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Brought to you by  - Total Football Advisors, LLC

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2018 Week 10 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Bills v. Jets

November 17, 2018 2:42 PM
November 17, 2018 4:25 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

The Buffalo Bills, God bless them, they took on the spirit of Ryan Fitzpatrick and went out and crushed the hapless NY Jets.

The Ryan Fitzpatrick offense is -- throw a bomb anytime you think you have 1-on-1 coverage. A marked change from ‘run every play’ the Bills have stuck themselves with too often. This game opened with a 40+ yard bomb by Matt Barkley to Robert Foster, and the next thing you know it’s 31-3 Bills at halftime, and it wasn’t that close.

The Bills deployed fake punts, an O-Lineman catching a TD pass, and several WR jet sweeps. The Jets countered that with Josh McCown as the living embodiment of a guy who thought he’d never play live action again and just wanted to collect his paycheck in peace…as Todd Bowles did his usual ‘stare emptily in outer space’ showing no human emotion or having contact with any humans.

The Jets fell to 3-7, losers of four in-a-row…and on their way to 4-12. If Todd Bowles was on the hot seat before, then this was likely state’s evidence for his execution. He’s done. The Jets are doomed for years as they’ve tied themselves to Sam Darnold, and he’s going to be a bigger failure than Jameis Winston…as I predicted from scouting Sam two years ago. I will be the only scout you know who was ‘right’ on Darnold and Winston before they played their final college season.

The Bills jump ahead of the Jets in the standings as they get to 3-7…on their way to 4-5 wins projected. The Bills are in a similar spot as the Jets…doomed for years by the fraud QB they chose as a ‘franchise’ guy. The AFC East continues to sacrifice itself in front of Bill Belichick in order for him to win more division titles in a row.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- If you want to sit on an RB who is on waivers in many people’s leagues but might be taking the lead role in another week or two – Elijah McGuire (6-30-0, 3-27-0/6) is that guy.

A lost season.

A young running back that they want to see if he can be a lead RB possibility.

An RB with everything to prove right here, right now.

A running back who the team believes in more than let’s say the Eagles and Josh Adams.

McGuire is no Josh Adams in talent, but EMG is capable in a Marlon Mack-type of way. I think he could be a shock starter for the Jets in 2019. Not guaranteeing it…just thinking it could happen a la Marlon Mack/2018.

If Josh Adams doesn’t get a real push this week, and you have Adams and/or Doug Martin holding down RB spots – you might want to ditch one of Adams-Martin after Week 11 games to sit on McGuire (in PPR) to see what develops.

I’m wondering McGuire won’t be the Marlon Mack of Weeks 13 or 14 through the end of the season? It’s something I’m watching/considering/sitting on in spots to see.

-- Zay Jones (8-93-1/11) had a wonderful game – scored a TD and dove short by a half-a-yard on another. With any QB play at all, Jones could be a WR2-3…with WR2 upside because he’s a talent. He’s just stuck in a bad situation.

Despite the situation, Jones has averaged 6.0 rec., (8.3 targets), 54.3 yards, 0.33 TDs per game the past three games…and, really, has been their #1 all season.

Robert Foster (3-105-0/4) had a big game right along with Zay…Foster caught two 40+ yard balls from Bark-magic. I’m not into Foster as a future fantasy item – whereas, I think Zay Jones could have been a star already if he were on Green Bay or Cleveland right now.

-- I like Quincy Enunwa (4-18-0/8) better than Zay Jones…better than 95%+ of the WRs in the NFL, on a talent basis…but, sadly, Q in stuck in a bad situation – one that won’t get any better anytime soon.

Sam Darnold does not open up the field and thus Enunwa has a lack space to work…and Darnold keeps missing him on medium-deep passes, because Darnold is terrible. On top of everything else, the coaching staff is about to change.

There’s hope for Enunwa, because he’s a great work horse that can thrive with simple targeting…but the Jets can’t even get that right, right now. For 2018…Enunwa is a random WR3 hopeful…more on the WR3.5 side of the ledger.

-- Chris Herndon (3-24-0/40 has FF-issues for all the reasons stated above on the Jets. I’m not a big believer in him, but he’s not a bust. The more I watch him I see a nice spark of athleticism…like a ‘C’ grade mover at TE more than the ‘D+’ I had in my mind coming into the season.

Herndon was injured last college season and didn’t participate in the NFL Combine so it was hard for me to get a great snapshot on his movement skills. He looks better the last few weeks. I’m not getting excited…just not totally dismissive now.

Jonnu Smith, for an example…way more impressive young, athletic TE rising up from the TE2-3 ranks.

-- Maybe I’ve been too dismissive of the Bills-DST.

I get that they have a good unit, but I have countered with the fact that their offense is so bad it destroys the DST hopes most/every game.

Looking closer…the Bills have been getting whacker…BY really good offenses. However, when they face mediocre or poor offenses – they tend to pounce. They held the Titans to 12 points, Texans to 20 (7 of the 20 on a pick six/defensive score), and the Jets to 10 here.

If all that’s true…Bortles-Osweiler-Darnold-Stafford Weeks 12-15 ‘ain’t so bad’.

I can’t play the Bills-DST with confidence because of their offense (constantly putting the defense in bad field position and time of possession)…but, what DSTs does anyone have confidence in anymore?

It’s a good schedule stretch ahead. Perhaps, they really are one of the best DSTs of the next few weeks. The Computer models think so.

-- Fantasy Playoff Notes for these two teams…

Week 14 Bills-DST vs. Jets may be a hot play…BUT Josh Allen will be back soon and that could take this from ‘really good’ to ‘OK/good’. Matt Barkley will not have a day like he had Week 10 ever again, so Barkley playing hurts too, I guess.

Not going to worry about the Bills for offense in the fantasy playoffs, because…who has Bills things they’re using?

Weeks 14-15-16 @BUF-HOU-GB…I don’t know what Jets thing you would using besides a prayer on Elijah McGuire. BUF-HOU are top 12 run defenses, so there’s that to contend with too…

Snap Counts of Interest:

32 = McGuire

19 = Powell

13 = Cannon

54 = Enunwa

50 = Kearse

23 = Rishard Matthews

62 = Zay Jones

37 = K Benjamin

33 = R Foster

31 = Pryor

07 = McKenzie


About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

Learn more about RC and the Fantasy Football Metrics system >>