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2018 Week 10 Dynasty-Fantasy Analysis: Redskins v. Bucs

Date:
November 16, 2018 1:09 PM
November 16, 2018 1:16 PM

*Pre-editor post (forgive any typos)

Tampa Bay had 509 yards of offense…and managed 3 points. That’s about the state of affairs of this game…criminal underperformance.

Washington gets the win but facing a Bucs defense that has been hemorrhaging yards and points, but Washington scored just 1 TD, kicked 3 FGs, and tallied 294 total yards. The Washington collapse, due to insurmountable O-Line injuries, is about to happen…they got a respite from a bad Bucs team here.

Washington is 6-3, and two games ahead in the NFC East. If they lose this week to Houston, I think that will be a domino effect to start a three-game losing streak and fall to 6-6…and either tied with Dallas for the division lead or both DAL-PHI will be a game behind with 4 games left to play.

We project Washington to 8-8, but 9-7 and the division title is there for the taking if they beat Houston this week. 8-8 might be plausible for a team to win the NFC East.

Tampa Bay could have been a playoff contender had they stuck with Ryan Fitzpatrick all the way through and kept some health on defense, but neither of those things panned out. The Bucs could have been alive and kicking had they won this winnable game -- but they didn’t. They are on their way to 5-11…and a firing of Dirk Koetter and a total rebuild in 2019, including a search for a new QB. As I have caterwauled abut for two+ years since they drafted Winston and elevated Koetter. I win.

Fantasy Player Notes…

-- My gut wanted to be mad at Ryan Fitzpatrick (29-41 for 406 yards, 0 TD/2 INT)…he’s been so good, and I picked them in the Blazing Five for this game, and I have some O.J. Howard and Mike Evans fantasy action…even pushed Adam Humphries for a one week need – and then just 3 points/no TD passes? 400+ yards passing but little to OJH or Evans but 102 yards to Jacquizz Rodgers?

I wanted to be mad…and went and looked for Fitzpatrick’s obvious crumbling play/stat lines, so that I could use math to humiliate him and run from Tampa Bay ahead.

I can’t.

Fitzpatrick has 6 starts…one of them against the Bears where he got killed and pulled for Jameis. Let’s ignore that game for a moment. He has five other starts…and he either has 4 TD passes or 400+ yards passing (or both) in every one of those starts.

This no TD pass game…his other starts: 4-4-3-0(CHI)-4 TD passes in a game. I’m going to destroy him because he had a ‘0’ here…but did throw for 400+ yards and completed 70.7% of his passes? It was just unfortunate things in this game…a couple missed throws that helped Fitz not get any TD passes. It was not lack of effort/plan or even a great Redskins defense. It just happened. Freak occurrence.

-- If you ‘buy’ that Fitzpatrick is fine/still being Fitzmagic, then…

O.J. Howard (1-15-0/2) isn’t dead. Just his stat line was. One of the best TEs over the past few weeks…and he gets 1 catch, 3 minutes into the game and none the next 57 minutes. We have to assume this is not normal (but possible).

This is life without Ertz-Kelce…sorry. You think your non-Ertz-Kelce TE is bad, everyone else thinks the same of theirs. All you can assume/hope for is a bounce back this week.

Mike Evans (3-51-0/6) should turn upwards. It’s so strange…Evans was a top 3 fantasy WR with Fitz earlier this season, then fell when Winston returned (which that’s been historical going back to 2017). When Fitz returned, I thought ‘game on’ with Evans – instead, he’s gone 2.0 rec., 33.5 yards, 0.0 TDs per game in Fitz’s latest two starts.

Fitzpatrick had Evans for a 40-yard TD here, Evans with 2+ steps streaking to the end zone, but Fitz under-threw it and the ball batted away. Ryan has been making those throws all season…he missed several in this game. I’m cautiously optimistic for Evans this week to get back to god-like.

-- Fitzpatrick and the Bucs’ main weapons having a bad/weak fantasy game…I could see that as a blip. The bad/weak game we should be worried about going forward, and I was the last few weeks (since the O-Line fell apart), is Adrian Peterson (19-68-0, 2-1-0/2).

People see AP and are like ‘it’s AP’…and see Doug Martin and go ‘Raiders suck, I’m dropping that guy’. I might say you’d rather have Doug Martin right now, for fantasy.

The last two games for AP, since the O-Line devastation: 14.0 carries, 42.5 yards rushing (3.0 ypc), 0.0 TDs per game. Facing HOU and PHI the next two weeks…the #6 and #7 best run defenses (by yds per gm allowed) YTD.

AP is a problem, and Chris Thompson would be capitalizing on all of this…except he has somewhere between 2 and 10 broken ribs. The CT sweet spot has been missed and AP is going to suffer.

-- Chris Godwin (7-103-0/7) was a winner this week and might have been a nice play Week 11…but he got hurt at the end of this game; limped off. He didn’t look good. I’m guessing he misses Week 11. A contact told me he was leaning that way as well from what he knows.

-- Jacquizz Rodgers (8-102-0/8) had 8 catches for 102 yards. He hadn’t had 8 catches his past 4 games or 100 yards receiving all year.

Is this an emerging trend or blip?

I’m wondering if defenses are playing so far ‘back’ to defend the Fitz air raid that underneath is all kinds of opportunity…thus the rise of Adam Humphries (2-53-0/3) last week and Jacquizz this week. Maybe? Hard to say because no trend is holding right now for Fitz/the Bucs since Fitzpatrick returned to starter…and it’s only been two full starts back.

-- Maurice Harris (5-52-0/5) has become the Redskins top target…for whatever that’s worth. Not a great passing game and Harris is big and slow. I’m not buying in. I own 0% shares of this stock.

-- Another dud from Jordan Reed (4-51-0/6). No TDs since Week 1. He’s had 55 or less yards in all but one game this season (65 for the high). He’s ice cold/FF-dead.

I just saw a note where he’s talking about pain in his foot still…a three-year saga with this issue/excuse/reality.

Time to call in the Priest and grab the towel to toss on any FF-hope here. The old regime fantasy TEs are dead/dying (Reed-Graham-Gronk)…we just have trouble letting go. I’ve been getting burned by Jimmy Graham ‘hopes’ on the reg for 2+ years it seems. I’ll learn someday…

-- The Washington-DST has allowed 17 or fewer points in four of their last 5 games. There’s that Weeks 14-16 NYG-JAX-TEN stretch ahead…that seems attractive, I think. Washington WILL be in the race, so they have to have those games. NYG may be going Kyle Lauletta by Week 14. It’s a solid play, not the best but solid…and only if Quinton Dunbar if healthy/playing.

Dunbar (and Norman) are key here. Missing one takes a ‘B’ play Weeks 14-16 to a ‘C+’ one.

Snap Counts of Interest:

33 = Barber

26 = Jacquizz

10 = Shaun Wilson

38 = Jordan Reed

27 = V Davis

26 = Sprinkle

IDPs…

43 = Nassib

33 = Whitehead

23 = Andrew Adams

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About R.C. Fischer

R.C. Fischer is a fantasy football player analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics and College Football Metrics. 

Email rc4metrics@gmail.com

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