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2016 DE Prospect Grades (FINAL)

Date:
April 24, 2016

Note: Some of these DE prospects, especially the bigger name ones with weaker ratings for us here – they may be higher rated as DT prospects. Check on them on that ranking board.

 

Notes from version 2.0...

 -- I can already tell you that the team that will get an ‘A’ on draft day, for round one, is the team that reaches up and takes Emmanuel Ogbah…eschewing all the media second-round projections. I would almost guarantee Ogbah is going in the first-round.

 -- I’m warming up to Joey Bosa. I can see his athleticism on tape. What I don’t get is why his output, while rushing mostly from the left side/the easier side, was so weak for a supposed star on a loaded defensive line.

 -- We’re still not seeing what others do on Kamalei Correa. Some people are out of their minds on him…I don’t see it. 

 

The prospect we’re most likely wrong about: Bronson Kaufusi, BYU

He has all the size you want, mixed with nice measurables…but his tape shows a bigger, more awkward pass-rusher who might get blown out at the next level.

 

The prospect below a 6.0 rating that could become a star: Drew Ott, Iowa

Ott could be much better than this – much, much better. After four games in 2015, Ott tore up his knee and was lost for the rest of the season. Take his four games of output, and extrapolate it into a 13-game season, and it would look like: 36 tackles, 24.4 TFLs, 16.1 sacks, and 9.8 forced fumbles.

There are no measurables because Ott hasn’t been able to workout, so we’re flying a little blind here. The tape says it could be a little more ‘good fortune’ than pure, unbridled pass-rush dominance. However, Ott put up nice numbers in 2014 as well (12 TFLs, 8.0 sacks). He intrigues me.

 

Notes from version 1.0...

 -- This DE class is all about Emmanuel Ogbah, and then a big drop-off to everyone else. How Ogbah is not a top 5-10 prospect in this draft is a total mystery to me. There will probably be three DE prospects taken ahead of him…maybe four (not counting Buckner, who we see as a DT).

 -- The #2 to #7 ranked DE prospects below…to me there is a case for any one of them to be the #2 best DE prospect.

 -- I’m warming up to Joey Bosa. I see why everyone is excited – when I did more OT prospect study, I saw Bosa against Jack Conklin, Jason Spriggs, and Ronnie Stanley…Bosa is so fluid and graceful for a DE. However, he also doesn’t finish. He has the moves, but he doesn’t have something…he’s missing something. An ‘it’ factor; I’m not sure what it is, but he is lacking in results.

 -- I like Victor Ochi, but he may be too small to become an impact starter as a DE, and then too slow to be an effective OLB in the NFL. He may get caught as a man without a true home in the NFL.

 -- I like Carl Nassib, but he scares me that he won’t translate to the NFL as well. He is a quality kid, and a tireless worker…he deserves to make it, but I’m nervous he was a great college player more than terrific pro prospect. I hope I am wrong. 

 -- Ronald Blair was so good on tape, and so weak with his measurables…terrible NFL Combine.

 -- Jihad Ward needs to be seen as a DT prospect. He’ll be on our next DT rank. He wasn’t on the original.

View FULL table in a separate browser >>>

Note: Some of these DE prospects, especially the bigger name ones with weaker ratings for us here – they may be higher rated as DT prospects. Check on them on that ranking board.

 

Notes from version 2.0...

 -- I can already tell you that the team that will get an ‘A’ on draft day, for round one, is the team that reaches up and takes Emmanuel Ogbah…eschewing all the media second-round projections. I would almost guarantee Ogbah is going in the first-round.

 -- I’m warming up to Joey Bosa. I can see his athleticism on tape. What I don’t get is why his output, while rushing mostly from the left side/the easier side, was so weak for a supposed star on a loaded defensive line.

 -- We’re still not seeing what others do on Kamalei Correa. Some people are out of their minds on him…I don’t see it. 

 

The prospect we’re most likely wrong about: Bronson Kaufusi, BYU

He has all the size you want, mixed with nice measurables…but his tape shows a bigger, more awkward pass-rusher who might get blown out at the next level.

 

The prospect below a 6.0 rating that could become a star: Drew Ott, Iowa

Ott could be much better than this – much, much better. After four games in 2015, Ott tore up his knee and was lost for the rest of the season. Take his four games of output, and extrapolate it into a 13-game season, and it would look like: 36 tackles, 24.4 TFLs, 16.1 sacks, and 9.8 forced fumbles.

There are no measurables because Ott hasn’t been able to workout, so we’re flying a little blind here. The tape says it could be a little more ‘good fortune’ than pure, unbridled pass-rush dominance. However, Ott put up nice numbers in 2014 as well (12 TFLs, 8.0 sacks). He intrigues me.

 

Notes from version 1.0...

 -- This DE class is all about Emmanuel Ogbah, and then a big drop-off to everyone else. How Ogbah is not a top 5-10 prospect in this draft is a total mystery to me. There will probably be three DE prospects taken ahead of him…maybe four (not counting Buckner, who we see as a DT).

 -- The #2 to #7 ranked DE prospects below…to me there is a case for any one of them to be the #2 best DE prospect.

 -- I’m warming up to Joey Bosa. I see why everyone is excited – when I did more OT prospect study, I saw Bosa against Jack Conklin, Jason Spriggs, and Ronnie Stanley…Bosa is so fluid and graceful for a DE. However, he also doesn’t finish. He has the moves, but he doesn’t have something…he’s missing something. An ‘it’ factor; I’m not sure what it is, but he is lacking in results.

 -- I like Victor Ochi, but he may be too small to become an impact starter as a DE, and then too slow to be an effective OLB in the NFL. He may get caught as a man without a true home in the NFL.

 -- I like Carl Nassib, but he scares me that he won’t translate to the NFL as well. He is a quality kid, and a tireless worker…he deserves to make it, but I’m nervous he was a great college player more than terrific pro prospect. I hope I am wrong. 

 -- Ronald Blair was so good on tape, and so weak with his measurables…terrible NFL Combine.

 -- Jihad Ward needs to be seen as a DT prospect. He’ll be on our next DT rank. He wasn’t on the original.

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>