Brought to you by - Total Football Advisors, LLC
I did a couple articles in our Dynasty Offseason/Best Ball (DO/BB) area theorizing on the current/future value of Kyler Murray. The first was my euphoric pitch for Murray's radical valuation to come, and then I did a follow up because I received some 'that will never happen' push back, which is good...but I further detailed my thinking post-Combine.
It was posted in the DO/BB area, but it was all about a current draft prospect, so I wanted to post them here as for those CFM subscribers who are not DO/BB subscribers as well (for shame). Here are both, in the order I published them...the second one a few days after the initial:
March 4th, 2019
Kyler Murray and Josh Rosen – How We Are Interpreting And Projecting/Ranking Them For Dynasty Now…
When I run the next Dynasty rankings, you’re going to see some radical changes with these two guys, Murray and Rosen. Everything is changing so fast in the NFL; we have to constantly move/adjust with it like the stock market.
Here’s a chain of my current beliefs, my pitch as to why the changes are occurring…
-- I have 80%+ confidence now that Kyler Murray is going to be drafted by the Arizona Cardinals. Drafted to start day-one.
-- I believe that Kyler Murray skipped everything at the NFL Combine because he knows he’s going #1 overall to Arizona already.
-- I have 99% confidence Kyler Murray is going #1 in the draft, whether to Arizona or NOT…and drafted to start day-one. He’s going to the NFL to start right away.
-- I think Kyler Murray has a chance to be Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Michael Vick all rolled into one – he can change football as we know it, as a weapon never seen before.
-- Murray + Kingsbury = the best situation Murray could ever wind up in for the NFL. Possibly, Murray is a better ‘have’ for fantasy than Mahomes. In 4pts per pass TD/no bonuses…that might be very real/true. Which means, Murray might be the single best player in fantasy…4pts per pass TD/no bonuses.
-- Josh Rosen will be traded, but possibly stays as a backup. I believe the Rosen-to-Washington rumors are real. Josh Rosen on Washington or Jacksonville or Miami…it doesn’t do a thing for me. I had Rosen puffed up because of Kingsbury. Now, he’s going to crash down hard in the next dynasty rankings.
-- This is a year to go for the 1.01 in dynasty rookie drafts to get Kyler Murray, to overpay for it -- unless you have Mahomes, or if 6pts per pass TD if you have Mayfield or Mahomes.
-- I suspect D.K. Metcalf will be fantasy analyst’s #1 ranked guy for the Dynasty Rookie Draft…maybe 1-2 with Josh Jacobs. Fantasy analysts are anti-QB, typically. If you want Murray, the 1.01 assures you. AND there will probably be enough doubt on Metcalf and Jacobs that someone will trade you that 1.01.
My approach, today, would be to talk up/hint Josh Jacobs, and assume the current 1.01 holder probably doesn’t have big excitement over Jacobs, so they might part with it. If it were last year with Saquon…no way you move to 1.01. This year, the door is open. Or wait until the Alabama Pro Day for Jacobs to ‘cool’ some (maybe).
This is a year to pay up/overpay for Murray…Patrick Mahomes-like gifts, in Russell Wilson’s body, with Michael Vick’s feet…going to an all-offense coach. What more could you ask for?
Perhaps, the 1.02 or 1.03 gets you Murray in your actual Dynasty Rookie Draft. If the draft held today…yes. When he’s drafted by Arizona…the hysteria is going to be crazy this summer. Making a move now while everything is cloudy may be your best time in the marketplace.
-- Kyler Murray rising to top status for fantasy means we might have Mahomes-Murray-Mayfield as the 1-2-3 best assets depending upon your scoring system. Does three guys at the same position dilute things/their values as a whole…or the QB position in general?
If you don’t have these three guys, you’re going to get blown out by them a bunch week-to-week. You need them to then complete your roster to compete with the other 1-2 QBs at the top you don’t have.
-- My next Dynasty rankings update will be on Monday…where the non-PPR ranks will be added to the options. Half-point PPR coming after that next week. You’ll see then just how highly we are going here. I can tell you Murray is going to be either our #2 or #3 ranked overall prospect, depending upon scoring system.
Why not #1? We’ve seen Mahomes as ‘god’…Murray might be better, because of the running, but we haven’t actually seen it in the pros…so that slight hold back. It’s very possible, Murray turns fantasy on it’s ear in 2019 and beyond.
March 9th, 2019
OK, so it looks like I did not get universal buy-in for my premise from a few days ago – where Kyler Murray goes #1 to Arizona and becomes a top 1-3 player selected in the 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft.
There were a lot of good points and objections raised, and I thought it would be more efficient if, instead of answering the same questions over and over individually, I just lay out the questions people have posed the most and address them.
I’d also note – I’m not guaranteeing that I am right, so you can ignore it if you wish, but I do believe I see the path where this happens (Murray top 3 DRD pick in leagues in summer 2019) and I think now is the time to move ahead of the masses figuring this out in a few weeks.
Here are some of the typical pushbacks and questions I am getting on my ‘Murray to Arizona, then top 3 DRD pick, so act now and move into position if you can’ theory…
Arizona is not drafting Murray, they’re sticking with Rosen (you idiot)…!!
Actually, I’m working on a deeper exploration piece on this subject with our own Ross Jacobs…as he had this same opinion – he doesn’t feel strongly that Arizona will punt Rosen for Murray. The piece should be out in a few days.
I don’t think it’s crazy to have the opinion that Arizona will hold Rosen and draft Quinnen/Bosa at the top and bypass Murray. But I believe the pieces of this puzzle are shifting in favor of Arizona drafting Murray, and trading off Rosen.
When I wrote my Kyler-mania piece a few days ago, encouraging everyone to get hysterical and consider making a bold move all the way to 1.01 for the shot at Murray, we were still in a stage where most mainstream analysts had immediately dismissed Murray because of height, etc., and they barely had him as a 1st-round NFL Draft pick. The day he exceeded all the height-weight expectations at the Combine, rumors started ramping up of Arizona drafting Kyler…but most of the mainstream was still sitting on their old rankings/ratings/mock drafts all Combine weekend. So, when I said Kyler-mania was coming at that point…it didn’t really ‘look’ like it was happening from the mainstream. But…
…what has happened since?
You see some analysts shooting Murray right to #1 in Mock Drafts while others have him in the top 10. They’re still in denial…they still haven’t bought into Murray as a talent, but they will. You see THEY wanted to coronate Dwayne Haskins, like last year they wanted to crown Sam Darnold…and Baker Mayfield was messing that up, so they attacked and denigrated him. Didn’t work, at least not on Cleveland’s brass. Same thing this year -- how dare Kyler ruin their narrative!!
One week later, we’ve gone from 2% of the mainstream believing Murray’s going #1…to now like 40-50% (and growing). My prediction on Murray, my call to arms…it was not based on that particular day/week. When it comes to NFL Draft prospects for Dynasty-Fantasy, my main job is to see the future, not call the current. One week later, I look a little smarter, no?
If Murray goes to Cincy…to Carolina…to Miami…to Washington…to Oakland – I’m not as excited. My premise is…the homerun of homerun fantasy plays comes with a simple formula coming true…
Kyler’s passer-runner skills, the best combo we’ve ever seen
Going to Arizona, where he would be totally unleashed and not restricted…like he would be if Steve Wilks was still the coach.
One of the greatest fantasy marriages of all-time. One that’s worth being a ‘Shark’ on before THEY all wake up to this in a few weeks/months.
If you don’t believe Murray is going to Arizona…don’t make a bold move. If you do make the bold move, and Murray goes to play baseball on May 1st, then trade your aquired 1.01 for other stuff.
My league has NEVER drafted a quarterback top five or barely ever in the 1st-round…they’ve NEVER drafted a QB highly, so why should I move to the 1.01 for Kyler Murray? Would 1.05 work?
Maybe you won’t have to go to 1.01…you could take that chance. Obvious statement: You won’t miss out on him if you have the 1.01.
But it runs deeper than that…
This 2019 dynasty rookie draft is going to be very unusual, if not unique. Usually, the masses have their heads firmly up the asses of the top RB prospects, but part of my theory on Murray going so high this year is because the running back class blows…like ‘generationally’ bad. Now, I understand that TODAY…EVERYBODY is ranking all the RBs and WRs at the top, per usual. Just like they all had Murray outside or barely inside the 1st-round of NFL Draft mocks a week ago and then a week later everything changed.
Right now, experts don’t like this running back class and they are praying/throwing darts at some to be the top guys early on like the lemmings they are…they don’t know anything more than ‘running backs above all’ for fantasy. Really, there’s only three RBs contending for the top five picks and the 1.01 in a DRD…Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Justice Hill.
Montgomery ran a 4.63 at the Combine, and any momentum he had died a little with that…no one really cares passionately about him. No one is going to get excited about Montgomery as this process goes on (neither will the NFL).
Justice Hill has some juice because he ran a 4.40 40-time, and he is in the running for the most interesting of this terrible RB class on that factoid alone.
Josh Jacobs is #1 by attrition…by not participating at the Combine and not risking being a disappointment like the rest of the group. Plus, he went to ‘Alabama’, so you know he has juice.
It’s really only Hill and Jacobs as threats for the top 5/#1 spot in a DRD. Jacobs has the most juice today, but I wonder -- where will he go and start immediately in the NFL/get everyone excited for fantasy? There are not many spots. He lands bad, and odds are he will (in an RBBC, etc.)…and he’s not a clear cut franchise/dynasty #1 RB. None of these 2019 RB prospects will be perceived as the Saquon, Ezekiel, Fournette, Gurley type no-brainer 1.01. Jacobs might get close, by attrition, if he lands great.
At WR, we have D.K. Metcalf, A.J. Brown, and N’Keal Harry as top five options, with Parris Campbell trying to force his way in there. Brown has minimal heat. Harry is legit. Metcalf is probably the 1.01 of most excitement today but give it a few weeks for him to get exposed by the media/scouts/draftniks and his NFL Draft stock will slide. I see Metcalf as the #1.01 more times than not, today, but it’s a very slippery slope he’s on. He’s not ‘obvious’ – he will be ripped apart on ‘hands’, routes limitations, and that neck injury. I could all see all three WRs mentioned going 1-2-3, and, although Harry is truly the best of the group of three I’m comparing…he has the least heat today. If Metcalf falls and Brown puts people to sleep…then Harry could pass them all. If Parris Campbell lands right, he might pop into the top 5…but I’m not sure he could make it all the way to 1.01.
Among the TE prospects, no one is taking T.J. Hockenson in the top five of the DRD unless they are ‘high’ and/or Iowa grads…and even then, they’d take Noah Fant over TJH. Fant could get into the top five, but I’ll buy ‘my league doesn’t take TEs highly’ arguments over the same argument with QBs. We’ve seen Noah Fant types before…O.J. Howard, Evan Engram…there won’t be the buzz for Fant he deserves. Unless Fant goes to New England with Gronk retired, Fant isn’t going top five in DRD.
So…what we have this year is Josh Jacobs (maybe Hill) and the WR-trio of Metcalf-Harry-Brown as contenders for 1.01 with Parris Campbell an outside shot if lands in Green Bay or Cleveland…and maybe not even then.
If Jacobs flops at his Pro Day and/or lands to be the split role guy or backup to Todd Gurley (as an example)…he’s not going 1.01.
Brown is going to fade just because there are so many guys like him…so much talent at WR this year. I cannot envision Brown as the consensus 1.01 unless he lands perfect, like in Green Bay.
If Metcalf gets ripped apart for being a weak WR skill set/phenom athlete and Brown doesn’t land right…it’s N’Keal Harry as the top guy option among WRs. Assuming Harry lands great too, but not many ‘great’ WR landing spots either.
And then there is Kyler Murray.
Josh Jacobs is tops by attrition at RB…but may not be drafted as a Week 1 starter. N’Keal Harry is really good but doesn’t have that full excitement like D.K. Metcalf does. If Murray is drafted by Arizona #1 and people start contemplating that he might be the most dynamic fantasy QB package we’ve ever seen, especially in 4pts per pass leagues, and then they consider how weak and boring everything else is at RB and how loaded things are at WR…if Metcalf’s excitement falls – people are going to wake up to Murray as the ‘generational FANTASY talent’ -- the only one in this draft…not Fant, not Jacobs, not Brown, not Harry. Metcalf could be a freak that entraps people at 1.01…but he’s going to take a lot of hits ahead in the media/scouting, you watch. There will be more doubt on Metcalf than Murray (if in Arizona).
Worst case…Murray is top five in the DRD this year. You can’t say, “MY LEAGUE NEVER…,” because your league has never seen a Kyler Murray appear…at the same time that there are NO running backs worth spit and so many wide receivers you can’t really rest on just one.
If I told you Murray was going top five in your league…then moving to 1.01 today makes more sense, to for sure get him…if you want him. Going to 1.02 or 1.03 or 1.05…nice, might work, but if you put all that energy in and fail, fall a pick short – you’ll hate yourself. I propose just paying the price…IF you think/he goes to Arizona because this could be off the charts.
And, because this draft is so weak at RB and clustered at WR…the 1.01 is definitely available. It isn’t a rookie draft where a Barkley-Gurley-Elliott are at the top and everyone is on board. In 2019, a QB prospect like Murray rising into the top five is more in play than ever – because while the super-smart fantasy analysts will NEVER rate Murray #1-2-3, they will move him top 10 and think they’re super bold doing so. ‘We the people’ tend to chase QBs so high that the analysts tsk-tsk us on it…so Murray could shock in your league. If analysts think they’re smart putting Murray in the top 10 for the DRD…that means ‘the people’ will feel comfortable going top five. When people really start to think about it – it will gain logic and momentum.
If you’re playing in some ‘experts’ fantasy league…don’t worry about trading up for Murray. They’re too dumb to do anything radical…they go by the book, even though they don’t understand it or know why it exists. In normal people leagues…Murray is going to capture the imagination. Not today…not fully…but it’s coming, I predict. The planets are just too much in alignment for it…
Quarterbacks are not worth what you’re saying they are, so I’m not moving up for Murray!
Did you have Patrick Mahomes last year? How’d he do for your fantasy scoring?
Did you not have Mahomes? I bet you spent a lot of last year wishing you did. The best fantasy asset in 2019…was a quarterback.
Running back output from year-to-year, is all over the place. A star one day, hurt the next, in an RBBC the next.
Wide receivers are more stable…but are dependent upon their QBs.
Tight ends, in general, kill fantasy teams with their lack of production, except from the tippy top TE guys…but all the TEs are enslaved to their QB as well.
The top QBs…the young ones/the great ones…they don’t seem to get hurt as often, or at all. They make O-Lines better by their presence. They don’t need a running game to help them (see: Mahomes and Damien Williams). They can make hay with any decent group of WRs (see: Baker 2018). The QBs are the most reliable position for fantasy, especially the young ones – and, the top guys, the elites…their scoring can go bonkers week-to-week. 300+ yard games every week, 2-3-4 passing TDs in almost every game. It’s the economically most ROI thing you can possess in fantasy, according to my models – the elite QBs.
On the other hand, the most replaceable stream-able fantasy assets are the RBs. C.J. Anderson can help you win your fantasy title…walking in off the street and becoming a star for a few weeks. Taylor Heinicke or Kyle Allen are not saving your season, when they get thrust into the action off an injury midseason.
You wanna drink the Kool-Aid on RBs and against QBs for fantasy…be my guest. When Kyler Murray, on Arizona, throws for 250 yards and 2+ TDs and rushes for 75+ yards in games week-to-week (25+ fantasy PPG on 4pts per pass TD leagues) on your opponent’s team…you’ll feel the power of what I’m saying. It will feel like opposing Mahomes for most of last season/2018.
Mahomes-Mayfield-Murray being so far above everyone in our dynasty rankings, all at the same position, does not dilute their value. Just like the first 4-6-10 picks in fantasy redrafts used to be all running backs and no one blinked…they only panicked for MORE RBs. You’ll need one of the holy elite QBs to compete with the teams that have the other elite QBs (unless you just corner the market).
You can wait to see if Murray lands in Arizona, but if he does – that will start the masses’ awakening process on the real fantasy impact in the universe. The perfect timing to acquire the 1.01 for Murray might be after the Alabama Pro Day, if Josh Jacobs is ‘human’ and as D.K. Metcalf gets his draft stock chopped away at…the 1.01 will seem like an overrated hot potato that ‘smart’ fantasy experts will start saying is ‘the year to sell it’.
All I know is – if Arizona drafts Murray, the fantasy world is going to change as we know it with a weapon never before seen. Not the best NFL QB…but the best fantasy QB is on the table with Murray + Kingsbury.