Game Lines

College Football Metrics

Fantasy Football Metrics

Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

Dynasty Rookie Draft Mock Draft Mashup 2015-16-17…(Top 30 Final Names)

Air Date:
May 30, 2017

Our dynasty rookie draft mashup of the 2015-2016-2017 prospects only, based on what we know about them today – the performance of the 2015 and 2016 guys in the NFL already and their roster situations mixed with all the sound and fury, and unknowns of the 2017 group.

I’ll be adding a few names to this each day this week until we have a top 30 or so. If there are any changes (up or down on a player) during the reporting period it will be noted.

 

1) RB David Johnson, Arizona

Of course, he’s #1. The rock that I built my fantasy operations on starting in early 2015…as did many of you. If you’re new to CFM, and you missed it…we’ll find more. We were on David Johnson before he was a twinkle in anyone’s eye…and now, with James Conner hitting the Steelers, DJ is clearly the top RB in all fantasy.

 

2) WR Tyreek Hill, Kansas City

As much universal agreement as there is at my #1, there’s total skepticism with Hill sitting at #2…especially, as you see the next 3-4-5 names filing in after Hill.

Will Tyreek really get the targets? Can he really score that many TDs again? People are talking their way out of Hill, which I love because I think he’s a top 5–10 WR for fantasy 2017. One of the great bargains of fantasy football right now.

We’ve never seen anything like Tyreek in the NFL…never. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tavon Austin…nice, cute, but Hill is a better/more explosive athlete and more importantly – his team wants it to happen. The Vikings ignored Cordarrelle. The Falcons underutilized Taylor Gabriel’s hot action last year. Tavon Austin is too thin/frail and doesn’t seem ‘into it’. The Chiefs are just scratching the surface of figuring out what they have their hands on with Tyreek…and the X-factor is that Hill is actually a pretty nice receiver (routes, hands, etc.). He’s the biggest freak in all of fantasy…aside from David Johnson.

60+ catches, 1,000+ receiving yards, 500+ rushing, and 10+ TDs is not a crazy projection for 2017.

Tyreek Hill’s final 9 games of 2016: 5.2 catches, 79.8 total yds, 1.0 TDs per game.

A true WR/RB hybrid living among the WR group.

 

3) QB Dak Prescott, Dallas

Reasons why I have Dak over Mariota for the long haul…

— Dak is physically thicker, stronger…built to last, and Mariota’s been hurt both of his seasons to prove it.

— Prescott is a better all-around passer, in my opinion. He works a traditional style better than Mariota.

— Mariota has a nutty coach who will favor the run, I suspect. Dallas is smart – they are going to build an infrastructure around Dak within two years. They’ll dump Dez, and overhaul their WR group and upgrade from Jason Witten and add a receiving back to complement Elliott (who is wildly overrated in the passing game).

The future is Dak.

 

4) RB Todd Gurley, LA Rams

The ‘entering the 2015 NFL Draft version of Todd Gurley‘ would be ranked ahead of Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette (the other top draft pick RBs from the last three drafts). You might not think that now, here live in 2017. Gurley’s rookie debut didn’t ruin that momentum…it was his 2016 season that killed his buzz.

I think this is the same guy (Gurley) to be excited about from 2015 – he just had the stink of ‘Jeff Fisher‘ all over him – the worst offensive NFL coach of the past decade. Fisher destroyed everything in his path – Gurley, Goff, Foles, etc.

Fortunately, Fisher is gone and a young, hotshot head coach is taking over – one who may be responsible for having taken undervalued prospects Kirk Cousins and Jordan Reed and making them top fantasy producers. With Reed, he created a new category of tight end (the league-wide ‘their Jordan Reed‘ label). If Cousins falls off in 2017 it may be due in part to Sean McVay being gone. If McVay is really a moneymaker…buckle up with Gurley in 2017. He’s a super talent and has absolutely no fear from the depth chart.

 

5) RB Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas

I get that Elliott is in a better place, with a better O-Line and offense than Todd Gurley. I might think Gurley is way more talented, but we all see what ‘the Rams being the Rams‘ did to him in 2016…killed him. At the same time, Elliott became a superstar thanks to the Dallas O-Line…in an unjust world.

I’m betting a lot on the new Rams head coach, and Gurley’s talent…and I like Gurley much better in the passing game/PPR. Elliott is a clunky receiver, just good for screen passes. Gurley has a little more ‘all-over’ capabilities in the passing game. I think Gurley can close some of/surpass the perceived fantasy gap with Elliott via receptions.

I also see the risk with Elliott – he reported to rookie camp overweight last year. Keeps popping up in pictures in places you don’t want him to be at. Has that lingering case with the domestic violence. Elliott is a problem waiting for the media to turn on him…right now they’re covering for him because they’re going to look bad for kissing his ass to the moon the past year. I don’t think Elliott is super talented; Jordan Howard is a better RB. You have a pretty good RB in Elliott, who is a bad human, in a great offense. It will work for a while…until it doesn’t.

I couldn’t draft him because I just can’t stand him, but I have to rank him this high – he’s in a great place and the media loves him…and that, sadly, has a lot to do with usage and perceptions.

 

6) WR Amari Cooper, Oakland

I hem and haw on how highly to rank Amari Cooper. All I know is – he is one of the most gifted WRs in the NFL. At some point, that’s going to pay off consistently for fantasy…I think…I hope. He cannot lose out to Michael Crabtree over the long haul. He is the real ‘next Antonio Brown‘ waiting to happen.

 

7) QB Marcus Mariota, Tennessee

Had he not had his seasons cut short with injury his first two years, I might have Mariota a touch higher…and you (and me) would feel a lot better about making this investment.

Mariota is surrounded with top-flight weapons now, so it’s down to the coach and his affinity for the run game. Mariota has proven he is a high-end passer. He is. 45 TD/19 INTs in his career. He hasn’t thrown for a ton of yards per game in his career, but he’s also had garbage to throw to for WRs for the most part. They were running with Tajae Sharpe and Andre Johnson the first 25–50% of 2016 season. Weapons are not an issue anymore.

I was a Big Ben-Russell Wilson combo for fantasy 2016, last preseason…I like a Dak-Mariota combo (talent-wise) for 2017 and beyond. ‘The future’…for a better price than trying to acquire Andrew Luck.

 

8) LB Jatavis Brown, San Diego

If anyone gave Jatavis the respect he deserved in the scouting community (wasn’t invited to the Senior Bowl or NFL Combine…and was thus a 5th-round pick), he would have started day one…and had he played all 16 games – he would have been the 2016 Defensive Rookie of the Year. If only Jatavis had gone to Alabama, he’d be a star.

Considering there were two games last season where he was basically a bit player – Jatavis really played like 10 games. In those 10 games, he was on a pace for a 16-game season of 120+ tackles, 10 PDs, 5.5 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. He’s a fantastic linebacker. One of the best for fantasy in the league…may be the single best producer at linebacker in 2017.

 

9) RB Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville

Fournette should be ahead of Ezekiel Elliott here, but alas he is not. The difference of Jacksonville vs. Dallas on the O-Line is a big part; the QB is the other. Blake Bortles is not getting you into close scoring position as often as Dak PrescottWhat if the Jags replace Bortles next year? I love it…but what if the replacement is as bad as or worse than Bortles? Gun to my head, I’d probably take Fournette over Elliott, because I hate EE…but the smart money leans Elliott over Fournette.

In addition, Fournette’s not much for PPR…so you gotta get the TDs to turbocharge him. Hard to see big TD totals in Jacksonville right away.

 

10) RB Jordan Howard, Chicago

So, why Fournette over Howard?

I think Fournette’s draft status has value…his team won’t try to secretly replace him the second he has a bad game/stretch. Both have below-average hands in the passing game, so a lot riding on yards and scoring TDs. For as great as Howard was last season, he rushed for 6 TDs. John Fox was taking him out in goal line situations. Fournette will struggle to get TDs as well, until Blake Bortles has a stake put into his heart.

You want to take Howard over Fournette (or Elliott), I wouldn’t stop you. I love the guy. One of our top sleepers for fantasy last preseason. I got no beef. I fear John Fox will try to work against us…

 

11) WR Tyrell Williams, San Diego

My first instincts on Tyrell, post-Mike Williams draft pick, was to run into a corner and cry. I whined about it for a few days. Suddenly, it hit me… Why am I letting Mike Williams and Keenan Allen worry me? Why am I letting slightly better Laquon Treadwell and perpetually injured Keenan Allen spook me? All I need is one of them to fail and I would feel so much better.

Whether they fail or not is a separate issue…one that clouds us away from a fact that Tyrell Williams is a stud/elite tendencies WR prospect/reality. When I barked those very same words about Tyrell in 2015, as the Chargers cut him initially…you pulled up a chair to curiously watch the outcome. By Week 4 of the 2016 season, my genius was reconfirmed in your eyes.

Tyrell is not just ‘good’ and had mountains moved for him in 2016 – Tyrell is the mountain. He is potentially great. Plus, it’s not speculation anymore…you saw 2016…it’s a fact. 2016 was just a taste. Don’t undersell Tyrell. Acquire him while the prices are bottomed.

Has any UDFA, 1000+ yard receiver in his debut season…coming off the bench…ever been so universally dismissed? F the football establishment. Tyrell Williams is the reason why they aren’t very good at this and WE’RE changing the game…without them.

Jack Nicholson from A Few Good Men will read that last paragraph at my funeral as I die penniless and surrounded by my adoring cats…as Michelle Tafoya laughs from her mansion with her multi-million-dollar retirement made from her football analysis…

 

12) TE O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay

You can feel it, right? It’s palpable.

O.J. Howard has lost momentum since the NFL Draft. I’m not sure why, and people didn’t fully love him prior, but Howard is putting people to sleep…and that may be the time to strike.

Yes, rookie tight ends struggle to get out of the gates. But it’s also true that Maxx Williams was the draft’s best TE prospect for people a few years ago…back when there were 0–1 ‘good’, traditional TE prospects per draft. Tight end draft prospects sucked so bad all us fantasy scouts did was try to find big WRs and basketball players and hope they became some kind of new age Antonio Gates or Jimmy Graham. We did so out of necessity, a barren wasteland.

There are rare few legit TE prospects in a draft, and rookie tight ends stink as rookies for fantasy, right? Well, 2017 taught us there were about 5–10 reasonable-to-very-interesting TE prospects. So, maybe it’s not a ‘rookie curse’ on tight ends…maybe it’s just that college tight ends sucked for the most part? What happens when they don’t anymore?

Look at my list… No tight ends in the top 10. Guess what? This is the only tight end in my top 30, as of my first go ’round. There is a top tight end deficit in fantasy and O.J. Howard may be the right guy at the right place at the right time. The economics of this warrants we take Howard more seriously. He’s maybe the best ‘traditional’ (not Jordan Reed-esque) tight end I’ve ever scouted. That’s gotta be worth something?

*If you’re wondering why I have Samaje Perine ahead of O.J. Howard on our 2017 rookie rankings, but OJH ahead of Perine here…well, I just changed my mind after considering it more today. Perine was right here yesterday. If I still feel it…OJH will be #2 on 2017 DRD rankings 3.0. Perine-Howard, either one is a great top 3 prospect for 2017.

 

13) RB Samaje Perine, Washington

Samaje Perine is the Jordan Howard for 2017.

Jordan Howard is proven, and Perine is not.

It all looks clear for Perine as the feature back starting opening day, but let’s see. For that reason, he has to be behind Howard. There’s no way Robert Kelley can push Perine, I don’t care what the media says…but stranger things have happened.

The Redskins have a solid O-Line and other real RB talent on the depth chart — so this may be an excellent crime of opportunity for Perine in 2017. He will get dinged for being ‘no Christian McCaffery in the passing game‘, but McCaffrey cannot hold a candle to Perine as a power runner. However, Perine is a great blocker so he may be in a lot on third-downs, way more than anyone realizes…and with that enough targets to push his FF numbers. He could be the Rookie of the Year.

Washington could sign a veteran cast-off RB and bring this whole thing crashing down.

 

14) RB Christian McCaffrey, Carolina

I’m a fan of McCaffrey like most normal people, but I marvel how he has gone from ‘better than you think‘ to ‘the greatest receiving back in the history of football‘ in the media. He isn’t as good a receiver as Rex Burkhead, but he is faster. Somehow that has translated into ‘future Hall fo Famer’ all of a sudden.

McCaffrey should be on this top 30 list later than this spot, but I’m telling you the media hysteria is going to make this push to the top 15 happen. The Carolina coaches won’t be able to breathe without people asking about McCaffrey. Every loss will be blamed on not getting McCaffrey the ball. Every play he doesn’t get the ball the media will wonder out loud why he didn’t get the ball. McCaffrey has gone from undervalued to the most overvalued rookie who has ‘real’ talent of 2017.

I’d draft and trade McCaffrey. His reality cannot live up to his hype.

If you keep McCaffrey, you’ll be fine…I think. He’ll get 5-10 carries and 5+ targets a game. Could lineup as a WR some. If not for the Cam factor, I’d be all-in on McCaffrey as a top 12 PPR back. He might be, regardless. Take him over Perine in a PPR if you desire. The risk is, besides Cam…McCaffrey is a just a small receiving back who does little in the run game and has spurts of targets out of the backfield.

 

15) LB Kwon Alexander, Tampa Bay

I wasn’t a fan of Kwon Alexander at all coming out of LSU. I guess when I think about it…it might be one of my worst misses in recent scouting. He’s been fantastic, statistically. I didn’t think he’d start in the NFL. He has been 100x better in the pros than in the college.

For his short career, Kwon is pushing 10+ tackles a game, 8-10 PDs per season, he gets 3-4 sacks and picks off 1-2 passes. He does a little of everything. If you have Kwon and Jatavis as your linebackers, you arguably have the best stat producing LBs in all IDP.

Has a four-game suspension for P.E.D.s in his past, so he’s not totally clean here.

 

16) RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati

He might be the most Ezekiel Elliott RB of the 2017 class. But how valuable would Elliott have been on the Bengals with their degenerating O-Line and uninspiring offensive plan circa 2016?

Mixon will get the push, you’d think…but what if Mixon is just ‘good’ and not a god? A ‘good’ RB behind a bad O-Line with other capable RBs on the roster? It’s no guarantee that Mixon is going to start Week 1 of 2017 and rush for 1,400+ yards and 10+ TDs. He’s got a tough situation/offense to fall in with and he’s a media creation – how is it that Mixon is ‘the best RB in this class’ (so says many in the media; just that pesky off-field issue) and yet Samaje Perine was much better in the same exact offense – and the media doesn’t care a wit about Perine? Perine is the best RB on the Redskins roster, and Mixon may or may not be the best on the Bengals…and yet the Mixon push is hotter than ever.

Is anyone wondering whether Mixon is too immature or inexperienced for the big spotlight and the big money? No, of course not. Only Mitch Trubisky is a problem because of lack of starting time…noted college knuckleheads who got bounced from Oklahoma early, Joe Mixon or Dorial Green-Beckhamno, problemo that they didn’t work a normal college schedule you’d ‘like’ to see.

 

17) LB Eric Kendricks, Minnesota

Kendricks is very capable of leading the NFL in tackles. He’s shown signs of being a consistent 8-10+ a game tackler in spurts. He also is terrific in coverage for an ILB (9 PDs last season) and can get to the QB if asked – 6.5 sacks in his two seasons. Kendricks is nearly the perfect middle linebacker prospect. When a new coach hits Minnesota in 2018, he could be even better.

You want to take Kendricks over Alexander? I wouldn’t stop you.

 

18) DB Byron Jones, Dallas

If Jones stays at safety (not hybrid safety), he might be the best pure safety for fantasy in all the league. When Barry Churchgot hurt, Jones went from hybrid to more pure safety and his numbers started to rise – 7.3 tackles per game the second-half of the 2016 season. He also had 10 PDs on the season to go with the rising tackle counts. Jones is the best athlete at safety in the league.

The fantasy risk – Dallas moves him to corner, but that looks more and more like it won’t happen.

 

19a) WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams

Why Kupp over Corey Davis-Cameron Meredith? Why the letters next to the numbers?

The letters are because I could argue any order on them. There’s a strong case for each to be ahead of the other.

Why Kupp ahead? He’s the one from this cluster that is clearly the best WR on his team, as currently constituted. The Rams took him with purpose. The new coaching staff loves him. He’s an ultra-talented, professional WR. He has a chance to rise up because of the target levels he’ll see. People downgrade him because of the 40-time (4.6) but overlook his insanely great three-cone/agility. He’s going to be a better version of Eric Decker, and Decker has been sneaky great for years (pre-injury). The floor for performance is low. He will almost certainly not fail.

 

19b) WR Corey Davis, Tennessee

The argument for Davis overall is he might be a really tall version of Antonio Brown. I just wish I had the measurables to confirm or deny. I say, “Really tall Antonio,” and you get excited. If I say, “As good as Jordan Matthews” you wouldn’t be as excited…but Jordan Matthews is a really good/great NFL WR who the media hated from his first day into the NFL…so, therefore, most people aren’t excited by JMatt. Same thing could happen to Corey Davis.

I believe in Davis, but I also know that Marcus Mariota has Rishard MatthewsTaywan TaylorDelanie Walker and a pair of nice RBs to work as well. Mariota is likely not to push all his targeting to Davis…not in any way like Ben-Antonio.

 

19c) WR Cameron Meredith, Chicago

Meredith is the one who is a proven star-like WR of this cluster already. If you really watched him work last year – he was DeAndre Hopkins, only better. Only, people ignore him because he’s a UDFA so he doesn’t get afforded those accolades. Because the media ignores him, his team might as well. Meredith should be ranked ahead of the #19 WRs, but he’s not because ‘NFL coaching stupidity‘ plays a factor.

Don’t tell me it doesn’t exist…Meredith was on the bench for 1+ seasons despite the fact that he was clearly better than everyone they had. They ‘figured it out‘ when everyone got hurt and they had to play him. That should be the Bears corporate motto – “The best offensive weapons we discovered by accident because we didn’t see it coming at all” (Jordan Howard, Cameron Meredith, Daniel Brown/Zach Miller). It’s wordy but effective.

 

20) DE Joey Bosa/Myles Garrett

Pick one or the other…or both here. Very similar prospects, but Myles Garrett is the better athletic profile…but Bosa already proved he can produce. If you own Garrett, you pray he puts up numbers like Bosa in 2016. If they both stay classified as ‘DEs’ then good-to-go. If shifted to ‘OLB’ for IDP, you’ll cry. They are pass rushers only not all-around tackle accumulators, etc.

 

21) RB Jay Ajayi, Miami

I’m not a huge Ajayi fan, but I have eyes…I saw what happened when Miami had their O-Line intact/healthy. Ajayi went from a 40-50 yard per game runner to popping a few 200+ yards in a game guy. Nothing really changed with the Miami’s offense this offseason besides Julius Thomas added. If the O-Line is healthy there’s no reason Ajayi won’t work. The head coach is in love with him, and they didn’t make any moves towards other RBs in the draft or free agency.

The downside – Ajayi’s supposed degenerative knee. If I had Ajayi, I would be trying to trade him/package him for a hot RB that I liked better…Gurley, David Johnson, etc.

 

22) WR Curtis Samuel, Carolina

One of the sudden, great sleepers of the top names for dynasty rookie draft. He works as a #2 WR, and a just-as-speedy-but-tougher version of John Ross. In addition, you have a guy that could work as a running back. Imagine, if Christian McCaffrey went down…Samuel would zoom. Why? Because he works like McCaffrey…worse hands (but fine) but much faster/dangerous. He’s becoming one of my most intriguing prospects of this year’s rookie draft to me. Sliding in value in the wake of the McCaffrey hysteria.

 

23) LB Haason Reddick, Arizona

An intriguing ILB. He’s a convert from undersized college DE. He has high-end speed for an ILB with the experience of a pass rusher. He did drop in coverage in college. He has shown to be a very good tackler. Reddick is going right into the starting lineup day one, I suspect. He’s going to produce quickly…that matters.

 

24) RB D’Onta Foreman, Houston

The strength of Foreman being up this highly is somewhat due to the soft target that Lamar Miller is for him to take out. I’m not sure he’ll be able to wipe out Miller in Week 1 of 2017, but eventually, Foreman is going to be the workhorse runner for the Texans, and that might be 2018…but it’s going to happen. If Lamar Miller was down and out for the season right now, just announced…how far up the list would he go? Ahead of Perine…or just behind it? Foreman’s value is tied to what is going on and how you perceive Miller as a threat.

 

25) WR Corey Coleman, Cleveland

I’m starting to get excited by Coleman again…I just wish he was in a better situation with a better QB/coach. On the bright side – he is the Browns best WR, clearly…gone are Terrelle Pryor and Josh Gordon (essentially).

Coleman is a debate on how Brandin Cooks-like he is. I watch Coleman and I see a lesser version of Cooks and Odell Beckham…but I see upside signs of Coleman being like those guys (without the quality of QB play). I’m getting excited, but reticent on the QB play and the franchise in general.

 

26a) WR Zay Jones, Buffalo

It might be that Zay Jones is the better version of Stefon Diggs – good hands, routes, savvy but with a better-measured athleticism all the way around. I love Zay Jones, but I think I hate him landing in Buffalo. However, I’m starting to warm up to the idea. I like Sean McDermott’s ice cold, Michael Corleone activities since taking over the Bills. When he denied Sammy Watkins’ 5th-year option, he had my attention. Maybe, McDermott is going to turn this thing around…quick…into a respectable, winning franchise.

Maybe not.

McDermott drafted Jones highly, so he is committed…I like that. However, I additionally love it because they made that pick knowing that they were giving Watkins a giant kick in the arse. Jones has a chance to be the Bills #1 WR of the future. Jones is a talent and with a path to become an impact player with his supportive coaches. Some talented guys land in bad places…Zay landed well, I think.

 

26b) WR Stefon Diggs, Minnesota

Has a chance to be Antonio Brown, but I’m starting to worry…for four reasons…

1) Recent reports of being lazy, not as dedicated to his craft starting to leak out this year.

2) He was a radical underperformer in college, which makes me worry about point #1

3) Adam Thielen, suddenly, finally exists. And I’d argue Thielen is a Pro Bowl level WR. If Diggs can be the next Antonio Brown…Thielen can be the next Jordy Nelson. Are there enough targets to go around with Sam Bradford and Mike Zimmer?

4) Sam Bradford is awful and Teddy Bridgewater may never play again. If Diggs stays in Minnesota…when will they have a real QB? It might not be for years…

 

28) TE Evan Engram, NY Giants

I don’t think Evan Engram will ever be mistaken for a real tight end – too small, terrible blocker. BUT…I don’t care as long as he moves around like a WR and puts his 4.4+ speed to work…and if they call him a tight end for fantasy purposes. There are not many TE prospects who run in the 4.4s and were taken highly by their team to be used on purpose. Because of that, you have to take Engram seriously.

I’m a little worried he’ll struggle in the ‘true’ TE role in the NFL, but I can’t ignore the 4.4+ speed. It’s like not liking John Ross as a receiver, thinking he’s a mediocre technician, but still taking him because he ran a 4.2+, and maybe that means something great even though the tape says “Meh.” Engram is the TE version of that…and there’s a lot fewer TEs in the world than WRs. Engram has supply/demand value.

 

29) RB Tevin Coleman, Atlanta

Coleman can exist for fantasy splitting with Devonta Freeman…he proved that last season. Where the win could come here is if Coleman gets the main workload treatment. He’s a great runner of the ball, and he has surprised everyone with WR-like skills out of the backfield. He’s faster, has better hands and is bigger than Freeman – he should be the lead.

If Coleman splits with Freeman you have an RB2-3. If he gets over on Freeman, which he always seems close before the rug gets pulled…then he’s an RB1.

 

30a) QB Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago

I believe in Trubisky, but I fear the John Fox influence. However, we could see the end of Fox after 2017. Trubisky was drafted with purpose – he’ll get his chance the moment he’s ready…and that’s likely 2018 because Fox needs an experienced QB (Glennon) to help him keep his job now. 2018 should bring about a new head coach…one designed to work with Trubisky.

Why Trubisky over Jared Goff? I like Goff too…and I like Sean McVay joining in. I lean Trubisky over Goff long-term for one reason – Trubisky can run a la Aaron Rodgers. You could get 1-2 FF PPG extra with Tribusky over Goff due to the rushing totals. I’ll take Goff for FF 2017, but Trubisky 2018 on.

 

30b) RB Dwayne Washington, Detroit

I remember putting a similar mashup report together last year, early, and I had Tyrell Williams as a top 30 player. At the time, Williams was not on any radar.

Keenan Allen nor Stevie Johnson had gotten hurt yet.

Travis Benjamin had been signed.

There seemed to be little hope/love for Tyrell at the time. At a certain point, you have to bet that elite talent will win the day…or you die trying. What…do I take another ‘good’ WR or RB…or do I go for the throat with something I feel could be a future superstar?

I don’t know and I don’t know when, and I don’t know how many years I’ll have to complain about it and I don’t know how years we’ll be holding on with Washington on our last roster spot wondering if we should cut him and try to get him back later…but worried someone else would cash in on our hard work/long-time investment. I don’t know any of those things. I do know that I see something special with DW, and I want in on it where I can afford to. Ameer Abdullah be damned.

 

Surprising names not in the top 30…

Kenneth Dixon – The suspension. Terrance West. Danny Woodhead. John Harbaugh’s offense. I like Dixon, but man it does not look as promising anymore. I’m sure I’ll see different in 2018, but 2017 looks scary dull.

Melvin Gordon – The worst starting RB in the NFL, period.

Michael Thomas – He’s a ‘C’ WR talent in an ‘A’ offense, but now forced to be a #1 WR…and that’s not his spot. This is going to be bad.

Josh Doctson – He would be #32-33 on the list. I just want to see him work against NFL talent to be sure. He may really be a top 25-30 guy here, but we need to see for confirmation.

Landon Collins – Nice tackle counts last year, and then had a hot streak of INTs mid-season…that was more of a lucky stretch, I believe. I’m not a huge fan but I cannot deny his 2016 – the top IDP scoring DB in fantasy in 2016. I’d be a seller into 2017. The metrics just do not support sustained excellence here.

Derick Henry — Like the player OK, but hate the situation. I probably should have had him in the top 30 but I think he’s going to sit in purgatory for a year or two. His case for the top 30 is — if DeMarco goes down, Henry is a fringe TE1 with that very good O-Line.

 

 

It won’t be long now… 2017 Fantasy Football Draft Guide time is nearly upon us! Our seventh annual edition over at Fantasy Football Metrics.com. It’s a fantasy draft guide like none other – updated nearly every day from our June launch to opening kickoff. 500+ players projected with thousands of words of commentary for the 2017 season based on our tape scouting, computer models for the 2017 season and the schedule impact. We nailed it out of the gates on Jordan Howard, Tyrell Williams, Rishard Matthews and so many more – pulling sleepers out of thin air and avoiding many landmines. And of course, David Johnson as our ‘top guy’ for 2016…just like we had him rated higher than anyone else in the dynasty rookie draft in 2015, a major sleeper in our 2015 fantasy football draft guide and ranked #1 among all fantasy options going into 2016…we never wavered. You need to know about these guys before everyone else…not debating how high to rank them once they are stars – anyone can do that. We find talent and value year-round, ahead of the masses.

Coming in early June 2017, so start the countdown! We have several new ‘things’ planned for 2017. It’s going to be our most ambitious draft guide package ever. It won’t be long now…

Table:

Tags:

About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>