There was no access to Senior Bowl action on Wednesday due to the terrible storms in Mobile, so I have no practice observations. In lieu of that, I will push my 1st-round Senior Bowl Mock Draft from a Dynasty perspective -- 10 picks/a top 10, but I’m going to give you a bonus here that won’t be shared on my FantasyPros top 5 assessment that will run Friday.
The bonus will be after my top 10 Dynasty draft picks, and it will be a quick scouting observation on the mainstream top guys at RB (my first take on Josh Jacobs), at WR (D.K. Metcalf), and at TE (Noah Fant)…and discuss the early economics of the Dynasty Rookie Draft 2019 (should you pursue the #1 pick, should you trade out of the 1st-round no matter your draft spot, etc.?)
First the top 10, as of my preview scouting + one day of practice observation (all subject/will change in the days ahead…and my Friday FantasyPros article could be different from what I might glean thru Thursday morning when I wrote this).
The 2019 Senior Bowl Dynasty Draft Top 10 (plus looks at Jacobs, Metcalf, Fant)…
1) WR Andy Isabella, UMass (North)
I could argue Penny Hart looks more intriguing to me, but considering Isabella is likely to be taken top 50 in the NFL Draft overall with a purpose, and that purpose is to catch a lot of passes…I’m going to lean Isabella if we’re drafting today. He has a chance to catch 100+ passes a year, easily…and starting his rookie season.
…if he lands in a decent+ offense.
Eyeball Test Comp = A better Julian Edelman
2) DE Montez Sweat, Mississippi State (South)
He’s definitely the IDP standout so far in Mobile. Impressive physique (6’6”/252, 84”+ wingspan), lean, sleek, quick. Nearly unblockable here. Can rush the passer and chases the run as well.
He’s moving up to be a 1st-round, possible top 10 overall NFL Draft pick…and, with that, he’ll be expected to start right away and give an ROI immediately. Should be a 4-3 DE classification and not stuck a 3-4 OLB, which would hurt his IDP status if classified as ‘LB’.
Eyeball Test Comp = A better Danielle Hunter? Better/taller Bradley Chubb?
3) WR Penny Hart, Georgia State (North)
A really talented WR, a true playmaker…a little Tyreek Hill-ish/Tarik Cohen-ish, except not nearly as speedy and that’s going to hurt the NFL upside potential (but we need to see what he really is at the NFL Combine).
1,000+ yards in his freshman year and then again as a junior. Down senior year (669 rec. yards/2 TDs) because his team barely had functioning QB play.
Eyeball Test Comp = What Chicago wishes Anthony Miller was…a #3 WR weapon. A much lesser Christian Kirk. Tarik Cohen as a WR?
4) WR Keelan Doss, UC Davis (North)
Doss could wind up to be the #1 on this list post-NFL Combine or just when reality hits/they hit the NFL. Doss has the size and movement skills of a #1 WR in the NFL, but he’s still a bit raw playing at a lower level of college play.
Good hands. Good routes. High character. Add 5-10 pounds of muscle and he may be the best WR from the 2019 NFL Draft…but there are SO many good+ WR prospects this year.
Eyeball Test Comp = Andre Johnson (former Texans star WR)
5) WR Jalen Hurd, Baylor (Will not play due to injury)
A former star RB for the Tennessee Volunteers (1,285 yards and 12 TDs rushing in 2015 in the SEC). Got hurt, lost his main carry job to a split role, transferred to Baylor and converted to WR. Went to Mobile for the weigh-ins and meetings – came in at 6’4.5”/227 with 10 1/8” hands…wow.
Had a nice season at WR for Baylor (69-946-4) as a receiver, but also took plays at running back as a gimmick weapon AND as just a goal line threat (48-209-3).
How many prospects rushed for 1,000+ yards in the SEC and then switched to WR and almost posted 1,000+…and are nearly 6’5”/227 with giant hands? The possibilities for him as an offensive weapon on every play are tantalizing. He has a case that he should be #1 on this list.
Eyeball test Comp = Dante Pettis-ish, but taller…used to run/look like Matt Forte as an RB.
6) TE Donald Parham, Stetson (North)
Going to reach here… Why not? How many athletic 6’8” tight ends are there in the NFL?
Another guy in Mobile who is so raw…but you can get away with that at WR early in the NFL, not as much as a TE hitting the NFL. Blocking is an issue because he’s essentially Harold Carmichael (throw back name for the aged among us) playing tight end.
Parham would need to land with an offense/head coach with the vision to use him as a weapon, not groom him for three years to learn how to block better (see: Dallas and Rico Gathers). The NFL rarely sees weapons in tight end athletes, they prefer big blocky TE prospects they can use as blockers for extra points. Because of the NFL’s lack of vision on these type of things…it’s a ‘reach’ here.
…but if the ‘reach’ pays off – you might get a radical TE for fantasy here.
Eyeball Test Comp = Taller Jared Cook but with Jeff Cumberland inexperience.
**Four of the top 6 prospects listed here are from UMass, Georgia State, UC Davis, and Stetson. The talent flood from college football is upon the NFL…and they don’t realize it. They should start expanding to 34 teams to get ahead of it…on their way to 36-40 teams over the next decade. But they won’t see it in time.**
7) LB David Long, West Va. (South)
My best bet, right now, as the OLB from this game that could start day one in the NFL and be a great tackle accumulator plus can get in on TFLs for IDP scoring. They don’t call him ‘Mr. TFL’ for nothing (35.0 TFLs that past two seasons combine, 18.5 TFLs in 2018).
Eyeball Test Comp = A little Bobby Wagner-ish, maybe?
8) RB Tony Pollard, Memphis (North)
Not the best RB here, per se, but the one best set up for fantasy success in PPR from this game.
8 rushing TDs, 7 receiving TDs, 5 punt return TDs combined in his last two season…with 7+ yards per carry average. He’s just a playmaker. He’s only 6’0”/200, and it doesn’t look like he’s moving that fast…but he just has a knack for making plays, big plays. Can catch the ball, can run it a limited amount of times as well, plus is a dangerous return man. What’s not love?
Eyeball Test Comp = James White with more play-making ability?
9) RB Dexter Williams, Notre Dame (North)
Had a lot of the same feel (on tape), just not as a good, as Josh Adams. Like a shrunken Josh Adams (3 inches shorter). Great ability to find holes and blast through them. However, if Adams got snubbed in the draft…Williams might be overlooked as well. OR the ‘miss’ by everyone but me had on Adams is made up for by paying more attention to Williams.
Eyeball Test Comp = Shrunken, lesser Josh Adams…thicker Tevin Coleman?
10) LB Deshaun Davis, Auburn (South)
Very good linebacker, and has the SEC pedigree…so, he’ll be drafted to start right away. If an NFL team can get suckered by Jarrad Davis as a 1st-round pick/instant starter, then a team will properly buy into Deshaun Davis and you’ll get quick IDP impact. Good instincts, good hitter, good middle linebacker.
Eyeball Test Comp = Demario Davis, Anthony Walker
11) QB Gardner Minshew, Washington State – The best QB here…for putting up silly numbers in the future for FF. Used to the aid raid style.
12) TE Tommy Sweeney, Boston College – He may deserve to be top 10. I love the way he catches the ball…underutilized in college like most college TEs. Nice upside here, just not a stallar athlete at TE.
13) WR Gary Jennings, West Va. – Just impressed with some of the flashes I saw. Not likely to get a great chance to play early on.
14) WR Deebo Samuel, South Carolina – Higher-end speed…shows to be beating people deep in Mobile, and that’s good for some instant FF impact landing in the right spot.
15) DT Daylon Mack, Texas A&M – Almost put #10 because he’s such a freak but I don’t think he’ll get enough IDP numbers to matter. His gift is busting up the O-Line blocking.
Bonus look at top RB-WR-TE prospects for the mainstream and a look at the state of the Dynasty Rookie Draft 2019 crop, a very early overall market reaction…
RB Josh Jacobs, Alabama – Looks like a very good NFL RB prospect. The best RB in this class? Maybe. His teammate Damien Harris may be better. There’s probably a guy who didn’t play at Alabama, lurking, as the best RB in the draft class. I’ve only looked at a few so far, but Jacobs could be the best judging by a quick preview glance.
Eyeball Test Comp = Lesser Ezekiel Elliott…better/more agile Derrius Guice. Joe Mixon-ish?
The state of the RB draft class is fairly weak at this point. There are no ‘wow’ prospects (to me, yet) but plenty of ‘useful’/good ones…guys who fall right and get a push of workload and they could be great right away. I’d rather invest in undervalued existing NFL RBs for fantasy than reach for anyone in this draft right now. It’s possible none from 2019 are drafted to start day one for the NFL teams.
WR D.K. Metcalf, Miss State – I see the size/athleticism. I also clearly see all kinds of issues…and I see a potentially worse fraud version of Laquon Treadwell. If you like WRs who run deep down the left side all the time and occasionally catch a long ball…this is your guy, I guess?
Eyeball Test Comp = A Laquon Treadwell/Sammie Coates mashup at this point for me. The NFL Combine might change my tune a bit. I just think he’s really athletic…but so are 10+ other talented WR prospects for this draft.
The state of the WR draft class may be the best in years…and every year college is unloading more WR talent into the NFL. There’s not much room for them to go to and make an impact. Some NFL team’s #2 and #3 WR today might be one of the 10 best WR talents in the league in the 1990s. Plenty of talent and hard to predict their future early because whether you land with Aaron Rodgers or Blake Bortles is everything.
TE Noah Fant, Iowa – Still one of the best looking TEs, in movement skills, I’ve ever seen. For me, today, this is the clear, best TE prospect for FF in 2019. An instant star in the right spot.
Eyeball Test Comp = A mashup of O.J. Howard and Evan Engram.
The state of the TE draft class is not overflowing like QB-RB-WR, for fantasy, at this point in my studies. Fant is ‘the one’. For me, Noah Fant and Kyler Murray are everything on this Dynasty draft…and then could be undercut by landing in bad places in the draft. Especially, Fant.
The early look at the Dynasty draft, right now, is…Murray and Fant, and then I really don’t care about anyone else. Plenty of talent late 1st-round/2nd-round (and beyond) to take at WR in Dynasty drafts this year. I’m sure some ‘good’ prospect will land ‘great’ and I’ll get excited…but impossible to predict that ahead.
The NFL Combine is going to separate the wheat from the chaff at all the positions, but right now I see a lot of ‘B’ talent hitting a league overflowing with ‘B’ talents. Landing spots will mean everything. In general, wouldn’t it be smarter to take players established in their spot then try to guess at a bunch of ‘Bs’?