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2016 RB-p Prospect Grades (FINAL)

Date:
April 24, 2016

Notes from version 2.0...

 -- I wouldn’t take any of these guys in the first-round of the NFL Draft. At minimum, Ezekiel Elliott is going first-round. I wonder how much of the Elliott top 10 talk is a hoax? In the era of the depressed value RB…why anyone would take an average-good RB like Elliott in the top 10 is criminal.

 -- Dwayne Washington is the best of the 2.0 additions. He caught 25 passes for 315 yards and 3 TDs last season working as a 220+ pound RB. In his last five games, when given 10 or more carries…Washington has rushed for 100 or more yards four times. He also caught 5 passes for 131 yards and 2 TDs against Utah State this past season.

Washington is a converted WR to RB, and really has impressive tape. He plays RB like a WR…he’s not a natural RB, but when he gets some space – he’s gone. No one pulls away from defenders at RB in this draft like Washington. He registered a 4.48 40-time at his Pro Day, and a 6.85 three-cone with 23 reps on the bench.

He’s battled knee injuries, and jumped to the pros early. Our full report will be out on him soon.

 -- I’ll say it again…a fully healthy Brandon Wilds may be the most talented all-around RB in this draft.

 -- Darius Jackson may be the most gifted RB in this class…on paper. Well, him or OBJ’s cousin Terron Beckham.

 -- Penn State RB who barely ever saw a touch over four seasons, Brandon Johnson, has NFL starter size and measurables…4.43 40-time, 6.84 three-cone, 22 bench reps, 39.5” vertical, 6’2”/228…makes no sense – those are an NFL star’s size-athleticism numbers.

 

Notes after version 1.0...

 -- We’re 'chalk' at the top…Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry 1-2. I’m not overly excited about it, but they’ll be fine. C.J. Prosise was our #1 overall RB prospect for a moment early on, but the missing pieces of his NFL Combine data that came in at his Pro Day were a hot disaster. We’re seeing more of the issues with Prosise than the upside potential. I was drinking some Kool-Aid early, but not now.

 -- More ‘official’ Pro Day numbers on Jordan Howard just came in, and they weren’t all that wonderful either…but not far off what we projected.

 -- If I were assured he would never get hurt, Brandon Wilds would be my favorite RB prospect in this draft because of his receiver skills. He has underrated runner skills as well.

 

The prospect we’re most likely wrong about: Jordan Howard, Indiana

We have Howard graded as solid, serviceable with a slight upside…but he’s probably going to be one of two things: (1) A savvy runner who defies analytics, and becomes the best, most physical runner in this draft, or (2) He ends up a hot bust. Not athletic enough to matter much in the NFL.

 

The prospect below a 6.0 rating that could become a star: Terron Beckham, from parts unknown

This RB class is so god awful that ‘reaching’ is all we have. The best athlete among this group is OBJ’s relative, even though he’s never played college football, and may be certifiable as a human. One thing he is – an elite trained athlete.

 

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Notes from version 2.0...

 -- I wouldn’t take any of these guys in the first-round of the NFL Draft. At minimum, Ezekiel Elliott is going first-round. I wonder how much of the Elliott top 10 talk is a hoax? In the era of the depressed value RB…why anyone would take an average-good RB like Elliott in the top 10 is criminal.

 -- Dwayne Washington is the best of the 2.0 additions. He caught 25 passes for 315 yards and 3 TDs last season working as a 220+ pound RB. In his last five games, when given 10 or more carries…Washington has rushed for 100 or more yards four times. He also caught 5 passes for 131 yards and 2 TDs against Utah State this past season.

Washington is a converted WR to RB, and really has impressive tape. He plays RB like a WR…he’s not a natural RB, but when he gets some space – he’s gone. No one pulls away from defenders at RB in this draft like Washington. He registered a 4.48 40-time at his Pro Day, and a 6.85 three-cone with 23 reps on the bench.

He’s battled knee injuries, and jumped to the pros early. Our full report will be out on him soon.

 -- I’ll say it again…a fully healthy Brandon Wilds may be the most talented all-around RB in this draft.

 -- Darius Jackson may be the most gifted RB in this class…on paper. Well, him or OBJ’s cousin Terron Beckham.

 -- Penn State RB who barely ever saw a touch over four seasons, Brandon Johnson, has NFL starter size and measurables…4.43 40-time, 6.84 three-cone, 22 bench reps, 39.5” vertical, 6’2”/228…makes no sense – those are an NFL star’s size-athleticism numbers.

 

Notes after version 1.0...

 -- We’re 'chalk' at the top…Ezekiel Elliott and Derrick Henry 1-2. I’m not overly excited about it, but they’ll be fine. C.J. Prosise was our #1 overall RB prospect for a moment early on, but the missing pieces of his NFL Combine data that came in at his Pro Day were a hot disaster. We’re seeing more of the issues with Prosise than the upside potential. I was drinking some Kool-Aid early, but not now.

 -- More ‘official’ Pro Day numbers on Jordan Howard just came in, and they weren’t all that wonderful either…but not far off what we projected.

 -- If I were assured he would never get hurt, Brandon Wilds would be my favorite RB prospect in this draft because of his receiver skills. He has underrated runner skills as well.

 

The prospect we’re most likely wrong about: Jordan Howard, Indiana

We have Howard graded as solid, serviceable with a slight upside…but he’s probably going to be one of two things: (1) A savvy runner who defies analytics, and becomes the best, most physical runner in this draft, or (2) He ends up a hot bust. Not athletic enough to matter much in the NFL.

 

The prospect below a 6.0 rating that could become a star: Terron Beckham, from parts unknown

This RB class is so god awful that ‘reaching’ is all we have. The best athlete among this group is OBJ’s relative, even though he’s never played college football, and may be certifiable as a human. One thing he is – an elite trained athlete.

 

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics, and a football projections analyst and writer for Fantasy Football Metrics. 

Learn more about RC and the College Football Metrics system >>