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Dynasty Rookie Draft 2015 Rankings: Top-200+ Prospects with IDP (11.0)

Air Date:
July 31, 2015

In Version 11.0: Updated for research and activity over the prior week. This will really start changing when we see the training camps and preseason games.

 

Obviously, scoring systems and existing rosters would affect some of the valuations, but we look at the group in a standard and PPR sense to discuss/rank the players as we see fit.

Note: We always keep the original commentary from prior versions in place, and add to it as we go, so you can see what has changed over time.

We are dropping in some 2016 prospects in the rankings just to get a feel where we see them, as if they were in this year’s Dynasty Rookie Draft. Some of you do draft prospects still in college, while others are just looking to see how next year’s class stacks up for trading away or acquiring draft picks.

Here’s Version 11.0 of probably about many versions of them this year…

 

 

1a) WR Amari Cooper, Oakland

7/24/15: We started Amari at #2 back in May, moved him to #1b in June, and now are moving him above Todd Gurley to our #1a in July. It’s all debatable on the proper pick of Gurley v. Amari, and a neat bar room battle to kill an hour, but in the end—do you want a player who might be great for a decade, or one who is more likely a five-year possibility given the toll main-carry RBs take? Odds-wise, Cooper has the better ROI. Right away, it might be Gurley.

 

6/10/15: It’s symbolic, but we’re moving Cooper into a tie at the top with Gurley. In a PPR league, looking out over the next 5-6-7+ years, Cooper should be a stalwart, and Gurley may have blown his knee out again. Gurley is a better prospect in a more dire position of need in FF (main carry RB), but Cooper will be a top-10 PPR guy for years and years—he has more economic life long-term. Taking Cooper over Gurley in a PPR league where your team lacks WRs and is solid at RB is not insane.

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Original Comments: I know. I should be more scared of the ‘Oakland’ label. It’s a legit fear, as Oakland is a place where Fantasy players go to die. I think three things work in Cooper’s favor here (besides the fact that he is awesome):

 — Derek Carr is used to a short passing game from his puffed-up college career. He has great velocity and a quick release. He is not as good down-field. He can play pitch & catch with Cooper, which should lead to a nice PPR combo.

 — Oakland still stinks, but Derek Carr never gives up. He’ll be throwing the ball to the bitter end. Cooper could see a ton of junk time stats.

 — Oakland is likely to turn over the GM after this season, and start anew…maybe, better days lie ahead in Oakland?

Cooper’s so good. I hate to pass up such a ‘lock’ of a player to chase hopes on a Kevin White or Breshad Perriman type who have an obvious upside, but are not as ‘sure’ as Cooper.

 

 

 

1b) RB Todd Gurley, St. Louis

I can find something ‘situationally’ to worry about with every name that comes after Gurley on this list, but I have no worries about Gurley’s situation—he will be the primary workload RB. With other rookies, I could worry about some of the other guys on their team’s depth chart, and/or be nervous about the particular QB throwing them the ball, etc.

There is no issue like that with Gurley.

When Todd Gurley is ready to go, he’s walking in and taking 15-20+ carries per game. Jeff Fisher is in a one-and-done situation, and looks to be prepping for a ‘heavy run game and nasty defense’ approach. You can fear the ACL, and that’s not crazy to do so, but if you want the one rookie who is the most likely to have an instant impact, and is the most talented at his craft—here you go.

I’m not sure anyone will disagree. Outside of a few rogue scenarios, most every Dynasty Rookie Draft (DRD) is going to see Gurley go #1.

 

 

 

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QB Cardale Jones, Ohio State (draft eligible 2016)

I could argue Jones as possibly the 1.01 pick if he were for sure in this Dynasty Rookie Draft. There are several interesting RBs available in this rookie draft, with Gurley a cut above in theory. Cooper is a sure-thing WR, but there are a million great WR prospects flooding the NFL. Great QB (and TE) prospects are rare commodities, so when you even think you might smell a top talent at those positions–you have to take it seriously.

See our recent scouting report on Jones for more details, but when you have a strong-armed, Andrew Luck-mobile type QB who shows sensational pocket passing skills, and just ran through the top teams in all college football, coming off the bench to win a national title—you have to take him seriously. Obviously, we have only three career games to evaluate. Obviously, we’d all like more tape and data, but based on what we have—I think Jones shows several encouraging signs of a possible elite (and I do not say that flippantly).

Jones is exponentially better than Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota as a prospect, so he should be rated well ahead of them—if making that comparison in your Dynasty Rookie Drafts today.

What if Jones has a change of heart, and declares for the Supplemental Draft?? This could get interesting.

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From this point on, this Dynasty Rookie Draft is very shaky. Guys at #10 could be argued as the #3, and vice-versa. There’s a lot of ‘educated guessing’/praying with the next group. Some guys I really like, but are in wobbly depth chart/team/QB situations. Most of the guys in the rest of my top-12, are not in the world’s top-12…which means your 1.03 to 1.10 picks are likely more valuable to trade away today. Trade them for great players who aren’t rookies…and try to get a 2nd or 3rd-round pick back to take lottery tickets out on a few not-as-well-loved names to follow here.

Some of the talents we like-love (like David Johnson and Tyler Lockett) might sneak up into the late top-12 in a Dynasty Rookie Draft, but that’s likely to happen for a few months. If your draft is soon—you could trade your 1.03 to 1.10 pick ‘hot’, and look to grab ‘our’ guys in the early/mid-2nd-round. Honestly, after Gurley-Cooper, I could make a case on the names to follow which would leave you in absolute lust for those players, and I could also make an equally convincing argument as to why to be afraid of all of them. It’s a cloudy picture from here on in…

Love some of these following guys, but realize the world doesn’t love most of them…nor their coaches in some instances. They may take half a season or a full season to materialize—and you can acquire them at half-price later this year. Love them, but don’t overvalue them today.

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3) RB Melvin Gordon, San Diego

This is just like 2013 with Tavon Austin…I suggested this same strategy back then with Austin (and was beyond ‘right’), and I am going to propose it with Melvin Gordon now. I am not as brazen about doing this with Gordon (because of the workload differential between a WR and RB on an NFL team), but this is the way I would play it…

I’m not a Melvin Gordon fan. I realize he is ‘good’. I just think he’s ‘good’ at best, and a possible let down most likely. People see him as an ‘A’ grade RB on par with Todd Gurley, and occasionally some will take Gordon at #1 in a Dynasty Rookie Draft. He has that kind of heat. You take Gordon here, if Gurley-Cooper are gone, and then you trade him before the preseason. I think Gordon could struggle quickly, and he has a returning Danny Woodhead, and sometimes impressive, experiencedDonald Brown in the same backfield. Gordon may not be the 15-20+ carry a game guy people think right away. I don’t think he’d hold up well with that kind of workload anyway.

Gordon has more value in a societal sense than any other player after Gurley-Cooper…and that’s an asset for you to use. Re-read his scouting report on CFM to be sure you agree.

Drafting and holding Gordon is not insane, because unlike the obvious issues Tavon Austin was going to encounter—Gordon is a good/solid player, and may get force-fed 15-20+ carries immediately…a be great for FF quickly. You should trade him on ‘a high’ then as well.

 

 

 

4) RB David Johnson, Arizona

This is a gamble. I might, and you might, see this as an easy choice for Arizona. Johnson is superior in every way to Andre Ellington. He’s bigger, stronger, faster, better hands, etc. He’s the obvious choice…except this is the Arizona Cardinals withBruce Arians. A group that decided to ride a tiny-RB with a foot problem right from the get-go last season, and when it started going off the rails they did almost nothing for insurance. The guys Arizona had on the RB depth chart to begin the season were awful, and they were eventually forced to pick up and use Kerwynn Williams—who looked terrific for a moment…and then they stopped using him.

You would think David Johnson as a workhorse right away is a given…it isn’t.

I’m excited…thrilled here…because I believe Andre Ellington is an incredibly soft target to be taken out this year. We’ll see if Bruce Arians agrees…and agrees right away. It’s possible that Johnson could be a workhorse back, and the 2015 Rookie of the Year…if Arians lets him. 1,000+ yards rushing, 500+ receiving, and 40-50+ catches. He’s that kind of talent.

If you assured me Johnson would get 250+ carries this season, I would have him #1 on this board…because I know he’s also going to catch 50 passes.

I’m excited, but this may take a half a season (or more) before we see signs of life.

 

 

5) WR Kevin White, Chicago

I can go one of two ways here:

 — Will White get mostly ignored by Jay Cutler, like Alshon Jeffery did initially by Cutler…preferring to always targetBrandon Marshall? With Jeffery as the ‘new Marshall’…does White have a choppy start to his career? How much does Cutler scare me in this equation?

 — Alshon Jeffery is such a presence that it could open things up for White drawing lesser coverage and going to work right away.

I’d like to say that I know the answer, but I don’t. My heart says, “Option-B, because of course they’ll take advantage of Jeffery double-teams.” My head says, “Option-A”, because Jay Cutler never changes script. If White is not in Cutler’s script…he’s dead; early on. Cutler will throw to Jeffery’s 15+ times a game, whether he is covered or not.

Chicago did not add a QB to challenge the incumbent, so it’s Cutler’s ball game again in 2015…yikes. In 2016, there could a disastrous rookie QB taking over, and then we’re all really screwed. Cutler is gone after this year, I believe, so how confident are you in the Bears ability to replace him with something good for White?

 

 

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TE O.J. Howard, Alabama (draft eligible 2016)

It’s a risk ranking a Tight End up this highly when he hasn’t done ‘jack squat’, for the most part, in the passing game at Alabama. However, Howard has a five-star pedigree, and you can see it in flashes the past two years…when Alabama gives him a chance. I am leaning towards Howard’s lackluster numbers are due to Alabama’s offense, not Howard’s skills, or any lack thereof. 

In addition, there will be several RBs and WRs you will fall in love with again in the 2016 NFL Draft, just like 2015, and 2014. What you didn’t like so much in the past two NFL Draft were the TE options. If Howard has something…anything, you have to value it highly in an era where elite TEs are just not plowing into the NFL like WRs and RBs are.

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6) RB Ameer Abdullah, Detroit

You get added rocket fuel here on the dot-connections: We (and others) have compared Abdullah to a Darren Sproles-ish type entity. A guy who cannot really be a long-term, work horse ballcarrier between the tackles, but get him 7-12 touches out in space, and it could be terrific. The Saints, obviously, would have been a great landing spot for him. However, the Lions are not a bad runner up.

Lions Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi comes from the Saints during the Darren Sproles heyday. He has professed, constantly, a desire to replicate the old Saints offense. Abdullah, with Reggie Bush gone, and because Theo Riddick is marginal, is the ‘next Darren Sproles’…instantly.

I rate Abdullah a little higher here than we really believe in his talent because the fit is nice, and the buzz will generate, and in a PPR-league you have an asset here you many want to sell high on…or just keep. He seriously could be catching 4-7 passes a game right out of the gates.

On the downside, there are issues with fumbles and ball security…and that could halt a rapid ascension towards a top PPR-god status. 

 

 

7) RB Tevin Coleman, Atlanta

I like Tevin Coleman, but I don’t fully trust how he’ll be used in Atlanta. It’s not as if the Falcons chased him…he fell to them.Devonta Freeman is a similar-ish RB (only less talented), and Antone Smith lurks with the new coaching staff. You’d think Coleman is the new staff’s ‘guy’, but he may have just lucked his way into getting picked as ‘best available’ in the early third. I like the situation here, because I don’t think Freeman is very good, but I don’t love it yet for fear there is a revolving door.

I could see a cluster here in 2015—and I still believe Dan Quinn wants to find a power runner to be a Marshawn Lynch for him at some point. The Falcons don’t have anything like Lynch now, and didn’t bite on any in the draft, which makes my theory look stupid, but if they make that move later into 2015 or in the 2016 NFL Draft…then it could be a split back field of touches for Coleman (which will be the problem with most all 200-205-pound RBs).

 

 

8) LB Eric Kendricks, Minnesota

Most IDP formats are more ‘tackle count friendly’ for scoring, and Kendricks could be the main linebacker roaming around to clean up a majority of the work/tackles right away for the Vikings. Minnesota has a rapidly improving defense, one of the best in the NFL—and you knew it was coming with Mike Zimmer. He now adds one of the best defenders in the draft.

We think Kendricks beats out Audie Cole, and Chad Greenway goes away, and Anthony Barr moves to more of a backfield rusher role. Kendricks is a talent, and lands in a great spot for him.

 

 

9) WR DeVante Parker, Miami

6/10/15: Foot surgery. He will miss valuable camp and preseason time on a roster full of younger WRs. It definitely doesn’t make him more attractive in this draft…

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I can’t help it. I like DeVante Parker’s data in our computer models, but I am just not a fan of Ryan Tannehill working downfield. Last season Tannehill threw one TD pass over 25-yards (a 32-yarder). For a little context (and these are the first/only two I looked at for an example–and they fit), Andy Dalton had five TD passes over 25+ yards last season…and three of them were over 70+ yards. Nick Foles had four 25+ yards TDs thrown in 2014, in a half a season…and all of them were over 50+ yards. I think Tannehill works close/short, and Jarvis Landry is his kind of receiver, and not so much DaVante Parker.

I fear Parker becomes too Brian Hartline-ish here…solid, but FF-boring. On another team, Parker might be battling for the 1.01 spot, but on Miami, I’m worried he will never pop the numbers we’d all hope.

 

 

10) WR Breshad Perriman, Baltimore   

I know. I know…’drops’. It’s a broken record. I think the issue is a little overheated with Perriman. They blasted Torrey Smithover ‘drops’ his rookie preseason, and they tarred and feathered Jordan Matthews on ‘drops’ last pre-draft period. Perriman actually makes some spectacular catches. His drops seem to come on easier passes…mostly over the middle. Devin Smithdoesn’t have a lot of drops because he only runs one route…and it’s not over the middle into trouble. Don’t over-fear the ‘drops’ issue here, and be thankful because of it…it actually helps create RDR value a little as others stay away on him.

My greater fear is Torrey Smith was wasted for years by the Ravens system. The whole Ravens’ machine that did that to Torrey are pretty much still in place. They can plug in Perriman for Torrey, and send him deep every play (like Torrey), which means 4-7 targets in a game, and a great play/game every so often for Fantasy. A star was not born here…it was suppressed, most likely.

His talent is so special, that you have to look past some of the negatives and go for a ride with him.

 

 

11) WR Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia

You get a Chip Kelly Offense bounce here, for sure. If I knew for sure that Agholor was starting in the Maclin spot, I’d have to move him higher. However, this is suddenly Jordan Matthews’ offense from a WR standpoint, so everyone else is a second-fiddle. I do not rule out that Josh Huff could defeat or hold back Agholor for a few weeks…or even all season. Huff has experience and the ‘Oregon’ advantage. Recall last year, how many weeks it took Matthews to make a bigger impact. Recall how the Green Bay Packers pushed Jared Boykin over Devante Adams for weeks. In a close race, experienced WRs tend to get the early nudge.

Agholor is not a ‘god’.  He’s just a ‘good’ WR in a great system.

 

 

12) WR Tyler Lockett, Seattle

I love Tyler Lockett as a next Antonio Brown. I am scared to death Seattle is the wrong place to hope for it to happen…on two-fronts:

 — Russell Wilson has shown no desire to make one WR his go-to guy. He didn’t do so with Golden Tate, nor with Doug Baldwin…nor with Percy Harvin.

 — Seattle isn’t a high-volume passing game as it is. They can play conservative and rely on their defense more than other teams. That’s not good for Lockett becoming a next Antonio Brown, and becoming the next Golden Tate circa-his Seattle years doesn’t cut it for me for Fantasy.

You want a great QB to find one guy to make his Welker, Edelman, Brown, Hilton, Wayne, Dem. Thomas, Dez, Calvin, Cobb, etc.–and then you want that WR. Russell Wilson has not shown himself to be that kind of QB. He is, to some degree, smarter than that. He doesn’t tip his hand by relying heavy on one target. It’s great for the NFL, bad for FF.

Wilson might break out as an elite passer in the months or years to come—so there is the hope Lockett is ‘his guy’ on a Wilson-ascension. So far, all we’ve seen are lower passing attempt levels spread around by Wilson—so we have to be a little pessimistic on Lockett’s immediate Fantasy ROI.

 

 

13) WR Chris Conley, Kansas City

This is your call. Scratch him from the list if you like. He had a boring Georgia career, followed by a stunning NFL Combine that put him on the NFL Draft map. Is he just a workout warrior?

It’s one thing to have a terrific NFL Combine–it’s another to have an ‘all-time’ one. Conley has a combination of measurables we’ve never seen before. We don’t really know how to classify him. He’s a true ‘freak’.

We also think the Georgia offense/QB was what held him back in college, not his skills. He was used a lot like Torrey Smith orCordarrelle Patterson have been in the NFL—always sent deep, and you have to hope the QB connects on a long ball…which is rare. When Conley did see the ball at Georgia, he was fantastic.

Conley has a sensational educational background, and is an award winning humanitarian with his off-field time. He’s also may be the best athlete in this draft. Here’s the exciting part, for me: I see Alex Smith unafraid to throw the ball deep, up for grabs, when he gets a mismatch—he has lacked WRs to do such things with in KC. Donnie Avery was awful, and Dwayne Bowe gave up a while ago. Conley + A. Smith, with Maclin and Charles drawing primary attention, may make a huge splash right away.

…or not.

I think I see ‘it’ signs on tape. I’d love to hold a lottery ticket to see how it turns out. Conley could be ‘special’.

…or not.

 

 

14) WR Phillip Dorsett, Indianapolis (+7 spots)

7/30/15: The more I discuss ‘how to play’ Dorsett with people, the more I consider the ‘possible’ value here. Not only is he working with Andrew Luck—a heartbeat/T.Y. injury away from ‘FF-gold’, but a minor hedge that Hilton walks in free agency, and Dorsett assumes the role—which if that happened, would make Dorsett a possible top-30 FF-player in 2016. The valuation potential drives the price here. This as much a speculation on 2016 ‘play’ as it is whether Dorsett is talented or not (you can/will find 50 WRs just like him from the 2014-2017 drafts).

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Org. Comments: Why this NFL Draft pick makes no sense on the surface, may be why it makes a ton of sense in a Dynasty Rookie Draft…

Why take Dorsett with T.Y. Hilton already in that role? That’s what people opined when this pick was made. It’s because Hilton will command $10M a year with a repeat of his 2014 efforts (TYH is an unrestricted free agent in 2016), and maybe Indy is wise enough to know Hilton is terrific, but not worth $10M+…especially if Phillip Dorsett does similar things…cheaper.

This won’t be a 2015 story. If there is fire with this smoke—you hold on to see if Dorsett takes over for Hilton in 2016. That’s a lot of waiting and ‘ifs’ on a guy who is fast, but not as fast as everyone thought…and a WR who is a solid, but not special. Look at his last two seasons in college—just a deep-threat, not an all-around WR. His value as a potential #1 or #2 WR is very much in question, and would need development.

This is strictly a bet on 2016–that he would be the replacement for Hilton.

 

 

15) LB Ben Heeney, Oakland

Arguably the best Linebacker prospect in the draft—a tackle machine, a 4.59 runner with sensational agility. He is a nice 4-3 LB for Oakland, but I’m not sure if he’ll start for the Raiders quickly enough to rank him any higher. Sio Moore (coming off injury/surgery) and Khalil Mack are at the top of the depth charts along with Curtis Lofton in the middle. Things are a little congested at LB for Oakland. Heeney was not a high pick for the Raiders who needs to be forced into action.

However, Sio Moore is not Jack Del Rio’s guy…and Heeney probably is. If Heeney starts, he’ll lead Oakland in tackles right away. Heeney is on par with Luke Kuechly and Paul Worrilow—high effort, smart players, high athleticism.

If I knew Heeney would be named a starter for 2015, I’d place him in the top 6-10 on this list potentially—and ahead of Eric Kendricks. The Oakland ‘thing’ scares me a touch…and that may be overshot a little with a new, decent defensive coach taking over.

 

 

16) WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee

It’s a gamble. Gun to my head, I bet against DGB…that he flames out within a few years by some self-inflicted stupidity. However, there is another side to this—he trims 10-pounds, adds muscle, and becomes a freak-a-zoid athlete who finally puts his life in order…and then we’re talking one of the greats. Nelson Agholor’s (example) maximum performance is nowhere near what DGB’s ‘max’ is.

At a certain place in this DRD…you bet on DGB. For some, it could be #5 overall…for others he’s not on their board. I cannot argue with someone taking him #5, #10, #15, or just skipping him. It doesn’t matter whether it is Mettenberger or Mariota…if DGB is at the top of his game, he’s a stud. Pure and simple. I just don’t think he’ll get there…but in case he does, you have to take the bet seriously.

 

 

17) OLB Vic Beasley, Atlanta

If your IDP scoring system is more ‘sack friendly’, then Beasley might be ranked closer towards the top-12…because Beasley could be off-the-charts as an NFL talent. We know he can get into the backfield, but his physical metrics suggests he could be a great run pursuer and can drop into pass coverage.

His college experience/data says, “Sacks only” with limited interest in the other aspects (run stopping, pass coverage). I think that bum-rushing the backfield was more the role that he was asked to produce at Clemson, and that we should not write off him becoming a freak/star DE/OLB who does it all. Arguably, Beasley is the most gifted player in this draft…and he goes to a team desperate for a pass rusher—there should be some instant impact.

 

 

18) QB Marcus Mariota, Tennessee

7/15/15: I am torn between my data that show Mariota is going to get blown out of the NFL rapidly as a passer…and other performance data and visual scouting that shows he has the ability to read the field, but it was underdeveloped/used at Oregon. The thought that Mariota could be a ‘decent’ passing QB, who runs for 3-4-5 FF-points per game is nothing to sneeze at—in an Dynasty Draft that offers almost no QB hope at all. The scarcity of it all makes the gamble a little more tempting…

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6/25/15: Watching Derek Carr’s tape from 2014, made me even more nervous on ‘these’ types of QBs. The guys who throw all their passes from -5 to 9 yards downfield, and then struggle to work any deeper. It’s so limiting, and the Defensive Coordinators are going to figure out how to box them in—like they did later in 2014 with Carr. Jacked up college numbers in gimmicky offenses should be more of a red flag then they are.

Mariota can run effectively, so we keep ranked up a little higher, but my Spidey-senses are tingly here…not good.

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Original Comments: There is FF-value in a highly-mobile QB like Mariota, but it would have been a lot more valuable on the Philadelphia Eagles than on the Tennessee Titans. Mariota joins a team with an offense not built for him, and that fact is going to stunt the speed of any FF-viability he might have…if he ever really has any.

Don’t buy the “offense is going to be built for him” talk. That con really means: “We’ll put a couple of plays in the playbook where he does a read-option, but then will use or once or twice, and when it doesn’t lead to a long TD every time–then we give up.” Coaches like Ken Whisenhunt do not change what got them where they are. If he reassigns his offensive coordinator Jason Michel, and hires a spread offense expert—then we’ll reevaluate. It’s not going to happen. They will force Mariota into becoming something he has little experience in—a pocket passer…a la Robert Griffin III.

‘They’ will also all be fired in 2016 for this massive mistake of not trading him to Philly.

It will take years for Mariota to acclimate to a traditional pocket passing game, if he ever does. It’s a horrible scene to wind up in for Mariota’s future. Sure, he’ll have games where he escapes the pocket and gets 30-40-50 yards rushing in a game and has Jake Locker like viability for a few FF-games. The likely scenario out of the gates: Mariota struggles, has up and down performances…and people start forgetting about him within a year or two.

I could see an Alex Smith career trajectory coming: Smart, athletic kid with the skills to make it, but is thrown into the fire too quickly on a bad team coming from a gimmicky college offense…and is proclaimed a bust after 2-3 seasons, only to rise again by sheer determination years later—after everyone already had written him off. It’s not the kind of story you want to buy heavily into in the 2015 Dynasty Rookie Draft.

On the plus side: He’s a QB, and this draft just gave you 0.0% hope of landing an FF-viable QB, so Mariota having skill, but in a bad spot, still has some value because of the scarcity at the position from the 2015 NFL Draft. At least, Mariota can run…and will play.

In the end, if you like Mariota, buy him at .50 on the dollar in October/November. Don’t over-invest now…unless you are QB desperate. If you are, then Mariota is all you got from this draft with Hundley screwed in Green Bay.

 

 

19) WR Justin Hardy, Atlanta

This could be a perfect situation for Hardy. If Atlanta locks up Julio Jones long-term, then any talented 2nd-WR is in a great spot to produce as most of the defensive attention goes on to Julio. Roddy White is in his final days as a star (he might be getting ready to turn into Greg Jennings—guy who was awesome, and then quickly got mediocre). Hardy starts as a #3, but could be a #2 quickly.

Atlanta has the home/dome advantage for the passing game, plus plays in an NFL South with garbage secondaries…it is a perfect storm. Hardy could be an 80+ catch a season guy quickly.

 

 

20) LB Jake Ryan, Green Bay

5/15/15: More and more it looks Ryan may actually have a chance to start opening-day.

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Original Commentary: One of the best, most underappreciated Linebacker prospects in the draft. 112 tackles last season, and 10+ TFLs in three of his four college campaigns. He’s above average athletic, and a decent OLB prospect…but we think a move to ILB could be an awesome fit. He plays like an old-school ILB, and would be considered a very athletic one…more so at ILB than at OLB. Don’t be shocked to see him starting right away.

 

 

21) RB Matt Jones, Washington   

5/26/15: There are way too many good vibes coming out of Washington OTAs to be ignored. I’m not saying Jones is the most talented RB in the draft or anything, but he’s good, above-average—great size and power with decent hands. Alfred Morris is an FF-snooze. I don’t think Jones will take out Morris, but we all are seeing way more pro-Jones talk than let’s say pro-Mike Davis talk in San Francisco. I like Jones just fine, but I love rookie RBs who are in-line for touches right away—Jones is forcing his way into a more serious role right now.

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5/12/15: The new Redskins GM coming out and comparing Jones to Marshawn Lynch kinda grabbed my attention. Not that I need GMs to tell me what to think, but I have a belief that Alfred Morris is a soft target to be taken out—a one-dimensional runner who’s coming up on free agency, and no way Washington pays up to keep him. Morris works in Washington, but he may have peaked. The new GM…and his new ways…no way they pay Morris in his pending free agency. I’m not sure Jones is the answer for the Redskins, but he is the leading contender at the moment.

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Original Commentary: If you own Alfred Morris, you have to take Jones seriously. Jones is a talented, physical runner with the red-flag of a torn meniscus issues in his past. The new Redskins’ GM may be getting ready to let Morris go in free agency ahead, because Washington stinks with or without him, and Morris is a very generically good RB that some team will pay $5M+ a year to next season. Matt Jones is an intriguing part of a future RB duo…where Jones is ‘the heavy’.

A quick clip from a scouting report I did on Jones for PFS: “Productive when given a heavy workload. In four career games with 20+ carries in the game, Jones is averaging: 159.5 rushing yards with 1.2 TDs per game. *Ran for 192 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries in a defeat of Georgia this season.”

 

 

 

 

22) CB Byron Jones, Dallas

6/16/15: News that he might start out at Safety in 2015 is a win-win for FF-purposes. He is an elite cover prospect plus a great hitter/former Safety.

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Jones is 50/50 to start day-one as a corner, but worse case by mid-season 2015…and he’s likely a rookie to get picked on by opposing QBs right away—which means plenty of PDs headed his way. He also is a former Safety, so he’ll get his fair share of tackles. Things should be FF-good with Jones instantly. The one minor risk is he is so good in 2-3 years, that like a Richard Sherman, etc.—teams stay away from him, and it cuts down his FF-numbers…but that will take a few years.

 

 

23) RB Mike Davis, San Francisco

Davis is one of my favorite RBs in this draft…if his head is screwed on straight. Davis runs for power, has nice speed for his size, and has fantastic hands in the passing game. If I could only have one RB between Davis and Carlos Hyde…I take Davis.

Hyde was not ultra-impressive in his debut season in 2014, and might be a little bit of an issue off the field…there was enough doubt by the 49ers that they drafted Davis. Don’t be surprised if Davis wrestles away the starting job by opening-day.

 

 

24) WR Darren Waller, Baltimore

5/13/15: News blurbs have hit from Ravens camp that Waller is taking some snaps as a TE. The more TE chatter, the more valuable Waller is for FF-purposes.

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Original commentary: If the Ravens were secretly tickled with my notion that Darren Waller could be a nice weapon as a transition to TE—then they wouldn’t have drafted two other TEs in this draft (Maxx Williams, Nick Boyle) to go along with last year’s drafted TE Crockett Gilmore…and to go along with ‘nearly done for good’ TE Dennis Pitta.

Waller is much more interesting as a TE than as a WR, but he is an interesting WR as well…a possible Kelvin Benjamin-type option on a team where the WR depth chart is swelling, and getting more muddied. I like the gamble here. I just think it may take 2-3 years before it starts making sense…if it ever does.

 

 

 

25) LB/SS Shaq Thompson, Carolina 

I might have a little too much bias here, because I just believe in Shaq Thompson. One of those guys who just always comes up with a fumble recovery…and has 5-7+ tackles in a game…and 1-2 PDs, etc. I’m not sure whether all this will manifest itself with him as a Safety or an OLB…or whether he will get any touches at RB on occasion. I just think good things will happen with Shaq.

What you want to hear is that he is slimming down to play Safety, but he keeps claiming he wants to be an OLB. I’m hedging he’s a hybrid OLB/SS right out of the gates…even if that means by scheme, or he bounces back and forth playing them straight up.

 

 

26) LB Paul Dawson, Cincinnati

I am of a belief that there is serious trouble ahead with Vontaze Burfict. He was injured several times last season, and I would be worried that the nagging injuries are going to end his career…or have already ended it essentially. Last season: Two knee surgeries (one more serious), a neck injury and concussion issues. He might be done, only he and no one else knows it until we see how much he slowed down in the preseason. Dawson could be forced to play quickly. *This is just a hunch…

We’re not over the moon with Dawson, but he’s a right fit in Cincinnati…and the playing time opportunity may be there quickly.

 

 

27) DB Eric Rowe, Philadelphia

6/11/15: The chances he starts Week-1 are improving. If he ends up at CB opening-day, he’ll be picked on…which is good for him to rack PDs, plus he is an excellent tackler.

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Original comments: Arguably the best Safety, and top-3 CB prospect in the 2015 NFL Draft goes to a team in need of fresh DBs. Rowe is head and shoulders better than the group the Eagles drafted, and should be thrown right into the fire as a Safety, and maybe as a great tackling/cover corner. He should see his fair share of PDs right away as teams pick on the rookie. He should be a starter and a leader on the team for years.

 

 

28) LB Denzel Perryman, San Diego 

7/7/15: More and more chatter from my sources that Perryman is going to start, and as we predicted on him coming out of Notre Dame—Manti Te’o has been revealed as a limited linebacker. Perryman will instantly put up nice tackle numbers for IDP. He’s a great tackler, but limited in other aspects.

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Org. Comments: Perryman could push his way into becoming a starter for the Chargers this year. He has Donald Butler andManti Te’o ahead of him in the 3-4 scheme. Perryman is great against the run and so-so covering on passing downs. He tested as an average athlete and had a solid-not-spectacular college career. He might be in the right place at the right time for instant FF-numbers. You might consider a sell-off if it happens, because there is not much showing that Perryman will be a sustained superstar in the league.

 

 

29) RB Javorius Allen, Baltimore

5/27/15: I am leaping ahead of the next two listed RBs because of mathematical odds. Allen, and Jeremy Langford andCameron Artis-Payne are not likely to start in 2015—unless there is an injury to the obvious starter. The exception is, in Allen’s case, the obvious starter isn’t all that special—Justin Forsett can be taken out by Allen…or Lorenzo Taliaferro (who we like better). Allen’s is a little closer to a brass ring, and is just as solid a talent as Langford and Artis-Payne—and superior in a PPR scenario.

It comes down to who gets a chance to start quicker…and today that’s Allen.

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5/14/15: He’s rising on the odds of getting more touches right away in 2015. He’s one to watch to see if he is the OC’s ‘guy’ or not this summer.

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Original Commentary: I know, I saw all the roto-blurbs on how Allen fits the Marc Trestman offense as a terrific pass catching RB. Here’s the problem: so does Justin Forsett, and he’s the incumbent. Worse than that…so does Lorenzo Taliaferro…and Taliaferro is far superior talent compared to Allen or Forsett. I like Allen OK enough, but not more than Taliaferro…so I don’t buy Allen’s quick ascension to the throne the media is pushing.

 

 

30) WR DeAndre Carter, Baltimore

6/16/15: Two things keep jumping him in our rankings: (1) His Brandin Cooks comparison is real in most every way. (2) He has grabbed attention at training camp. My fear was he would get buried a little, but he’s actually starting to emerge a little. He could be the best of all the terrific young talent they have.

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Original Comments: The young WR who might be the real future star to emerge is not oft-injured Michael Campanaro, orDarren Waller, or Jeremy Butler…it might be 2015 undrafted free agent DeAndre CarterSteve Smith Sr. raved about him publicly, and others close to the source say Carter is shining in OTAs. Most likely, Carter is hidden away for a year or two, but if/when he emerges—you might have a Brandin Cooks-alike on your hands. If Campanaro’s quad is worse than expected—maybe he hits in 2015?

Read our full CFM scouting report for more details on Carter.

 

 

31) WR Ty Montgomery, Green Bay (+10 spots) 

7/7/15: I know. I know. It’s the same logic I’ve been operating under…

Ty Montgomery is ‘good’, but look at that line he is in for targets on the Packers! After Jordy, Cobb, Davante, maybe Janis…is that when Montgomery enters the discussion? If so, not good for FF-valuations in the next year or two.

The more I look at it…the more I see what Montgomery did in 2013 for Stanford: 958 yards and 10 TDs receiving, PLUS 13 carries for 159 yards and 2 TDs, PLUS two kick return TDs and a 30.3 per return average…and I start wondering why I am more scared of Montgomery than not?

He’s going to take returns, and be able to show off…if he is terrific there, he’ll get WR touches. Should Cobb or Adams get hurt big-time, Montgomery becomes white hot to FF-have. Too much potential here to let situation affect his rankings as much as we allowed prior.

 

 

32) WR Tyrell Williams, San Diego

The more we study Williams, the more we fall in love. He’s such a fluid, natural, gifted WR at 6’3”/2014…running a 4.43 40-time with insane agility times and a sweet 39.5” vertical. I think with a year of adding 10+ pounds of bulk, Williams could be a #1 WR in the NFL…and the Chargers have an opening for such a talent. Williams is quickly becoming our mega-sleeper of the draft.

 

 

33) WR DeAndre Smelter, San Francisco

Smelter was one of the steals of the draft, and he could not have wound up in a worse place for 2015…and maybe beyond. The 49ers have been a place where all receiving talent goes to FF-die with Colin Kaepernick. However, there is a new head coach now (and probably another new head coach in a year two), things may get a little more traditional/higher-volume in the passing game in the upcoming years. Smelter could be the new Anquan Boldin—the more athletic Anquan Boldin. A reliable pass catcher…a possible PPR star with terrific, huge (11”+) hands.

More than likely, 2015 is a learning year (and he’s coming off an ACL). If a quiet 2015 happens, then he’ll fade from Dynasty-desire in October/November and can be had cheaper…so I’m not sure you have to rush this for 2015. Someday down the line he could be one of the better WRs to come out of this draft.

 

 

34) DT Marcus Hardison, Cincinnati  

At his best, Hardison is the best DT in this draft—the most gifted, and disruptive. However, Hardison has never been ultra-reliable or consistent in his life—until late in 2014. After a quiet year as a junior (JUCO transfer), Hardison posted 10.0 sacks in his final 10 games for Arizona State, and then went to the Senior Bowl and was nearly unblockable.

You could fall flat on your face here with Hardison…or cheaply snatch one of the most talented IDPs in this draft. 

 

 

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DE Shawn Oakman, Baylor (eligible in 2016)

Because Oakman has freakish size (6’8”+), and flashes some nice athleticism–you have to take him seriously as a future high-end pass rushing prospect…with the FF-bonus of being built for knocking down passes (PDs!). His tape does not reveal a looming star as of yet (see our full scouting report on Oakman in the played index), but there are some things about him (size, athleticism) that gives you hope something more might be here.

************

 

 

35) DB Quinten Rollins, Green Bay  

The bet here would be that Rollins moves to Safety, and becomes a 100+ tackle a year threat with nice ball skills to pick-off passes. He might be a ‘holy grail’ kind of Safety for FF-purposes. I believe that Rollins is destined to be a Free Safety in the NFL, and could be a very good/great one.

There are risks:

 — Rollins is raw, as he played just the one year of college football (albeit he was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year). The learning curve may push this 1-2 years out.

 — The Packers have nice talent in the Defensive backfield already. Rollins has others to fight off for prominent playing time.

 — The Packers could push him as a CB, and then it drags on his FF-stats a bit. He’s a better FS than CB for NFL-purposes, and that’s also better for IDP-scoring to rack up more tackles.

 

 

 

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Now the players in our DRD rankings are going to get a little more sketchy/dicey. There are some talented names to be listed, but they wound up in terrible situations–whether because of the team or a loaded depth chart (or both). The talent may be there with some of the following prospects, but we may not see them get a chance to display it for a few years—and by then people will have given up on them/discounted them/can be acquired for .10-.20 on the dollar.

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36) RB Duke Johnson, Cleveland

Duke Johnson is a quality enough RB prospect. The only problem is the Cleveland situation is horrid. First, Johnson is arguably not as talented as either Terrance West or Isaiah Crowell. Secondly, the Browns have no QB play so TD opportunities will be limited.

The only reason for excitement is his potential use as the passing game RB—and that the Browns will have to/want to check down often with bad QB play. On another team, in a better situation, he might be a top-20 Dynasty Rookie Draft prospect, but here is going struggle for playing time and numbers in 2015…and you’ll care less a year from now.

 

 

37) SS Landon Collins, NY Giants  

5/15/15: We’re not huge fans of his, but he’s solid with upside…BUT more importantly he is likely to start right away, and give you FF-numbers.

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Original Commentary: The Giants will force Landon Collins into the lineup as a Strong Safety right away, which means he will deliver some nice tackle totals right away. He might get scorched in pass coverage, but that’s not my FF-problem. I’ll take the tackles. Collins is not ‘special’, but could transform his body in time to be a better NFL player (needs to cut some bulk…or move to Linebacker).

 

 

38) LB Eli Harold, San Francisco  

Harold has the physical tools to be a sneaky good pass rusher, and a decent run stopper as well as coverage guy in the passing game. He is not likely an ‘A’ in any facet, but because he is a solid ‘B’ or ‘C+’ in everything. He might play right away and produce surprising numbers for a rookie.

 

 

39) WR Kenny Bell, Tampa Bay  

The more I analyze this, and consider Bell’s athletic gifts—I realize that I was probably underappreciating him a little bit. He really has some amazing measurables—a 4.4+ runner with phenomenal agility at 6’1″+. He’s a little thin-framed, and a little raw as a WR coming from an antiquated, low-volume Nebraska passing game (where he was mostly sent deep or got bubble screens on a sporadic basis). IF Bell transforms his body, and hones his craft (and he’s off-the-charts smart), there might really be something here in a year or two. It may not pan out, but if it does—it could be a mild shocker.

 

 

40) TE Blake Bell, San Francisco  

We see Bell with some interesting value as a surprise stud receiving TE in the NFL…maybe. He’s only played the position for a year. So we are cautiously optimistic. However, the main reason Blake Bell has a little bump in what you might expect on his FF-value is his ability to play a Tim Tebow-role. Within the five-yard line, Bell might see some time as a shotgun QB who can keep it himself or toss a TD.

As strictly a TE, on a team with a logjam of nice TE talent, Bell is virtually ‘dead to me’ on the 49ers.

In a year or two, in my fantasyland, with 4-5-6 rushing TDs in a season who also sees some receiving action as a TE…it could get interesting.

 

 

41) CB Darryl Roberts, New England

6/18/15: Reports from training camp that Roberts is working some with the first-team on occasion—a nice early sign of us being on the right track here.

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Original Comments: A supremely gifted athlete…a steal by the Pats. Given the issues New England has at CB going into 2015, don’t be shocked if Roberts is playing pretty quickly, and possibly starting by year’s end. Worst case he starts in 2016. He has the potential to be a true shutdown corner. As a rookie, he’ll be under attack right away—which means plenty of PD opportunities. He was one of the leaders in the NCAA in PDs last season.

New England is unlike most franchises, they won’t bury players or push them based on draft status. If Roberts is as good as we think—he’ll play some right away.

 

 

42) LB Jordan Hicks, Philadelphia

There is a real sleeper possibility here. Hicks is a solid OLB prospect at 6’1”, 236 with 4.6+ speed and terrific agility. However, as an ILB he might be eye-catching with that athleticism. After mostly a quiet career at Texas, Hicks posted 107 tackles last season.

With Mychal Kendricks involved in trades as a looming free agent, and Demeco Ryans on his last run…Hicks could see a push into playing time faster than expected.

 

 

43) TE Maxx Williams, Baltimore  

How is this going to be super-exciting? I get that the Ravens ‘love a TE’, and Maxx Williams is a ‘name’ TE, but consider three things here:

 — Maxx Williams isn’t that great of a TE prospect, thus his draft fall in the draft

 — The Ravens love a TE? When was Dennis Pitta ever that FF-good, except about a three-game stretch to start a season a few years ago? Williams is no Pitta, not even close.

 — The Ravens do ‘LOVE a TE’…and they have like 3-4 decent ones on the depth chart. It’s a crowded pool.

 — Rookie TEs usually stink, and Williams is a rookie…and isn’t all that great anyway.

Williams is going to be a spotty performer at best. One who might string 2-3 games together to get people FF-excited, and that’s it. There is not a long-term FF-Tight End answer here.

He is a TE, so we do have to overvalue him on a hedge we are wrong…because the TE-market is so depressed.

 

 

44) WR Devin Funchess, Carolina  

5/25/15: I need to take Funchess more seriously as a Fantasy prospect just in case he is designated as a Tight End. As a WR, I’m not as interested.

Funchess is a long-shot either way for bigger Fantasy production. Kelvin Benjamin is the preferred ‘big radius’ target of Cam, and Greg Olsen is the more experienced, quality TE option.

 

 

45) RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina  

Artis-Payne is a very average, useful, straight-ahead RB…who plays on a team where always-injured Jonathan Stewart is the current #1 RB. By attrition, Artis-Payne will likely play, maybe even start, at some point in the season. There is no long-term excitement with C.A.P.—just a nice JStew-injury bump that might (is likely to) occur.

 

 

46) RB Jeremy Langford, Chicago  

Purely a valuation on being a handcuff to Matt Forte. We have him a little higher because it is quite possible this is Matt Forte’s last season in Chicago (he’s an unrestricted free agent after this season). With that, we don’t see Langford as a long-term, viable answer. However, at some point Langford will have FF-tradable ‘heat’ on the news.

I like the future tradable value more than I like the player here, but you might get to FF-use him in a pinch—Forte isn’t getting any younger.

If you already own Forte, then obviously there is the direct value picking Langford as his backup, Langford is much more talented than Ka’Deem Carey.

 

 

47) RB Zach Zenner, Detroit  

6/17/15: As time goes on, Joique Bell is getting downgraded from every angle, it seems…

The Lions have been trying out several veteran big-body RBs for camp. Fears persist on Bell’s injuries and rehab time. Articles are being written about Bell’s recent performance as starter—and the analysts have turned skeptical of him.

At the same time, Zenner is making his way through camp, impressing teammates and coaches—and he is speaking positively about playing football and contributing to the team. Again (below), my fear is Zenner bails being a practice squad RB in favor of going to Med School. Now, daylight is starting to shine through that he might have a chance to play early on.

Zenner has NFL talent, starting RB ability. He may actually get a shot to show those skills in 2015.

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Original Comments: I totally fear he will quit football and go to Med School. Why wouldn’t he? Who wants to be a practice squad RB in the NFL? If he ever makes the roster, he’s working in the most physically brutal, lowest-paid position. It’s a much better life as a surgeon versus being a low-level, backup RB in the NFL.

 

 

48) QB Brett Hundley, Green Bay

Arguably, Hundley is the best QB in this draft, and he is likely to go unheard from for the next four years. However, there are two scenarios that give him some FF-value/hope.

 — I could argue Aaron Rodgers is the single most valuable asset in Fantasy Football now. If you already own him, and you carry deep Dynasty rosters…you want Hundley as a ‘handcuff’. Rodgers goes down, and Hundley is not going to be a massive drop-off. This is not like Drew Brees to Garrett Grayson in an emergency—which is a joke.  

 — If Hundley shows off in the next preseason or two, he should generate NFL trade interest. I know, I’m laughing as I type it because we know the NFL has zero vision on ‘underground’ QBs to gamble on. They prefer re-treading the Josh McCown andMatt Flynn’s of the world. However, this is the Green Bay Packers. The Pack have been the single smartest franchise on QBs in the past few decades. Hundley is even more valuable with that stamp of approval—if he performs well in the preseason, then teams should beg for him.

The mainstream hates Hundley, so the masses will as well. You don’t have to hurry this pick if you want to make it.

Had Hundley been selected by the Cleveland Browns, he’d be in our top-5 overall. On the Packers, you can argue he’s a wasted DRD pick today. This is such a shame.

 

 

49) LB Stephone Anthony, New Orleans

The odds that Anthony plays heavy snaps or even starts in 2015 is looking more favorable. Anthony is talented, but no off-the-charts athletically. The situation/opportunity in New Orleans may give him a nice boost right away for producing Fantasy numbers.

In 47 games at Clemson, Anthony hit 10 or more tackles in a game just once (2013 vs. NC State–14 tackles).

 

 

50) DT Malcom Brown, New England 

Brown is a very talented player who might be more respected in the NFL than for Fantasy. He might be just a really nice player added to a talented overall defense, part of a great ensemble cast—not a statistical standout.

On the flip side, all the surrounding talent may afford him an advantage to push some numbers right away.

He’s a tough one to call.

 

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51) LB Bud Dupree, Pittsburgh

Dupree was a very underwhelming player at Kentucky, considering his physical tools. There is some talent here, and a really solid human. If the Steelers can make something out of him—it will probably take a year or two. There’s a reason for hope, but also a lot of skepticism. There is a reason he fell from top-10 projections to pick #20+ in the actual draft—NFL people watched the tape. Not a lot of heart out of Dupree, but the skills flash every so often.

 

 

52) SS Clayton Geathers, Indianapolis

The hybrid Safety/Linebacker is making waves in training camp, and may play a lot more than you would expect for a 4th-round pick. He is a hitter: 117-100-97 for total tackles over his past three seasons at Central Florida—a four-year starter. He’s long, has 4.55 speed with so-so agility, with a nice vertical (37”) and bench press (22 reps). He has terrific instincts, especially in the run game. He’s a quality football player who could sneak up on people with how valuable a player he can be.

He doesn’t have superstar metrics, but could be a star—the kind of guy who out-efforts his way into becoming a very good NFL player.

 

 

53) DT Danny Shelton, Cleveland (+1 spot)

A gifted DT/NT, who will be active enough to get you above-average tackle totals…maybe even the best among DT tackle totals. What you won’t get is a lot of sacks. He’s not backfield destroyer, but is great controlling the line of scrimmage. He’ll be better than average IDP DT, but does not a massive DT-upside like with Aaron Donald last year or Marcus Hardison this year.

 

 

 

54) SS James Sample, Jacksonville

6/5/15: Broken Arm, and will miss most of training camp and delays his instant impact hopes.

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Original Comments: Sample is one of the quiet ‘sleeper’ Safety prospects from this draft. Physically big at 6’2”/210, and a hitter with 90 tackles last season (74 solo), but he can also cover the pass—4 picks and 8 PDs for Louisville in 2014.

Jacksonville provides ample opportunity for DBs to rack up tackle totals—Sample could start opening day or soon after, and be a shock success in Fantasy for 2015.

 

 

55) DT Leonard Williams, NY Jets

I discounted Leonard Williams a little too much to start this DRD process—scared of his likely 2015 playing time (or lack thereof). After re-examination, Williams should be a nice IDP for Fantasy. He’ll have so-so FF-impact working on the Jets this year with the stacked D-Line they have. His FF-upside is tied to the Jets moving on from Muhammad Wilkerson, or not this year or next.

 

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2016 DE/DT Joey Bosa, Ohio State 

I would rank him even lower than this, but I am keeping him propped up a bit just in case I’m going blind—because I don’t see what everyone else is seeing here. It’s normal for us to be away from the pack, and almost always right, so no big deal…but ‘wow’, everyone’s #1 overall prospect for 2016. I see a sluggish DE or an undersized DT.

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56) RB Thomas Rawls, Seattle   

7/6/15: Too many ‘Marshawn Lynch’-like comps from the coaches to ignore. Robert Turbin is coming off hip surgery andChristine Michael has done nothing to warrant ignoring any young challengers in the backfield.

Rawls is not Lynch-like, but he is capable, and powerful for the NFL. He’s a mess off the field, which is a concern.

 

 

57) DE Shaquille Riddick, Arizona (+2 spots)

7/3/15: Riddick is a long-shot play, but there are measurables/production/metrics in our system that suggests he COULD be a high-end pass rusher in the NFL. A poor man’s Bruce Irvin. He’s a lottery ticket on something special…or bust.

 

 

58) WR Damarr Aultman, Miami (+2 spots)

If he was on about any other team, I would get more excited. Miami is where young, talented UDFA WRs go to die. If Aultman gets poached by another team before the season starts—he will rocket up this ranking board. Be sure to read his full scouting report.

 

59) WR Jordan Taylor, Denver (+20 spots)

 

60) WR Cameron Meredith, Chicago (new)

 

61) DT Henry Anderson, Indianapolis (-3 spots) 

A sleeper at DT out of the draft—Anderson has poor speed for a DE, but as a DT he is considered very athletic. However, the Colts run a 3-4 system…which means Anderson goes out as a DE, and solid but not special. I would have loved to see Anderson as a 4-3 DT, but as a 3-4 DE he’s less FF-exciting. He’s not going to give you huge sack or tackle totals as a 3-4 DE.  

If the Colts move to, or run more 4-3 schemes…bump Anderson up 5-10+ spots on this board.

 

 

62) WR Sammie Coates, Pittsburgh

If not for his poor hands, just based on everything else, Sammie Coates is a top-12 Dynasty prospect based on his physical prowess. At some point, you have to take a dart throw on his physical gifts. I’m not a fan of what I’ve seen on tape in 2014, nor up-close at the Senior Bowl. There is a jaw-dropping play, followed by 10+ head scratchers. I’m not a fan of the fit/opportunity in Pittsburgh, nor Coates’ upside…but at a certain point you take a cheap look to see if he steps up.

 

**Terrelle Pryor conversion to WR – a gamble that he picks up the WR position quickly, and that he really does run a 4.3+, not ‘just’ a 4.4+…PLUS consider if he does make it to an NFL roster, and somehow gets into the lineup, he’s a WR who can take a running play or two, and be a two-point conversion QB, etc. You may get more than just ‘targets’ here. You might get a wild ‘slash’ option in the new two-point world.**

 

 

63) QB Jake Waters, Jacksonville

6/5/15: Released by the Jags so they could add Jeff Tuel, because the Jags know QBs. The concern here is that Waters’ shoulder is not ready now—and maybe has really cost him zip on his fastball. We’re all in the dark on his shoulder. If a reasonable NFL team had cut him, I’d be more worried. The Jags cutting him doesn’t really mean anything worrisome at this stage.

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If they handed me the keys to the Jaguars…Waters would be seriously competing with Blake Bortles for the starting job in 2015, but it would be a formality, because I know Waters is 10x the QB that Blake Bortles is. It will never happen, because the team will rally to protect their ridiculous draft pick…and not as interested in bettering the team.

I have Waters here, because I live in an alternate universe of my own design…a.k.a. I’m delusional. I hope Waters’ shoulder is OK, and he gets some kind of fair shot. If Bortles flames out, someone has to play QB…like Chad Henne.

 

 

64) QB Bryce Petty, NY Jets  

Obviously, given the depth chart, Petty could start right away. However, he’s not ready for that. Most likely, Geno Smith will start, and bomb again…and Petty will be rushed. Petty has a ton of flaws, but some tools too. The Jets are a bad place to try to figure it all out. He’s a QB, and one who may be starting by October, so he has some inflated DRD/Fantasy value on the lack of viable Fantasy QBs from this NFL Draft class.

 

65) SS Jaquiski Tartt, San Francisco 

 

66) WR Tre McBride, Tennessee

Physically, Tre McBride is better ‘on paper’ than his fallen draft stock revealed. I think what scouts see is a WR who doesn’t go at 100% all the time, and wasn’t all that special a producer in the FCS…despite being physically superior. His measurables foretell of a possible PPR star. His play at William & Mary, and his draft status plunge suggests trouble. He’s worth a gamble at a certain point.

Tennessee is not loaded with talent at WR (but they have a ton of suspects), so McBride could stumble into a starting role as a 3rd-WR if he has his head screwed on straight.

 

67) WR Deontay Greenberry, Dallas (-10 spots)

7/5/15: I bypassed Greenberry as not being NFL relevant after the first couple of pass-throughs in our computer scouting models. Average athlete, solid numbers in a fancy college passing game…I’ve seen the story a million-times. No big deal. His grades in our system were so-so. Someone I trust told me to back for a second-look—they were right. Greenberry has fantastic hands—which is a very hard thing for our systems to quantify. People are buzzing about him among the UDFA group they have.

Now, do consider, he’s more Cole Beasley than anything else, so caution on how FF-excited you get…but there is talent here.

 

 

68) LB Randy Gregory, Dallas

69) DB Damarious Randall, Green Bay

70) TE MyCole Pruitt, Minnesota

71) TE Clive Walford, Oakland

72) DL Preston Smith, Washington (+6 spots)

73) WR Jamison Crowder, Washington (-3 spots) – Domestic violence claim raised. He could be out of the league in a hurry.

74) WR Devin Gardner, New England – Consider the Extra Point threat he might be with the new era of XP rules?

75) LB Bryce Hager, St. Louis

76) RB John Crockett, Green Bay  

77) RB Corey Grant, Jacksonville – Moved from ‘wouldn’t touch’ list in May. The physical gifts are there. They just never manifest themselves sustainability in actual games.

78) WR Mario Alford, Cincinnati (+40 spots) 

79) WR Davante Davis, Philadelphia (+1 spot)

80) LB Nate Orchard, Cleveland

81) DL Xavier Cooper, Cleveland

82) FS Mykkele Thompson, NY Giants  

83) DB D’Juon Smith, Indianapolis  

84) LB Danielle Hunter, Minnesota (+15 spots)

85) LB Kyle Emanuel, San Diego

86) WR Neal Sterling, Jacksonville (-9 spots) – Keeping an eye on the 6’3”/235 7th-round pick to see if the Jags try to make him a TE.

87) TE Richard Ross, Minnesota (-15 spots) – You have to take any hope of a future elite TE prospect seriously in this Fantasy TE drought.

88) TE Randall Telfer, Cleveland (-6 spots)

89) RB Tyler Varga, Indianapolis  

90) CB Kevin Johnson, Houston  

91) WR Stefon Diggs, Minnesota  

92) WR Rashad Greene, Jacksonville  

93) LB Zach Wagenmann, Arizona  

94) DT Tyeler Davison, New Orleans

95) WR/TE Kyle Prater, New Orleans  (-25 spots)

96) WR Vince Mayle, Cleveland (-4 spots)

97) WR Antwan Goodley, Dallas  

98) WR Ben Edwards, NY Giants  

99) RB Trey Williams, Washington  

100) DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Kansas City

 

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101) LB Davis Tull, New Orleans  

102) WR Trevor Harman, Arizona 

103) CB Steven Nelson, Kansas City

** WR Duron Carter, Indianapolis – if you were wondering were to value him with his new NFL opportunity, jumping over from the CFL **

104) WR Shane Wynn, Cleveland (new)

105) WR Isiah Ferguson, St. Louis  

106) TE Brian Parker, San Diego  

 

107) RB Synjyn Days, Dallas  

6/11/15: If you cannot make an OTA impression on the Cowboys, given the state of their depth chart…you must not be very good. Days played a limited role for Georgia Tech. I wondered if there might be more to him, and thought Dallas would be a great place where he could get a look. He did, and they dumped him this week. He’s dead to me now.

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A few days prior to this publishing, Days was in my top 12-15, but the more I re-researched and thought about it, I am pouring some cold water on my initial enthusiasm. At first, I saw the Dallas depth chart as ‘easy pickings’ for a RB like Days to step in and shock everyone. Now, I think, I realize:

(1) The Cowboys cannot go into the season with DMC-Randle-Days…they could have had Zac Stacy for nothing. They could get Doug Martin or Adrian Peterson fairly easily today…and after that type pf deal–valuing Days highly turns out to be stupid.

(2) Days is pretty good and interesting, but he’s not ‘great’. He has a role in the NFL as a 5-10 carry a game, Shonn Greene-type power runner as needed. He’s useful, not a secret star.

What I wrote prior to the above change of heart:

The top two running backs for Dallas are Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle. McFadden hasn’t been relevant for years. Randle has looked fine, but has had off-field and locker any issues. Synjyn Days enters this competition as a 230-pound, fresh/not overused in college RB talent with upside.  At a minimum, he could be a goal-line back and/or half of a ‘thunder and lightning’ duo.

On other teams, Days is not all that FF-exciting, just a deep-sleeper…but in this current, oddly empty of secure RB situation in Dallas–he’s an intriguing consideration.

 

 

108) LB Jeff Luc, Miami

109) LB Zach Vigil, Miami

110) LB David Mayo, Carolina

111) LB Mark Nzeocha, Dallas

112) LB Damien Wilson, Dallas

113) WR Kenny Cook, Kansas City  

114) DT Za’Darius Smith, Baltimore  

115) TE John Peters, Cincinnati (new)

116) RB Terrell Watson, Cincinnati

117) LB Hayes Pullard, Cleveland  

118) RB Brandon Cottom, Seattle

119) CB Senquez Goldson, Pittsburgh 

120) TE Casey Pierce, Detroit (new)

121) RB Malcolm Agnew, Green Bay

122) RB Akeem Hunt, NY Giants  

123) RB Jarryd Hayne, San Francisco (-20 spots) – Australian Rugby star trying to make it in the NFL

124) WR Geremy Davis, NY Giants (-4 spots)

125) WR Damiere Byrd, Carolina

126) SS/RB Kyshoen Jarrett, Washington   

127) CB Josh Shaw, Cincinnati  

128) RB Kenneth Harper, NY Giants  

129) LB Ramik Wilson, Kansas City

130) WR Nigel King, Miami  (-20 spots) – released by Miami week of 7/24

131) LB Trey Flowers, New England  

132) WR John Harris, Philadelphia  

133) SS Adrian Amos, Chicago

134) WR Da’Ron Brown, Kansas City

135) SS Ibraheim Campbell, Cleveland  

136) DT Andre Monroe, Baltimore

137) DT Christian Ringo, Green Bay

138) LB Edmond Robinson, Minnesota  

139) CB Craig Mager, San Diego (+3 spots)

140) RB Alonzo Harris, Green Bay (new)

141) LB Lorenzo Maudlin, NY Jets  

142) WR Rasheed Bailey, Philadelphia  

143) RB Brandon Wegher, Carolina (new)

144) RB Rod Smith, Seattle  

145) WR DeAndre White, San Francisco  

146) DE Owamagbe Odighizuwa, NY Giants

147) LB Gerod Holliman, Pittsburgh  

148) SS Jordan Richards, New England

149) DT Grady Jarrett, Atlanta

150) RB Keshawn Hill, Kansas City  

 

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151) WR R.J. Harris, New Orleans

152) LB Martell Spaight, Washington

153) RB Dreamius Smith, San Diego  

154) CB Doran Grant, Pittsburgh

155) RB/WR Ross Scheuerman, Pittsburgh  

156) DB Alex Carter, Detroit

157) WR Darius Jennings, Cleveland

18) DB Derron Smith, Cincinnati

159) DT Caushaud Lyons, Tampa Bay

160) WR Jake Kumerow, Cincinnati (new)

161) WR Bradley Marquez, St. Louis (+2 spots)

162) QB Phillip Sims, Arizona  

163) LB Amarlo Herrera, Indianapolis 

164) FS Lorenzo Doss, Denver 

165) TE Nick Boyle, Baltimore

166) TE Matt LaCosse, NY Giants  

167) CB P.J. Williams, New Orleans  

168) TE Raphael Akpejiori, Miami  – 6’9” former Miami, Florida hoops player…5.0+ 40-time, 6.99 three-cone??

169) WR Lucky Whitehead, Dallas  

170) WR Damond Powell, Arizona (-22 spots)

171) RB Luke Lundy, Cleveland  

172) TE Gannon Sinclair, Arizona  

 

 

 

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PLAYERS WE ARE NOT PURSUING (in no particular order)….

 

RB T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville

I’m not a fan of T.J. Yeldon to begin with. He’s nimble, but he should more of a power runner—he isn’t, much like Carlos Hyde. They are not using their body as a weapon to its fullest. To me, it reveals a little lack of heart/effort. Yeldon is not overly fast, or agile, or has great hands…he’s just ‘Alabama’.

If he went to the Cowboys, I’d have to take him more seriously, but on Jacksonville…when will they ever get in scoring position? It’s what helped kill off any higher Toby Gerhart and Dennard Robinson FF-value. Blake Bortles is arguably the worst QB in the NFL, so you likely get nothing here but hope for junk-time stats. 

I don’t think Yeldon is better than Gerhart or Robinson, so he may not see any touches either.

 

QB Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay

I get if someone rolls the FF-dice here in QB-desperation. The QB market did not get fresh, abundant supply in 2015. Winston will start right away…so he’s something. In the end, I cannot not make this pick. I’m not a moralist on his off-field activity. It’s just every instinct I have as America’s ‘QB whisperer’ tells me this is going to be bad–based on his play. I smelled it right away with Blake Bortles, and Winston is just a different version if that. He might have a Josh Freeman blip year within the next three years, but I’ll let someone else ‘enjoy’ it.

Winston has poor mechanics and bad instincts. He has a decent arm and throws balls up for grabs—which is perfect with Tampa Bay, and specifically Mike Evans. He couldn’t have gone to a better place, but with Winston is rising up DRD boards,  I could never willingly do this in the top-20 or so in a DRD—so ‘I’m out’.

 

 

WR Jaelen Strong, Houston

I don’t think Strong is a bust, but I don’t think he’s all that great either. He’s useful, and somewhat limited. There is a reason he fell in the draft.

Strong joins a Houston team that is pro-run game with whatever at QB. Honestly, I couldn’t remember which of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Matt Cassel type guys was at the top of the Texans’ QB depth chart right now. Just found it—it’s Brian Hoyer. Yeah!! No, thanks.

If/when Tom Savage takes over, I’m a little more interested, but that may not be until mid-season or 2016.

 

 

WR Devin Smith, NY Jets

Obviously, Smith is a fantastic catcher on the deep ball in college. He made some terrific, highlight reel catches…about one per game, and that’s about all he’d do in a game. By the end of the 2014-15 seasons/the playoffs, Smith was playing about 50% of the snaps.

His collection of one and two catch games (nine-times out of 14 games in 2014-15), and solid-but-not-special speed/agility somehow garnered him an early 2nd-round draft pick by the Jets. Awesome!

Whatever Smith has to offer, now gets paired with Geno Smith. You can have him. I don’t want him. I cannot believe a team made this pick so highly…I shouldn’t be surprised.

 

LB Benardrick McKinney, Houston

Every time I watch McKinney play—I don’t see a ‘real’ middle linebacker. I’m not sure what I see. He’s not a tackle-machine as an ILB. He is slow on the draw as an OLB covering space. He’s too small for the D-Line. He’s something, but not likely to be FF-exciting anytime soon. His mainstream ‘name’ is going to get him taken too highly in IDPs.

 

RB Josh Robinson, Indianapolis

A 4.70 runner with crappy agility…how do we think this is going to wind up? Robinson is not in the same league as Zurlon Tipton, or Boom Herron…or Frank Gore. This is a hoax by people who love tiny ‘bowling ball’ runners. He worked in college, but he won’t in the NFL.

 

RB Jay Ajayi, Miami

I do fear the medical…plain and simple. We weren’t over the moon on him before, but now throw in ‘issues’ that could end his career pretty quickly—no, thanks.

 

RB David Cobb, Tennessee

A very limited runner—he is Shonn Greene 2.0. Almost no upside here–unless all the other RBs get hurt, and he is forced 15+ carries a game. He is a very limited, straight ahead runner who is not gifted athletically.

 

RB Karlos Williams, Buffalo

The opposite of David Cobb (above)—Williams is a tremendous athlete, with no heart running the ball…and several off-field issues. One of the most tentative RBs I scouted in 2015.

 

 

DL Dante Fowler, Jacksonville

Didn’t didn’t like him at all before, and now with the ACL he’s doomed.

 

LB Shane Ray, Denver

Didn’t didn’t like him before the NFL Draft, and don’t like him in Denver with all his accumulating ‘issues’. Wildly overrated pass-rusher.

 

DE Frank Clark, Seattle

I get the off-field concerns, but that’s only part of the equation. The other thing is—he wasn’t that great a pass rusher in college. He had 9.5 sacks over his final two seasons—25 games. Against Ohio State, Michigan State, and Notre Dame the past two seasons (5 games)…0.0 sacks.

His measurables are OK, not freakish…if he loses weight, perhaps he’ll become more menacing. There is an upside, I just think there is a giant hill to climb here with too many red-flags to take as seriously as a prospect as many others will.

 

TE Nick O’Leary, Buffalo

There is nothing here for the NFL. He’s short and slow. He has heart and decent hands. He’ll be nothing in the NFL but a bit-player, possibly and H-Back.

 

CB Jalen Collins, Atlanta

Jalen Collins is a soft Cornerback with not great skills. He is a solid athlete, but lacks instinct and heart. There’s a reason why he barely started for LSU in his career. ‘LSU hype’ prospect.

 

DL Arik Armstead, San Francisco

In my mind, AA is the worst 1st-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Armstead has some physical tools, but he is one of the most lethargic, unproductive players you will find among the top draft prospects. Perhaps, he gets ‘it’ together, but I don’t think so. The motor and instinct are not there. Every once in a while you see a flash of something ‘special’, but it’s one out of every 50-100 plays.

 

DT Eddie Goldman, Chicago

We just don’t get it. I mean, he’s a big body 6’3”/336 and all…but he didn’t dominate college football. He had 2.5 total tackles per game and 4.0 sacks in 2014…on a team who had athletes on the defensive side much more superior than their opponents. Goldman was ‘just another guy’ for FSU. He measured as a mediocre athlete for his size. He may be a nice plug in the middle, but for Fantasy/IDP, I don’t see where the excitement is going to come from.

 

QB Sean Mannion, St. Louis

83 TD/54 INTs over four-years, and trouble with turnovers throughout. His career summary, by me, is 3.5 crappy seasons and 0.5 good ones. In 2013, his best season by far, in the first seven cupcake games, he posted 29 TDs/3 INTs—which is awesome. His final six games, all against quality opponents: 8 TD/12 INT and a 1-5 record. He looks great dropping back, and terrible releasing the pass. Guaranteed bust. I will allow no wiggle room that we could be wrong here.

 

TE Jesse James, Pittsburgh

4.8+ 40-time runner and 7.5+ three-cone…he’s a blocking Tight End with an occasional TD because he is 6’7”+. Why are some people getting excited about him for Fantasy? Unless he robs a stagecoach or kills a man and takes his horse, then I’m really not that interested.

 

CB Trae Waynes, Minnesota

He’s thin-framed and fast…that’s it. A non-tackler, and not that great in coverage. At best, he’ll be a bad Cornerback. We think he’ll be like a nickel corner on passing downs…no tackles, and maybe 5-10 passes defended. There are also odds he’ll be a bust. Just not a great FF-prospect.

 

WR Bud Sasser, St. Louis      

6/5/15: Released by the Rams due to a heart issue uncovered. He’s free to be picked up by any team, but most likely his career is over before it starts. This long shot just got longer.

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Org. Comments: This could get interesting. Sasser is a poor man’s Jordan Matthews (very poor mans). He joins a team withBrian Quick and Kenny Britt as the incumbent, physically ‘big’ WRs on the Rams. Quick has been up and down, and is coming off an ACL. Britt is the definition of up and down. Sasser may stumble into key playing time right away and be a decent WR for Nick Foles.

Most likely, he will sit behind Quick-Britt this season.

 

TE Tyler Kroft, Cincinnati 

DT Carl Davis, Baltimore

WR Dezmin Lewis, Buffalo

CB Ronald Darby, Buffalo

CB Iko Ekpre-Olomu, Cleveland

LB Kwon Alexander, Tampa Bay

TE Jeff Heuerman, Denver (Out with ACL, but was here just based on talent prior to that)

CB Marcus Peters, Kansas City

WR J.J. Nelson, Arizona  

WR Tony Lippett, Miami

DT Jordan Phillips, Miami

RB Marcus Murphy, New Orleans

LB Hau’oli Kikaha, New Orleans (medical reasons on top of other concerns)

DE Mario Edwards, Oakland

DL Michael Bennett, Jacksonville

LB Taiwan Jones, NY Jets

SS Cody Prewitt, Tennessee

RB Kenny Hilliard, Houston   

QB/RB Cody Fajardo, Oakland

RB Michael Dyer, Oakland

TE Wes Saxton, NY Jets

RB Abou Toure, Indianapolis

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>