The Answer to the #1 Most Asked Question This Past Week (about Kyler Murray)…
You have pick number whatever 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9 in the 1st-round of the 2019 Dynasty Rookie Draft. You also have a second pick soon after…like you have a top 5 pick plus the #8-12 or #10-15, etc.
I know what you’re trying to do…
I know you took your eyes off me and looked down and saw you were walking on water…but get your eyes back on me!
You are wanting to use your first rookie pick to try to nab Parris Campbell and use the second/later one to get Murray…because “Quarterbacks don’t go this high in my Rookie Drafts!”
I know they don’t. Your statement is true…and totally irrelevant to right here, right now 2019.
You might be able to get Parris Campbell at 1.06, and then land Kyler Murray at 1.10 or 2.02 or whatever. I don’t dispute the possibility. However, I don’t care.
YOU HAVE ONE JOB…get Kyler Murray. If you pay a little more than you had to, so what!? Will there be some jackass in your league, armed with his ESPN insider subscription, who types into the draft chat that the pick was stupid, and 10 picks earlier than you needed to? Yes…because he’s always there making comments on everything because he’s so informed.
There’s always a jackass expert spouting off on everything…based on his worldview. Who cares? He’s always wrong…he’s just vocal. You can’t run your team afraid of what the jackass says…he’s going to mock everything anyway. He’s the same guy or gal that offers you a trade and types in commentary on the deal send about how good the deal is for you. Thanks…jackass…appreciate your concern for my well-being…
If you’ve been with me for a while…you’re mostly over this concern. You’ve become the Belichick of your league, and everyone marvels at what you do and never mocks it because you have a multiple year history of being a genius on player scouting. Even with that…the one jackass can’t help himself.
I write this 75% for new FFM/CFM members. You’re new to us, and like the bravado but aren’t sure because ‘no one else is saying this’. I get it. I’ve also got a decade that says my favorite words in the English language are ‘no one else is saying this’. If you’re going to build a real dynasty – you gotta stop trying to outdo everyone in your league using the same strategy and scouting…and you luckily doing it better than them. It’s time to use a different, better path.
I also write this for the other 25% not new people...the people that have been here a while, and you’re trying to get Parris first then Kyler, to be savvy…or you’re chickening out because you were in a draft last week or yesterday where Kyler went #13 or #18, and you don’t want to pay a #1-2-3-4-5 for him. I get all that. I want both players and I hate overpaying. I’m with you.
This is one of the rare instances where you overpay for a player…not just because we think they’re really good. This is a potential transformational, generational, nuclear bomb of a fantasy talent…maybe once in a decade. He could easily lead all fantasy in scoring this year…with distance.
It’s talent PLUS the situation with Kliff Kingsbury. I would not be advocating for this as strong if he were drafted by Jacksonville or Buffalo or Carolina, etc. This is chocolate and peanut butter coming together to make magic. Kyler + Arizona/Kingsbury/all the WRs they just added.
Save your email on…”Should I really take Murray #1-2-3-4-5-6-7…” My answer is always absolutely, defiantly, “YES!”
Go get Campbell later in a trade.
Don’t worry if you already have Mahomes and Goff/Trubisky/Mayfield/Rodgers. We’re not filling out a BINGO card in proper order. We’re acquiring valuable assets for our vault. You can deal a quarterback for something you need later.
Kyler Murray is going to be a wrecking ball for fantasy scoring and changing fantasy strategies for the future. You’re getting in way ahead of the crowd. I’m counting on them ALL missing it, so of course they’ll miss it/not understand it today – it’s why you can pull this off reasonable this year.
Not everyone is missing it. I see Murray going as high as #1 today, as low as #18-20…and mostly ranging from #4-14 this very day as I type. He’s all over the place. You DON’T know where he is going in your draft. You may think you do, but you don’t. You can’t. It’s too variable.
If you get cute and miss out on Murray, you’re going to be incensed. Don’t do that to yourself. Don’t risk missing Murray by trying to get Campbell-then-Murray. You get Murray first, then whatever you want, however you want to do things after that is fine – that’s the answer to all your “Should I take Murray this high questions?” Murray first, then everything else second.
Remember all your fighting me on/worrying about taking Tyreek Hill a round ahead of everyone/analyst rankings the past two fantasy draft seasons? I also recall people nervous about taking David Johnson 1st-round of rookie drafts a few years ago, when we were the only ones pushing him as a superstar. 99% of the time, in fantasy, I talk/debate ‘value’, and I do things for value (buy or sell)...and I usually advocate trading away high rookie picks for real players -- but sometimes you pay the price today, even if it’s too much – this is one of those times. In September, you won’t be worried about the price you paid in May-June-July.
Take care of the extreme priority, and then roll from there. Now is not the time to get too cute. This is not the player to get cute with.