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2021 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM) v 1.0

Author:
xc
Air Date:
January 27, 2021

       2021 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM) v 1.0

 

In 2015, College Football Metrics joined forces with preeminent draft forecaster Xavier Cromartie to produce mock drafts and top 100 prospect boards for entry into The Huddle Report’s exclusive, experts-only NFL Draft scoring. Xavier starts to post mock drafts and top 100 boards in January and continues up to the draft in April.

Xavier's five-year average score in the The Huddle Report's top 100 board rankings is #3 in the world (see rankings here: top 100 boards). He also participates in the first-round mock draft scoring (see rankings here: first-round mocks).

           

                                                        

1) Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)                                      

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, CB, OT, DT                                                                                 

            The pick: The Jags finally get their first legit QB since Mark Brunell.      

                                                                           

                                                                                                     

2) New York Jets: QB Zach Wilson (Brigham Young)              

                                                                                 

            Top needs: QB, CB, LB, WR                                                                                 

            The pick: Whether this pick belongs to the Jets or Texans, Wilson is most likely the guy. Darnold is a backup.                                                                                    

                                               

                                                                                                     

3) Miami Dolphins (via HOU): OT Penei Sewell (Oregon)                                    

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: WR, C, OT, DE                                                                                   

            The pick: If they're all-in on Tua, they should get him the best protection they can.                         

                                                                   

                                                                                                     

4) Atlanta Falcons: WR Ja'Marr Chase (Louisiana State)                                     

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: DE, RB, S                                                                             

            The pick: Julio Jones is getting too old and banged up.                                        

                                                    

                                                                                                     

5) Cincinnati Bengals:  TE Kyle Pitts (Florida)                                       

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, DE, G                                                                            

            The pick: Surround Burrow with elite weapons.                                                                    

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

6) Philadelphia Eagles: WR DeVonta Smith (Alabama)                                    

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, DE, S                                                                             

            The pick: There is no defensive value here, and they still need to solve WR.                                                                                                                                                                  

                                                                                                     

7) Detroit Lions: QB Justin Fields (Ohio State)                                    

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, WR, CB                                                                        

            The pick: With Stafford gone, they must expect to land a QB here.                                                                                         

                                                                  

                                                                                                     

8) Carolina Panthers: QB Trey Lance (North Dakota State)                                           

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, OT, CB                                                                         

            The pick: They still have plenty of holes elsewhere, but they can't win without a QB.                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

9) Denver Broncos: LB Micah Parsons (Penn State)                                          

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, LB, S                                                                             

            The pick: It's likely that the top QBs will be gone unless they make a move up.                                                                      

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

10) Dallas Cowboys: CB Patrick Surtain (Alabama)                                           

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, DT, S                                                                             

            The pick: They need more than just Trevon Diggs on defense.                                                                        

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

11) New York Giants: WR Jaylen Waddle (Alabama)                                        

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: DT, DE, C                                                                             

            The pick: With no DL value here, they can give Daniel Jones a better target.                                                                           

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

12) San Francisco 49ers: CB Caleb Farley (Virginia Tech)                                               

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, OT, DT                                                                          

            The pick: They have literally no CBs under contract.                                                                            

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

13) Los Angeles Chargers: OT Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)                                    

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: OT, CB, TE                                                                          

            The pick: How good could Herb be with a competent line in front of him?                                                                                

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

14) Minnesota Vikings: DE Gregory Rousseau (Miami)                                    

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: DE, DT, S                                                                             

            The pick: They might have their pick of edge rushers, and they certainly need one.                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

15) New England Patriots: DT Christian Barmore (Alabama)                                        

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, DT, DE                                                                          

            The pick: The QBs will be gone, and the DL needs to be restocked aside from Winovich.                                                                                  

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

16) Arizona Cardinals: CB Jaycee Horn (South Carolina)                                      

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, DT, G                                                                            

            The pick: All they have at CB is Byron Murphy.                                                                      

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

17) Las Vegas Raiders: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Notre Dame)                                        

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: S, DT, CB                                                                             

            The pick: Almost anything on defense would help.                                                                              

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

18) Miami Dolphins: G Alijah Vera-Tucker (Southern Cal)                                             

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: WR, C, OT, DE                                                                                   

            The pick: They are pretty solid on defense, and so fully investing in the OL makes sense.                                                                          

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

19) Washington FT: WR Kadarius Toney (Florida)                                             

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, WR, CB                                                                        

            The pick: They need a complement to Terry McLaurin.                                                                       

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

20) Chicago Bears: WR Terrace Marshall (Louisiana State)                                           

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, WR, S                                                                           

            The pick: It's unlikely Allen Robinson is coming back.                                                                          

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

21) Indianapolis Colts:  OT Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech)                                      

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, OT, DE                                                                         

            The pick: A strong OL is their identity.                                                                            

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

22) Tennessee Titans: DE Kwity Paye (Michigan)                                              

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: OLB, DT, TE                                                                        

            The pick: They're losing too much on the defensive front to go any other way.                                                                      

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

23) New York Jets (via SEA):  LB Zaven Collins (Tulsa)                                      

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, CB, LB, WR                                                                                 

            The pick: The DBs in this area are a bit of a reach. They need to get LB settled.                                                                       

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

24) Pittsburgh Steelers:  OT/G Jalen Mayfield (Michigan)                                              

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: OT, OLB, RB                                                                       

            The pick: The OL is in need of a rebuild.                                                                         

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

25) Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR): OT Alex Leatherwood (Alabama)                                           

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, CB, OT, DT                                                                                 

            The pick: Although they drafted two OTs in recent years, it is once again a need, especially with a golden QB.                                                                              

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

26) Cleveland Browns: DE Jaelan Phillips (Miami)                                             

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: LB, DE, DT                                                                           

            The pick: Phillips is a bit of a risk but the Browns need to take the chance.                                                                              

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

27) Baltimore Ravens: OLB Azeez Ojulari (Georgia)                                          

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: OLB, G, DT                                                                          

            The pick: They're losing most of their edge rushers.                                                                            

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

28) New Orleans Saints: WR Rashod Bateman (Minnesota)                                         

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: QB, S, WR                                                                           

            The pick: They need a legit successor to Michael Thomas.                                                                               

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

29) Green Bay Packers: CB Tyson Campbell (Georgia)                                     

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, C, TE                                                                         

            The pick: Kevin King is done.                                                                              

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

30) Buffalo Bills: DE Carlos Basham (Wake Forest)                                           

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, DE, G                                                                            

            The pick: They're relying on ancient pass-rushers.                                                                                

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

31) *Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OLB Jayson Oweh (Penn State)                                      

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: OLB, DT, WR                                                                                     

            The pick: Even if Shaq Barrett is back, JPP is getting old.                                                                    

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                 

32) *Kansas City Chiefs: G Wyatt Davis (Ohio State)                                       

                                                                                                     

            Top needs: CB, LB, C                                                                             

            The pick: Their OL depth got tested in 2020. They need to keep it strong.                                                                                

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

                                                                                                     

Archived mock drafts:


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2018

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College Football Metrics (CFM) 2021 subscriptions early sign-up early January 2021 open now.

It’s going to be a scouting NFL Draft season like no other – some top prospects opting out of their final college season, a unique schedule for CFB teams to have played, a different type of bowl season…a whole new backdrop to scout against. An experienced, talented scouting eye is going to rule. I have 10+ years of successful CFM scouting and analytics to lean on – I’m ready for the challenge.

I know the mainstream football analysis is going to butcher this year’s class even worse than normal – because they are going to blindly favor big school prospects more than ever, because those schools will have the only names they are truly familiar with, and it’s just the ‘name’ they are familiar with not their ‘game’. They’ll ‘hive mind’ run with whatever names the collective seems to be buzzing about – because they don’t put in the work, they just echo things they’ve heard. I’m not saying that to be a jerk – it’s the open window of opportunity (their failure) that I was able to build my career/business upon.

I spend many hours each offseason day/week/month researching the current class of top 100+ prospects individually as well as all the smaller school and ‘lesser named’ prospects our computer models start to identify. I study and compare prospect’s tape, and I input the performance data (weighted with our secret, proprietary scouting formulas) to get a firsthand feel for it so I can analyze and test/challenge all our analytics. I get to know these prospects on the field, statistically, and do character background research as well -- so I can boil it down to reports so my private clients and subscribers (from serious fantasy players, to professional handicappers, to agents, to NFL war room personnel) can know these prospects by description and statistically – for NFL purposes, for Dynasty Rookie Draft purposes, for Fantasy Best Ball/Redraft purposes in the preseason, and for handicapping and prop betting purposes.

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Go to our College Football Metrics or Fantasy Football Metrics subscription pages for more information.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>