute sleeper people started believing in as 2019 went on to now becoming an ‘it’ QB for fantasy 2020 – when you get the Matthew Berry push, you’re gold for valuations – he’s moving into range to become the #3 fantasy QB off boards this draft season (after Lamar-Mahomes).
If there is a QB who can stand a chance to compete (in FF numbers) with Mahomes-Lamar at the top, and not just hang with them but defeat them in 2020 – it’s Kyler, more so than Deshaun or Russell or Dak.
He’s getting closer and closer to fulfilling my prophecies from this time last year.
*Miles Sanders* This is where I’d take him if I were playing this mock draft more to reflect actual asset value/trade value, but I’m trying to stick more to ‘who do I believe in the most’. Since Sanders wouldn’t make my personal top 10 on that, I’m not going to bother putting him on the list because in reality he’d be long gone. He’s white hot for analysts and fans for 2020, but not for me – he might be the guy I would trade (if I owned) the most of all the 20-30 top fantasy guys ranked for 2020.
4a) RB Devin Singletary, Buffalo (2019)
I could make the case for Singletary at #1-2 overall here (if Taylor went to a bad landing spot). I would argue Singletary is as or more talented than Josh Jacobs. What is holding me back right now is – I need confirmation that Sean McDermott is as blindly committed to running Singletary into the ground as Jon Gruden is with Josh Jacobs.
I know McDermott loves him, I pushed that story all last preseason – what I fear in 2020/right now is McDermott will smartly add like a Carlos Hyde to take some pressure off Singletary and it will be smart for NFL purposes but hurts for fantasy touches for Singletary. If I knew McDermott wasn’t adding anything to fear for Singletary, I might have him higher.
4b) RB J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State (2020)
If Dobbins landed right, and Jonathan Taylor landed wrong – there could be a case for Dobbins as the #1 player on this list. The problem is – there is almost no place for the incoming RBs to land, where they can take over immediately.
Dobbins then has the issue that he might be the 3rd or 4th RB taken in the draft, making him prime for being brought in as an understudy for a year or two versus being a guy taken first (among RBs) with the expectation to start right away. Eventually, Dobbins will be a team’s main RB…it just may not be 2020, and that hurts his value some. Jonathan Taylor is much more likely to land in a great place and given the keys to the kingdom Week 1 than Dobbins is.
For this exercise, we’ll pretend he landed like with our pretend Jonathan Taylor scenario – lands with the Dolphins. By midseason, JKD would be the main guy.
6) QB Joe Burrow, LSU (2020)
You’re getting a great QB/passer talent who can actually run the ball pretty well. He’ll have an offense built around him and mostly be the player the team/organization rotates around. He’ll be able to call a lot of shots, have an offense he wants, etc.
Assuming he goes to Cincy, he’ll be down a lot in games – and thus throwing a lot and racking numbers, you’d think. He’s a super-talented passer who can move pretty well on the ground for 15-25+ rushing yards a game to add to his FF numbers each game.
The hidden value of Burrow down the road – Joe Brady (current Carolina O-C) becomes his head coach in 2021. If I knew that for sure, I might have Burrow top 3 here.
7) QB Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma (2020)
Yes, this high.
Furthermore, he might be a better fantasy QB than Joe Burrow…especially in 4pts per pass TD leagues. Jalen Hurts could be the next Lamar Jackson-like whirlwind in the NFL. Not the bouncy, nimble runner (but he can move)…but like a power running back playing QB (ran a 4.59 at the Combine at 6’1”/222)…like a sleek 220+ pound tough to tackle RB. Hurts is all muscle (highly unusual for a QB, a ‘freak’ if you will) and he’s as good/better than as a passer as Lamar Jackson from the pocket…same flaws as a passer, but probably better vision and comfort reading defenses than LJax, and gets the similar benefit of less pass rush to have more time to throw, for fear of his running.
If a team takes Hurts to come in and change their offense to the 21st century, you might rather have Hurts than Burrow. My fear is he is taken to be Lamar’s backup and he never sees the field (as a starter) for 4+ years.
8) A.J. Dillon, Boston College (2020)
Remember, this is based on these 2020 guys ‘landing good’. Dillon is a physical specimen…a potentially better than Derrick Henry as a Derrick Henry-type runner – but might have the same NFL issue…not great in the passing game, so it dings him a bit in PPR/fantasy.
I fear Dillon will be taken as a backup/future starter/part of a duo in reality, but for what we are doing here…let’s say he lands well. His athleticism is so off-the-charts, we have to have high interest (if he lands right).
*Now we get to a slew of WRs. Many guys I LOVE!! However, emphasis on the word ‘many’. There are too many great WR prospects that could claim ‘best in class’…and that’s why you don’t see any in the first 8 spots here, and I debated putting my top TE prospect in the #9 spot. From #8-9 to #19-20…whatever order I put them…they are all promising, great WR prospects that what team/offense/QB they play with and where they are in the pecking order for targets makes one better than the other – not a talent debate.*
9) WR Chase Claypool, Notre Dame (2020)
Why Claypool over all the other great WR options? First off, I had at least 3-4-5 names considered for the ‘top’ WR to take here. I didn’t start with Claypool here, but rather Diontae Johnson…and then I wondered about Devin Duvernay, also Denzel Mims, also where do the A.J. Brown-Deebo like WRs enter in?
It’s not that Claypool or ___ WR is the 9th best talent in this draft…it’s that there are so many WRs who could be the top guy that I didn’t feel the need to take one yet.
With that mindset, I debated whether to take my top tight end here…but I took Claypool on that TE vibe – the little extra juice of value for him based on the thought: ‘What if they DO make him some kind of tight end in the NFL?’. For that little extra bump/glimmer, I have Claypool here. I could also argue he should be #10 or #15 in the mock draft.
Claypool is such a rare physical specimen; he’s got the potential to be special.
10) WR Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh (2019)
Diontae is going to be a star…if he can stick with Ben, and if he takes over as the top target over JuJu. Delayed mini-camps, workouts will hurt his ability to connect better with Ben after Ben being out last season. Diontae is the new age Antonio Brown…he just needs to get fully unlocked. You saw the glimpses of it last year…and that was as a rookie with garbage QB play.
If you want Diontae to be the #1 WR in this mock…I won’t argue.
11) WR Denzel Mims, Baylor (2020)
If you wanted to put Mims as the top WR prospects in this mock draft, I wouldn’t argue. He’s built to have instant impact with his size, reach, and Julio Jones-like measurables. Because Chase Claypool is physically bigger, incredibly athletically gifted like Mims, and has some tight end whispers…I give the tiniest edge to Claypool over Mims among the 2020 ‘bigger’ WRs, but it’s close…and anyone liking Mims better would get no pushback from me.
12) WR Devin Duvernay, Texas (2020)
I flirted with Duvernay as the top WR here, then moved him to #2…then I kept inserting physically bigger 2020 WRs ahead of him. I love Duvernay’s skills and he could be the top fantasy WR option here, but he more than any of the top 2020 guys I have ahead of him (so far) needs to be in the right offense with the right QB…more so I should say, he needs to be just not be stuck with a stiff offense/passing game. He can be fine with mediocre offenses, I just don’t want him on the Chargers with Tyrod Taylor or with Josh Allen in Buffalo, etc. Where Claypool-Mims can be stars on those same teams as the ‘go get it’ option from these weaker QBs.
Duvernay has superstar potential and could/should be the top WR listed in this mock…but I have him here for now.
*48 hours after writing this blurb, I’ve watched/studied a couple CB prospects (Guidry, Fulton) who played Texas and thus got a chance to watch more Duvernay in action. All I can say is – man, is he a low-key great wide receiver. I want him to be the #1 WR on this list, but I can’t do it – my mind says, “No…others will have less hurdles to success early on.” My heart says, “Yes…you’ve discovered the DRD hidden gem of this draft class!”
13a) TE Noah Fant, Denver (2019)
In the battle of top TE prospects for this mock draft – I am going with Noah Fant as the top guy. His measurables are excellent. We started to see him breakthrough in performance later into the 2019 season. I’m not a full fan of Drew Lock or the Denver offense, but I know Fant’s skill set is high-end/elite, so I will make the call for him, but I really wrestled with him or Missouri freak 40-time/size combo TE Albert Okwuegbunam here.
13b) TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri (2020)
Could very well be the top TE in this mock, but I don’t know his true shuttle/three-cone times. His 40-time and all measurables are that of a ‘freak’ of nature…but the agility could be a bucket of cold water on this, or it could have made him top 10 in this mock. With the slightest difference, in my gut, I have Albert O. behind Fant.
True NFL landing spot means everything here. He goes to Cincinnati with Joe Burrow, then he might be top 10 here. He goes to Buffalo or the Chargers (as of this writing, with Tyrod) and ‘forget it’.
15) WR Parris Campbell, Indianapolis (2019)
Because he was hurt and missed several games in 2019, we’ve lost sight of a ‘freak’ WR. I mean…it was a whole year ago, how can we be expected to remember this? We’re too busy fawning over this year’s rookies to care half as much about last year’s rookie WRs.
No one his size (200+ pounds) should be able to run so fast (4.31). Had he had a clean 2019 preseason and 16-game regular season…he might have been revealed as the top WR in this mock draft, and no one would question it. His injuries hid him – we don’t know how good he really is (until we see him working more consistently with our own two eyes).
He should be healthy for 2020. He’s got a way better QB. Consider he is a receiving and rushing threat (jet sweeps) because of his 4.31 speed…a different version of Deebo-like receivers who can run the ball effectively as occasional tailbacks and jet sweeps as WRs. Campbell is way more dangerous with the ball in his hands – and he’s a better pure receiver than Deebo-A.J. Brown as well.
One of the hidden huge upside assets of 2020+ is Parris Campbell, I think. But, like you, I want to see it in the NFL more to be sure. But there is a lot of evidence pointing towards Parris as a star in waiting.
16) WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco (2019)
The better Deebo between Deebo Samuel and A.J. Brown is…Deebo Samuel.
Deebo is a tougher receiver, and tougher runner out of the backfield. Deebo is also a guy who saw way more targets than Brown when they started to breakout last season. Deebo is better on the field than AJB and should see way more touches in his offense compared to Brown in 2020. Deebo is talked about by his coach as ‘the guy’, the heart of the 49ers. A.J. Brown is discussed as ‘needing improvement’ by his group. Deebo has all the checkmarks in a comparison of the two.
17) WR Michael Pittman, USC (2020)
My first pass at putting this draft/rank together, I had Pittman at 20+. I love what I see with him, but I feared that of all the interesting fantasy twist WR options for this mock draft…he was the one that had the least twists. ‘Twists’ or ‘Superpowers’ = He’s not a 4.3+ burner. He’s not a guy taking handoffs or jet sweeps out of the backfield. He’s not as freakishly big or athletic (on paper) as Chase Claypool or Denzel Mims. Pittman is like a big Devin Duvernay – great at what they do but going to have to find a right fit for fantasy.
However…since the list first started, I was scouting some top CB prospects and happened to watch them vs. USC…and I once again got to marvel at how just damn good Pittman is. He may be THE best WR talent in the 2020 or this 2019-20 draft. He’s so smooth and so athletic and such a size. These WR creations in 2020 are insane.
Depending upon where Pittman lands…maybe he will be the best of the bunch. But he’s also very much tied to the QB/offense, like Duvernay…more than Duvernay. He needs a high-end passing game to really shine medium and deep. He winds up on the Rams (with Cooks gone) or the Chiefs and I’ll lose my mind. He lands on the Bills or the Chargers and he’s dead in the water for a bit.
Whatever happens, just know – he is an excellent WR prospect and the fact that Lamb-Jeudy-Jefferson are rated so far above him is criminal. You will not see Lamb or Jeudy or Jefferson on my mock top 25 (but I’ll address them in the end).
18) WR Preston Williams, Miami (2019)
Preston Williams is kind of the Michael Pittman of the 2019 draft…overlooked, and possibly the best pure WR talent of the group.
Everything I said about Pittman rings true here – great talent, but no uber-special skills other than ‘great at his job’ for fantasy (no jet sweeps, or bubble screen-mania or super tall red zone guy, etc). All that, plus he’s coming off an ACL and has had some off-field issues…so for all that he’s dropped down in this group a bit, but he also has the ‘could be the best of the group’ label in play.
*We just had eight of the last 10 picks as wide receivers…all eight of them COULD be the best of the bunch, for fantasy, that’s how good this group is. The next WRs listed, I don’t consider as strong to be the #1 among all WRs…but they are top 25 overall options…*
19) WR Marquise Brown, Baltimore (2019)
Hey…you want the #1 WR on the team that has Lamar Jackson doing crazy (good) things on offense? Marquise and Lamar are BFFs, and that matters. Marquise is perfect for Lamar’s style…go deep, catch DBs cheating up against the run and burn them deep.
Brown is a bit injury prone and a possible knucklehead – is his downside.
His upside is, he might be the best non-PPR WR on this list/mock. He’s going to catch 10+ TDs if he plays 16 games in 2020.
20) WR A.J. Brown, Tennessee (2019)
The weaker ‘Deebo’ WR option in this draft. He brings you ‘Deebo’-lite…3-4 catches a game, a carry here and there. Whereas Deebo will see 5+ catches and 2-3 carries a game. Brown has an upside if they use him more, but I don’t trust Mike Vrabel or Ryan Tannehill if I have all these other WR options (in this mock) to choose from.
21) ILB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma (2020)
The first IDP on the list – he’s going to start at ILB day one and potentially put up league leader type numbers for years. He’s better than ‘the Devin’s’ from last year’s draft. I think he’s going to be the Luke Kuechly replacement for Carolina (and they may trade down to do it).
22) DE Nick Bosa, San Francisco (2019)
A defensive lineman who can rack a decent amount of tackle counts to go along with leading the league in sacks. 9.0 sacks last year, which is really good but not league leading – but he did have 25 QB hits and 16 TFLs.
In three playoff games, 4.0 sacks, 5 QB hits.
Bosa is almost assured of being a ‘DL’ and not a ‘LB’…and that’s huge for many IDP structures.
Chase Young? We’ll see if he makes the cut in a bit.
23) DE Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas (2019)
Can do it all for IDP…
High-end pass rusher, but can play the run well, and is taller/nice reach to bat down passes for PDs.
From Week 5 on, Crosby became a starter. Taking his Week 5-17 numbers and extrapolating for a 16-game seasonal trend he would have posted: 48 tackles, 14.7 sacks, 21.3 TFLs, 5 PDs, 4 forced fumbles.
24) WR Terry McLaurin, Washington (2019)
A lot better than I expected, that’s for sure. The Redskins’ #1 WR already. The problem is = Dwayne Haskins. The problem after that is = Kyle Allen.The solution/upside = a real QB should be pursued in a year or two, but you’ll be flustered waiting. He’ll be fine with Haskins/Allen, but he could be so much better.
25) DE Chase Young, Ohio State (2020)
Might be a better pass rusher than Nick Bosa, but not sure a better tackler/stat accumulator otherwise. But let’s say they are equally good/promising – the issue you have, pre-Draft, with Young is…if drafted by Washington, he’s going to be classified as an OLB, right? That stings his value in many IDP leagues. Thus, he’s below Bosa. If he really does become an OLB…he wouldn’t be on this top 25. I think Washington is going to trade the pick, so there is hope.
26) RB Antonio Gibson, Memphis (2020)
My inclination is that he’s going to flop in the NFL…be a frustration – not polished enough as a runner, blocker, or receiver for the NFL to know what to do with him. BUT if he landed in the right place at the right time and got a shot, with his physical gifts – he could make a huge splash and be the man of the hour for a few weeks+ or so. Then you could use/trade whatever. The potential for quick heat/value exists here. This is a homerun or strikeout pick…more likely ‘the whiff’.
*COMING UP NEXT...'others of note considered for the top (+1) but didn't make it)
Names to mention otherwise (no particular order)…
WR D.K Metcalf – Pretty nice rookie season, better than I expected…but he’s a one-trick pony WR. Deep-ball guy…and that can work, or it can go dry. I don’t see an upside where he’s a WR1 stud over time.
WR Henry Ruggs – Similar to Metcalf…one trick pony, but he’s got more tricks up his sleeve because he can catch short and jet after the catch. Metcalf has issues catching passes short, and thus has a limited chance to catch and go. I don’t see Ruggs as having any chance as a future WR1 consistently. Two words…Mecole Hardman. Ruggs will be fine, just not a consistent star.
WR CeeDee Lamb – Could be fine, I just think he’s wildly overrated and a body not built for domination. Neither was DeAndre Hopkins, so it’s not a done deal…but I’m not a Lamb guy; never been. He’s good but so many other better WR specimens and technicians in this draft.
WR Justin Jefferson – I don’t get this at all. I think he falls to the 2nd/3rd-round and is just forgotten as a ‘good’/solid WR. Not special.
RB D’Andre Swift – I’m not a big fan, but I recognize that he is ‘OK’ and might get jammed all the touches for some team right away and be a decent producer. I just see too many other things I like in this draft; I don’t want to buy into a David Montgomery slap in the face (who I warned against last year).
QB Justin Herbert – He has some FF-hope because he has good feet to go with decent passing upside, but I think he’ll need a few years to settle in. He could be a better Josh Allen by surprise…that he runs a lot more in the pros.
QB Tua Tagovailoa – You might have a lost rookie season due to his hip, and then only to find out he’s nothing like he was billed. Very overrated…solid/good talent maybe but a lot of injury issues and risks.
SAF Grant Delpit – I’ve cooled on Delpit like many have. No thanks.
TE Colby Parkinson – I really like what I see here, but I know there is risk that he gets totally overlooked/ignored on draft status bias.
RB Darrynton Evans – He may jump into the top 25 when I do a further, deeper study on him coming up. The computer is a fan, but I have more work to do here.
WR N’Keal Harry – Really good WR talent, but no obvious great fantasy superpower to make numbers…especially when the QB situation is in flux. I’m still a fan, but there are TOO many other more interesting WR options right now. Harry is very good and will be a solid+ pro, but I fear it will be another year or two from now.
WR Bryan Edwards – The better N’Keal Harry, potentially. We just don’t have the full measurables to get super-excited, and I fear his draft stock falls and he gets buried on his new team.
LB Devin Bush – Has a real case to be in this top 25. Might be #26 trying to push into the main top 25.