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Dynasty Rookie Draft 2013: Top-50+ Mock Draft Rankings 7.0 (includes IDP)

Air Date:
August 22, 2013

This is version 7.0, which contains a ranking juxtapositions for a couple prospects based on further review of the data, early info from camps, the preseason games, and a look at the 2013 schedule. The prospects that radically moved up or down will be noted.

Note that prospects we are not considering taking at all, and/or by the time we'd even consider them, they'd be long gone, are at the bottom of this top-100+ list.

 

Same disclaimer/preamble from Version 1.0:

We looked at this from a pure talent and situation standpoint. Because a player is ranked #7 here, would not mean we suggest taking him after the first six our gone. You'll have to figure when to take them -- we provide a little chatter on some of them for that. The only exception to the rule is our #2 prospect, and you will read why below.

Our list is with a generic, neutral mindset. For those who see their star RBs new handcuff on here, you will definitely have to consider taking/ranking those RBs higher than what we show.

We will update this mock about 5-10 times before opening day 2013.

Good luck to those in a draft this week.

 

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#1) TE Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati

 

8/11/13 = It's not that I am 100% in love with this pick, but when you consider all the factors, including the weakness in this rookie class, and the disappearing top Fantasy TE's (Gronk?, Pitta, Hernandez, Heath, maybe Vernon Davis goes to WR?) the TE marketplace value here is too good to ignore. There will be another million RBs and WRs in 2014, and that pop up out of nowhere within 2013. What is rare to have pop up -- elite TEs.

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6/30/13= Now is not the time to let any "who cares about TEs, they're all the same?" bias get in the way. This is simple economics 101. Aaron Hernandez is gone. Rob Gronkowski is in question. The Fantasy Football world is left with Jimmy Graham, and solid, but aging Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez. When you consider Drew Brees' age, and the effect it could have Graham...ditto for Gronk/Brady -- in two years, Eifert-Dalton may be the best QB/TE combo in Fantasy. The fact that the prior statement has some logic, means you have to take Eifert seriously in a Dynasty Draft.

There will be several more RBs falling from the sky next year, and every year. Speedy WRs grow on trees now. Young, tall, above-average athletic, great hands TEs paired with above-average (possible great/elite) QBs is vanishing. Is Eifert the best NFL prospect of 2013? No. Is he is the best, most rare for Fantasy Football? Possibly, yes.

I could make the argument that Eifert is the #1 prospect in this Dynasty Draft now. If my team was already stacked at RB, and Le'Veon Bell would be my 3rd-5th best RB on my team, and I didn't own Jimmy Graham -- I'd have to secure Eifert.

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5/17/13 = The more we look at the TE situation, the more attractive the Eifert outlook becomes. My broken record statement (for a reason) -- there are waves of RBs hitting every year. There are several RBs who people have forgotten from the 2011 and 2012 NFL Draft on top of the incoming rookies. RBs I can find no problem, top TEs paired with a good-great QB is a needle in a haystack. The news of Rob Gronkowski's pending 5th-arm surgery, plus a back surgery clinch it for me -- the already low on supply elite TE class, could be a lot lower without Gronk (and that may put a dent in Aaron Hernandez as well).

You can either take one of the several mediocre RB prospects in a sea of solid-good-great RB options. You can take any one of a slew of mediocre, speedy WRs. Alternatively, you can roll the dice on a possible elite TE -- Eifert.

Last year, we had Coby Fleener highly ranked in mock drafts early on too. However, we had weaker scouting grades on Fleener (unlike Eifert); we just wanted to gamble on the Fleener-Luck situation at a certain point out of TE desperation. Similar principle here, except Eifert is a better TE prospect than Fleener by far.

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Original comments: This is a tough one -- if Jermaine Gresham disappeared, Eifert is arguably a top-3 Dynasty Rookie Draft prospect. This draft, this entire league, is thin at taller-athletic-good hands receiving TEs. He is not as gifted as Gronk-Graham-Vernon Davis, but he is definitely in the next tier. On the right team, he is FF-gold. I'm not sure if this was the right team for it. Without Gresham, definitely we love him...as we love Dalton. With Gresham there; we are confused.

If you believe that Gresham is gone, one way or the other -- then move Eifert up the board. If you think this is a TE-duo, then move Eifert down. We lean to the notion that this had to be done as a "non-Gresham in the future" plan. This situation is not Gronk-Hernandez. Gresh-Eifert are too similar to co-exist.

I could make a case that Eifert is the clear #2 option overall in the Dynasty Rookie Draft. The Gresham-thing mucks this up a touch.

 

 

******Folks, the Dynasty Rookie Draft is all downhill from here******

No doubt, some of the following players will have breakout performances in 2013, and some even have the talent to be sustained NFL superstars. The problem is that their situations are not very clear clear exactly who the breakout performances will come from. Many of the top talents landed in horribly congested situations. Last year, you knewLuck, RG3, Richardson and maybe Martin had a clear path to full workload without issue (although we questioned Martin a bit on workload, and were wrong after mid-season). Only with Le'Veon Bell do we have a similar level of confidence in 2013 (but now he's gone!). There is no defensive player like Luke Kuechly or J.J. Watt in this draft. From a Dynasty Fantasy Football perspective -- this draft is awful...awfully complicated, and short on talent.

From this point on for this list, everything is debatable and has loads of FF risk and congestion. Players will ultimately emerge via injury, etc., but as of today, right now, after Eifert, there is nothing but chaos in this Dynasty Rookie Draft.

 

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#2) WR Tavon Austin, St. Louis (+1 spot)

Hear me out here. I haven't gone to the dark side...

You have to consider taking him here, even though you don't want him. He is going #1-2-3 overall in every Dynasty Rookie Draft. If I were picking #2-3 overall, I take him just to trade him...because there are so many questions after 1.01 pick.

Austin's value is so inflated from a fawning media it is embarrassing, but we have to recognize the value of that -- the trade value of that.

Austin is a B/C talent, who currently has A+ value. Taking him at 1.02 to flip him is probably the best move you can make in this draft after Bell at 1.01. Austin's a decent player -- he will have some Chris Givens or T.Y. Hiltonmoments -- big highlight plays, followed by a lot of so-so. He is a very big injury risk at his diminutive NFL size. I wouldn't hate having him on my FF team, but I'd rather trade him for a slightly lower pick Dynasty Rookie pick + Cecil Shorts...or use him in a deal with something else to help get a discounted (if they are) C.J. Spiller or Rob Gronkowski-type rare-commodity difference-maker.

If Austin were a NASDAQ stock -- we would say he is a "bubble" stock. He trades at a multiple way above his actual returns. Use that power for your own good! Love the bubble! Just make sure you get out before the bubble bursts.

 

 

 

#3) RB Eddie Lacy, Green Bay (+2 spots) 

8/22/13 = Moving up by default. Le'Veon Bell down. Montee Ball is showing to be more than human. This 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft really is weak.

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Org. Comments: In a battle of Packers rookie RBs -- the winner will be Lacy. He is the far superior physical construct for the NFL, over Johnathan Franklin. At minimum, Lacy will score 10+ TD a season even if he is a 9-12 carry a game RB, and not in on 3rd-down a bunch.

Aaron Rodgers provides a lot of scoring opportunity, and Lacy will be a beneficiary. Without Franklin, Lacy would be everyone's #1 pick with a bullet...but there is fear of Franklin. I'm not sure we should fear Franklin that much. Lacy makes much more sense as "the guy" at 230+ pounds, than Franklin does at 200+ pounds. I'm more apt to ignore Franklin, and Cedric Benson (who will likely not return), and go ahead with Lacy under a main-carry RB assumption. I do still have an irrational fear of Alex Green, however.

We're not ga-ga over Lacy as a talent, but he is good, and this is a potentially great situation.

 

 

#4) RB Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh (-3 spots)

8/22/13 = The Lisfranc/maybe Lisfranc injury potentially turns his entire FF 2013 into a wasted opportunity, and it may be something that lingers with him longer term. It wasn't that Bell was "special" for FF 2013, as much as he was really good in a great FF situation. Now he is a bit tainted in a world where mediocre/good RBs grow on trees. If he falls behind this year, he will be available at a growing discount every week of the 2013 season if you want to acquire him...no need to chase highly in a rookie draft now.

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Org. Comments: No RB in this draft enters a better situation than Bell. He was our #2 rated RB in this class, and an argument can certainly be made that he is the best in the class. He has the size-speed-power and pedigree to be a great NFL RB...and most importantly he has no real roster threat at this stage.

Isaac Redman is not a real NFL RB. Jonathan Dwyer is OK, but he is not in Bell's class. Baron Batch is useful, with some upside, but is smaller and not at all as gifted as Bell. If Bell were drafted by the Chiefs, he'd be maybe in the top 5-10 for a Dynasty Rookie Draft, but on the Steelers -- this is a marriage made in heaven.

I would expect to see 1,200+ yards and 10+ TDs easily with Bell in 2013, unless the Steelers poach a veteran RB at some point. I would think if they were going veteran, they would have done it by now. At this stage, it's full steam ahead with Bell.

 

 

 

 

#5) RB Latavius Murray, Oakland (-1 spot)

8/13/13 = The more and more I look at it -- the most rare species at RB in this draft are Le'Veon Bell and Latavius Murray. Bell is rated higher because of a completely clear path to the main touches, whereas Murray has DMC in the way. Assuming the Raiders flop again in 2013, then McFadden (the free agent) likely drifts away and the door is wide-open for Murray.

Eddie Lacy is having weight issues, and we have started to expose Montee Ball as flawed (and he looked it in Week-1 of the preseason) -- there is no high-end, elite RB to us except Latavius Murray. That being the case, I am becoming more interested in investing in Murray for the long-term boom or bust...plus, the draft price is most excellent as well (but not as good when we first trumpet blasted this to the world).

There is nothing sure here, just a pure gamble in a weak Dynasty Rookie Draft.

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Org. Comments: All that stands in the way of Murray becoming the breakout rookie star RB of 2013 is Darren McFadden --which means the odds are not too long that he will be the starter at some point in 2013; on the next DMC injury.

Even better, the Raiders cannot keep spending $9M+ a year on a low ROI RB (well, they can, they're the Raiders...). McFadden is an unrestricted free agent in 2014. This is it for him. The Raiders would be completely stupid to pay DMC $5-8M per year to stay in Oakland...which means at least a 50/50 chance that they will. If they do bail though, then the Raiders' full, clean starting RB in 2014 is the ultra-talented Latavius Murray.

This may require a year of waiting, but it may very well be worth it and then some. However, you cannot be shocked to see a DMC injury at any moment -- and thus the quicker rise of Murray.

Murray will not likely be among anyone's top-10 or even top 25-35+ Dynasty Rookies for 2013, so pace yourselves on where you should make this pick.

 

 

 

#6) RB Montee Ball, Denver

7/19/13 = We are getting more and more concerned that Montee Ball is just another Wisconsin-system pushed RB prospects. As we continue to look at it -- the more statistical odds are popping up to show that a "bust" could be on the table. It's a low percentage, but it is rising. I'm pro-Ball from what I have seen visually, but little bits of doubt are creeping on from the computer analysis.

 

5/17/13 = We're moving Ball ahead of Lacy, but it's very debatable. The 2013 schedule favors Denver -- we feel it is the best schedule of run-defenses for any RB to face in 2013. Whereas Lacy has a tougher schedule, and a Week-4 BYE (which we hate).

The more we look at it; the 2013 FF-output will be close between Lacy-Ball, but will likely shift to favor Ball from 2014+ on...as Denver washes through the other veteran RBs (on age and contract). You could argue either way on them, but today we shift Ball slightly ahead in the big picture.

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Original comments: The situation is more crowded in Denver with McGahee-Moreno-Hillman (and Fannin), but McGahee may be done, Moreno could be gone, and Hillman is a 3rd-down RB at best. Ball could be what Moreno was at the end of last year...whoever gets the Broncos job is a 1,200+ yard rusher with 10+ TDs in-waiting. Ball has a good chance to be that guy...unless Denver goes RBBC.

It's a murky situation, and the NFL keeps shifting to RBBCs, so not sure Ball is the next Alfred Morris-type producer, but there is a chance. If not 2013, then very good odds in 2014.

 

 

 

#7) RB Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati

I know, I am shocked he is this high for us as well. However, opportunity and surrounding circumstance mean everything in Fantasy Football. Bernard has one of the clearest paths to 15+ carries a game of any RB in the 2013 class. At worst, Gio and BJGE will be in a split role. BJGE is not so talented that he can't be nudged out. The problem is that Bernard Scott is more talented than either of them; except he is always hurt.

Logic says Bernard will split with BJGE. Logic says Gio will be used more because he was selected higher. My heart says, Bernard Scott is experienced and could make this a three-way mess at some point. Bernard is just not so ultra-talented that it is a given he takes this whole thing over. Logically, Gio is valued higher. My gut tells me to be afraid...very afraid of a let-down here.

At least one person in your league will likely have a Gio hard-on, so I would trade him into that pre-draft or post-draft. I'd only take Gio here with the thought of trading him. In many early Dynasty Rookie drafts, Bernard is going #1, 2 or 3 overall...so a crafty strategy really won't matter anyway; he'll be long gone.

 

 

#8) RB Knile Davis, Kansas City 

I want to have Davis a lot higher, but I cannot do it. Jamaal Charles is too much of a road block. There is no way Davis steals the job completely from Charles. However, he will be the power runner to complement Charles -- and he might have a nice value there; just not the off-the-charts value he would have had if he'd landed at STL instead ofZac Stacy.

Charles is not a free agent until 2016, so further bad news for Davis. However, Charles' body type lends itself to injury potential. If another Charles injury ever happens..."it's on."

If you own Charles, then Davis is probably #2-3 overall on your Dynasty Rookie Draft list. You have to have this handcuff, just like Rice/Pierce, Bradshaw/Wilson, Bush/Miller last year. Davis is an A+ talent in a D+ situation.

 

 

 

 

#9) RB Zac Stacy, St. Louis

8/13/13 = This is all situational gambling...because Stacy looks like every 2nd-string, solid RB that ever existed this decade. This is a pick that's good for a bout a year or two at best. The Rams will land a better RB, and Stacy will disappear.

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5/19/13 = Stacy has a better FF 2013 outlook, but is not as talented, nor has as favorable a 2014+ outlook versus Ball and Lacy. If it's all about FF 2013, Stacy has equal/better odds. If you have a longer-term Dynasty team building vision -- Ball or Lacy would be better RB prospects.

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Original comments: Zac Stacy is between the 5th and 10th best RB prospect in this class from a talent basis. However, for Fantasy, he has landed in the single best situation to start and take 250+ carries this season. He is a 4.5 40-time runner with great power (27 bench reps) and sensational agility. He has the physical profile of a "B" grade NFL RB. His situation may give him an "A" opportunity.

Do not fear Isaiah Pead -- as we told you that he was problematic in the 2012 preseason. Do not fear Daryl Richardson, as we implored you not to all 2012 regular season -- and you doubted, and then had to admit we were right in the end. The Rams have nothing but crap at RB on their roster coming into the 2013 NFL Draft.

Before you get giddy, because no one else will have Stacy this high, and you will smell an opportunity here that others don't...pause for a moment.

I see two downsides to this...

1) The Rams are a really good team; a playoff caliber team. They cannot, feasibly, go into the 2013 with this current RB roster. However, I thought they couldn't prefer Daryl Richardson to Steven Jackson the 3-4 weeks that they did last year, and cost themselves a shot at the playoffs. This Stacy ranking is as of today. If they sign Ahmad Bradshaw tomorrow, Stacy is going to fall quickly. If you believe that is going to happen, then you should consider him fringe top-10 overall for a Dynasty Rookie Draft.

2) UDFA RB Benny Cunningham is really good. The Rams scooped him up post draft. He is coming off injury, and is a UDFA which makes him a little bit of a longer shot. Cunningham could supplant Ahmad Bradshaw or Zac Stacy...or at least create some chaos.

Stacy is the Rams' best NFL-ready RB right now. A very good RB, who could have a great season due circumstance in 2013 -- like Alfred Morris did last year.

 

 

#10) WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston

This is chocolate and peanut butter finding each other. The Texans have been desperate for a legit WR offset toAndre Johnson. This is finally it; no more "maybe" or "might." Hopkins is a legit #2 WR. Matt Schaub will make use of his #2 -- now that he finally has a reasonable one. At times, Schaub made Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jonesmomentarily exciting. Hopkins is more the real deal. He is a "B+" talent, in a "A-" situation. You likely will not be let down here.

The reason Hopkins is not higher is that really good possession WRs are a dime-a-dozen. They ebb and flow with their situation. With the right QB, Andre Roberts is better for FF than Hopkins. Cecil Shorts is better than the two just mentioned...even with Blaine Gabbert.

It's not crazy for you to value Hopkins higher on this list if WR is more a need for you; and RB not so much. From our computer analysis, the current need to find RB talent outweighs that of WR talent (in general)...thus Hopkins ranked behind a cluster of RBs. Hopkins as the #3-5 overall on a Dynasty list is not crazy.

 

 

#11) WR Cordarrelle Patterson, Minnesota

We're not fans of Patterson -- overrated speed/agility/athleticism, and showed mostly poor results in college against SEC competition. He beat up on a couple patsies in 2012, and did mostly nothing when it mattered. We think he is a very overrated WR, with a high bust probability -- like a Michael Floyd and Jonathan Baldwin before him (late 1st-round, troubled WRs).

Best case, he flops around year-one, and maybe into year-two he becomes something -- why waste a pick this high for something that will be on sale from 50% off six months from now?

Patterson has shown flashes of something, so at a certain point the dice should be rolled. He is likely off the board within the first five picks, and I'm not willing to pay that price...unless it is to flip him.

Our computer did not like A.J. Green in 2011, as much as everyone else because he had signs of a "B-/C+" physique, and had "B+" college performance. We thought B-/C+ for the pros, not the A+ everyone else saw (we can debate what he really is later). Patterson is not like that -- I'm not saying this is a "B" player with "A" hype. The computer thinks this is a "C" player with a "D" head masquerading as an "A". It's bad Michael Floyd karma. I only make this pick if the alternatives that I want are available later, and/or I plan to flip him quick before he winds up with a DUI and destroys his value (like Justin Blackmon last year...and now again this year).

If you aren't in love with the alternatives at picks #3-5, and you decided to select Patterson at #3-4-5 to flip him...there is logic there. However, Patterson is not as "white hot" as Tavon Austin is right now. This "flip" theory may not be as simple/juicy as the Austin one.

 

 

#12) TE Vance McDonald, San Francisco

8/13/13 = No rookie looked better to me in watching Week-1 tape than McDonald. I may be getting too hysterical, but what I saw was Gronk-ish. I want to have McDonald in the top-10 as a talent, but I am slightly concerned that the 49ers are not going to provide huge passing numbers, and of course Vernon Davis is there. However, the move of Davis to working out with the WRs may be because of how great McDonald looks. The 49ers need receiving weapons. McDonald may be their 3rd-best option right now already.

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We argued that McDonald was the 2nd-best TE in the 2013 NFL Draft class (while others continued to go crazy forZach Ertz), but now the world seems to be coming around to our stance now. As much as our computer scouting models like McDonald as a multi-dimensional TE prospect, we did not like him for Fantasy Football purposes -- for the simple fact that he was now stuck behind Vernon Davis...in an offense that still is not high passing volume under Colin Kaepernick. We have to bump him up now for two reasons:

1 = We are taking all talented TEs up in the rankings a bit due to the supply & demand issues happening with Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski issues.

2 = The talk of Vernon Davis moving to WR is made possible due to the talent of McDonald...and that's a good thing for McDonald/Fantasy Football.

I'll believe it all when I see it, but TE lottery tickets are worth their weight in gold right now...

 

 

#13) WR Quinton Patton, San Francisco

8/22/13 = This gets suddenly more interesting with A.J. Jenkins traded. The best upside talent WR on the 49ers is potentially Patton, but is also the most inexperienced.

 

5/23/13 = The Michael Crabtree injury launches Patton higher up the charts. We have to use some caution here, as last year's 1st-round NFL Draft pick, A.J. Jenkins, is an equal/superior prospect...and Patton will fight Jenkins for playing time. There is potential for both to become starters as Jenkins is more a home-run hitter, and Patton is more like Crabtree -- a "good hands" WR. We like Patton better than Crabtree, but a split debate on whether he is better than Jenkins.

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Original Comments: Patton could be one-year away from being a 80+ catch a season WR. In 2013, with Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree in the mix, Patton is not likely to see a lot of time/targets. In 2014, we think both of those WRs (Boldin and Crab) will be gone through various means.

In one year, from what we know now, Patton will be the best "hands" WR on the dangerous, up-tempo 49ers offense. Patton has great hands and top on-field performance metrics, and has above-average athleticism. He could be the best WR on the 49ers in 2014. This is a one-year wait-and-see investment most likely.

 

 

 

#14) TE Luke Willson, Seattle

6/30/13 = For all the reasons mention above for Tyler Eifert, you have to consider the lesser-talented, but talented Willson the same way.

 

5/19/13 = The more we evaluate the 2013=2014 landscape, the more we keep coming up with how critical finding an elite FF TE is. Rob Gronkowski continues to have injury issues, and is striking fear into the hearts of his owners. A missing Gronk (again) may have a negative impact on Aaron Hernandez as well -- and thus two of the top-3 FF TEs would be in peril.

Willson is nowhere near the 14th best rookie talent in 2013, but for FF, and the growing FF desperation for TE hope/talent -- he is moving up the charts as a TE-lottery ticket.

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One of the more athletic TEs from the NFL Draft is going to join with one of the best QB/offenses in the NFL -- and it is a team that does not have a great receiving weapon TE as it is. This could wind up to be a crafty Fantasy Football play in the end...by circumstance. See our scouting report for more information.

There is an element of risk -- Willson has the option of playing professional baseball as well.

 

 

#15) RB Benny Cunningham, St. Louis

The X-factor. The big gamble. Mix one part great situation (see Zac Stacy recap above), and one part potential phenom RB (Cunningham) and you may get lightning in a bottle. The back-story is against lightning striking -- a RB coming off season-ending injury and going undrafted is not a recipe for instant FF success per se. This situation shows "hope." *Re-read his scouting report to get in the proper mindset.

The biggest reason for "hope" is that all the pre-draft Rams RBs stink, and Zac Stacy is just pretty good. None of them are that tall a mountain to climb. Cunningham may be a 3rd or 4th-round NFL Draft pick talent; hidden away by his mid-season 2012 injury. Cunningham has a legit chance to be the Rams' starting RB in 2013...potentially. The odds would be against it, but not crazy odds.

If something happens to Stacy, then this is really hot. If the Rams acquire a veteran RB, it will get colder (same with Stacy). No one in your Dynasty Rookie Draft will have Cunningham on their radar (today), unless they are a CFM client. You can save this for your last pick most likely. This is one part handcuff to Stacy, one part hope he beats out Stacy.

 

 

 

#16)  DE Ezekiel Ansah, Detroit

There are issues here -- inexperience, low production in college, possibly 5+ years older than he says/thinks. The upside to that is that he is the best physically-constructed DE in the draft, and just joined a D-Line with Ndamukong Suh. The attention Suh gets could make Ansah a double-digit sack producer quickly.

I like what I have seen on Ansah from tape -- chasing ballcarriers away from his side of the field, great effort, amazing physical gifts. The physical measurement data backs it up. The problem is that he had mediocre results in college. Take great measurables, and the cloud cover from Suh -- and he may be a defensive Rookie of the Year...whether he is 22 or 25 or 28 or however old he is.

 

 

*****From this point on, now we are really going to fall of the table. There is a lot of talent, but it has bigger question marks and/or has landed in "bad"/less-favorable places. There is much to gamble on, but it's just that -- a gamble (beyond the obvious gamble that all of this is already).*****

 

 

#17) ILB Alec Ogletree, St. Louis

Ogletree is a 100+ tackle-a-year guy instantly, if he has his head screwed on straight. He may be a 125-150+ tackle per-year guy as an ILB. St. Louis is developing a great defense, Ogletree is another log on the fire. There is risk that the fame, money, etc. could be a hindrance...he's had several off-field issues in college. An "A-/B+" talent, and a "D" character.

 

 

#18) OLB Jarvis Jones, Pittsburgh

Jarvis Jones has a talent for pressuring the QB, and making plays. His measurables say it's not possible in the NFL. My heart says the measurables may have been a false read -- he was just too good on tape. However, (almost) everything we do is based on the numbers...so we are kind of stuck. Do we throw out the data and trust our eyes (which is a very bad thing to do), or stick to the data? The performance metrics says "A", and the measurables say "D"...which kind of comes together with a lukewarm average of "B-/C+".

If I take the talent part of the equation, then I'd have to think about Jones as a top 10-12 pick overall for Dynasty Rookie Draft. perhaps the single best IDP there is. If I trust the measurables more, I steer clear.

I lean toward trusting the performance, and thus the tape. A player cannot be so good in the SEC, and simultaneously be so slow/weak/un-agile. However, I am hedged because of the negative measurables data. I'm an indecisive moderate here. Sorry.

 

 

#19) CB Dee Milliner, NY Jets

Take one part very good rookie CB who will start right away, and mix with a team that has a dreadful offense that will not sustain time of possession -- and it will equal a ton of throws at him 2013. If your scoring system favors passes-defended, then Milliner would project highly for FF this season. Milliner is a solid tackler and will give you decent tallies there as well (unlike Xavier Rhodes who absolutely will not give you tackle totals).

 

 

 

#20) OLB Jamie Collins, New England

8/13/13 = Collins was one of the highest rated players we had in the 2012 NFL Draft, but we weren't sure how fast he would become a starter. Based on his Week-1 performance, he may be starting opening day. Collins will get tackles, sacks, and PDs for you...he's a machine.

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Collins could have very interesting defensive statistical output right away in the NFL. Collins is one of the highest rated players we had in this draft (regardless of position). Collins is a great tackler, and a great athlete. He has played LB, rush-end, and Safety in college -- and can do a little of that in the NFL as well. He can push 100+ tackles and throw in some INTs and sacks to go with that. He is a unique athlete who may shock a lot of people with the statistical array he produces.

 

 

#21) WR Josh Boyce, New England

 

6/30/13 = Given the T.J. Moe injury, and the Aaron Hernandez situation, things are perking up for Boyce. The more we look at Boyce's metrics scouting profile, the more excited we are about him as a pure talent. Still, the Pats situation is so congested with talent, and quasi-talent at WR...it is hard to see a path to quick viability for Boyce.

 

5/9/13 = The more we look at what the Patriots are doing at both RB and WR, the more we feel that this whole Pats WR (and RB) situation will be nothing but Fantasy distress. Our computer makes a case for Boyce as the best WR prospect in this draft. Our computer also thinks Donald Jones was arguably the best "small WR" in the 2010 draft. We all know Danny Amendola is good. Julian Edelman is a talent. Michael Jenkins is decent. Undrafted WR T.J. Moe is crafty. Aaron Dobson is possible. The two TEs are sensational. The Pats just signed respectable ex-Titans WRLavelle Hawkins.

Josh Boyce has about ten rungs of a ladder to climb before he becomes "the man" for the Pats. More worrisome, I don't think there is "a man" for the Patriots. The Pats are going to come at you from all angles, and with a variety of weapons -- they will be even more unpredictable for NFL opponents than usual. They will be even more unbearable for Fantasy GMs who have any of their RBs or WRs. I love Boyce, but there are a lot hurdles here. Too many...

Original Comments: This NFL Draft pick flew right under the radar. We could make an argument that Boyce is the best overall WR in this draft, and he is going to one of the top passing teams of our lifetime...and to a team that just so happens to have some issues at WR depth. If Danny Amendola did not exist -- Boyce would be a top-10 Dynasty Rookie Draft rank. He is overall better, and a different style WR, than Aaron Dobson. Boyce is a similar/better version of what Donald Jones could become.

Because of the crowded talent pool in New England, Boyce has to be looked at with a little skepticism for FF. However, the talent is of a top-10 nature. This is probably more of an 1-2 year wait investment, than an instant return in 2013.

Amendola is often hurt, as is D. Jones. The path to relevance in 2013 isn't totally off the table, but a lot of "ifs" have to happen in order to get the quick impact. I love this player, and pick by the Pats, but for Dynasty it is a little bit more of a wait-and-see type of player.

 

 

 

#22) WR Aaron Dobson, New England

8/22/13 = The Patriots WR group of names is thinning out. Dobson looks like he as bulked up pretty well. He could be a James Jones type in this offense: Moderately talented, but much higher output due to the QB/offense.

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Original Comments: You will have one of two reactions here -- both are wrong.

1)  Some believe that Dobson is a star WR prospect, and that simply is not a clear-cut case. Dobson is a bit of a "tweener" -- not a massive WR at 6'2+ and 210, but not the profile of a crafty underneath/slot WR either. Good speed, weak agility, thin-framed, decent on-field output. There is no sign of "special" here as a prospect. A poor man'sBrandon Lloyd.

2)  ..."Well, if the Patriots took him, he must be pretty good."

Quick -- name the high impact WRs for the Patriots that were home-grown for (aka originally drafted by) New England?Deion Branch 2002 and Troy Brown in 2003 are the recent best...neither off the charts. Since Branch/Brown 10+ years ago -- Chad Jackson was the # 36 overall pick for them in 2006. There is also Julian Edelman, and most recently Taylor Price. Jackson-Edelman-Price highlight the Pats WR choices in recent years. Raise your hand if what you think of mid-major WR Aaron Dobson has a similar vibe to what you thought of mid-major WR Taylor Price before he flamed out?

I am not saying Dobson is not NFL-worthy, but be cautious of making the leap to potential superstar. The WR the Patriots drafted in 2013 who has superstar quality is Josh Boyce, not Dobson. The current depth chart is an issue -- Boyce is potentially good/great, so is Donald Jones, so is Julian Edelman, so is Danny AmendolaMichael Jenkinsis crafty, and similar. We know what Gronk-Hernandez are capable of.

You are not getting a #1 or #2 option here for Brady. You might not be getting a #6 option here. By the time Dobson is moved up the pecking order...Tom Brady might be 37+ years-old.

There is some logic here, but there is risk to consider -- enough risk to warrant considering Dobson as overvalued for a 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft today. I'd take Josh Boyce well ahead of Dobson, especially in a PPR.

 

 

 

#23) WR Robert Woods, Buffalo

We are not super high on Woods, but we acknowledge that he is a capable WR...and he just landed in a great spot for FF. He has a fairly clear path to become the #2 WR, especially given he was (over)drafted so highly. There is risk thatT.J. Graham cuts into him in 2013. There is risk that UDFA Da'Rick Rogers forces his way into immediate time and relegates Woods to what Donald Jones was the last two seasons -- hot & cold...and more cold. Woods is good-not-great, and his team is suspect. The surrounding WR depth chart has some talent. I respect that he will play in 2013, but not likely as a high-impact player now...or ever.

 

 

#24) RB Christine Michael, Seattle (-3 spots)

8/13/13 = We know he's ultra-talented, but we also know he can be an off-field issue. He looked great in the preseason Week-1, and Robert Turbin has missed a bunch of training camp.

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Michael is a top-5 talent in the Dynasty Rookie Draft, but landed in about the worst situation a rookie RB could land in. It is quite possible that Michael becomes an NFL star, so for that there is value for sure. However, the path to do so in Seattle is narrow and crowded.

Michael is a very questionable effort and character prospect. He brings baggage to the situation right away. On top of his issues, Michael has to overcome three other very talented, similarly built RBs -- Marshawn Lynch, Robert Turbin, and Spencer Ware.

I have no idea what the Seahawks were thinking with the pick of Michael so high. I would want Michael too, but withLynch-Turbin in place, was this a great need? Then, to draft Ware later...I do not get the urgency. I get the talent accumulation, but not the spend. For FF purposes, this is a mess for Michael. You have to have a lot of things go right for Michael to have a path to NFL greatness...you have to bet against it at this point. He is a worthy talent, but depending upon where he is valued in a Dynasty Rookie Draft. I have no interest in waiting three years for the three good games he will yield. Too cluttered; it is a shame...

 

 

 

#25) WR Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh

I'd absolutely love this pick more if Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders were not already on the Steelers. Wheaton is arguably a better WR than Brown, but for FF purposes they are similar. Wheaton is no Mike Wallaceeither...no one is except Torrey Smith (who is better than Wallace). Wheaton is far superior to Sanders, but likely sits behind him for a year and then takes his spot -- which is brilliant of the Steelers to set up.

If for some reason A. Brown went down, Wheaton, not Sanders, would be the WR excitement I would want for FF.

This is another situation where you mostly skip now due to current depth chart congestion (unless he is a cheap pick), then you trade for him in six months when the rookie hysteria dies down.

 

 

#26) QB E.J. Manuel, Buffalo

8/13/13 = I thought he looked terrible in his opening week. We were shaky on him to begin with; all our fears were on display in his debut. His release and delivery could be fixed, but I'm not a "QBs can be fixed guy," they are good-great...or they aren't. I would have E.J. fall further, but the fact that he might start and be useful on matchups is worth something.

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I'm not an E.J. fan, but you have to start taking the mobile/read-option QBs seriously. Watching Syracuse tape ofRyan Nassib, I always wondered why they were running a read-option-ish system with Nassib -- who is afraid of Nassib running? Still, there was Nassib wasting time with fake hand-offs. Now I think I get it -- Doug Marrone is a closet read-option guy...more to the point I think he is more a Chip Kelly follower.

I don't think Manuel's mindset is as a runner. He does not possess the (timed) speed or (visual and statistical) elusiveness of a Russell WilsonCam Newton or Colin Kaepernick, but E.J. is fairly mobile. In Fantasy Football, you have to respect these read-option QBs in which the system can drive output higher than expected on pocket talent alone.

At a certain point you have to pinch your nose and grab Manuel depending upon the Dynasty Rookie Draft board. I think you do so more to hope & pray -- or better yet, trade him into the moment he is about to take over for Buffalo. E.J. has a value, but it is more as a flip...not an investment.

 

 

 

#27) RB Jonathan Franklin, Green Bay

A love-child for many pre-draft, but now is paired with Eddie Lacy...and his stock has now plummeted. Had it been he, not Gio Bernard who landed with the Bengals, he would have demanded a much higher ranking. This situation is not favorable for FF.

It is probable that Franklin is a sparsely used RB for the Packers in 2013 (and beyond). Franklin is a solid RB prospect...as waere James StarksAlex Green, DuJuan Harris. A non-power RB has not fared well long-term (for FF purposes) with Aaron Rodgers. Power runners are typically bigger beneficiaries. Barring an Eddie Lacy injury, it is possible Franklin will be lost in our memories soon into this season. Should Lacy come down with an injury; then it's game-on with Franklin.

You have to call Franklin -- the Eddie Lacy handcuff. What that is worth to you, is where you should value him in a Dynasty Rookie Draft. If you drafted Lacy, you have to grab Franklin.

 

 

 

#28) ILB/OLB Paul Worrilow, Atlanta

8/13/13 = Only Vance McDonald was more impressive in his preseason debut than Worrilow...and that claim is debatable. Worrilow had 12 tackles against the Bengals, 10 of them solo with one TFL. He got those tackles early...and often. He was a machine, all over the field. An All-Pro, double-digit tackles per year guy could be lurking here.

The prescient words of written in all of 2013 may be the paragraph below, my original comment post-NFL Draft...

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Your first reaction is a logical one -- why would I care about a LB that 32 other teams in the NFL didn't draft? Salient point. But consider this point for a moment (if you play in 32 team, deep dynasty leagues) -- Worrilow has characteristics in common with some of the all-time LB greats in our database. His measurables make him one of the best LB prospects in the draft. He had good-great performance at D2 Delaware. This is a lottery ticket that the computer found a poor man's Luke Kuechly for the price of a few pennies in a Dynasty Rookie Draft. *Refer back to our full scouting report on CFM to re-acquaint.

 

 

 

#29) RB Mike James, Tampa Bay (+14 spots)

8/22/13 = A MUST for those looking for the Doug Martin handcuff. James has looked great, like a mini-me Martin. He is a runner with "pop" and is great in the receiving game. He is clearly better than Peyton Hillis.

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So LeGarrette Blount is gone, and someone has to be the Doug Martin handcuff -- and it will be Mike James. If you have Martin, James is a must -- he has a similar physical profile and measurables to Martin, but without the history of higher end on-field production. James did not have a 100+ yard rushing game in four-years at Miami, Fla. James has the right physical dimensions for NFL success, but his performance has been very weak. James is worth a look gambling on a Martin injury, and a priority if you already own Martin.

 

 

 

#30) QB Matt Scott, Jacksonville (-2 spots) 

6/30/13 = Scott did not see much time in early training camps, and therefore, is not generating much of a buzz so far. He won't be drafted by many in Dynasty Drafts, so you can sit back and wait a year (maybe) to see if anything starts rumbling. The new QB coach for Jacksonville was also Scott's QB coach at Arizona, and they are talking development at this stage...not a rush.

I can only imagine the same minds that brought us Blaine Gabbert, and the minds that continue to promote what strides he is making, cannot be relied upon to do anything radical here.

 

Original Comments: OK, this might look crazy. I probably won't be the only one to try to make a Russell Wilson-2012-Seattle connection to Scott-2013-Jacksonville. The problem is that I've seen the Russell Wilson and Matt Scott passing metrics from college -- Matt Scott is no Russell Wilson. Our knock on Wilson, like the universe's, was that he was "too short"...making us "too dumb." Credit us, however, for being way ahead of everyone on the Wilson party in the 2012 preseason and early on in the 2012 regular season when people bashed him.

Matt Scott has a Colin Kaepernick cannon-arm, and may be a better passer than Kaepernick. Scott is one of the most agile QBs you are going to find. If QB doesn't work for Jacksonville -- then I'd move him to RB or WR. There is talent here with Scott. He sat behind Nick Foles at Arizona, because, well, Nick Foles is awesome. No crime for Scott. When he played last season as the Arizona starter, I really loved his tape, but he played in a Chip Kelly-meets-Colin Kaepernick fast-break, read-option offense. I'm not sure how Scott really translates to the NFL.

I do know he is a mini-Colin Kaepernick in most all aspects. Same attributes, but three inches shorter and did not test as well in the Wonderlic.

The kicker, of course, is that Jacksonville has NOTHING at QB. The starting job is there for the taking. If he starts, he will run for 30-50+ yards a game a la Russell Wilson. His arm is more designed for the pros because he throws so hard. There might be something special here.

CAUTION -- If there is something special, I'm not sure Jacksonville is smart enough to find it. However, the new Jags coach saw up-close what happened in Seattle last year...perhaps, he is looking for the same lightning in a bottle.

The QB position is very over-supplied now for Fantasy Football. Even if Scott hit in 2013, he'd be one of 12+ QBs you could work with in FF. If this were 2011, before the Luck-RG3-Wilson onslaught, then Scott might be a top-5 Dynasty Rookie Draft play here (assuming Jags go read-option with him). This is going to be intriguing. I assume others will draw a Wilson/Scott conclusion as well, so don't be surprised if he is taken top-20 in some Dynasty Rookie Drafts held in July-August.

 

 

 

 

#31) DE Dion Jordan, Miami

Analysts are profiling Jordan as more of a pure rush-end, but I saw (and the numbers back up) a DE that can bounce off blocks and pursue ballcarriers effectively. In fact, I thought he was a much better pursuit tackler, ball pursuer than a pass-rusher.

Jordan has high-end athleticism for a DE. He has the potential to be a multi-dimensional producer in sacks, passes-defended, and total tackles.

 

 

 

#32) WR Keenan Allen, San Diego (-5 spots)

8/13/13 = I keep waiting to see something, anything from Allen. He may have great hands, but he is as thin as a rail. I have yet to see anything exciting to work with yet on paper, or on tape in Week-1 or preseason.

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Allen went from consensus #1 WR for the 2013 NFL Draft to mid-3rd-round pick. I'm split-minded on Allen, but there is something here worth looking at.

On the bad side: A terrible Pro Day workout, and a pretty pedestrian last year and half of output in college (one 100+ yard game in his last 16 games, less than 80 yards in seven of his last nine games).

On the good side: The bad Pro Day showing follows an injury issue which may have slowed him down. The really good side -- when you watch Allen, he looks like the most gifted WR in this class...a smaller/thinner Larry Fitzgerald-ish type. Allen may be better in the pros than college.

With the pros and cons, factor in that the Chargers are a great landing spot. He has no real threat on the depth chart besides Vincent Brown (oft injured). Philip Rivers is a good NFL QB, which is better than Allen falling in with Locker-Gabbert-Flynn et al.

 

 

 

#33) SS/FS Matt Elam, Baltimore

Elam is likely to start right away, and that makes him a very valuable rookie Safety. He was not our top rated safety, but he was close. Unlike our #1 safety prospect, Shamarko Thomas, Elam lands in a spot to start and make an impact right away. For that reason, he is our highest rated Dynasty Rookie Draft rookie Safety.

 

 

 

#34) DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, Cleveland

8/13/13 = We're very skeptical of Mingo becoming a star in the NFL. Our computer has two reads: tremendous athlete...wildly unproductive. He is the classic "looks great in shorts" prospect according to our computer models. I saw it on tape as well. You will see flashes of brilliance, with a lot of nothing. The flashes of brilliance sustaining gives Mingo FF hope...

 

 

 

#35) WR Brice Butler, Oakland (+33 spots)

A 4.37 runner with high-end agility at 6'3"+ and 210+ pounds -- he is a physical "A-" prospect for the NFL. However, in college, his performance did not live up to the athleticism gifts -- 24 catches for 347 yards and 4 TDs in 11 games at San Diego State in 2012 was his best season. A former USC WR for three years who transferred -- wherever Butler has gone, he hasn't overly impressed.

In the preseason with Oakland, he has been wildly impressive -- their best WR (which is a backhanded compliment), displaying great hands. We're still skeptical, but he is moving up the charts.

 

 

 

#36) QB Mike Glennon, Tampa Bay (+17 spots)

8/22/13 = Mike Glennon has been the best-looking rookie QB in the 2013 preseason, about that there is no debate. The problem with getting too ultra-excited is that Glennon is on a career glide path like an Eli Manning or Joe Flacco..."NFL good," but not necessarily FF "good." He'll be the Bucs starter in 2014, if not much earlier. That's worth something...

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Original Comments: There is no doubt that Glennon is the first attempt to replace Josh Freeman in 2013 or 2014. Long-term, Freeman will not be the Bucs starting QB by choice, and Greg Schiano has given multiple signs of being lukewarm on Freeman.

Glennon is a poor man's Eli Manning...which may mean he flops in the NFL. However, there is a chance that he becomes a stable starter in the NFL, and that will have some FF value, especially because Glennon seems to prefer throwing deep more than most QBs. We're not sensing star QB here, but "good" is on the table.

 

 

 

#37) DE/DT Margus Hunt, Cincinnati (-3 spots)

What J.J. Watt gives you at DE, Hunt may give you a version of at DE/DT -- and if that Watt type of scoring is favorable in your FF system (passes-defended, sacks, blocked kicks/passes), then Hunt is very valuable...especially if he gets classified as a DE and a DT. He won't have a high tackle count, but he could have a lot of the other desirable FF stats.

 

 

#38) WR Kenbrell Thompkins, New England (new)

8/22/13 = Not even in our top-100 for 2013 originally, but now we have to take him seriously for FF as he has caught some heat working with the best QB of our lifetime. Our computer models rated him lowly coming out of college: Decent athleticism, average performer in college, great hands. We see him more as a 4th-WR in the NFL, than a frontline star.

I think this hysteria will be more of a flash in the pan. He may be a Jason Avant type of NFL/FF WR...great to have on a team, not exciting for FF.

 

 

 

#39) WR Stedman Bailey, St. Louis

We like Stedman Bailey OK, but he is not an elite superstar. He's just another under six foot, under-200-pound WR that does not possess blazing speed...just good speed, and great hands. He is NFL useful. All things said about all the Brandon Gibsons of the world...the Rams have an attraction to smaller, good hands WRs who are boring/hurt quickly in the NFL. Bailey has to compete with faster Tavon Austin and Chris Givens, bigger Austin Pettis, and sleeper Nick Johnson (2012 UDFA). The situation is not favorable for Bailey. He's NFL useful, but will be an FF-snooze most likely.

 

 

 

#40) SS/FS Shamarko Thomas, Pittsburgh

Our top-rated safety for 2013, and a tackling-machine. Thomas is a hitter, and a great athlete. He is also a couple inches shorter than you'd prefer at safety. For FF purposes, Thomas will push 80+ tackles and may offer plenty of passes-defended as QBs challenge him on height. Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu are on their last legs...Thomas may play quickly part-time, before taking over for one of them in 2014.

 

 

 

#41) CB Desmond Trufant, Atlanta  

7/20/13: Love him as an NFL player, but do not see where all the FF stats will come from -- not a big time tackler, and if QBs avoid him, his PDs will be lower too.

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Original Comments: If there is a true lockdown CB in this draft; it is Trufant. He will likely start right away...and be tested right away. There is a chance for an quick FF return for those whose scoring systems favor passes-defended and/or INTs. He is our top rated CB in the 2013 draft class, and should start right away -- there is a reason why Atlanta traded up and bumped ahead of Minnesota to get him.

Trufant isn't a big-time tackler, but he is decent. If he is as good as we think, then down the road he may not get many defended-passes, as QBs avoid him...and that may hurt his IDP/FF value.

 

 

 

#42) SS Eric Reid, San Francisco

Like Matt Elam, Eric Reid lands in a great place, and will be expected to move into the starting lineup quickly. Reid is a physically big Safety at 6'1+, 210+ who should have a respectable amount of tackles quickly. He is a good-not-great player. Shamarko Thomas is far superior to us for FF, but Thomas landed in a tough place for quick impact in FF.

 

 

 

#43) RB Joseph Randle, Dallas

This is maybe the new DeMarco Murray handcuff...and Murray has needed a handcuff more often than not. Randle was a solid producer at Oklahoma State. He has decent measurables. By attrition he is the default #2. UDFA Kendial Lawrence could push him a bit, but odds are with Randle.

If Phillip Tanner ever stays healthy, he is better than all three Cowboys alternatives to Murray, but the injury history has been too great with Tanner, so we assume they took Randle to consider ditching Tanner.

 

 

#44) RB/WR Denard Robinson, Jacksonville (-6 spots)

6/30/13 = His prospect ascendency aggravates me, because there are so many more talented prospects, but the GM is smitten with him...so we have to take him ever more seriously.

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Original Comments: Robinson is interesting because Jacksonville is planning on him playing RB, and he is fairly interesting there as a 4.3+ 40-time runner. The downside is that he has below-average agility, and no visible strength/thick-frame to hold up in the NFL at all.

The Jags have no real established/super-talented RBs behind MJD. There is a ton of FF risk with this pick, and a RB or WR conversion could take a while...and then not be very exciting in the end. Because the Jags are so devoid of talent overall, it makes Denard stick out a little more. At some point, he's worth a gamble on his multi-dimensional hopes.

 

 

 

 

#45) QB Geno Smith, NY Jets (+5 spots)

The more the draft process went on, the more I disliked Smith. Much of his gaudy college performance numbers come from system/pass-attempt volume. He shows flashes of potential, but nothing overwhelming to make anyone believe that he will be a successful starting NFL QB. Early on, we were on the fence -- the more we got pre-draft reports about Smith's attitude and demeanor (from inside sources and national commentary), the more afraid we got. The Wonderlic test score was wobbly to add to the problem. Just when you thought it couldn't get worse for Geno, that interview he had right after getting drafted was a nightmare...it was the cherry on top for all those who had private fears about Smith.

The Jets are a complete mess, so it would not be shocking that they would make another poor QB choice (does giving $50M to Mark Sanchez a year early, trading for Tim Tebow, and signing David Garrard give you confidence for the next QB move?).

I am operating on the premise that Smith is a fringe NFL starting QB, and that the Jets are a mess...and the combination of the two will suffocate and implode Smith. I do not want him. I will list him only because he has some running ability and maybe in a read-option offense his mediocre passing ability would be enhanced. He'll be long gone by the time I would ever pick him in a Dynasty Rookie Draft. Good luck with him everybody else.

 

 

#46) TE Chris Gragg, Buffalo

6/30/13 = All TEs with any modicum of talent are on the move...

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Original Comments: Given his 4.5 speed and decent overall athleticism, he could profile as an interesting Aaron Hernandez-type WR, but I am unsure that the Bills offensive minds are that progressive...or whether Kolb/Manuel are the QBs to make it happen. With the TE position thin for FF, and we're all always looking for TE "hope" -- Gragg offers a little.

 

 

 

#47) DT Chris Jones, Houston

I love Chris Jones as an NFL DT prospect. However, he is just a DT for FF purposes...and joins an already stout D-Line in Houston. He may not need to start right away. We think Jones can be a disruptor in the NFL. I wish Jones had wound up on a "4-3" defense instead of a primarily "3-4." As far as DTs go, he is one to consider late in a Dynasty Rookie Draft in a deep league.

 

 

#48) DT Lawrence Okoye, San Francisco

I've said it a few times -- Okoye is either greatest DT/OT in the history of the NFL, or a farce who will be cut in a few weeks to never be heard from again. At a certain point, in a deeper league, wading through a pile of crap in a late-round Dynasty Rookie Draft -- you have to consider a roll of the dice on not just someone who might play a little, but someone who may redefine the athletics of the position. Dice rolls like this only come around so often...if you need an offensive tackle for FF, this might be your guy. In the beginning, he is working out as a DT. So many "ifs," but just as many "what ifs."

 

 

#49) TE Travis Kelce, Kansas City  

8/13/13 = A more athletic TE than our computer models may be interpreting. Given the desperation for good/great TEs for Fantasy, and the possibility here...Kelce is moving up. He is probably a 2014-15 story, and going to sit behindAnthony Fasano all 2013.

 

 

 

#50) RB Michael Ford, Chicago

8/13/13 = The 2014 Matt Forte handcuff. We wouldn't be shocked if Ford doesn't force Michael Bush out the door mid-2013...when we predict the Bears will clean house for a rebuild. Ford has a nice power/speed combo...not a superstar, but could be very productive if given the workload.

 

 

#51) WR Sam McGuffie, Oakland

McGuffie could stick on this team as a possession WR, and potentially start in 2013...or get cut in the preseason. The Raiders have speedy, smaller, frail WRs Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore -- but they do not play well underneath/taking a beating. Rod Streater is just an NFL non-talent, a scrapper at best. McDuffie is built to be a great slot/possession WR, but he may not get the chance with the Raiders...and even if he were to, then he has the hurdle of Matt Flynn or Tyler Wilson throwing to him.

McGuffie is a talent, but this team is a cluster. Keep an eye on him as a deep-sleeper, even if he is released, but this is becoming a long-shot.

 

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#52) LB Arthur Brown, Baltimore

#53) WR Kenny Stills, New Orleans (+33 spots)

#54) RB Michael Cox, NY Giants (+10 spots)

#55) TE Zach Sudfeld, New England (+11 spots)

#56) K Caleb Sturgis, Miami  (+18 spots)

#57) K Dustin Hopkins, Buffalo  (+17 spots)

#58) CB Jamar Taylor, Miami

#59) TE Kyler Reed, Jacksonville

#60) WR Marquess Wilson, Chicago

#61) WR Da'Rick Rogers, Buffalo (-30 spots)

#62) CB Jonathan Banks, Tampa Bay

#63) SS Kenny Vaccaro, New Orleans  

#64) DE Damontre Moore, NY Giants  

#65) WR/TE Mark Harrison, New England (-20 spots)

#66) WR Brandon Kaufman, Buffalo  

#67) WR Charles Johnson, Green Bay (-23 spots)

#68) S Jonayhan Cyprien, Jacksonville  (-21 spots)

#69) OLB Eric Martin, New Orleans  

#70) RB Andre Ellington, Arizona (+40 spots)

#71) RB Michael Hill, San Diego (-9 spots)

#72) WR Marquise Goodwin, Buffalo  

#73) WR Chris Harper, Seattle  

#74) RB Ronnie Wingo, Atlanta

#75) DT Adam Replogle, Atlanta  

#76) CB/FS Dwayne Gratz, Jacksonville (+5 spots)

#77) SS Earl Wolff, Philadelphia  

#78) TE Nick Kasa, Oakland  

#79) DE Cornelius Washington, Chicago  

#80) TE Jordan Reed, Washington  

#81) CB David Amerson, Washington  

#82) RB Kenjon Barner, Carolina  

#83) RB Kendial Lawrence, Dallas  

#84) WR Ace Sanders, Jacksonville (+21 spots)

#85) RB Jordan Roberts, Kansas City  

#86) CB Darius Slay, Detroit  

#87) WR Ryan Spadola, NYJ  

#88) RB Spencer Ware, Seattle  

#89) QB Ryan Nassib, NY Giants (+12 spots)

#90) TE MarQueis Gray, San Francisco 

#91) RB Matthew Tucker, Philadelphia  

#92) SS Cooper Taylor, NY Giants  

#93) K Brett Baer, St. Louis 

#94) CB D.J. Hayden, Oakland  

#95) TE Levine Toilolo, Atlanta  

#96) RB Mike Gillislee, Miami (-6 spots)

#97) RB Kerwynn Williams, Indianapolis  

#98) WR Ryan Swope, Arizona (-38 spots)

#99) WR T.J. Moe, New England  

#100) TE Joseph Fauria, Detroit  

#101) WR Terrell Sinkfield, NY Giants  

#102) TE Jake Stoneburner, Green Bay  

#103) WR Justin Veltung, Seattle  

#104) TE Jack Doyle, Tennessee

#105) TE Ryan Otten, Jacksonville

#106) WR Corey Fuller, Detroit

#107) TE Demetrius Harris, Kansas City (-11 spots)

#108) TE D.C. Jefferson, Arizona  

  

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Noticeably absent from the top-50 (no particular order):

 

RB Stepfan Taylor, Arizona -- We think Taylor is an abject bust RB. Very slow, a tweener in size. There is nothing here to love but a ton of carries he took at Stanford. It will be a different world in the NFL. Let's say we're only part right here -- Taylor was taken as a Mendenhall insurance policy, and 2014 starter when Mendy bolts again as a free agent. Taylor will only be viable (if he ever is) in 2014 -- so pass him up now, then circle back to trade for him (if you want) mid-season when no one cares as much.

 

WR Terrence Williams, Dallas -- one of the worst picks in the draft.

 

DE Bjoern Werner, Indianapolis -- too slow to have a big statistical impact; likely to bust...especially in FF.

 

TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia -- a lot of TEs on the depth chart, and Ertz is somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd best among them. We don't feel Ertz is a breakout talent, and if he is working with Michael Vick -- you can forget it. He will go much higher than what I would consider, so "I'm out."

 

QB Matt Barkley, Philadelphia -- we don't think he works in the NFL, I'm not buying the Chip Kelly magical offense will unleash Barkley. I'm not wasting a pick to find out. If I'm wrong, I'll admit it later.

 

QB Landry Jones, Pittsburgh -- we like him OK as a QB prospect, but it will be years before we even see him play (unless a freak injury to Big Ben).

 

ILB Manti Te'o, San Diego -- we think he is mediocre, everyone else loves him. He'll go way before I would think to take him in this draft, so I'm not wasting space on the list.

 

RB Marcus Lattimore, San Francisco -- we think Lattimore is overrated when healthy, plus has the injury risk, now joins a roster loaded with RB. How long to wait before I find out he was overrated? Go get LaMichael James while you are at it. Risky, a long wait, and crowded depth chart -- not interested.

 

WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee -- this is a pure bust waiting to happen, at best he will be mediocre/useful in the NFL.

 

RB Jawan Jamison, Washington -- the last time I said a Washington RB did not move me it was Alfred Morris. Jamison in no way shape or form is like Morris. He'll never make it.

 

QB Tyler Bray, Kansas City -- hated him pre-draft; dislike him more trying out for the Chiefs.

 

TE Gavin Escobar, Dallas -- we think Escobar is mediocre at best. Because he has some national appeal as a prospect, and because he now plays for Dallas, he will get a look for many in Dynasty Drafts -- you can have him.James Hanna is a more interesting TE prospect.

 

QB Tyler Wilson, Oakland -- you have to absolutely be kidding me. This is a joke.

 

CB Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota -- measured very un-agile, tape of his tackle ability was one of the worst I've seen this year. Too many negatives to even bother with here.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

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