At College Football Metrics, we want to outperform all other scouting services in correctly evaluating where teams should take prospects in the NFL Draft. But we also want to lead the way in predicting what teams will actually do with their draft picks. In 2015, we made our debut in The Huddle Report’s exclusive, expert-only NFL Draft contests. CFM took 5th place (out of 113) in the mock draft competition and 4th place (out of 56) in the top 100 board competition. In 2016, we want double crowns!
CFM has partnered with Xavier Cromartie (Twitter @xaviercromartie) to produce mock drafts and top 100 prospect boards based on his latest intel, research, and analysis. Xavier was the final grand prize winner of ESPN’s NFL Draft 1st Round Forecast game, and he is the undefeated Play The Draft Champion Emeritus.
Draft scenarios change as new information comes in during draft season, and so we will run updates here as often as Xavier makes adjustments to his mocks and boards.
- Tennessee Titans: LT Laremy Tunsil (Mississippi) Last = 1
I’m not sure who would move up for this pick, unless a team is desperate for Wentz. The only real alternative to Tunsil is Ramsey. Bosa is not an option here.
- Cleveland Browns: QB Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) (+) Last = 15
QB is the only possibility. Wentz is the consensus top QB now.
- San Diego Chargers: DE Joey Bosa (Ohio State) Last = 3
DE is the most valuable position after QB. Take the most valuable talent over the biggest positional need.
- Dallas Cowboys: LB/RB Myles Jack (UCLA) Last = 4
Jack fills two needs: a guy who transforms a defense and a goal-line RB.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: S Jalen Ramsey (Florida State) Last = 5
Safeties don’t usually go this early, but Ramsey is a guaranteed top 9 pick. The Jags need a safety more than any other team, and he’s a good scheme fit.
- Baltimore Ravens: DE DeForest Buckner (Oregon) Last = 6
The Ravens take the best talent available. Buckner has top 5 potential.
- San Francisco 49ers: QB Jared Goff (Cal) (-) Last = 2
It sounds like Chip Kelly and Colin Kaepernick are not the dream team we thought they were.
- Miami Dolphins: LB Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame) (-) Last = 7
Like with Gurley last year, should the threat of missing the first month of his rookie season knock Smith down much? He’s elite.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Vernon Hargreaves (Florida) Last = 9
The Bucs would love Ramsey instead. They need a CB badly.
- New York Giants: RB Ezekiel Elliott (Ohio State) (-) Last = 8
The classic 4-3 DEs are not worth taking at this spot or even in this round. Despite the lower value of RBs, teams like low-risk picks.
- Chicago Bears: OLB Noah Spence (Eastern Kentucky) (+) 31
Most evaluators have Spence as a top-10 talent. Will the Bears be “ecstatic” to fill their pass rushing need with him?
- New Orleans Saints: DT A’Shawn Robinson (Alabama) (-) Last = 10
The Saints should just take the best defensive player, whoever it is.
- Philadelphia Eagles: OT Ronnie Staley (Notre Dame) Last = 13
I think they want to hedge a bit on QB. Get Bradford back to start but also get a guy in round 2 or 3 who could become a starter.
- Oakland Raiders: LB Reggie Ragland (Alabama) (+) Last = 27
Ragland is a top 15-20 guy on most boards. The Raiders will look for secondary help in rounds 2-3.
- Los Angeles Rams: QB Paxton Lynch (Memphis) (+) Last = 22
Not much doubt here. They need to land a QB.
- Detroit Lions: DT Vernon Butler (Louisiana Tech) (+) Last = NR
Butler was already getting first-round whispers before the Senior Bowl. The secret is out now.
- Atlanta Falcons: WR Laquon Treadwell (Mississippi) Last = 17
Here comes a rant. Treadwell’s average value in PlayTheDraft is pick 7 or 8. There are mock drafts sending him to SD, DAL, or BAL. Any mock drafter who puts Treadwell in the top 10 has no credibility. I understand that some media big boards have Treadwell ridiculously high, but it’s not going to happen in real life. I barely want to put him in round 1. This pick is a reach for need. He’s a late 1 at best. He could be in round 2 after the Combine if he’s as slow as expected.
- Indianapolis Colts: OLB Leonard Floyd (Georgia) (-) Last = 11
Defense seems like more of an issue than RT. They need LBs and CBs. Floyd’s an easy choice here.
- Buffalo Bills: RT Jack Conklin (Michigan State) Last = 19
The Bills may have more interest in d-linemen. It’s hard not to put Conklin here though. Top-20 right tackle for a team in need of a right tackle.
- New York Jets: RT Taylor Decker (Ohio State) Last = 20
I’m sure they’d love to get Spence or Floyd if possible. Their OTs were terrible last year.
- Washington Pigskins: DT Jarran Reed (Alabama) (+) Last = 24
They have literally nothing at NT right now. He’ll stuff the run in the middle.
- Houston Texans: QB Christian Hackenberg (Pennsylvania State) (+) Last = NR
Let’s just accept that it’s going to happen. It doesn’t matter that Hack is inaccurate and has round 2-3 grades. The Texans are going to draft nothing but offense, and they need a QB around whom to build. Without Wentz, Goff, or Lynch available here, I doubt that they gamble that Hack is still available in round 2.
- Minnesota Vikings: LB Darron Lee (Ohio State) (-) Last = Last = 18
Lee would take Chad Greenway’s spot at WLB.
- Cincinnati Bengals: DT Robert Nkemdiche (Mississippi) (-) Last = 16
Talented guy falling because of character issues? Bengals.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Eli Apple (Ohio State) (-) Last = 12
CB is such an obvious need. I can’t imagine anything else here.
- Seattle Seahawks: DT Adolphus Washington (Ohio State) (+) Last = 28
I haven’t heard a negative comment about Washington other than the word “solicitation.”
- Green Bay Packers: DT Andrew Billings (Baylor) (-) Last = 21
LB is a need, but they won’t reach. They don’t have a nose tackle currently.
- Kansas City Chiefs: DT Sheldon Rankins (Louisville) (-) Last = 26
As expected, Rankins solidified himself as a late-1 prospect at the Senior Bowl.
- Arizona Cardinals: OLB Kyler Fackrell (Utah State) (+) Last = NR
Pass rusher has been a need for a while. He’s a riser.
- Carolina Panthers: CB Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech) (-) Last = 14
They need youth on the other side of Josh Norman, assuming they can get him signed.
- Denver Broncos: RB Derrick Henry (Alabama) (-) 29
I still love everything about this idea. Hide the weakness on offense by pounding the big one-cut back all day.
- Cleveland Browns: WR Braxton Miller (Ohio State)
- Tennessee Titans: CB Mackensie Alexander (Clemson) (-) Last = 25
- Dallas Cowboys: DE Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State) (-) Last = 30
- San Diego Chargers: OT Jason Spriggs (Indiana)
- Baltimore Ravens: G Cody Whitehair (Kansas State)
- San Francisco 49ers: WR Corey Coleman (Baylor) (-) Last = 23
- Jacksonville Jaguars: DE Shaq Lawson (Clemson)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: DE Kevin Dodd (Clemson)
- New York Giants: DE Carl Nassib (Penn State)
- Chicago Bears: CB William Jackson (Houston)
- Miami Dolphins: CB Artie Burns (Miami)
- Los Angeles Rams (via PHI): C Nick Martin (Notre Dame)
- Oakland Raiders: S Darian Thompson (Boise State)
- Los Angeles Rams: WR Michael Thomas (Ohio State)
- Detroit Lions: WR Will Fuller (Notre Dame)
- New Orleans Saints: LB Su’a Cravens (USC)
- Indianapolis Colts: DT Austin Johnson (Penn State)
- Buffalo Bills: QB Cardale Jones (Ohio State)
- Atlanta Falcons: DE Shilique Calhoun (Michigan State)
- New York Jets: LB Jordan Jenkins (Georgia)
- Houston Texans: TE Hunter Henry (Arkansas)
- Washington Pigskins: S Keanu Neal (Florida)
- Minnesota Vikings: WR Josh Doctson (Texas Christian)
- Cincinnati Bengals: S Miles Killebrew (Southern Utah)
- Seattle Seahawks: OT Le’Raven Clark (Texas Tech)
- Green Bay Packers: WR Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: DT Kenny Clark (UCLA)
- Kansas City Chiefs: OLB Kamelei Correa (Boise State)
- New England Patriots: DE Jonathan Bullard (Florida)
- Arizona Cardinals: CB Deiondre Hall (Northern Iowa)
- Carolina Panthers: S Vonn Bell (Ohio State)
- Denver Broncos: DT Chris Jones (Mississippi State)
- Tennessee Titans: RB Devontae Booker (Utah)
- Cleveland Browns: WR Tyler Boyd (Pittsburgh)
- San Diego Chargers: S Jayron Kearse (Clemson)
- Dallas Cowboys: WR Pharoh Cooper (South Carolina)
- San Francisco 49ers: LB Kentrell Brothers (Missouri)
- Jacksonville Jaguars: CB James Bradberry (Samford)
- Baltimore Ravens: CB Will Redmond (Mississippi State)
- New York Giants: DT Hassan Ridgeway (Texas)
- Chicago Bears: OT Shon Coleman (Auburn)
- Miami Dolphins: RB Kenneth Dixon (Louisiana Tech)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: S Jeremy Cash (Duke)
- Oakland Raiders: CB Xavien Howard (Baylor)
- Los Angeles Rams: K Roberto Aguayo (Florida State)
- Philadelphia Eagles: QB Connor Cook (Michigan State)
- New Orleans Saints: CB Zack Sanchez (Oklahoma)
- Philadelphia Eagles (via DET): G Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M)
- Buffalo Bills: DT Maliek Collins (Nebraska)
- Atlanta Falcons: C Ryan Kelly (Alabama)
- Indianapolis Colts: LB Deion Jones (Louisiana State)
- New York Jets: G Sebastian Tretola (Arkansas)
- Washington Pigskins: LB Joshua Perry (Ohio State)
- Houston Texans: RB Paul Perkins (UCLA)
- Minnesota Vikings: S Jalen Mills (Louisiana State)
- Cincinnati Bengals: WR Leonte Carroo (Rutgers)
- Green Bay Packers: LB Beniquez Brown (Mississippi State)
- Pittsburgh Steelers: S Karl Joseph (West Virginia)
- Seattle Seahawks: G Vadal Alexander (Louisiana State)
- Kansas City Chiefs: OT Willie Beavers (Western Michigan)
- New England Patriots: WR De’Runnya Wilson (Mississippi State)
- Arizona Cardinals: DE Bronson Kafusi (Brigham Young)
- Carolina Panthers: DE Shawn Oakman (Baylor)
- Denver Broncos: G Joshua Garnett (Stanford)
- Compensatory: TE Nick Vannett (Ohio State)
- Compensatory: TE Austin Hooper (Stanford)
- Compensatory: C Jack Allen (Michigan State)
- Compensatory: DT Sheldon Day (Notre Dame)
- Compensatory: CB Harlan Miller (Southeastern Louisiana)