Premium Articles from Scouting Reports
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
The scouting home for serious, high-stakes dynasty fantasy football profiteers
0
2022 Zyon McCollum Article of Interest
New
May 21, 2022
I read this brief story on Zyon McCollum and thought it was mildly interesting about the process of TB drafting him, and what they thought of him.
Article Link: https://www.pewterreport.com/speedy-cb-mccollum-bucs-told-me-were-going-to-draft-you/
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 5.0 (top 350 with IDP)
New
May 19, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 5.0 (top 350 with IDP)
Commentary added: none
Commentary update to existing: David Bell, Troy Andersen (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: Jashaun Corbin
Most on the move (up or down): Jonathan Garibay, Max Borghi, Micah McFadden, J.J. Russell, Jashuan Corbin, Chase Lucas, Tyrion Davis-Price, Wan'Dale Robinson, Nakobe Dean, David Bell, Kevin Harris, among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 4.0 (top 350 with IDP)
New
May 14, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 4.0 (top 350 with IDP)
Commentary added: Boye Mafe, Keontay Ingram
Commentary update to existing: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: Clarence Hicks, Tariqious Tisdale, Jordan Mason
Most on the move (up or down): Kyle Phillips, Reshaun Henry, Chris Olave, Andrew Mevis, Kuony Deng, Pierre Strong, Boye Mafe, Dane Belton, Romeo Doubs, Michael Clemson, Zander Horvath, Tariq Castro=Fields, Tyriek McAllister among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 NFL Draft Team Grades (Using the CFM/FFM Computer Models)
New
May 13, 2022
2022 NFL Draft Grades (Using the CFM/FFM Computer Models)
As always, our draft grades are WAY different than the mainstream…not just in grades/ranks given, but in the approach…
We’re looking at a scale where a 60-70% (on a 0-100% scale) is roughly the average grade overall. Which means many teams will get ‘failing’ grades…because, in reality, many teams will fail…or they didn’t have a ton of picks to accumulate bodies with.
Our grading model is based on several factors…
-- We consider all the undrafted free agents into this assessment…they should matter in every draft grade situation…but they never are in the mainstream (who grades the draft 10 seconds after it ends, and before the UDFAs even lock in).
-- What pick number or round the players were drafted in, or if undrafted, doesn’t matter to us…only how much talent was accumulated. So called ‘bargains’ don’t matter. Just ‘what did you get?’
-- We consider the economic value of the position of the player. Safeties and running backs are not as valuable as Quarterbacks…and then cornerbacks and offensive line. We look at payroll allocations in the NFL to assign some economic value to the picks.
-- We use OUR computer scouting model grades on the players…not the echo chamber mainstream prospect rankings.
-- We have a 0-100% scale, but a team could go over 100%. A 100% score is based on what we see as a great draft…but an achievable draft, not some ‘perfect every pick’ daydream. It’s based on how many elite players, how many starter projection players, and how many rosterable players (and they all come with different values into the grading) the team accumulates in this draft (and UDFA period)…according to us.
*And final note for super-fans who might stumble across this piece... I don't care about your team, on way or the other, or any NFL team for that matter. If you don't like the grade you see...sorry. I get that the draft is filled with magical unicorns for fans and all the players your team picked could all be great and your team is so smart -- but this is strictly a clinical analysis based on our data and scouting, no emotion playing into it. I can't be swayed by emotion in any football things...I need to operate in some kind of reality for betting and fantasy purposes. Five years from now, when we all look back...I'm sure there will be team grades we're way too high or low on. But for now, this is our take.
My favorite NFL team is = the one I have a bet on at any given moment.
With all that said, here’s what the computer says…
1) 93.10% = New York Jets
Any team that got Ahmad Gardner was going to have a decent draft on that pick alone…the best player grade/value we had in 2022. Jermaine Johnson was a nice pull. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are NFL starters. Michael Clemons was a steal in the 4th-round, and if he hits – then this draft combined with last year’s very good draft will be franchise altering for the positive.
Back-to-back highly ranked drafts…the Jets should be rising in stature in 2022-2023, if Zach Wilson brings it all together.
2) 92.68% = Green Bay Packers
Three value OLs who are projected NFL starters…the best O-Line centric draft in 2022, arguably. Walker and Wyatt offer two defenders to start right away. Christian Watson could be the top homerun hitter WR from 2022. Samori Toure was savvy in the 7th. Tyler Goodson as a UDFA is a real steal, but they really don’t have room for him.
3) 86.23% = Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons grabbed three defenders (Ebiketie, Andersen, and Malone) that can play right away and boost the defense’s speed and pass rush. Drake London was arguably the best WR in the draft and Tyler Allgeier arguably the best technical, power runner in the draft. Tyshaun Davis, Kuony Deng, and Nate Landman were solid UDFA grabs. The Falcons desperately needed ‘players’…they needed quantity as much as quality -- and they had a nice haul in 2022.
4) 82.18% = Indianapolis Colts
Four great picks to start their draft, even without a 1st-round pick…Pierce-Woods-Rainmann-Cross were all 1st-round potentials. They also may have had the best/savviest UDFA period with Dallis Flowers, Eric Johnson, and Sterling Weatherford. This has a shot to be the best draft of 2022…and the turning point to get past Tennessee over the next year or two.
5) 81.07% = Baltimore Ravens
I don’t love the names they got, BUT the computer analysis recognizes the volume of useful players they got. This grade is quantity over quality…and that’s not the worst thing.
6) 79.90% = New England Patriots
The opposite of the Ravens draft…quality over quantity and chasing what they wanted, not sitting back and catching ‘falling knives’/discounted players the analysts love (but the NFL obviously did not as much). It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see which concept won out…the NE or BAL Draft of 2022.
7) 74.57% = Dallas Cowboys
If Tyler Smith becomes what Will McClay (one of the only personnel people in the NFL that I respect…THEE top one I respect) thinks…and that is the Tyron Smith replacement, then this draft is gonna be sweet for Dallas. Sam Williams is a 1st-round talent with off-field flags that held him to 2nd-round value. Damone Clark might have been a top 100 if not for neck concerns. A really smart draft for Dallas with some decent UDFA looks.
8) 74.10% = Jacksonville Jaguars
Walker-Lloyd-Muma makes for a pretty nice draft…but we grade Walker as a solid pick, not an elite. If he goes elite (and he could), then this is a top 1-2-3 draft in the making…in a draft that lacks a lot of ‘wow’ prospects.
9) 73.97% = New York Giants
Evan Neal was one of the best ‘gets’ from this draft, and NYG got him…so that was a big plus/scoring for their grade in our system. We weren’t so high on Thibodeaux and Wan’Dale, but they’re useful/have some hope for sure. It just feels like NYG was the one team that stayed in place to make their picks and didn’t hit the home run you would have hoped for up-and-down the board – but they did fine. Neal will be rock solid.
10) 73.86% = Detroit Lions
I liked this draft more than the computer did. Hutchinson-Jameson off the bat was terrific and then a bunch of interesting hopefuls in Paschal-Joseph-Mitchell-Rodriguez and I really liked the James Houston pull in the 6th. They also had one of the best UDFA periods with Derrick Deese, Corey Sutton, and Tre Williams. This looks more like a top 5, not just a top 10 draft, to me.
11) 71.53% = Minnesota Vikings
Great maneuvering by Minnesota’s new GM to fade back and get two instant starters on defense at value picks – Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth. The rest of the draft they added solid/filler players to gowith. A solid draft all around, and if Booth doesn’t have injury issues follow him to the pros, then this could be an easy top 5-10 draft in hindsight.
12) 70.79% = Houston Texans
I think Derek Stingley is overrated and a reach, but he’s at minimum NFL-worthy. I thought Jalen Pitre was a top 20 overall prospect, and a steal in the 2nd-round. John Metchie is solid, as is Christian Harris and Dameon Pierce. A lot of good NFL bodies were added, but no mega star…and if Pitre is great, it’s at a low value position (SAF).
13) 70.61% = Kansas City Chiefs
KC got several solid players from this draft. McDuffie and Karlaftis, to me, are more OK/good then anything great. Skyy Moore is OK, not a game changer. Leo Chenal is solid. Josh Williams has hope. This has the potential to be a top 10 draft in the long run with good quantity but not yielding any studs…but I see where this might wind up a bottom 10 draft as well – if my concerns on Karlaftis are right, then this draft is in trouble.
14) 70.39% = Seattle Seahawks
Another draft that has a lot of solid bodies but not a real ‘wow’ on any super stud players. I’m not a big Charles Cross fan. Boye Mafe is good. Kenneth Walker is fine, but RBs are low value things to get in a draft. Abe Lucas is promising. If Cross-Lucas really pan out, then this is a nice/top 10 draft for Seattle…but I’d bet (slightly) against it.
15) 67.81% = Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This draft has a chance to be a top 5 one when we look back on it. If Zyon McCollum hits the way we have him graded, then that’s an ace grab right there. Luke Goedeke was a smart OL pick. Logan Hall is a ‘tweener’ that I don’t have the highest grades on, but if he comes through then my grades on TB’s draft is too low.
Many obvious Super Bowl contenders are graded way down on this board, so at least TB was around the average…with upside.
16) 62.61% = Philadelphia Eagles
You can’t assume Jordan Davis to be great, but if he is…then this draft has top 10 potential. It could be Davis is just solid/nice and then the hoopla from this draft is gonna dissipate quickly. Cam Jurgens is nice. I think Nakobe Dean was one of the most overrated players in the draft, so no real credit for getting him. Kyron Johnson had a wonderful Pro Day but could wind up a Davion Taylor disappointment (Pro Day great, NFL ‘OK’).
*Notice we’re through the first 16 teams and the team grades are starting to show in the mid-60s. That’s how you grade things…that should be the scale, approx. Average grade for all 32 teams total in 2022 = around 65%.
17) 62.16% = Tennessee Titans
The success or failure of this draft is probably locked into how Malik Willis turns out. It could be a top 5 draft if Willis pops, but a bottom 10 if he fizzles away. I LOVE the Kyle Phillips pick, but worry he’ll not see the targets he should the first 1-2-3 years.
18) 59.18% = Los Angeles Chargers
With a great draft, we could’ve seen LAC as a strong Super Bowl fave (in my mind)…but they fell a bit short. They’re still fine overall, after killing it in free agency/pre-Draft.
Zion Johnson is a terrific get, and then they add a useful J.T. Woods and then a bunch of ‘meh’ or role players at best. It’s not a totally terrible draft but they could’ve done so much better. If Salyer hits and they make something interesting out of RB-FB-TE Zander Horvath – then they deserve a way better draft grade, and the potential is there for it.
19) 57.56% = Buffalo Bills
Buffalo filled a need with CB Kaiir Elam, but he’s not amazing…just solid/good. Outside of that not a lot of obvious impact players. Punter Matt Araiza may have been their best pick of the draft.
20) 57.52 = Carolina Panthers
Getting elite OL Ikem Ekwonu set the foundation for a nice draft…which seeing Carolina graded down this low can only mean one thing – the rest of their draft sucked. And yep…it kinda did. Brandon Smith is good and everything else is low grade talent and/or no real quick impact help to a team that needs help now. To be fair, they didn’t have a ton of picks in this draft…the brilliant Sam Darnold trade and all…
21) 55.00% = New Orleans Saints
I love the Trevor Penning pick…that’s a high impact pick…then nothing else they did mattered all that much. Chris Olave is every decent WR in the NFL…he’s not an obvious star, and not worth where he was picked. Penning was a good get and then not much to show for it otherwise. Alontae Taylor has some hope but other than that it’s very generic/OK pickups.
22) 52.03% = Chicago Bears
Finally, the Bears had a draft where they weren’t #30-32 in our draft grade/rankings. The Bears have been putrid the past couple of years with Nagy/Pace. The new regime did better in their debut…but it was a low bar.
Kyler Gordon was a terrific 2nd-round pick. Brisker is solid. Zach Thomas is a promising OL they got in the 6th-round. It wasn’t an amazing draft, but it was better than their last few.
23) 51.45% = Cleveland Browns
If not for PK Cade York getting grabbed, then this draft bordered on a complete disaster. Perrion Winfrey has some hope. M.J. Emerson is OK. Alex Wright is more bust than help. David Bell looks like a mild fraud. I did not like this draft at all, besides York as a great kicking prospect.
24) 49.84 = Washington Commanders
I didn’t get this draft AT ALL. I like Jahan Dotson well enough, but was this the key need for Washington? They got sucked in by potential Alabama labeled busts Phidarian Mathis and Brian Robinson. This draft furthers the malaise/decline of this franchise – a team not good enough for a serious playoff effort, but not bad enough to blow them up and rebuild…they give just a sliver of hope but never come through (The Ron Rivera story, as an NFL coach).
25) 49.19 = Pittsburgh Steelers
If Pickett hits his ceiling…then this could be as good a draft as any in 2022, when we look back. Actually, it would be the best of ’22…if you get a franchise QB. But if he falls flat…then this should be where we have it – a bottom 10, more so a bottom five draft. If Pickett is just OK…a back-end NFL starter – then this draft sets the Steelers back even more than last year’s wasted draft. They’d be like Washington – too good to totally blow up, too bad to make the playoffs…no man’s land.
26) 46.35% = Denver Broncos
What I said about LAC’s draft/situation nearly applies here too…with a killer draft, Denver really would have taken another step to get the AFC West crown. Instead, they got a couple of decent utility players and NFL starter potentials – but no obvious game changers here. To be fair, they didn’t make their first pick until #64…so, the opportunities were limited. Getting Russell Wilson was way more important.
27) 31.86% = Cincinnati Bengals
A good draft here could’ve allowed Cincy to pull away from the pack…but they missed the mark, badly. Dax Hill is overrated…unless he converts to CB and ends up good/great there, but they seem to be pushing him as a safety. Why NFL teams draft safeties in the 1st-round, from an economic standpoint, I have no idea. Cam Taylor-Britt is OK and then there’s a lot of dart throws – just what Cincy didn’t need to stay ahead of the rugged AFC.
28) 31.69% = Los Angeles Rams
The Super Bowl champs didn’t pick until #104…once again showing that the draft does not matter for Southern and West Coast teams, especially ones that play in a dome. The Rams can whiff on all these guys in the draft, and they’ll have no lack of free agents and vets wanting to come play for them otherwise. They don’t need to build through the draft right now.
Drafting Kyren Williams #164 should get Les Snead fired. Drafting Daniel Hardy #235 should get someone on the scouting team a gold star.
29) 31.43% = Arizona Cardinals
Arizona needed to make headway in the draft to keep up in the tough NFC West…and they did not do so here. Trey McBride is solid but not an immediate need. Needing more O-Line once again…they (once again) didn’t do anything to address it in the draft…aside from a pick #257 OL flier. I don’t get it.
30) 30.87% = San Francisco 49ers
If you thought NFC West 2021 season playoff team’s LAR and ARI had confounding drafts…then the 49ers did the old ‘hold my beer’ to show them how a terrible draft is done. Drake Jackson has some hope but then a collection of no name, underwhelming, fringe rosterable guys…that I see. With several ‘huh’ picks/players taken.
If Trey Lance ends up flopping…then the 49ers will have gone on a terrible string of drafts the past three years…after their excellent 2019 draft (Bosa, Deebo, Greenlaw).
31) 25.72% = Las Vegas Raiders
LV didn’t pick until #90, due in part to the Davante deal. OL Dylan Parham drafted works, a good pick -- but then a collection of players that are backups or future quick cuts after that. RB Brittain Brown at #250 may have been the single worst pick in the draft.
32) 24.65% = Miami Dolphins
Such a nice offseason pre-Draft, and then a disaster in the draft. To be fair, they didn’t first pick until #102 (due to the Tyreek deal, which was a smart deal). Channing Tindall might develop into a decent linebacker or just be a nice special teamer…and that’s their top draft pick in 2022…
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 3.0 (top 300 with IDP)
New
May 11, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 3.0 (top 300 with IDP)
Commentary added: Andrew Booth, DeAngelo Malone, Danny Gray, Wan'Dale Robinson, , David Bell
Commentary update to existing: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Micah McFadden, Rachaad White, Quentin Lake, Nasir Green, Keontay Ingram, Mike Rose, Isaiah Spiller, Devin Harper, Johan Dotson, Tyler Badie, Terrel Bernard, Kalia Davis, Decobie Durant, Aaron Shampklin, Julius Chestnut, David Bell, Brian Asamoah, among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 250 with IDP)
New
May 9, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 250 with IDP)
Commentary added: Cole Turner, Devin Lloyd, Nick Cross, Jeremiah Johnson, Kayvon Thibodeaux
Commentary update to existing: Tyler Allgeier (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Samori Toure, Andrew Mevis, Jahan Dotson, Zyon McCollum, Kaiir Elam, Jake Hansen, Nate Landman, Aaron Hansford, Peyton Hendershot, JoJo Donmann, Cyrus Holder, Marcus Jones, Jalen Tolbert, among other
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 2.0 (top 200 with IDP)
New
May 8, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 2.0 (top 200 with IDP)
Commentary added: none
Commentary update to existing: Kenneth Walker (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Tyler Allgeier, Zamir White, Connor Heyward, Jalen Tolbert, Sam Howell, Charlie Kolar, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth Walker, Brian Robinson, Cole Turner, Isaiah Spiller, Jerome Ford, Charles Irvin, Jonathan Garibay, Bryant Koback, Tyler Badie, Chig Okonkwo, Andrew Mevis, among other
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.1 (top 200 with IDP)
New
May 6, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.1 (top 200 with IDP) *
Commentary added: Greg Dulcich, Cade York, Troy Andersen, Jalen Tolbert, Leo Chenal
Commentary update to existing: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Quay Walker, Troy Andersen, Brian Robinson, Jalen Tolbert, Matt Corral, Malcolm Rodriquez, Daniel Hardy, Bo Melton, Corey Sutton, Bailey Zappe, Olakunle Fatukasi, Juanyeh Thomas, Jeremy Ruckert, JaQuan McMillian, among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 150 with IDP) *
New
May 5, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 150 with IDP) *
Commentary added: Zamir White, Kyler Gordon, Chad Muma, Hassan Haskins, Alec Pierce, Jordan Davis, Sam Howell
Commentary update: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Nick Cross, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Chad Muma, Dax Hill, Channing Tindall, Kaiir Elam, Cade Otton, Daniel Hardy, Dallis Flowers, Samori Toure, James Houston, Damarri Mathis, Jequez Ezzard, Kyron Johnson, Eyioma Uwazurike, Logan Hall, Desmond Ridder among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 NFL Draft: Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) Signings of NFL/Fantasy Note…
New
May 2, 2022
2022 NFL Draft: Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) Signings of NFL/Fantasy Note…
What I have so far (using our 21 top NFL prospects likely to go undrafted)…
21) QB Cole Johnson, James Madison
20) ILB J.J. Russell, Memphis (signed with: TB)
19) DE Carl Igweh, Frostburg State
18) WR TyShuan James, Central Connecticut State (signed with: ATL)
17) WR RaShaun Henry, Virginia (signed wit: CAR)
16) WR Devin Heckstall, UVa-Wise
15) DT Prince Emili, Penn (signed with: BUF)
14) RB/TE Alexander Horvath, Purdue (DRAFTED by LAC)
13) WR Tanner Conner, Idaho State (signed with: MIA)
12) CB Jaylon Jones, Ole Miss (signed with: CHI)
11) RB Bryant Koback, Toledo (signed with: MIN)
10) OLB Kyron Johnson, Kansas (DRAFTED by PHI)
9) SAF Joey Blount, Virginia (signed with: SEA)
8) OLB/edge James Houston, Jackson State (DRAFTED by DET)
7) TE Derrick Deese, San Jose State (signed with: DET)
6) WR Dareke Young, Lenoir-Rhyne (DRAFTED by SEA)
5) WR/TE Dee Anderson, Alabama A&M
4) WR Jequez Ezzard, Sam Houston State (signed with: WSH)
3) CB/DB Dallis Flowers, Pittsburgh State (signed with: IND)
2) OLB/Edge Daniel Hardy, Montana State (DRAFTED by LAR)
1) OLB/SAF Sterling Weatherford, Miami (OH) (signed with: IND)
Other Notables…
RB Master Teague, Ohio State = signed with CHI
WR Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss = signed with DAL
CB Mario Goodrich, Clemson = signed with PHI
QB Carson Strong, Nevada = signed with PHI
WR Jerreth Sterns, W Ky = signed with TB
QB Cole Kelley, SE La. = signed with WSH
WR Isaiah Weston, No Iowa = signed with CLE
DB Tristin McCollum, Sam Houston State = signed with HOU
RB Tyler Goodson, Iowa = signed with GB
--------------------
New 5/1
TE Jalen Wydermeyer, Texas A&M = signed with BUF
RB Raheem Blackshear, Va Tech = signed with BUF
CB Ja'Quan McMillan, ECU = signed with DEN
RB Max Borghi, Wash State = signed with IND
WR Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss = signed with MIA
RB Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma = signed with PHI
New 5/2
WR Justyn Ross, Clemson = signed with KC
2022 NFL Draft: Day Three Streaming Random Notes (refresh page for latest tidbits)
New
April 30, 2022
2022 NFL Draft: Day Three Streaming Random Notes (Refresh page for latest tidbits)
I'm going to just drop in thoughts and ideas as they strike me, as the draft progresses throughout the day. Refresh/reload the page throughout the day for the latest notes.
*2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings will debut by Monday morning latest, and updating all week/all offseason.
7:03pmET: The draft is over. Now the UDFA frenzy begins. We'll be monitoring that for the remaining 17 hot prospects off our '21 players off the grid' report earlier today.
The draft ends with the single worst thing in all the draft: "Mr. Irrelevant"...it's embarrassing and denigrating.
6:50pmET: Finally, Isaih Pacheco was drafted...by KC. Not a great spot on the surface, but there are rare spots you could say are 'good' for a 7th-rounder...or any rounder. Although, I would have been over the moon if he had gone to Houston.
Really, it's not that bad in KC -- CEH likely gets hurt. RoJo is on a 1-year deal and can't catch. Pacheco has some hope here.
6:31pmET: Players drafted I didn't have grades for...I'll be researching this week.
RB Brittain Brown, UCLA -- to LV (I thought he was so nothing to get drafted I passed on doing any work)
DT Sam Roberts, NW Mo. -- to NE
5:57pmET: My list of 21 interesting prospects likely to go undrafted...well, three of them have been drafted so far.
LB Justin Houston, Jackson State goes to DET in the 6th
WR Dareke Young, Lenoir-Rhyne goes to SEA in the 7th
DE Daniel Hardy, Montana State goes to LAR...finally, LAR stumbles into something nice...really nice.
5:42pmET: Some real difference making D1 prospects still available, in my book...
RB Isaih Pacheco, Rutgers
LB/SAF Sterling Weatherford, Miami OH
RB Tyler Goodson, Iowa could really disrupt another backfield situation
5:30pmET: I see way more existing NFL players that got blown up/sliced into by a rookie than I see rookies who landed in a great place for the DRD. This is going to be some insane 'fallout' for FF 2022 projections and dynasty valuations from this draft...
5:00pmET: The Rams always trading their picks, I get it...because they're horrible at drafting the past two seasons. This Rams draft (2022) is utter trash from my vantage point. Almost like they're trying to waste their picks. But, they are the case study for the draft not as important as we like to think it is.
4:33pmET: Some team is going to get a gold bar when they take RB Isaih Pacheco Rutgers. Some of the RBs being taken ahead of him is completely ridiculous.
4:04pmET: Watching an interview with Mike Tomlin...the Week 1 job is Kenny Pickett's to lose, reading between the lines.
4:00pmET: Update to this message from hours ago...
So, Pierre Strong to NE...Harris-Stevenson-Strong, who ya got for FF? Well, add Kevin Harris (who I like a lot). Now, who you got?
Trick question...they're all FF wounded.
3:45pmET: The Ravens have made a thousand picks, and everyone is cooing about it...I'm not that impressed. Travis Jones is a solid pick. Linderbaum should be fine. But there's a lot of trap door or marginal picks made...and I like Charlie Kolar but that was won't yield results for a while, if at all. Nothing innovative with all these picks...just some OK picks...nothing where you go WHOA!
3:16pmET: Kyren Williams picked by the Rams is like a similar/worse John Kelly (everyone loves but they suck)...as Isaih Pacheco sits out there available. Ridiculous.
2:57pmET: The fact that Denver took underwhelming (grade) 5'8" WR Montrell Washington and not Kyle Phillips (who went with the next pick to TEN) is a crime against football humanity.
2:44pmET: My top 10 draft prospects remaining, as we go through a run of my top 10 remaining going off the past 30 minutes or so:
Overall Rk) Pos Rk Draft Value CFM Pos. grade Last First College H1 H2 Wght Pos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
26 (overall) #2 (pos rank) 76.26% (Draft Grade) 8.25 = Philips, Kyle -- 2022 UCLA 5'11.2" 189 WR-sm
43) #9 73.81% 7.27 = Salyer, Jamaree -- 2022 Georgia 6'3.0" 318 OT
52) #11 72.40% 6.96 = Walker, Rasheed -- 2022 Penn State 6'5.5" 313 OT
80) #16 68.59% 6.94 = Flowers, Dallis -- 2022 Pitt State 6'1.0" 196 CB (won't be drafted)
81) #4 68.40% 7.56 = Rodriguez, Malcolm -- 2022 Oklahoma St 5'11.0" 232 ILB
82) #17 68.07% 6.73 = Castro-Fields, Tariq -- 2022 Penn State 6'0.5" 197 CB
83) #3 68.02% 8.21 = Pacheco, Isaih -- 2022 Rutgers 5'10.3" 216 RB-pw
91) #18 66.76% 6.45 = Jobe, Joshua -- 2022 Alabama 5'11.4" 182 CB
93) #19 66.57% 6.38 = Taylor-Stuart, Isaac -- 2022 USC 6'1.4" 201 CB
94) #8 66.51% 7.10 = Melton, Bo -- 2022 Rutgers 5'11.0" 189 WR-sm
96) #21 66.24% 6.25 = Junior, Gregory -- 2022 Ouchita Bapt 5'11.7" 203 CB
98) #3 65.40% 7.66 = Weatherford , Sterling -- 2022 Miami, OH 6'4.0" 224 OLB
2:29pmET: So much solid/good talent in this draft...as college football is going to keep giving us -- there's nowhere for any of them to go, hardly, where they aren't disrupting a depth chart. Tyler Allgeier is the next grenade into an RB depth chart. Time to reevaluate Cordarrelle Patterson's rushing workload.
2:05pmET: Sam Howell to Washington with the last pick of the 4th...a crime, he shouldn't have lasted that long. The moment Washington loses two games in a row, the fans will whine for Sam.
2:00pmET: All I need is for the Patriots to take Zyon McCollum and I'll lose my mind...they grabbed Bailey Zappe, so happy for him. Validation when NE takes you way earlier than anyone was projecting.
1:39pmET: My top 10 draft prospects remaining, as we approach Round 5:
Overall Rk) Pos Rk Draft Value CFM Pos. grade Last First College H1 H2 Wght Pos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 (overall) #2 (pos rank) 91.09% (Draft Grade) 9.94 (CFM grade) = McCollum, Zyon -- Sam Houston State 6'2.1" 199 CB
25) #6 76.30% 7.77 = Tom, Zach -- Wake Forest 6'4.2" 304 OT
26) #2 76.26% 8.25 = Philips, Kyle -- 2022 UCLA 5'11.2" 189 WR-sm
32) #3 75.24% 7.59 = Zappe, Bailey -- 2022 W. Kentucky 6'0.4" 215 QB
35) #4 74.69% 7.38 = Howell, Sam -- 2022 UNC 6'0.5" 218 QB
42) #8 73.85% 7.29 = Waletzko, Matt -- 2022 No. Dakota 6'7.5" 312 OT
43) #9 73.81% 7.27 = Salyer, Jamaree -- 2022 Georgia 6'3.0" 318 OT
52) #11 72.40% 6.96 = Walker, Rasheed -- 2022 Penn State 6'5.5" 313 OT
70) #12 70.31% 7.12 = Woolen, Tariq -- 2022 UTSA 6'4.1" 205 CB
75) #2 69.59% 8.34 = Allgeier, Tyler -- 2022 BYU 5'10.6" 221 RB-pw
1:23pmET: So, Pierre Strong to NE...Harris-Stevenson-Strong, who ya got for FF?
1:03pmET: The death of the solo RB continues...LAC takes Isaiah Spiller.
Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Saquon and Christian McCaffrey are like all that's remaining...for now.
1:01pmET: Hmmm, an ex-Patriots coach takes an SEC/Georgia RB...SURPRISE!! Zamir White taken by Las Vegas continues the downward spiral of Josh Jacobs. I think LV would trade Jacobs if they could.
12:59pmET: Man, I thought NE traded up to take Zyon McCollum...he's still available.
12:14pmET: Dameon Pierce going to the Texans...that's a huge curveball into the 2021 DRD rankings. Supposedly were gonna take Breece Hall, but the Jets traded ahead of them for it yesterday.
12:05pmET: expect to see Andy Isabella traded today...probably like for a 6th-round pick.
11:57am: NOW POSTED on CFM...report...My Top 21 ‘Off-the-Grid’ 2022 NFL Draft Prospects (who likely won’t be drafted)…
================================
11:20amET: My top 10 draft prospects remaining, as we start Round 4:
Overall Rk) Pos Rk Draft Value CFM Pos. grade Last First College H1 H2 Wght Pos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 (overall) #2 (pos rank) 91.09% (Draft Grade) 9.94 (CFM grade) = McCollum, Zyon -- Sam Houston State 6'2.1" 199 CB
25) #6 76.30% 7.77 = Tom, Zach -- Wake Forest 6'4.2" 304 OT
26) #2 76.26% 8.25 = Philips, Kyle -- 2022 UCLA 5'11.2" 189 WR-sm
32) #3 75.24% 7.59 = Zappe, Bailey -- 2022 W. Kentucky 6'0.4" 215 QB
35) #4 74.69% 7.38 = Howell, Sam -- 2022 UNC 6'0.5" 218 QB
41) #5 74.19% 7.68 = Clemons, Micheal -- 2022 Texas A&M 6'5.2" 263 DE
42) #8 73.85% 7.29 = Waletzko, Matt -- 2022 No. Dakota 6'7.5" 312 OT
43) #9 73.81% 7.27 = Salyer, Jamaree -- 2022 Georgia 6'3.0" 318 OT
52) #11 72.40% 6.96 = Walker, Rasheed -- 2022 Penn State 6'5.5" 313 OT
56) #2 72.32% 7.93 = Smith, Brandon -- 2022 Penn State 6'3.4" 250 OLB
2022 NFL Draft: 1st-Round Next Day Analysis (NFL and FF)…
New
April 29, 2022
2022 NFL Draft: 1st-Round Analysis (NFL and FF)…
We’re going to go in the order of the 1str-round of the draft to use as the trigger for thoughts/notes.
*Thank you to everyone who attended the video stream – it’s on-demand for those who’d like to watch/listen. We do live stream Round 2 tonight.
-- The Jaguars start us off by taking Travon Walker. When the Vegas odds started breaking this way super-strong the last 48 hours or so, the Jags’ leakers had fully leaked this reality.
The Jags get Walker at #1 and then later traded up for Devin Lloyd at #27. ‘Doug Pederson is going to go offense in the draft!’ theories didn’t really work out here. One of the most despised, ridiculous NFL GMs is in charge of the arguably the most ridiculous NFL franchise…one that SHOULD be strong, a desired place for players to go…but isn’t.
It’s a solid enough start to their draft, but this is assuming Walker becomes some version of Micah Parsons they hope for…which, by the laws of universe, this being ‘Jacksonville’ means that this somehow won’t work as hoped…if this fails then it means that there is a Walker issue (as his tape and output shows too often)…and this will be another high hopes/failed draft by the NFL runt franchise, the Jaguars.
Regardless, it’s a smart move in this draft – you go for the huge upside and high-end athleticism and if it fails, it fails. Only if this fails, Trent Baalke is done in the NFL for good.
-- At #2, the Detroit Lions then go with the guy everyone pegged to them as a ‘spiritual fit’ – Aidan Hutchinson, a solid pick. But then they spiced things up with trading up to get Jameson Williams at #12.
Hutchinson + Dan Campbell you could see from a mile away.
Jameson + Dan Campbell, I saw in a frozen hell.
It’s a great move when you consider the night was (and suddenly a league is) ruled by WIDE RECEIVERS, not QBs…so, with Williams possibly the most talented WR in this draft – this ends up being one of the better moves of the night one.
I just didn’t think the Lions needed/wanted a WR, but after that notion being wrong…I sit back and thought it’s a great move.
And it’s no help to the Amon-Ra St. Brown FF story.
And it’s a big help to the Jared Goff story.
Lions fans…you’re about on the verge of ‘hope’…real hope, more than the Jaguars. Your GM might be one of the better ones in the league (and what he paid to move up for Jameson wasn’t much at all, it was a brilliant trade).
-- I was mildly shocked at #3 with Houston taking Derek Stingley.
Shocked…because I didn’t see Houston going corner with all the top OLs available at their fingertips.
Shocked…because no one in the world could look at the tape and do the character research and with Ahmad Gardner available…choose Stingley. The Texans seem hellbent on keeping this franchise destroyed. Having two picks in the 1st-round and ending up with Stingley & Kenyon Green when they could’ve had Gardner and Trevor Penning or Zion Johnson – it’s going to go down as a horrific moment of wasted opportunity for a franchise leading the league in horrific moments, suddenly.
-- I will agree with the mainstream, the Jets had the best draft of Round One…and are likely headed to a top draft ranking/rating overall.
The Jets were on the verge of something special but fumbled one of their three picks.
First, #4 taking Ahmad Gardner – he was our top player in the draft, by a mile. Instant impact player. The Jets may ‘win’ the 2022 NFL Draft just with this pick alone.
They traded up to #10 and could’ve really been turning a corner had they taken a shot on Jordan Davis or added any of the top OLs available, instead they get generically fine/solid WR Garrett Wilson. Wilson is fine, but there was such much else out there to chase besides a WR. It didn’t kill them, but such a missed opportunity at ‘special’ in this first round.
Later, at #26, they traded up for falling Jermaine Johnson…one of the smartest moves in the 2nd-half of the 1st-round.
The Jets have taken over my ‘deep sleeper’ franchise love, moving ahead of the Giants.
-- Speaking of the Giants…
At #5, they take one of my least favorite top prospects of 2022, Mr. Thibodeaux. The Jets got as good/a better edge rusher at #26 with Jermaine Johnson.
A few picks later, the Giants nabbed Evan Neal…the one-time consensus #1 overall. He’s a fine pick. This helps NYG. Now, all they need is a QB…
-- Carolina, in a mild shock, bypasses Kenny Pickett and takes (arguably) the best OL prospect in the draft at #6 – Ikem Ekwonu.
NYG with Neal…and CAR with Ekwonu…very good picks, but with arguably the two worst Week 1 starting QBs at the helm; it doesn’t matter much for 2022.
-- At #8, the Falcons take Drake London…who immediately becomes a #1 WR by the lack of any other option to consider. Good for London’s FF/Dynasty Rookie Draft case…except, as it stands today…he’s going to draw #1 coverage from CBs right away.
This helps Kyle Pitts get some heat taken off him, but the Falcons need to add more firepower to free up Pitts even more.
-- At #9, Seattle…after gutting their franchise of its heart and soul players…looking to rebuild their roster and faith with their fanbase, they take an OK/somewhat sketchy offensive lineman (Charles Cross). Not going to win any fans back/or convert new ones with this pick.
Seattle is destroying themselves by riding with Pete Carroll instead of Russell Wilson, and I’ve got my popcorn ready to sit back and watch the building burn to the ground. Cross at #9, is another log on the fire.
-- The Saints moved up to #11…after having made big moves with Philly earlier…and after all the draft capital they spilled to get to #11, they take a generically OK WR Chris Olave.
The Saints think they are contenders for some reason, but they are just slowly falling apart/fading away.
Later, they did land Trevor Penning…which is a great pick/value.
The Saints are on the edge of breaking good…or ‘Breaking Bad’. Some decent young talent. A nice O-Line. But arguably the worst starting QB in the league for Week 1 and their long time/esteemed head coach that built them…he just up and left, a serious vote of no confidence. The Saints’ franchise seems in peril, but they have enough talent where it might not be totally obvious it’s in a rotting state in 2022. If they had a real QB then things would look so much brighter.
-- At #13, the Eagles trade up a little to land ‘freak’ DT Jordan Davis. Davis is what the draft is about – taking a shot at a player that could be legendary. Maybe Davis is just ‘good measurables’ and goes on to have a plausible NFL career like a Dontari Poe, but maybe he’s got an upside to be unleashed with his freakish athleticism. Solid move by Philly to go take a look.
-- And then at #14, we have the team falling apart about as fast as a team can – the Baltimore Ravens.
We get two moves by them mid-1st-round, which gives a glimpse into the chaos…
1) They select highly overrated Kyle Hamilton at #14…arguably the single worst player selected in the 1st-round…definitely the worst of the first half of the 1st-round.
2) They traded Marquise Brown to Arizona. I don’t have any issue with that move, I think Brown needed to go…and they found a sucker (Arizona) to take it (because Marquise Brown is a head case, and an injury problem…who is going to be a pill to deal with next year when he’ll want a mega deal).
But this move is a shot across the Lamar Jackson bow in a bigger picture sense -- LJax is a guy who (oddly) won’t work out a deal with the Ravens, and now Baltimore just made it 2x more difficult to deal with Lamar…trading his BFF away. If the Ravens deal Lamar, then I’ll give them credit…it’s what they need to do, rip the band aid off and start the rebuild.
3) With the pick acquired from Arizona, at #25…Baltimore takes a solid center prospect, Tyler Linderbaum. Some say Linderbaum is the top center in the draft…others are seeing some problems. If Linderbaum flops, then this 2022 NFL Draft has a chance to be the Ravens with the lowest rated draft of the year, when we look back over time.
The Steelers, the Browns, and the Ravens are gifting the Bengals AFC North dominance by slowly or speedily imploding their franchises within.
-- Arizona acquires Marquise Brown…I get this for Arizona too, for the moment…but then there will be issues.
Brown is a BFF WR of Kyler’s going back to Oklahoma. Just like this was spitting in the face of Lamar…it’s a fruit basket of love sent to Kyler. This lets us know Kyler is staying in Arizona – the Cardinals are doing everything around Kyler to make him happy, the final act being the mega contract to happen soon enough.
I wouldn’t want to build a franchise on Kyler-Brown, but for Fantasy 2022…it’s a good thing…as Brown builds his case for big money ahead. But if Arizona gives him a big deal (early) this offseason, then I’d be less 2022-enthused. Brown is a moron…as is Kyler…in personality, locker room/off the field. I fear what will happen when the two of them are paired and paid mega money.
Baltimore made a very smart move here…dumping Brown ahead of the diva problems. Just now they have invoked the wrath of Lamar…and maybe they wanted to.
Rondale Moore = R.I.P…his FF value.
DeAndre Hopkins is a WR2.
Rashod Bateman suddenly perks up, and Devin Duvernay gets a little life. And if Baltimore gets a passing QB in a possibly ugly Lamar divorce this offseason…then Bateman-Duvernay looks even better.
-- For some reason, Washington maneuvered around in the draft and then took Jahan Dotson…which is curious given that WR is not a big need, on the surface. They already have money into Curtis Samuel…a better Jahan Dotson. I like Dotson, but this is an odd fit right now. It certainly didn’t help Dotson’s FF outlook – unless this was a precursor to trading Terry McLaurin, which didn’t happen last night…so I’d guess it wasn’t because of that.
-- Picks #7-16 saw eight of 10 picks have some kind of trade linked to them (from the past or on draft day). #17 LAC just sat there, once again, made their pick…letting the talent fall to them…drafting talented, multi-faceted Zion Johnson.
The elite NFL QBs are Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Allen, Brady, Rodgers…in whatever order you want to put them. In 2021, the Chargers put the most money and effort into building their O-Line to protect said investment of this entire group of teams with elite QBs. In the 2022 NFL Draft, only the Chargers drafted an O-Lineman 1st-round among them.
The Chargers are the model for management focus on protecting the top asset…and if it doesn’t work (whatever that is defined as), if the Chargers don’t pass the Chiefs and every other AFC team to become dominant – then I’m not going to give O-Line the importance I have for years now. Burrow almost won a Super Bowl with no O-Line…so the ground is quaking on just HOW important the O-Line is.
Quarterback is everything. Elite quarterback…that is. Protecting him his probably the 2nd-most important team building thing…and LAC is better at it than anyone in the NFLK the past two years.
-- The wide receiver frenzy really hit a mass hysteria point when the Titans dumped A.J. Brown to the Eagles and acquired the #18 pick as part of the deal.
So many narratives playing out here…
1) Old school defensive coaches are not going to let a WR run their franchise. So, I wonder if Terry McLaurin (Ron Rivera) and D.K. Metcalf (Pete Carroll) and Diontae Johnson (Tomlin) are next out the door?
Kyle Shanahan is an old-school (soul) offensive coach, not defense, but he has learned his craft from Bill Belichick…so, you see what Belichick has done – he does not bend to players often, and trades them away without blinking. I think Deebo will be going in a trade soon as well. In the end, I don’t think Shanahan wants to yield to Deebo acting a fool and getting what he wants.
2) Like I’ve been saying…the Eagles can’t attract a WR to come willingly, so they were gonna have to buy one – and they did. Northeast/Midwest teams are going to have to overpay for WRs…which is sexy for FF and NFL hot stove, but not good for an NFL business.
The Titans deal away AJB, and draft Treylon Burks in his place. I don’t think Burks is the perfect Brown replacement stylistically, but for the cost it’s close enough.
A.J. Brown to Philly is not amazing for his FF outlook on the surface…he’s going to a low volume passing game with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert there. It FF-hurts all of them, in some way. Great weapons collection…but bad news for predictability/reliability out of any of them for FF.
-- The Steelers stay put in the draft and take Kenny Pickett…local guy, the Big Ben replacement. It will be assumed that he’ll start Week 1 over Mitch Trubisky, and because Pickett is a rookie…there will be some excitement for it, and thus this helps the value of Diontae Johnson hold up – of which we believe you should be Dynasty sellers of DJ. ‘Sell high’ not ‘sell recklessly’.
More detail on the Dontae overview, on what to do with him in a Dynasty trade, coming in early May…once we’re past the NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft initial rankings.
-- Green Bay had two cracks to take at least one WR…they instead took Georgia Bulldog defenders at #22 (Quay Walker) and #28 (Devonte Wyatt). Whether it was the right NFL thing to do or not…it’s still a slap in the face to the one last year (likely) GB has with Rodgers. UNLESS they are planning to overrated/overpay for one of the McLaurin-Deebo-Metcalf group, but you’d think if that were happening that it would have gone down day one of the draft.
I almost wonder if Green Bay should just trade Rodgers now instead of wasting any more time. Send him to SF for Deebo and Lance in a bigger package deal?
-- The Bengals #1 priority should have been to further protect Joe Burrow…so, logically, they took a versatile, slightly undersized safety (Dax Hill).
-- The Vikings have a real chance to jump in front of Green Bay in the NFC North, now that they’ve rid themselves of Mike Zimmer and awful Rick Spielman (the Spielman’s are NFC North death). Their new GM seems pretty impressive, on the surface, but I was waiting to see how he’d do in free agency and the NFL Draft.
Thumbs up so far…he traded back to acquire more assets and ended up getting a top safety in Lewis Cine at pick #32…the Vikings need to build a defensive secondary on the fly to try and get past Green Bay in 2022, and this is a decent start.
-- With so many teams making trades to acquire a wide receiver or moving up in the draft to take one…Bill Belichick did his normal trade down – not getting into the fray, and then was the one guy who took a player that NO ONE expected to go in the 1st-round. Kudos to Belichick, he’s about the only guy in the NFL who does not fear doing what he wants when he wants in the draft.
The other 31 picks were pretty much guys everyone had as 1st-round players – but no one had OG Cole Strange as a likely 1st-rounder. You have to admire Belichick.
I thought Bill Belichick was also setting the anti-big money WR trend…but that’s necessarily true.
I forgot he traded for DeVante Parker…$6.0M due in 2022.
Did you realize he owes Nelson Agholor $14.9M in 2022?
Kendrick Bourne costs $6.4M in 2022.
Jakobi Meyers isn’t totally cheap at $4.0M.
$31.3M due for these four WRs total…a group no one is all that impressed with.
Live streaming draft coverage tonight around 6:45pmET start for a 7pm draft day two kickoff. See you there or on-demand after.
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Ross Jacobs (CFM) 6.0 *FINAL (Huddle Report)
New
April 28, 2022
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Ross Jacobs (CFM) 6.0 *FINAL (Huddle Report)
Ross Jacobs – College Football Metrics
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: EDGE Travon Walker, Georgia
2. Detroit Lions: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
3. Houston Texans: CB Derek Stingley, LSU
4. New York Jets: Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
5. New York Giants: OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
6. Carolina Panthers: OT Ikem Ekwonu, NC State
7. New York Giants: CB Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
8. Atlanta Falcons: WR Drake London, USC
9. Seattle Seahawks: OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
10. New York Jets: WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
11. Washington Commanders: LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
12. Minnesota Vikings: S Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
13. Houston Texans: EDGE Jermaine Johnson, Florida State
14. Baltimore Ravens: OT Evan Neal, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Jameson Williams, Alabama
16. New Orleans Saints: WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
17. Los Angeles Chargers: LB Quay Walker, Georgia
18. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
19. New Orleans Saints: QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Malik Willis, Liberty
21. New England Patriots: S Dax Hill, Michigan
22. Green Bay Packers: DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
23. Arizona Cardinals: DT Logan Hall, Houston
24. Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa
25. Buffalo Bills: CB Kyler Gordon, Washington
26. Tennessee Titans: OG: Zion Johnson, Boston College
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OG Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
28. Green Bay Packers: WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas
29. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida
30. Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE David Ojabo, Michigan
31. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Travis Jones, Connecticut
32. Detroit Lions: S Lewis Cine, Georgia
2022 NFL Draft Top 100 Board by Ross Jacobs (CFM) *FINAL for Huddle Report
New
April 27, 2022
2022 NFL Draft Top 100 Board by Ross Jacobs (CFM) *FINAL for Huddle Report
1. Travon Walker, Georgia
2. Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
3. Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
4. Evan Neal, Alabama
5. Ikem Ekwonu, North Carolina State
6. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
7. Derek Stingley, Louisiana State
8. Jermaine Johnson, Florida State
9. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
10. Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
11. Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
12. Devin Lloyd, Utah
13. Charles Cross, Mississippi State
14. Jameson Williams, Alabama
15. Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
16. Jordan Davis, Georgia
17. Drake London, Southern California
18. George Karlaftis, Purdue
19. Chris Olave, Ohio State
20. Malik Willis, Liberty
21. Zion Johnson, Boston College
22. Trent McDuffie, Washington
23. Daxton Hill, Michigan
24. Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
25. Treylon Burks, Arkansas
26. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
27. Boye Mafe, Minnesota
28. Logan Hall, Houston
29. Travis Jones, Connecticut
30. Kyler Gordon, Washington
31. Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
32. Jahan Dotson, Penn State
33. Quay Walker, Georgia
34. Kaiir Elam, Florida
35. Lewis Cine, Georgia
36. Jalen Pitre, Baylor
37. DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M
38. Christian Watson, North Dakota State
39. Trey McBride, Colorado State
40. Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan
41. Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa
42. Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State
43. Christian Harris, Alabama
44. Andrew Booth, Clemson
45. Jaquan Brisker, Penn State
46. David Ojabo, Michigan
47. Breece Hall, Iowa State
48. Tyler Smith, Tulsa
49. Matt Corral, Mississippi
50. Roger McCreary, Auburn
51. Skyy Moore, Western Michigan
52. Sam Howell, North Carolina
53. Drake Jackson, Southern California
54. Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State
55. Alec Pierce, Cincinnati
56. Josh Paschal, Kentucky
57. Chad Muma, Wyoming
58. Kenneth Walker, Michigan State
59. Nakobe Dean, Georgia
60. Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma
61. John Metchie, Alabama
62. Abraham Lucas, Washington State
63. Channing Tindall, Georgia
64. Leo Chenal, Wisconsin
65. Phidarian Mathis, Alabama
66. Greg Dulcich, UCLA
67. Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma
68. Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M
69. George Pickens, Georgia
70. Nick Cross, Maryland
71. Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State
72. Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama
73. Cole Strange, Chattanooga
74. Troy Andersen, Montana State
75. James Cook, Georgia
76. Cam Jurgens, Nebraska
77. Bryan Cook, Cincinnati
78. Brian Robinson, Alabama
79. Sean Rhyan, UCLA
80. Cade Otton, Washington
81. Jelani Woods, Virginia
82. Rasheed Walker, Penn State
83. Zyon McCollum, Sam Houston State
84. Terrel Bernard, Baylor
85. Marcus Jones, Houston
86. Joshua Ezeudu, North Carolina
87. DeAngelo Malone, Western Kentucky
88. Luke Goedeke, Central Michigan
89. JT Woods, Baylor
90. Darian Kinnard, Kentucky
91. Dameon Pierce, Florida
92. Danny Gray, SMU
93. Damarri Mathis, Pittsburgh
94. Brandon Smith, Penn State
95. Tyquan Thornton, Baylor
96. Jalyn Armour-Davis, Alabama
97. Eyioma Uwazurike, Iowa State
98. Micheal Clemons, Texas A&M
99. Malcolm Rodriguez, Oklahoma State
100. Luke Fortner, Kentucky
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM) v 6.0 FINAL (Huddle Report)
New
April 27, 2022
The following is the Xavier Cromartie - College Football Metrics FINAL 2022 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft for entry into The Huddle Report’s mock draft scoring:
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM) 27 Apr 2022 v 6.0 FINAL
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: ED Travon Walker (Georgia)* (+) 2
Top 100 picks: 1, 33, 65, 70
Top needs: ED, LB, G, C
The pick: It's all or nothing with this pick.
----------------------------
2. Detroit Lions: ED Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan) (-) 1
Top 100 picks: 2, 32, 34, 66, 97
Top needs: QB, ED, WR, LB, S
The pick: The Lions take the local player.
----------------------------
3. Houston Texans: OT Ikem Ekwonu (North Carolina State)* (+) 5
Top 100 picks: 3, 13, 37, 68, 80
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, RB
The pick: Evan Neal also makes a lot of sense but comes with more risk.
----------------------------
4. New York Jets: CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)* (+) 10
Top 100 picks: 4, 10, 35, 38, 69
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, LB
The pick: It's getting Saucy in Jersey.
----------------------------
5. New York Giants: OT Evan Neal (Alabama)* (-) 3
Top 100 picks: 5, 7, 36, 67, 81
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, LB, S
The pick: The Giants seem to be hoping for Neal or Cross. Daboll was recently with Alabama.
----------------------------
6. Carolina Panthers: OT Charles Cross (Mississippi State)* (+) 7
Top 100 picks: 6
Top needs: LT
The pick: Rather than reach for QB, the Panthers get a much-needed LT.
----------------------------
7. New York Giants (via CHI): CB Derek Stingley (Louisiana State)* (+) 12
Top 100 picks: 5, 7, 36, 67, 81
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, LB, S
The pick: Stingley's upside puts him in the top 10.
----------------------------
8. Atlanta Falcons: WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)* (+) 11
Top 100 picks: 8, 43, 58, 74, 82
Top needs: QB, ED, WR, LB, RB
The pick: It's a deep edge class. WR falls off quicker. They have to get a star WR. QB in R2.
----------------------------
9. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa) (+) 17
Top 100 picks: 9, 40, 41, 72
Top needs: QB, ED, LT, CB
The pick: They need two starting OTs more than any team in the league.
----------------------------
10. New York Jets (via SEA): ED Jermaine Johnson (Florida State) (-) 9
Top 100 picks: 4, 10, 35, 38, 69
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, LB
The pick: The Jets evidently prefer Johnson over Thibodeaux.
----------------------------
11. Washington: S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)* (+) 18
Top 100 picks: 11, 47
Top needs: WR, S
The pick: Hamilton is a perfect scheme fit for the S/LB hybrid position in Washington's defense.
----------------------------
12. Minnesota Vikings: CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)* (+) 23
Top 100 picks: 12, 46, 77
Top needs: CB, S, TE
The pick: The Stingley dream is probably dead without a trade-up. McDuffie is next best, likely after a trade down into the teens.
----------------------------
13. Houston Texans (via CLE): WR Drake London (Southern California)* 13
Top 100 picks: 3, 13, 37, 68, 80
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, RB
The pick: London as a big slot would help Mills.
----------------------------
14. Baltimore Ravens: ED Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)* (-) 4
Top 100 picks: 14, 45, 76, 100
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, LB
The pick: The Ravens laugh as the best player in the draft falls into their lap.
----------------------------
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA): DT Jordan Davis (Georgia) 15
Top 100 picks: 15, 18, 51, 83
Top needs: CB, WR, DT, S
The pick: Davis controls the interior and frees up how other defenders can be utilized.
----------------------------
16. New Orleans Saints (via PHI/IND): WR Chris Olave (Ohio State) (+) 22
Top 100 picks: 16, 19, 49, 98
Top needs: QB, LT, WR, S
The pick: The Saints have done well drafting Ohio State players.
----------------------------
17. Los Angeles Chargers: LB Devin Lloyd (Utah) (-) 14
Top 100 picks: 17, 79
Top needs: RT, LB
The pick: With the top OTs gone, the Chargers fill their other major need.
----------------------------
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)* (-) 16
Top 100 picks: 15, 18, 51, 83
Top needs: CB, WR, DT, S
The pick: They could be looking at a trade up to that #12 spot to secure Williams.
----------------------------
19. Carolina Panthers (projected trade w/NO via PHI): QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh) (-) 6
Top 100 picks: 16, 19, 49, 98
Top needs (NO): QB, LT, WR, S
The pick: I'm hedging. I project the Panthers to trade down or trade future picks to come back into R1 and get Pickett.
----------------------------
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Malik Willis (Liberty) (-) 8
Top 100 picks: 20, 52, 84
Top needs: QB, WR, DT
The pick: I think they could move up (slightly) to make this pick or consider Desmond Ridder as a backup plan.
----------------------------
21. New England Patriots: LB Quay Walker (Georgia) (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 21, 54, 85
Top needs: CB, LB, G
The pick: The Patriots prefer big LBs and trust the Georgia program.
----------------------------
22. Green Bay Packers (via LV): WR Treylon Burks (Arkansas)* (+) 24
Top 100 picks: 22, 28, 53, 59, 92
Top needs: ED, WR, LB, DT, TE
The pick: Is Burks a clean fit? Beggars can't be choosers.
----------------------------
23. Arizona Cardinals: WR Jahan Dotson (Penn State) (+) 29
Top 100 picks: 23, 55, 87
Top needs: ED, CB, WR
The pick: Dotson has played mostly at outside WR.
----------------------------
24. Dallas Cowboys: G Kenyon Green (Texas A&M)* (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 24, 56, 88
Top needs: ED, LB, G
The pick: O-line has always been a priority for the Cowboys.
----------------------------
25. Buffalo Bills: RB Breece Hall (Iowa State)* (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 25, 57, 89
Top needs: CB, RB, G
The pick: The CBs here are not the Bills' type. The top RBs won't get to pick 57. Hall offers explosiveness lacking from their current RBs.
----------------------------
26. Tennessee Titans: OT Tyler Smith (Tulsa)* 26
Top 100 picks: 26, 90
Top needs: RT, RB
The pick: There is an obvious need at RT and no other good option.
----------------------------
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: G Zion Johnson (Boston College) 27
Top 100 picks: 27, 60, 91
Top needs: DT, TE, G
The pick: The Bucs have to get a guard to replace Ali Marpet.
----------------------------
28. Green Bay Packers: DT Logan Hall (Houston) (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 22, 28, 53, 59, 92
Top needs: ED, WR, LB, DT, TE
The pick: Everyone is looking for interior pass rush.
----------------------------
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via MIA/SF): ED Boye Mafe (Minnesota) (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 29, 30, 50, 62, 94
Top needs: ED, CB, WR, S, RB
The pick: They desperately need an edge. Mafe has upside.
----------------------------
30. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Kyler Gordon (Washington)* (-) 25
Top 100 picks: 29, 30, 50, 62, 94
Top needs: ED, CB, WR, S, RB
The pick: The Chiefs run a lot of dime (6 DBs). Speedy WRs will be there in round 2.
----------------------------
31. Cincinnati Bengals: CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)* 31
Top 100 picks: 31, 63, 95
Top needs: CB, DT, TE
The pick: Elam replaces Eli Apple.
----------------------------
32. Detroit Lions (via LAR): S Lewis Cine (Georgia)* (-) 30
Top 100 picks: 2, 32, 34, 66, 97
Top needs: QB, ED, WR, LB, S
The pick: DeShon Elliott's deal indicates they don't think much of him.
Archived mock drafts:
2021: 52
2020: 43
2019: 37
2018: 40
2017: 37
2016: 37
2015: 48
5-Year Average = 41.8
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
.
.
0
2022 Zyon McCollum Article of Interest
New
May 21, 2022
I read this brief story on Zyon McCollum and thought it was mildly interesting about the process of TB drafting him, and what they thought of him.
Article Link: https://www.pewterreport.com/speedy-cb-mccollum-bucs-told-me-were-going-to-draft-you/
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 5.0 (top 350 with IDP)
New
May 19, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 5.0 (top 350 with IDP)
Commentary added: none
Commentary update to existing: David Bell, Troy Andersen (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: Jashaun Corbin
Most on the move (up or down): Jonathan Garibay, Max Borghi, Micah McFadden, J.J. Russell, Jashuan Corbin, Chase Lucas, Tyrion Davis-Price, Wan'Dale Robinson, Nakobe Dean, David Bell, Kevin Harris, among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 4.0 (top 350 with IDP)
New
May 14, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 4.0 (top 350 with IDP)
Commentary added: Boye Mafe, Keontay Ingram
Commentary update to existing: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: Clarence Hicks, Tariqious Tisdale, Jordan Mason
Most on the move (up or down): Kyle Phillips, Reshaun Henry, Chris Olave, Andrew Mevis, Kuony Deng, Pierre Strong, Boye Mafe, Dane Belton, Romeo Doubs, Michael Clemson, Zander Horvath, Tariq Castro=Fields, Tyriek McAllister among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 NFL Draft Team Grades (Using the CFM/FFM Computer Models)
New
May 13, 2022
2022 NFL Draft Grades (Using the CFM/FFM Computer Models)
As always, our draft grades are WAY different than the mainstream…not just in grades/ranks given, but in the approach…
We’re looking at a scale where a 60-70% (on a 0-100% scale) is roughly the average grade overall. Which means many teams will get ‘failing’ grades…because, in reality, many teams will fail…or they didn’t have a ton of picks to accumulate bodies with.
Our grading model is based on several factors…
-- We consider all the undrafted free agents into this assessment…they should matter in every draft grade situation…but they never are in the mainstream (who grades the draft 10 seconds after it ends, and before the UDFAs even lock in).
-- What pick number or round the players were drafted in, or if undrafted, doesn’t matter to us…only how much talent was accumulated. So called ‘bargains’ don’t matter. Just ‘what did you get?’
-- We consider the economic value of the position of the player. Safeties and running backs are not as valuable as Quarterbacks…and then cornerbacks and offensive line. We look at payroll allocations in the NFL to assign some economic value to the picks.
-- We use OUR computer scouting model grades on the players…not the echo chamber mainstream prospect rankings.
-- We have a 0-100% scale, but a team could go over 100%. A 100% score is based on what we see as a great draft…but an achievable draft, not some ‘perfect every pick’ daydream. It’s based on how many elite players, how many starter projection players, and how many rosterable players (and they all come with different values into the grading) the team accumulates in this draft (and UDFA period)…according to us.
*And final note for super-fans who might stumble across this piece... I don't care about your team, on way or the other, or any NFL team for that matter. If you don't like the grade you see...sorry. I get that the draft is filled with magical unicorns for fans and all the players your team picked could all be great and your team is so smart -- but this is strictly a clinical analysis based on our data and scouting, no emotion playing into it. I can't be swayed by emotion in any football things...I need to operate in some kind of reality for betting and fantasy purposes. Five years from now, when we all look back...I'm sure there will be team grades we're way too high or low on. But for now, this is our take.
My favorite NFL team is = the one I have a bet on at any given moment.
With all that said, here’s what the computer says…
1) 93.10% = New York Jets
Any team that got Ahmad Gardner was going to have a decent draft on that pick alone…the best player grade/value we had in 2022. Jermaine Johnson was a nice pull. Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are NFL starters. Michael Clemons was a steal in the 4th-round, and if he hits – then this draft combined with last year’s very good draft will be franchise altering for the positive.
Back-to-back highly ranked drafts…the Jets should be rising in stature in 2022-2023, if Zach Wilson brings it all together.
2) 92.68% = Green Bay Packers
Three value OLs who are projected NFL starters…the best O-Line centric draft in 2022, arguably. Walker and Wyatt offer two defenders to start right away. Christian Watson could be the top homerun hitter WR from 2022. Samori Toure was savvy in the 7th. Tyler Goodson as a UDFA is a real steal, but they really don’t have room for him.
3) 86.23% = Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons grabbed three defenders (Ebiketie, Andersen, and Malone) that can play right away and boost the defense’s speed and pass rush. Drake London was arguably the best WR in the draft and Tyler Allgeier arguably the best technical, power runner in the draft. Tyshaun Davis, Kuony Deng, and Nate Landman were solid UDFA grabs. The Falcons desperately needed ‘players’…they needed quantity as much as quality -- and they had a nice haul in 2022.
4) 82.18% = Indianapolis Colts
Four great picks to start their draft, even without a 1st-round pick…Pierce-Woods-Rainmann-Cross were all 1st-round potentials. They also may have had the best/savviest UDFA period with Dallis Flowers, Eric Johnson, and Sterling Weatherford. This has a shot to be the best draft of 2022…and the turning point to get past Tennessee over the next year or two.
5) 81.07% = Baltimore Ravens
I don’t love the names they got, BUT the computer analysis recognizes the volume of useful players they got. This grade is quantity over quality…and that’s not the worst thing.
6) 79.90% = New England Patriots
The opposite of the Ravens draft…quality over quantity and chasing what they wanted, not sitting back and catching ‘falling knives’/discounted players the analysts love (but the NFL obviously did not as much). It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see which concept won out…the NE or BAL Draft of 2022.
7) 74.57% = Dallas Cowboys
If Tyler Smith becomes what Will McClay (one of the only personnel people in the NFL that I respect…THEE top one I respect) thinks…and that is the Tyron Smith replacement, then this draft is gonna be sweet for Dallas. Sam Williams is a 1st-round talent with off-field flags that held him to 2nd-round value. Damone Clark might have been a top 100 if not for neck concerns. A really smart draft for Dallas with some decent UDFA looks.
8) 74.10% = Jacksonville Jaguars
Walker-Lloyd-Muma makes for a pretty nice draft…but we grade Walker as a solid pick, not an elite. If he goes elite (and he could), then this is a top 1-2-3 draft in the making…in a draft that lacks a lot of ‘wow’ prospects.
9) 73.97% = New York Giants
Evan Neal was one of the best ‘gets’ from this draft, and NYG got him…so that was a big plus/scoring for their grade in our system. We weren’t so high on Thibodeaux and Wan’Dale, but they’re useful/have some hope for sure. It just feels like NYG was the one team that stayed in place to make their picks and didn’t hit the home run you would have hoped for up-and-down the board – but they did fine. Neal will be rock solid.
10) 73.86% = Detroit Lions
I liked this draft more than the computer did. Hutchinson-Jameson off the bat was terrific and then a bunch of interesting hopefuls in Paschal-Joseph-Mitchell-Rodriguez and I really liked the James Houston pull in the 6th. They also had one of the best UDFA periods with Derrick Deese, Corey Sutton, and Tre Williams. This looks more like a top 5, not just a top 10 draft, to me.
11) 71.53% = Minnesota Vikings
Great maneuvering by Minnesota’s new GM to fade back and get two instant starters on defense at value picks – Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth. The rest of the draft they added solid/filler players to gowith. A solid draft all around, and if Booth doesn’t have injury issues follow him to the pros, then this could be an easy top 5-10 draft in hindsight.
12) 70.79% = Houston Texans
I think Derek Stingley is overrated and a reach, but he’s at minimum NFL-worthy. I thought Jalen Pitre was a top 20 overall prospect, and a steal in the 2nd-round. John Metchie is solid, as is Christian Harris and Dameon Pierce. A lot of good NFL bodies were added, but no mega star…and if Pitre is great, it’s at a low value position (SAF).
13) 70.61% = Kansas City Chiefs
KC got several solid players from this draft. McDuffie and Karlaftis, to me, are more OK/good then anything great. Skyy Moore is OK, not a game changer. Leo Chenal is solid. Josh Williams has hope. This has the potential to be a top 10 draft in the long run with good quantity but not yielding any studs…but I see where this might wind up a bottom 10 draft as well – if my concerns on Karlaftis are right, then this draft is in trouble.
14) 70.39% = Seattle Seahawks
Another draft that has a lot of solid bodies but not a real ‘wow’ on any super stud players. I’m not a big Charles Cross fan. Boye Mafe is good. Kenneth Walker is fine, but RBs are low value things to get in a draft. Abe Lucas is promising. If Cross-Lucas really pan out, then this is a nice/top 10 draft for Seattle…but I’d bet (slightly) against it.
15) 67.81% = Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This draft has a chance to be a top 5 one when we look back on it. If Zyon McCollum hits the way we have him graded, then that’s an ace grab right there. Luke Goedeke was a smart OL pick. Logan Hall is a ‘tweener’ that I don’t have the highest grades on, but if he comes through then my grades on TB’s draft is too low.
Many obvious Super Bowl contenders are graded way down on this board, so at least TB was around the average…with upside.
16) 62.61% = Philadelphia Eagles
You can’t assume Jordan Davis to be great, but if he is…then this draft has top 10 potential. It could be Davis is just solid/nice and then the hoopla from this draft is gonna dissipate quickly. Cam Jurgens is nice. I think Nakobe Dean was one of the most overrated players in the draft, so no real credit for getting him. Kyron Johnson had a wonderful Pro Day but could wind up a Davion Taylor disappointment (Pro Day great, NFL ‘OK’).
*Notice we’re through the first 16 teams and the team grades are starting to show in the mid-60s. That’s how you grade things…that should be the scale, approx. Average grade for all 32 teams total in 2022 = around 65%.
17) 62.16% = Tennessee Titans
The success or failure of this draft is probably locked into how Malik Willis turns out. It could be a top 5 draft if Willis pops, but a bottom 10 if he fizzles away. I LOVE the Kyle Phillips pick, but worry he’ll not see the targets he should the first 1-2-3 years.
18) 59.18% = Los Angeles Chargers
With a great draft, we could’ve seen LAC as a strong Super Bowl fave (in my mind)…but they fell a bit short. They’re still fine overall, after killing it in free agency/pre-Draft.
Zion Johnson is a terrific get, and then they add a useful J.T. Woods and then a bunch of ‘meh’ or role players at best. It’s not a totally terrible draft but they could’ve done so much better. If Salyer hits and they make something interesting out of RB-FB-TE Zander Horvath – then they deserve a way better draft grade, and the potential is there for it.
19) 57.56% = Buffalo Bills
Buffalo filled a need with CB Kaiir Elam, but he’s not amazing…just solid/good. Outside of that not a lot of obvious impact players. Punter Matt Araiza may have been their best pick of the draft.
20) 57.52 = Carolina Panthers
Getting elite OL Ikem Ekwonu set the foundation for a nice draft…which seeing Carolina graded down this low can only mean one thing – the rest of their draft sucked. And yep…it kinda did. Brandon Smith is good and everything else is low grade talent and/or no real quick impact help to a team that needs help now. To be fair, they didn’t have a ton of picks in this draft…the brilliant Sam Darnold trade and all…
21) 55.00% = New Orleans Saints
I love the Trevor Penning pick…that’s a high impact pick…then nothing else they did mattered all that much. Chris Olave is every decent WR in the NFL…he’s not an obvious star, and not worth where he was picked. Penning was a good get and then not much to show for it otherwise. Alontae Taylor has some hope but other than that it’s very generic/OK pickups.
22) 52.03% = Chicago Bears
Finally, the Bears had a draft where they weren’t #30-32 in our draft grade/rankings. The Bears have been putrid the past couple of years with Nagy/Pace. The new regime did better in their debut…but it was a low bar.
Kyler Gordon was a terrific 2nd-round pick. Brisker is solid. Zach Thomas is a promising OL they got in the 6th-round. It wasn’t an amazing draft, but it was better than their last few.
23) 51.45% = Cleveland Browns
If not for PK Cade York getting grabbed, then this draft bordered on a complete disaster. Perrion Winfrey has some hope. M.J. Emerson is OK. Alex Wright is more bust than help. David Bell looks like a mild fraud. I did not like this draft at all, besides York as a great kicking prospect.
24) 49.84 = Washington Commanders
I didn’t get this draft AT ALL. I like Jahan Dotson well enough, but was this the key need for Washington? They got sucked in by potential Alabama labeled busts Phidarian Mathis and Brian Robinson. This draft furthers the malaise/decline of this franchise – a team not good enough for a serious playoff effort, but not bad enough to blow them up and rebuild…they give just a sliver of hope but never come through (The Ron Rivera story, as an NFL coach).
25) 49.19 = Pittsburgh Steelers
If Pickett hits his ceiling…then this could be as good a draft as any in 2022, when we look back. Actually, it would be the best of ’22…if you get a franchise QB. But if he falls flat…then this should be where we have it – a bottom 10, more so a bottom five draft. If Pickett is just OK…a back-end NFL starter – then this draft sets the Steelers back even more than last year’s wasted draft. They’d be like Washington – too good to totally blow up, too bad to make the playoffs…no man’s land.
26) 46.35% = Denver Broncos
What I said about LAC’s draft/situation nearly applies here too…with a killer draft, Denver really would have taken another step to get the AFC West crown. Instead, they got a couple of decent utility players and NFL starter potentials – but no obvious game changers here. To be fair, they didn’t make their first pick until #64…so, the opportunities were limited. Getting Russell Wilson was way more important.
27) 31.86% = Cincinnati Bengals
A good draft here could’ve allowed Cincy to pull away from the pack…but they missed the mark, badly. Dax Hill is overrated…unless he converts to CB and ends up good/great there, but they seem to be pushing him as a safety. Why NFL teams draft safeties in the 1st-round, from an economic standpoint, I have no idea. Cam Taylor-Britt is OK and then there’s a lot of dart throws – just what Cincy didn’t need to stay ahead of the rugged AFC.
28) 31.69% = Los Angeles Rams
The Super Bowl champs didn’t pick until #104…once again showing that the draft does not matter for Southern and West Coast teams, especially ones that play in a dome. The Rams can whiff on all these guys in the draft, and they’ll have no lack of free agents and vets wanting to come play for them otherwise. They don’t need to build through the draft right now.
Drafting Kyren Williams #164 should get Les Snead fired. Drafting Daniel Hardy #235 should get someone on the scouting team a gold star.
29) 31.43% = Arizona Cardinals
Arizona needed to make headway in the draft to keep up in the tough NFC West…and they did not do so here. Trey McBride is solid but not an immediate need. Needing more O-Line once again…they (once again) didn’t do anything to address it in the draft…aside from a pick #257 OL flier. I don’t get it.
30) 30.87% = San Francisco 49ers
If you thought NFC West 2021 season playoff team’s LAR and ARI had confounding drafts…then the 49ers did the old ‘hold my beer’ to show them how a terrible draft is done. Drake Jackson has some hope but then a collection of no name, underwhelming, fringe rosterable guys…that I see. With several ‘huh’ picks/players taken.
If Trey Lance ends up flopping…then the 49ers will have gone on a terrible string of drafts the past three years…after their excellent 2019 draft (Bosa, Deebo, Greenlaw).
31) 25.72% = Las Vegas Raiders
LV didn’t pick until #90, due in part to the Davante deal. OL Dylan Parham drafted works, a good pick -- but then a collection of players that are backups or future quick cuts after that. RB Brittain Brown at #250 may have been the single worst pick in the draft.
32) 24.65% = Miami Dolphins
Such a nice offseason pre-Draft, and then a disaster in the draft. To be fair, they didn’t first pick until #102 (due to the Tyreek deal, which was a smart deal). Channing Tindall might develop into a decent linebacker or just be a nice special teamer…and that’s their top draft pick in 2022…
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 3.0 (top 300 with IDP)
New
May 11, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 3.0 (top 300 with IDP)
Commentary added: Andrew Booth, DeAngelo Malone, Danny Gray, Wan'Dale Robinson, , David Bell
Commentary update to existing: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Micah McFadden, Rachaad White, Quentin Lake, Nasir Green, Keontay Ingram, Mike Rose, Isaiah Spiller, Devin Harper, Johan Dotson, Tyler Badie, Terrel Bernard, Kalia Davis, Decobie Durant, Aaron Shampklin, Julius Chestnut, David Bell, Brian Asamoah, among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 250 with IDP)
New
May 9, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 250 with IDP)
Commentary added: Cole Turner, Devin Lloyd, Nick Cross, Jeremiah Johnson, Kayvon Thibodeaux
Commentary update to existing: Tyler Allgeier (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Samori Toure, Andrew Mevis, Jahan Dotson, Zyon McCollum, Kaiir Elam, Jake Hansen, Nate Landman, Aaron Hansford, Peyton Hendershot, JoJo Donmann, Cyrus Holder, Marcus Jones, Jalen Tolbert, among other
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 2.0 (top 200 with IDP)
New
May 8, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 2.0 (top 200 with IDP)
Commentary added: none
Commentary update to existing: Kenneth Walker (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Tyler Allgeier, Zamir White, Connor Heyward, Jalen Tolbert, Sam Howell, Charlie Kolar, Alontae Taylor, Kenneth Walker, Brian Robinson, Cole Turner, Isaiah Spiller, Jerome Ford, Charles Irvin, Jonathan Garibay, Bryant Koback, Tyler Badie, Chig Okonkwo, Andrew Mevis, among other
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.1 (top 200 with IDP)
New
May 6, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.1 (top 200 with IDP) *
Commentary added: Greg Dulcich, Cade York, Troy Andersen, Jalen Tolbert, Leo Chenal
Commentary update to existing: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Quay Walker, Troy Andersen, Brian Robinson, Jalen Tolbert, Matt Corral, Malcolm Rodriquez, Daniel Hardy, Bo Melton, Corey Sutton, Bailey Zappe, Olakunle Fatukasi, Juanyeh Thomas, Jeremy Ruckert, JaQuan McMillian, among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 150 with IDP) *
New
May 5, 2022
2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings version 1.0 (top 150 with IDP) *
Commentary added: Zamir White, Kyler Gordon, Chad Muma, Hassan Haskins, Alec Pierce, Jordan Davis, Sam Howell
Commentary update: none (check the dates for latest updated commentaries)
New to the top 350: still working towards the build to 350
Most on the move (up or down): Nick Cross, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Chad Muma, Dax Hill, Channing Tindall, Kaiir Elam, Cade Otton, Daniel Hardy, Dallis Flowers, Samori Toure, James Houston, Damarri Mathis, Jequez Ezzard, Kyron Johnson, Eyioma Uwazurike, Logan Hall, Desmond Ridder among others
Access the DRD rankings anytime:
Go to CFM, go to 'Positional Reports', go to 'DRD' tab...and 'boom' (4 tabs of reports along the bottom to view -- top 350 cheat sheet, top 350 commentary sheet, DRD rankings/reports info/instructions, and Devy 2023 coming summertime)
2022 NFL Draft: Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) Signings of NFL/Fantasy Note…
New
May 2, 2022
2022 NFL Draft: Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) Signings of NFL/Fantasy Note…
What I have so far (using our 21 top NFL prospects likely to go undrafted)…
21) QB Cole Johnson, James Madison
20) ILB J.J. Russell, Memphis (signed with: TB)
19) DE Carl Igweh, Frostburg State
18) WR TyShuan James, Central Connecticut State (signed with: ATL)
17) WR RaShaun Henry, Virginia (signed wit: CAR)
16) WR Devin Heckstall, UVa-Wise
15) DT Prince Emili, Penn (signed with: BUF)
14) RB/TE Alexander Horvath, Purdue (DRAFTED by LAC)
13) WR Tanner Conner, Idaho State (signed with: MIA)
12) CB Jaylon Jones, Ole Miss (signed with: CHI)
11) RB Bryant Koback, Toledo (signed with: MIN)
10) OLB Kyron Johnson, Kansas (DRAFTED by PHI)
9) SAF Joey Blount, Virginia (signed with: SEA)
8) OLB/edge James Houston, Jackson State (DRAFTED by DET)
7) TE Derrick Deese, San Jose State (signed with: DET)
6) WR Dareke Young, Lenoir-Rhyne (DRAFTED by SEA)
5) WR/TE Dee Anderson, Alabama A&M
4) WR Jequez Ezzard, Sam Houston State (signed with: WSH)
3) CB/DB Dallis Flowers, Pittsburgh State (signed with: IND)
2) OLB/Edge Daniel Hardy, Montana State (DRAFTED by LAR)
1) OLB/SAF Sterling Weatherford, Miami (OH) (signed with: IND)
Other Notables…
RB Master Teague, Ohio State = signed with CHI
WR Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss = signed with DAL
CB Mario Goodrich, Clemson = signed with PHI
QB Carson Strong, Nevada = signed with PHI
WR Jerreth Sterns, W Ky = signed with TB
QB Cole Kelley, SE La. = signed with WSH
WR Isaiah Weston, No Iowa = signed with CLE
DB Tristin McCollum, Sam Houston State = signed with HOU
RB Tyler Goodson, Iowa = signed with GB
--------------------
New 5/1
TE Jalen Wydermeyer, Texas A&M = signed with BUF
RB Raheem Blackshear, Va Tech = signed with BUF
CB Ja'Quan McMillan, ECU = signed with DEN
RB Max Borghi, Wash State = signed with IND
WR Braylon Sanders, Ole Miss = signed with MIA
RB Kennedy Brooks, Oklahoma = signed with PHI
New 5/2
WR Justyn Ross, Clemson = signed with KC
2022 NFL Draft: Day Three Streaming Random Notes (refresh page for latest tidbits)
New
April 30, 2022
2022 NFL Draft: Day Three Streaming Random Notes (Refresh page for latest tidbits)
I'm going to just drop in thoughts and ideas as they strike me, as the draft progresses throughout the day. Refresh/reload the page throughout the day for the latest notes.
*2022 Dynasty Rookie Draft rankings will debut by Monday morning latest, and updating all week/all offseason.
7:03pmET: The draft is over. Now the UDFA frenzy begins. We'll be monitoring that for the remaining 17 hot prospects off our '21 players off the grid' report earlier today.
The draft ends with the single worst thing in all the draft: "Mr. Irrelevant"...it's embarrassing and denigrating.
6:50pmET: Finally, Isaih Pacheco was drafted...by KC. Not a great spot on the surface, but there are rare spots you could say are 'good' for a 7th-rounder...or any rounder. Although, I would have been over the moon if he had gone to Houston.
Really, it's not that bad in KC -- CEH likely gets hurt. RoJo is on a 1-year deal and can't catch. Pacheco has some hope here.
6:31pmET: Players drafted I didn't have grades for...I'll be researching this week.
RB Brittain Brown, UCLA -- to LV (I thought he was so nothing to get drafted I passed on doing any work)
DT Sam Roberts, NW Mo. -- to NE
5:57pmET: My list of 21 interesting prospects likely to go undrafted...well, three of them have been drafted so far.
LB Justin Houston, Jackson State goes to DET in the 6th
WR Dareke Young, Lenoir-Rhyne goes to SEA in the 7th
DE Daniel Hardy, Montana State goes to LAR...finally, LAR stumbles into something nice...really nice.
5:42pmET: Some real difference making D1 prospects still available, in my book...
RB Isaih Pacheco, Rutgers
LB/SAF Sterling Weatherford, Miami OH
RB Tyler Goodson, Iowa could really disrupt another backfield situation
5:30pmET: I see way more existing NFL players that got blown up/sliced into by a rookie than I see rookies who landed in a great place for the DRD. This is going to be some insane 'fallout' for FF 2022 projections and dynasty valuations from this draft...
5:00pmET: The Rams always trading their picks, I get it...because they're horrible at drafting the past two seasons. This Rams draft (2022) is utter trash from my vantage point. Almost like they're trying to waste their picks. But, they are the case study for the draft not as important as we like to think it is.
4:33pmET: Some team is going to get a gold bar when they take RB Isaih Pacheco Rutgers. Some of the RBs being taken ahead of him is completely ridiculous.
4:04pmET: Watching an interview with Mike Tomlin...the Week 1 job is Kenny Pickett's to lose, reading between the lines.
4:00pmET: Update to this message from hours ago...
So, Pierre Strong to NE...Harris-Stevenson-Strong, who ya got for FF? Well, add Kevin Harris (who I like a lot). Now, who you got?
Trick question...they're all FF wounded.
3:45pmET: The Ravens have made a thousand picks, and everyone is cooing about it...I'm not that impressed. Travis Jones is a solid pick. Linderbaum should be fine. But there's a lot of trap door or marginal picks made...and I like Charlie Kolar but that was won't yield results for a while, if at all. Nothing innovative with all these picks...just some OK picks...nothing where you go WHOA!
3:16pmET: Kyren Williams picked by the Rams is like a similar/worse John Kelly (everyone loves but they suck)...as Isaih Pacheco sits out there available. Ridiculous.
2:57pmET: The fact that Denver took underwhelming (grade) 5'8" WR Montrell Washington and not Kyle Phillips (who went with the next pick to TEN) is a crime against football humanity.
2:44pmET: My top 10 draft prospects remaining, as we go through a run of my top 10 remaining going off the past 30 minutes or so:
Overall Rk) Pos Rk Draft Value CFM Pos. grade Last First College H1 H2 Wght Pos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
26 (overall) #2 (pos rank) 76.26% (Draft Grade) 8.25 = Philips, Kyle -- 2022 UCLA 5'11.2" 189 WR-sm
43) #9 73.81% 7.27 = Salyer, Jamaree -- 2022 Georgia 6'3.0" 318 OT
52) #11 72.40% 6.96 = Walker, Rasheed -- 2022 Penn State 6'5.5" 313 OT
80) #16 68.59% 6.94 = Flowers, Dallis -- 2022 Pitt State 6'1.0" 196 CB (won't be drafted)
81) #4 68.40% 7.56 = Rodriguez, Malcolm -- 2022 Oklahoma St 5'11.0" 232 ILB
82) #17 68.07% 6.73 = Castro-Fields, Tariq -- 2022 Penn State 6'0.5" 197 CB
83) #3 68.02% 8.21 = Pacheco, Isaih -- 2022 Rutgers 5'10.3" 216 RB-pw
91) #18 66.76% 6.45 = Jobe, Joshua -- 2022 Alabama 5'11.4" 182 CB
93) #19 66.57% 6.38 = Taylor-Stuart, Isaac -- 2022 USC 6'1.4" 201 CB
94) #8 66.51% 7.10 = Melton, Bo -- 2022 Rutgers 5'11.0" 189 WR-sm
96) #21 66.24% 6.25 = Junior, Gregory -- 2022 Ouchita Bapt 5'11.7" 203 CB
98) #3 65.40% 7.66 = Weatherford , Sterling -- 2022 Miami, OH 6'4.0" 224 OLB
2:29pmET: So much solid/good talent in this draft...as college football is going to keep giving us -- there's nowhere for any of them to go, hardly, where they aren't disrupting a depth chart. Tyler Allgeier is the next grenade into an RB depth chart. Time to reevaluate Cordarrelle Patterson's rushing workload.
2:05pmET: Sam Howell to Washington with the last pick of the 4th...a crime, he shouldn't have lasted that long. The moment Washington loses two games in a row, the fans will whine for Sam.
2:00pmET: All I need is for the Patriots to take Zyon McCollum and I'll lose my mind...they grabbed Bailey Zappe, so happy for him. Validation when NE takes you way earlier than anyone was projecting.
1:39pmET: My top 10 draft prospects remaining, as we approach Round 5:
Overall Rk) Pos Rk Draft Value CFM Pos. grade Last First College H1 H2 Wght Pos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 (overall) #2 (pos rank) 91.09% (Draft Grade) 9.94 (CFM grade) = McCollum, Zyon -- Sam Houston State 6'2.1" 199 CB
25) #6 76.30% 7.77 = Tom, Zach -- Wake Forest 6'4.2" 304 OT
26) #2 76.26% 8.25 = Philips, Kyle -- 2022 UCLA 5'11.2" 189 WR-sm
32) #3 75.24% 7.59 = Zappe, Bailey -- 2022 W. Kentucky 6'0.4" 215 QB
35) #4 74.69% 7.38 = Howell, Sam -- 2022 UNC 6'0.5" 218 QB
42) #8 73.85% 7.29 = Waletzko, Matt -- 2022 No. Dakota 6'7.5" 312 OT
43) #9 73.81% 7.27 = Salyer, Jamaree -- 2022 Georgia 6'3.0" 318 OT
52) #11 72.40% 6.96 = Walker, Rasheed -- 2022 Penn State 6'5.5" 313 OT
70) #12 70.31% 7.12 = Woolen, Tariq -- 2022 UTSA 6'4.1" 205 CB
75) #2 69.59% 8.34 = Allgeier, Tyler -- 2022 BYU 5'10.6" 221 RB-pw
1:23pmET: So, Pierre Strong to NE...Harris-Stevenson-Strong, who ya got for FF?
1:03pmET: The death of the solo RB continues...LAC takes Isaiah Spiller.
Najee Harris, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Saquon and Christian McCaffrey are like all that's remaining...for now.
1:01pmET: Hmmm, an ex-Patriots coach takes an SEC/Georgia RB...SURPRISE!! Zamir White taken by Las Vegas continues the downward spiral of Josh Jacobs. I think LV would trade Jacobs if they could.
12:59pmET: Man, I thought NE traded up to take Zyon McCollum...he's still available.
12:14pmET: Dameon Pierce going to the Texans...that's a huge curveball into the 2021 DRD rankings. Supposedly were gonna take Breece Hall, but the Jets traded ahead of them for it yesterday.
12:05pmET: expect to see Andy Isabella traded today...probably like for a 6th-round pick.
11:57am: NOW POSTED on CFM...report...My Top 21 ‘Off-the-Grid’ 2022 NFL Draft Prospects (who likely won’t be drafted)…
================================
11:20amET: My top 10 draft prospects remaining, as we start Round 4:
Overall Rk) Pos Rk Draft Value CFM Pos. grade Last First College H1 H2 Wght Pos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 (overall) #2 (pos rank) 91.09% (Draft Grade) 9.94 (CFM grade) = McCollum, Zyon -- Sam Houston State 6'2.1" 199 CB
25) #6 76.30% 7.77 = Tom, Zach -- Wake Forest 6'4.2" 304 OT
26) #2 76.26% 8.25 = Philips, Kyle -- 2022 UCLA 5'11.2" 189 WR-sm
32) #3 75.24% 7.59 = Zappe, Bailey -- 2022 W. Kentucky 6'0.4" 215 QB
35) #4 74.69% 7.38 = Howell, Sam -- 2022 UNC 6'0.5" 218 QB
41) #5 74.19% 7.68 = Clemons, Micheal -- 2022 Texas A&M 6'5.2" 263 DE
42) #8 73.85% 7.29 = Waletzko, Matt -- 2022 No. Dakota 6'7.5" 312 OT
43) #9 73.81% 7.27 = Salyer, Jamaree -- 2022 Georgia 6'3.0" 318 OT
52) #11 72.40% 6.96 = Walker, Rasheed -- 2022 Penn State 6'5.5" 313 OT
56) #2 72.32% 7.93 = Smith, Brandon -- 2022 Penn State 6'3.4" 250 OLB
2022 NFL Draft: 1st-Round Next Day Analysis (NFL and FF)…
New
April 29, 2022
2022 NFL Draft: 1st-Round Analysis (NFL and FF)…
We’re going to go in the order of the 1str-round of the draft to use as the trigger for thoughts/notes.
*Thank you to everyone who attended the video stream – it’s on-demand for those who’d like to watch/listen. We do live stream Round 2 tonight.
-- The Jaguars start us off by taking Travon Walker. When the Vegas odds started breaking this way super-strong the last 48 hours or so, the Jags’ leakers had fully leaked this reality.
The Jags get Walker at #1 and then later traded up for Devin Lloyd at #27. ‘Doug Pederson is going to go offense in the draft!’ theories didn’t really work out here. One of the most despised, ridiculous NFL GMs is in charge of the arguably the most ridiculous NFL franchise…one that SHOULD be strong, a desired place for players to go…but isn’t.
It’s a solid enough start to their draft, but this is assuming Walker becomes some version of Micah Parsons they hope for…which, by the laws of universe, this being ‘Jacksonville’ means that this somehow won’t work as hoped…if this fails then it means that there is a Walker issue (as his tape and output shows too often)…and this will be another high hopes/failed draft by the NFL runt franchise, the Jaguars.
Regardless, it’s a smart move in this draft – you go for the huge upside and high-end athleticism and if it fails, it fails. Only if this fails, Trent Baalke is done in the NFL for good.
-- At #2, the Detroit Lions then go with the guy everyone pegged to them as a ‘spiritual fit’ – Aidan Hutchinson, a solid pick. But then they spiced things up with trading up to get Jameson Williams at #12.
Hutchinson + Dan Campbell you could see from a mile away.
Jameson + Dan Campbell, I saw in a frozen hell.
It’s a great move when you consider the night was (and suddenly a league is) ruled by WIDE RECEIVERS, not QBs…so, with Williams possibly the most talented WR in this draft – this ends up being one of the better moves of the night one.
I just didn’t think the Lions needed/wanted a WR, but after that notion being wrong…I sit back and thought it’s a great move.
And it’s no help to the Amon-Ra St. Brown FF story.
And it’s a big help to the Jared Goff story.
Lions fans…you’re about on the verge of ‘hope’…real hope, more than the Jaguars. Your GM might be one of the better ones in the league (and what he paid to move up for Jameson wasn’t much at all, it was a brilliant trade).
-- I was mildly shocked at #3 with Houston taking Derek Stingley.
Shocked…because I didn’t see Houston going corner with all the top OLs available at their fingertips.
Shocked…because no one in the world could look at the tape and do the character research and with Ahmad Gardner available…choose Stingley. The Texans seem hellbent on keeping this franchise destroyed. Having two picks in the 1st-round and ending up with Stingley & Kenyon Green when they could’ve had Gardner and Trevor Penning or Zion Johnson – it’s going to go down as a horrific moment of wasted opportunity for a franchise leading the league in horrific moments, suddenly.
-- I will agree with the mainstream, the Jets had the best draft of Round One…and are likely headed to a top draft ranking/rating overall.
The Jets were on the verge of something special but fumbled one of their three picks.
First, #4 taking Ahmad Gardner – he was our top player in the draft, by a mile. Instant impact player. The Jets may ‘win’ the 2022 NFL Draft just with this pick alone.
They traded up to #10 and could’ve really been turning a corner had they taken a shot on Jordan Davis or added any of the top OLs available, instead they get generically fine/solid WR Garrett Wilson. Wilson is fine, but there was such much else out there to chase besides a WR. It didn’t kill them, but such a missed opportunity at ‘special’ in this first round.
Later, at #26, they traded up for falling Jermaine Johnson…one of the smartest moves in the 2nd-half of the 1st-round.
The Jets have taken over my ‘deep sleeper’ franchise love, moving ahead of the Giants.
-- Speaking of the Giants…
At #5, they take one of my least favorite top prospects of 2022, Mr. Thibodeaux. The Jets got as good/a better edge rusher at #26 with Jermaine Johnson.
A few picks later, the Giants nabbed Evan Neal…the one-time consensus #1 overall. He’s a fine pick. This helps NYG. Now, all they need is a QB…
-- Carolina, in a mild shock, bypasses Kenny Pickett and takes (arguably) the best OL prospect in the draft at #6 – Ikem Ekwonu.
NYG with Neal…and CAR with Ekwonu…very good picks, but with arguably the two worst Week 1 starting QBs at the helm; it doesn’t matter much for 2022.
-- At #8, the Falcons take Drake London…who immediately becomes a #1 WR by the lack of any other option to consider. Good for London’s FF/Dynasty Rookie Draft case…except, as it stands today…he’s going to draw #1 coverage from CBs right away.
This helps Kyle Pitts get some heat taken off him, but the Falcons need to add more firepower to free up Pitts even more.
-- At #9, Seattle…after gutting their franchise of its heart and soul players…looking to rebuild their roster and faith with their fanbase, they take an OK/somewhat sketchy offensive lineman (Charles Cross). Not going to win any fans back/or convert new ones with this pick.
Seattle is destroying themselves by riding with Pete Carroll instead of Russell Wilson, and I’ve got my popcorn ready to sit back and watch the building burn to the ground. Cross at #9, is another log on the fire.
-- The Saints moved up to #11…after having made big moves with Philly earlier…and after all the draft capital they spilled to get to #11, they take a generically OK WR Chris Olave.
The Saints think they are contenders for some reason, but they are just slowly falling apart/fading away.
Later, they did land Trevor Penning…which is a great pick/value.
The Saints are on the edge of breaking good…or ‘Breaking Bad’. Some decent young talent. A nice O-Line. But arguably the worst starting QB in the league for Week 1 and their long time/esteemed head coach that built them…he just up and left, a serious vote of no confidence. The Saints’ franchise seems in peril, but they have enough talent where it might not be totally obvious it’s in a rotting state in 2022. If they had a real QB then things would look so much brighter.
-- At #13, the Eagles trade up a little to land ‘freak’ DT Jordan Davis. Davis is what the draft is about – taking a shot at a player that could be legendary. Maybe Davis is just ‘good measurables’ and goes on to have a plausible NFL career like a Dontari Poe, but maybe he’s got an upside to be unleashed with his freakish athleticism. Solid move by Philly to go take a look.
-- And then at #14, we have the team falling apart about as fast as a team can – the Baltimore Ravens.
We get two moves by them mid-1st-round, which gives a glimpse into the chaos…
1) They select highly overrated Kyle Hamilton at #14…arguably the single worst player selected in the 1st-round…definitely the worst of the first half of the 1st-round.
2) They traded Marquise Brown to Arizona. I don’t have any issue with that move, I think Brown needed to go…and they found a sucker (Arizona) to take it (because Marquise Brown is a head case, and an injury problem…who is going to be a pill to deal with next year when he’ll want a mega deal).
But this move is a shot across the Lamar Jackson bow in a bigger picture sense -- LJax is a guy who (oddly) won’t work out a deal with the Ravens, and now Baltimore just made it 2x more difficult to deal with Lamar…trading his BFF away. If the Ravens deal Lamar, then I’ll give them credit…it’s what they need to do, rip the band aid off and start the rebuild.
3) With the pick acquired from Arizona, at #25…Baltimore takes a solid center prospect, Tyler Linderbaum. Some say Linderbaum is the top center in the draft…others are seeing some problems. If Linderbaum flops, then this 2022 NFL Draft has a chance to be the Ravens with the lowest rated draft of the year, when we look back over time.
The Steelers, the Browns, and the Ravens are gifting the Bengals AFC North dominance by slowly or speedily imploding their franchises within.
-- Arizona acquires Marquise Brown…I get this for Arizona too, for the moment…but then there will be issues.
Brown is a BFF WR of Kyler’s going back to Oklahoma. Just like this was spitting in the face of Lamar…it’s a fruit basket of love sent to Kyler. This lets us know Kyler is staying in Arizona – the Cardinals are doing everything around Kyler to make him happy, the final act being the mega contract to happen soon enough.
I wouldn’t want to build a franchise on Kyler-Brown, but for Fantasy 2022…it’s a good thing…as Brown builds his case for big money ahead. But if Arizona gives him a big deal (early) this offseason, then I’d be less 2022-enthused. Brown is a moron…as is Kyler…in personality, locker room/off the field. I fear what will happen when the two of them are paired and paid mega money.
Baltimore made a very smart move here…dumping Brown ahead of the diva problems. Just now they have invoked the wrath of Lamar…and maybe they wanted to.
Rondale Moore = R.I.P…his FF value.
DeAndre Hopkins is a WR2.
Rashod Bateman suddenly perks up, and Devin Duvernay gets a little life. And if Baltimore gets a passing QB in a possibly ugly Lamar divorce this offseason…then Bateman-Duvernay looks even better.
-- For some reason, Washington maneuvered around in the draft and then took Jahan Dotson…which is curious given that WR is not a big need, on the surface. They already have money into Curtis Samuel…a better Jahan Dotson. I like Dotson, but this is an odd fit right now. It certainly didn’t help Dotson’s FF outlook – unless this was a precursor to trading Terry McLaurin, which didn’t happen last night…so I’d guess it wasn’t because of that.
-- Picks #7-16 saw eight of 10 picks have some kind of trade linked to them (from the past or on draft day). #17 LAC just sat there, once again, made their pick…letting the talent fall to them…drafting talented, multi-faceted Zion Johnson.
The elite NFL QBs are Mahomes, Burrow, Herbert, Allen, Brady, Rodgers…in whatever order you want to put them. In 2021, the Chargers put the most money and effort into building their O-Line to protect said investment of this entire group of teams with elite QBs. In the 2022 NFL Draft, only the Chargers drafted an O-Lineman 1st-round among them.
The Chargers are the model for management focus on protecting the top asset…and if it doesn’t work (whatever that is defined as), if the Chargers don’t pass the Chiefs and every other AFC team to become dominant – then I’m not going to give O-Line the importance I have for years now. Burrow almost won a Super Bowl with no O-Line…so the ground is quaking on just HOW important the O-Line is.
Quarterback is everything. Elite quarterback…that is. Protecting him his probably the 2nd-most important team building thing…and LAC is better at it than anyone in the NFLK the past two years.
-- The wide receiver frenzy really hit a mass hysteria point when the Titans dumped A.J. Brown to the Eagles and acquired the #18 pick as part of the deal.
So many narratives playing out here…
1) Old school defensive coaches are not going to let a WR run their franchise. So, I wonder if Terry McLaurin (Ron Rivera) and D.K. Metcalf (Pete Carroll) and Diontae Johnson (Tomlin) are next out the door?
Kyle Shanahan is an old-school (soul) offensive coach, not defense, but he has learned his craft from Bill Belichick…so, you see what Belichick has done – he does not bend to players often, and trades them away without blinking. I think Deebo will be going in a trade soon as well. In the end, I don’t think Shanahan wants to yield to Deebo acting a fool and getting what he wants.
2) Like I’ve been saying…the Eagles can’t attract a WR to come willingly, so they were gonna have to buy one – and they did. Northeast/Midwest teams are going to have to overpay for WRs…which is sexy for FF and NFL hot stove, but not good for an NFL business.
The Titans deal away AJB, and draft Treylon Burks in his place. I don’t think Burks is the perfect Brown replacement stylistically, but for the cost it’s close enough.
A.J. Brown to Philly is not amazing for his FF outlook on the surface…he’s going to a low volume passing game with DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert there. It FF-hurts all of them, in some way. Great weapons collection…but bad news for predictability/reliability out of any of them for FF.
-- The Steelers stay put in the draft and take Kenny Pickett…local guy, the Big Ben replacement. It will be assumed that he’ll start Week 1 over Mitch Trubisky, and because Pickett is a rookie…there will be some excitement for it, and thus this helps the value of Diontae Johnson hold up – of which we believe you should be Dynasty sellers of DJ. ‘Sell high’ not ‘sell recklessly’.
More detail on the Dontae overview, on what to do with him in a Dynasty trade, coming in early May…once we’re past the NFL Draft/Dynasty Rookie Draft initial rankings.
-- Green Bay had two cracks to take at least one WR…they instead took Georgia Bulldog defenders at #22 (Quay Walker) and #28 (Devonte Wyatt). Whether it was the right NFL thing to do or not…it’s still a slap in the face to the one last year (likely) GB has with Rodgers. UNLESS they are planning to overrated/overpay for one of the McLaurin-Deebo-Metcalf group, but you’d think if that were happening that it would have gone down day one of the draft.
I almost wonder if Green Bay should just trade Rodgers now instead of wasting any more time. Send him to SF for Deebo and Lance in a bigger package deal?
-- The Bengals #1 priority should have been to further protect Joe Burrow…so, logically, they took a versatile, slightly undersized safety (Dax Hill).
-- The Vikings have a real chance to jump in front of Green Bay in the NFC North, now that they’ve rid themselves of Mike Zimmer and awful Rick Spielman (the Spielman’s are NFC North death). Their new GM seems pretty impressive, on the surface, but I was waiting to see how he’d do in free agency and the NFL Draft.
Thumbs up so far…he traded back to acquire more assets and ended up getting a top safety in Lewis Cine at pick #32…the Vikings need to build a defensive secondary on the fly to try and get past Green Bay in 2022, and this is a decent start.
-- With so many teams making trades to acquire a wide receiver or moving up in the draft to take one…Bill Belichick did his normal trade down – not getting into the fray, and then was the one guy who took a player that NO ONE expected to go in the 1st-round. Kudos to Belichick, he’s about the only guy in the NFL who does not fear doing what he wants when he wants in the draft.
The other 31 picks were pretty much guys everyone had as 1st-round players – but no one had OG Cole Strange as a likely 1st-rounder. You have to admire Belichick.
I thought Bill Belichick was also setting the anti-big money WR trend…but that’s necessarily true.
I forgot he traded for DeVante Parker…$6.0M due in 2022.
Did you realize he owes Nelson Agholor $14.9M in 2022?
Kendrick Bourne costs $6.4M in 2022.
Jakobi Meyers isn’t totally cheap at $4.0M.
$31.3M due for these four WRs total…a group no one is all that impressed with.
Live streaming draft coverage tonight around 6:45pmET start for a 7pm draft day two kickoff. See you there or on-demand after.
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Ross Jacobs (CFM) 6.0 *FINAL (Huddle Report)
New
April 28, 2022
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Ross Jacobs (CFM) 6.0 *FINAL (Huddle Report)
Ross Jacobs – College Football Metrics
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: EDGE Travon Walker, Georgia
2. Detroit Lions: EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
3. Houston Texans: CB Derek Stingley, LSU
4. New York Jets: Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
5. New York Giants: OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
6. Carolina Panthers: OT Ikem Ekwonu, NC State
7. New York Giants: CB Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
8. Atlanta Falcons: WR Drake London, USC
9. Seattle Seahawks: OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
10. New York Jets: WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
11. Washington Commanders: LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
12. Minnesota Vikings: S Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
13. Houston Texans: EDGE Jermaine Johnson, Florida State
14. Baltimore Ravens: OT Evan Neal, Alabama
15. Philadelphia Eagles: WR Jameson Williams, Alabama
16. New Orleans Saints: WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
17. Los Angeles Chargers: LB Quay Walker, Georgia
18. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
19. New Orleans Saints: QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Malik Willis, Liberty
21. New England Patriots: S Dax Hill, Michigan
22. Green Bay Packers: DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
23. Arizona Cardinals: DT Logan Hall, Houston
24. Dallas Cowboys: OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa
25. Buffalo Bills: CB Kyler Gordon, Washington
26. Tennessee Titans: OG: Zion Johnson, Boston College
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: OG Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
28. Green Bay Packers: WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas
29. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida
30. Kansas City Chiefs: EDGE David Ojabo, Michigan
31. Cincinnati Bengals: DT Travis Jones, Connecticut
32. Detroit Lions: S Lewis Cine, Georgia
2022 NFL Draft Top 100 Board by Ross Jacobs (CFM) *FINAL for Huddle Report
New
April 27, 2022
2022 NFL Draft Top 100 Board by Ross Jacobs (CFM) *FINAL for Huddle Report
1. Travon Walker, Georgia
2. Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
3. Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
4. Evan Neal, Alabama
5. Ikem Ekwonu, North Carolina State
6. Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
7. Derek Stingley, Louisiana State
8. Jermaine Johnson, Florida State
9. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
10. Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
11. Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
12. Devin Lloyd, Utah
13. Charles Cross, Mississippi State
14. Jameson Williams, Alabama
15. Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
16. Jordan Davis, Georgia
17. Drake London, Southern California
18. George Karlaftis, Purdue
19. Chris Olave, Ohio State
20. Malik Willis, Liberty
21. Zion Johnson, Boston College
22. Trent McDuffie, Washington
23. Daxton Hill, Michigan
24. Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
25. Treylon Burks, Arkansas
26. Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati
27. Boye Mafe, Minnesota
28. Logan Hall, Houston
29. Travis Jones, Connecticut
30. Kyler Gordon, Washington
31. Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
32. Jahan Dotson, Penn State
33. Quay Walker, Georgia
34. Kaiir Elam, Florida
35. Lewis Cine, Georgia
36. Jalen Pitre, Baylor
37. DeMarvin Leal, Texas A&M
38. Christian Watson, North Dakota State
39. Trey McBride, Colorado State
40. Bernhard Raimann, Central Michigan
41. Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa
42. Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State
43. Christian Harris, Alabama
44. Andrew Booth, Clemson
45. Jaquan Brisker, Penn State
46. David Ojabo, Michigan
47. Breece Hall, Iowa State
48. Tyler Smith, Tulsa
49. Matt Corral, Mississippi
50. Roger McCreary, Auburn
51. Skyy Moore, Western Michigan
52. Sam Howell, North Carolina
53. Drake Jackson, Southern California
54. Nicholas Petit-Frere, Ohio State
55. Alec Pierce, Cincinnati
56. Josh Paschal, Kentucky
57. Chad Muma, Wyoming
58. Kenneth Walker, Michigan State
59. Nakobe Dean, Georgia
60. Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma
61. John Metchie, Alabama
62. Abraham Lucas, Washington State
63. Channing Tindall, Georgia
64. Leo Chenal, Wisconsin
65. Phidarian Mathis, Alabama
66. Greg Dulcich, UCLA
67. Nik Bonitto, Oklahoma
68. Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M
69. George Pickens, Georgia
70. Nick Cross, Maryland
71. Jeremy Ruckert, Ohio State
72. Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama
73. Cole Strange, Chattanooga
74. Troy Andersen, Montana State
75. James Cook, Georgia
76. Cam Jurgens, Nebraska
77. Bryan Cook, Cincinnati
78. Brian Robinson, Alabama
79. Sean Rhyan, UCLA
80. Cade Otton, Washington
81. Jelani Woods, Virginia
82. Rasheed Walker, Penn State
83. Zyon McCollum, Sam Houston State
84. Terrel Bernard, Baylor
85. Marcus Jones, Houston
86. Joshua Ezeudu, North Carolina
87. DeAngelo Malone, Western Kentucky
88. Luke Goedeke, Central Michigan
89. JT Woods, Baylor
90. Darian Kinnard, Kentucky
91. Dameon Pierce, Florida
92. Danny Gray, SMU
93. Damarri Mathis, Pittsburgh
94. Brandon Smith, Penn State
95. Tyquan Thornton, Baylor
96. Jalyn Armour-Davis, Alabama
97. Eyioma Uwazurike, Iowa State
98. Micheal Clemons, Texas A&M
99. Malcolm Rodriguez, Oklahoma State
100. Luke Fortner, Kentucky
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM) v 6.0 FINAL (Huddle Report)
New
April 27, 2022
The following is the Xavier Cromartie - College Football Metrics FINAL 2022 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft for entry into The Huddle Report’s mock draft scoring:
2022 NFL Mock Draft by Xavier Cromartie (CFM) 27 Apr 2022 v 6.0 FINAL
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: ED Travon Walker (Georgia)* (+) 2
Top 100 picks: 1, 33, 65, 70
Top needs: ED, LB, G, C
The pick: It's all or nothing with this pick.
----------------------------
2. Detroit Lions: ED Aidan Hutchinson (Michigan) (-) 1
Top 100 picks: 2, 32, 34, 66, 97
Top needs: QB, ED, WR, LB, S
The pick: The Lions take the local player.
----------------------------
3. Houston Texans: OT Ikem Ekwonu (North Carolina State)* (+) 5
Top 100 picks: 3, 13, 37, 68, 80
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, RB
The pick: Evan Neal also makes a lot of sense but comes with more risk.
----------------------------
4. New York Jets: CB Ahmad Gardner (Cincinnati)* (+) 10
Top 100 picks: 4, 10, 35, 38, 69
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, LB
The pick: It's getting Saucy in Jersey.
----------------------------
5. New York Giants: OT Evan Neal (Alabama)* (-) 3
Top 100 picks: 5, 7, 36, 67, 81
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, LB, S
The pick: The Giants seem to be hoping for Neal or Cross. Daboll was recently with Alabama.
----------------------------
6. Carolina Panthers: OT Charles Cross (Mississippi State)* (+) 7
Top 100 picks: 6
Top needs: LT
The pick: Rather than reach for QB, the Panthers get a much-needed LT.
----------------------------
7. New York Giants (via CHI): CB Derek Stingley (Louisiana State)* (+) 12
Top 100 picks: 5, 7, 36, 67, 81
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, LB, S
The pick: Stingley's upside puts him in the top 10.
----------------------------
8. Atlanta Falcons: WR Garrett Wilson (Ohio State)* (+) 11
Top 100 picks: 8, 43, 58, 74, 82
Top needs: QB, ED, WR, LB, RB
The pick: It's a deep edge class. WR falls off quicker. They have to get a star WR. QB in R2.
----------------------------
9. Seattle Seahawks (via DEN): OT Trevor Penning (Northern Iowa) (+) 17
Top 100 picks: 9, 40, 41, 72
Top needs: QB, ED, LT, CB
The pick: They need two starting OTs more than any team in the league.
----------------------------
10. New York Jets (via SEA): ED Jermaine Johnson (Florida State) (-) 9
Top 100 picks: 4, 10, 35, 38, 69
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, LB
The pick: The Jets evidently prefer Johnson over Thibodeaux.
----------------------------
11. Washington: S Kyle Hamilton (Notre Dame)* (+) 18
Top 100 picks: 11, 47
Top needs: WR, S
The pick: Hamilton is a perfect scheme fit for the S/LB hybrid position in Washington's defense.
----------------------------
12. Minnesota Vikings: CB Trent McDuffie (Washington)* (+) 23
Top 100 picks: 12, 46, 77
Top needs: CB, S, TE
The pick: The Stingley dream is probably dead without a trade-up. McDuffie is next best, likely after a trade down into the teens.
----------------------------
13. Houston Texans (via CLE): WR Drake London (Southern California)* 13
Top 100 picks: 3, 13, 37, 68, 80
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, WR, RB
The pick: London as a big slot would help Mills.
----------------------------
14. Baltimore Ravens: ED Kayvon Thibodeaux (Oregon)* (-) 4
Top 100 picks: 14, 45, 76, 100
Top needs: ED, RT, CB, LB
The pick: The Ravens laugh as the best player in the draft falls into their lap.
----------------------------
15. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA): DT Jordan Davis (Georgia) 15
Top 100 picks: 15, 18, 51, 83
Top needs: CB, WR, DT, S
The pick: Davis controls the interior and frees up how other defenders can be utilized.
----------------------------
16. New Orleans Saints (via PHI/IND): WR Chris Olave (Ohio State) (+) 22
Top 100 picks: 16, 19, 49, 98
Top needs: QB, LT, WR, S
The pick: The Saints have done well drafting Ohio State players.
----------------------------
17. Los Angeles Chargers: LB Devin Lloyd (Utah) (-) 14
Top 100 picks: 17, 79
Top needs: RT, LB
The pick: With the top OTs gone, the Chargers fill their other major need.
----------------------------
18. Philadelphia Eagles (via NO): WR Jameson Williams (Alabama)* (-) 16
Top 100 picks: 15, 18, 51, 83
Top needs: CB, WR, DT, S
The pick: They could be looking at a trade up to that #12 spot to secure Williams.
----------------------------
19. Carolina Panthers (projected trade w/NO via PHI): QB Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh) (-) 6
Top 100 picks: 16, 19, 49, 98
Top needs (NO): QB, LT, WR, S
The pick: I'm hedging. I project the Panthers to trade down or trade future picks to come back into R1 and get Pickett.
----------------------------
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Malik Willis (Liberty) (-) 8
Top 100 picks: 20, 52, 84
Top needs: QB, WR, DT
The pick: I think they could move up (slightly) to make this pick or consider Desmond Ridder as a backup plan.
----------------------------
21. New England Patriots: LB Quay Walker (Georgia) (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 21, 54, 85
Top needs: CB, LB, G
The pick: The Patriots prefer big LBs and trust the Georgia program.
----------------------------
22. Green Bay Packers (via LV): WR Treylon Burks (Arkansas)* (+) 24
Top 100 picks: 22, 28, 53, 59, 92
Top needs: ED, WR, LB, DT, TE
The pick: Is Burks a clean fit? Beggars can't be choosers.
----------------------------
23. Arizona Cardinals: WR Jahan Dotson (Penn State) (+) 29
Top 100 picks: 23, 55, 87
Top needs: ED, CB, WR
The pick: Dotson has played mostly at outside WR.
----------------------------
24. Dallas Cowboys: G Kenyon Green (Texas A&M)* (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 24, 56, 88
Top needs: ED, LB, G
The pick: O-line has always been a priority for the Cowboys.
----------------------------
25. Buffalo Bills: RB Breece Hall (Iowa State)* (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 25, 57, 89
Top needs: CB, RB, G
The pick: The CBs here are not the Bills' type. The top RBs won't get to pick 57. Hall offers explosiveness lacking from their current RBs.
----------------------------
26. Tennessee Titans: OT Tyler Smith (Tulsa)* 26
Top 100 picks: 26, 90
Top needs: RT, RB
The pick: There is an obvious need at RT and no other good option.
----------------------------
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: G Zion Johnson (Boston College) 27
Top 100 picks: 27, 60, 91
Top needs: DT, TE, G
The pick: The Bucs have to get a guard to replace Ali Marpet.
----------------------------
28. Green Bay Packers: DT Logan Hall (Houston) (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 22, 28, 53, 59, 92
Top needs: ED, WR, LB, DT, TE
The pick: Everyone is looking for interior pass rush.
----------------------------
29. Kansas City Chiefs (via MIA/SF): ED Boye Mafe (Minnesota) (+) NR
Top 100 picks: 29, 30, 50, 62, 94
Top needs: ED, CB, WR, S, RB
The pick: They desperately need an edge. Mafe has upside.
----------------------------
30. Kansas City Chiefs: CB Kyler Gordon (Washington)* (-) 25
Top 100 picks: 29, 30, 50, 62, 94
Top needs: ED, CB, WR, S, RB
The pick: The Chiefs run a lot of dime (6 DBs). Speedy WRs will be there in round 2.
----------------------------
31. Cincinnati Bengals: CB Kaiir Elam (Florida)* 31
Top 100 picks: 31, 63, 95
Top needs: CB, DT, TE
The pick: Elam replaces Eli Apple.
----------------------------
32. Detroit Lions (via LAR): S Lewis Cine (Georgia)* (-) 30
Top 100 picks: 2, 32, 34, 66, 97
Top needs: QB, ED, WR, LB, S
The pick: DeShon Elliott's deal indicates they don't think much of him.
Archived mock drafts:
2021: 52
2020: 43
2019: 37
2018: 40
2017: 37
2016: 37
2015: 48
5-Year Average = 41.8
**College Football Metrics 2022…new season sign ups have begun**
The new season of CFM will be starting up in January, as always. A little different schedule this year as the NFL extended their season by a week and the Senior Bowl was bumped back a week as well. We should have a Senior Bowl, NFL Combine…it looks like it will be a normal scouting year!
The NFL Draft, Dynasty Rookie Draft, and regular season ahead rookie analysis all gets started through CFM in January with our usual season starter -- the past two years/2020-2021 Mock Rookie Draft re-do, along with in-depth Senior Bowl analysis, and full QB scouting reports and much more as we build towards the NFL Combine and all the other positional scouting reports. Football study never ends…
Thank you for your support of CFM for the past decade now…wow, time flies.
.
.